Well I hope your standard for what constitutes a solid shot locking presence isn't Anthony Davis. Davis was one of the greatest college defensive big men and shot blocking big men in his generation, and may be the greatest shot blocker in the world today.
And and I wouldn't take much from all-star games, as there is little to no defense played by anyone. I know the Summit was more than that, but still it was one game.
Thats not to say that Turner may not be a better college shot blocker than Okafor. He may turn out to be. But Turner has a lot of work to do on his body. He's going to get pushed around a lot. Shot blocking isn't just about jumping high. In fact, oftentimes good shot blockers aren't great jumpers. Like Shelden Williams.
Like I say, Turner may be a great shot blocker in college if he is able to get to and hold his position. I'd love to have him on my team, for sure. But don't sell Jahlil's abilities short just yet.
“Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”
Tyus line: 10 points, 12 assists, 7 rebounds in only 22 minutes
Legit.
But aren't Battier and Hill the true outliers? How many freshmen are/were really ready to play Duke defense?
The other thing that spooked me is that Rodney seemed like a 3 on the team defense readiness scale. That was a big part of our problem -- our two best offensive players weren't great team defenders in the Duke system.
I'm not suggesting we should expect freshmen to play defense like Battier and GHill, either. I'm suggesting there's a range of possibilities and the "normal" thing to expect would be something towards the middle. Sheed was pretty good defensively as a freshman. So were Scheyer, Singler, and Kyrie pre-injury. (Kyrie gets knocked as a defender in the NBA, but at Duke he actually dominated touted seniors Jacob Pullen and Kalin Lucas on both ends.)
Freshmen that get big minutes at Duke don't usually display such a ridiculous gap between offensive and defensive abilities like Jabari did. Usually talent finds a way to express itself on both ends. For the freshmen that don't get big minutes, as a fanbase, we've just sort of assumed it's defense that's the problem. But a good chunk of the time, it's probably a mixture of both offensive and defensive struggles. (Which is fine for freshmen to experience.) And occasionally, you probably get someone like Matt Jones whose problems are almost entirely offensive as a freshman.
Paul Biancardi on Tyus, "Over a three-game span at McDonald's, Nike Hoop Summit and the Jordan Brand Classic, he combined for 28 assists and just six turnovers."
Yes I know it's in all star games.
Not to be a debbie-downer, but I'm gonna be a debbie-downer: Greg Paulus played in the 2005 McDonald's game (9 assists, 1 turnover) and the 2005 Nike Hoops Summit (10 assists, 2 turnovers). So he had 19 assists and just 3 turnovers in 2 all star game appearances. That obviously didn't translate to the next level.
That being said, I'm absolutely hoping that Tyus Jones isn't another Greg Paulus. Not that Paulus was a terrible player; he just wasn't nearly the PG we had hoped he'd be. We need Jones to be MUCH better than that.
Having followed recruiting gossip and watched the all star games:
If the Big (MT) wants to go pro after one year, he's probably going to want to be a starter and play starter's minutes. While he's routinely rated #2 in his class and to have a higher ceiling than Jahlil, Myles looked to me to be a guy with a world of talent but without the this-minute ability to function at the level of guys like Tyus, Justise, and Jahlil, much less an experienced player like Amile.
Aside from the allure of Austin (with local heroism, an unusually good returning team--for Texas, and Durant's ghost), Turner would likely not start at Duke. He'd be a great 6th man (or co-6th man along with Quinn), and stranger things could happen: maybe he could bump Amile out of the starting 5, and presumably they would play comparable minutes with Myles getting some of Marshall's center minutes when Jahlil is off the floor). Maybe we'd go 3 shortish and two tallish players (TJ, QC, RS, MT, and JO), but I'm assuming that with a great PG and great C, a big priority is a having a strong wing on the floor. Since Winslow has been so impressive, I just don't see how he doesn't start. If so, we are unlikely to keep 4 freshmen on the floor at the same time. If Myles wants to be featured and be a top 5 pick in 2015, his all star experience might have made him concerned that he is simply not as good as Jahlil and that a year of playing and practicing alongside him would only underscore that difference when it came time to the 2015 draft.
If he's worried about that comparison, Duke wouldn't be a great spot. OTOH, we'd have scouts at all of the competitive games, and he'd get 20" a game in which the other team simply couldn't key on him, and the NBA draft is based on potential, and so the scouts could grumble that he is being underutilized at Duke, but they'd still draft him in the top 3--and he'd have had a chance to practice for a year against our cluster of top-flight tall guys.
And after that? Just saying.
Paulus had the good fortune of being able to pass to one of the most prolific shooters in college basketball history as a freshman. That he only averaged 5.2 assists on the #1 team in the nation with two first-team All-Americans and an alley-oop machine is not overly impressive. Especially from the #1 PG in the class. The "led the ACC in assists" was entirely buoyed by having Redick and Williams as easy assists and by the ACC having a down year in terms of PG play overall. Bobby Frasor finished third that year, and a SG finished 5th. In any other year in the past decade, Paulus wouldn't have been close to the top spot in assists (this year - another down year for PG - would have been closest).
And after that, Paulus got progressively worse: 3.8 assists per game as a sophomore; 3.2 assists per game as a junior; moved off the PG and benched as a senior. So I don't think that folks are going to be pleased if Tyus Jones performs the way Paulus did.
My guess is he would start, at least he would if he's truly capable of being a one-and-done, top 5 pick, but he might not get much more than 20 or 25 mpg. Your point about having four freshman on the floor at the same time is a good one. I suspect Coach K would avoid that, but it would make the rotation a bit trickier to manage.
I agree that people would be disappointed if Tyus is no better than Greg Paulus was. But I think you're being a bit harsh on Greg. He was on the second-team All America freshman team. As a junior he made third-team All ACC. As a sophomore he played hurt most of the year but still managed 11.8 ppg, 3.8 apg, and shot 45% from three-point range. He was a pretty good player, despite not being an outstanding athlete.
All that said, Greg Paulus had major deficiencies on defense, but we don't know yet how Tyus will stack up on that end. I think Greg's biggest problem during his time at Duke was he didn't live up to the fans' expectations, and that wasn't really his fault.
Amen, brother (or sister), amen! and, for that matter, you can take out the name "Greg" and substitute "Casey Sanders," "Josh McRoberts," "Taymon Domzalski," or a bunch of other names. Some recruits do not develop to be as good as coaches or fans expect. It isn't their fault.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
Again, I credit Paulus' freshman year success to having Redick and Williams and to having a down year nationally for PG overall. And Paulus turned himself into a decent SG by his junior year. I agree he became a decent player; he just wasn't a decent PG. As a PG, his career had to be viewed as a disappointment by any reasonable expectation. When you're the #1 PG in your high school class and you then play so poorly at PG that you get benched (for a SG) by your senior year, I think it is fairly reasonable to say that you weren't as good as advertised.
I don't mean to bash Paulus. Like McRoberts, I think he was more limited than the recruiting "experts" realized. And I think he was misevaluated by almost everyone (like McRoberts). Clearly he wasn't as talented a PG as everyone (including our coaching staff) thought he was.
And that's my point; if Jones comes in, has a solid but unspectacular freshman year, then plays poorly enough at PG over the next two years that the staff has to redesign the offense to hide his limitations as a PG, and then ultimately bench him in favor of a SG at PG during his senior year, that will be a disappointment. That isn't to say it is Jones's fault (just like it wasn't McRoberts' fault or Paulus' fault). But it will be a disappointing result nonetheless.