The Jabari and Rodney prediction poll

[Kfanarmy]

Agreed.

Most probably saw this posted in the Rodney Hood draft vigil, but for anyone who missed it Adam Zagoria just reported that per a source Rodney Hood is certainly going pro. As always, I'll wait for Rodney, but if that is true I wish Rodney all the best. What a great Duke player in every sense. He'll do very well.

I believe this was originally reported on April 1st; was it not?

[Mike Corey]

As ever, expect this duo to go pro, and hope to be surprised when they announce.

[richardjackson199]

I believe this was originally reported on April 1st; was it not?

Now it's being reported on April 15 by Adam Zagoria. Doesn't sound like a joke to me:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...2014-nba-draft

[richardjackson199]

As ever, expect this duo to go pro, and hope to be surprised when they announce.

Mike are you sayin' there's a chance? More like 1 in a million? It was fun to imagine what next year's team could have been like with Jabari and/or Rodney. But I've given up hoping on this one. Airowe predicting Jabari goes pro after Jabari met with Coach K, Adam Zagoria's report today, NBA GM's now leaking that Jabari is talking to agents and going pro; the writing is on the wall - they're gone. I was trying to be as optimistic as possible, but I've seen how this goes too many times once the news leaks out.

It's all good, Duke has an exciting class coming in and we'll be good next year. We'll be very young and inexperienced for the most part, but talented. I wish Jabari & Rodney the absolute best and will always cheer for them. I hope Jabari goes #1 and doesn't end up on a team like the Sixers, Bucks, or Magic. If it were me I'd come back and go for an incredible season with Duke vs. a grueling long NBA season on a crappy team. Of course I'd take the millions, and I'd know the millions would be there after 1 more year in college. I'd try to complete some more college goals after completing so many high school goals. But it's not me - I shoot worse than the Duke cross country kid who declared today (hilarious and cheered me up!). This is Jabari and Rodney's decision, and I can't fault them for choosing what was most important to them. I'll always remember how great they were at Duke for one season that ended too quickly. But now it's time to move on.

[SupaDave]

Now it's being reported on April 15 by Adam Zagoria. Doesn't sound like a joke to me:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...2014-nba-draft

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspor...ter-nba-draft/

[SupaDave]

Collison, Battier, and Green aren't even starters. Matthews, Hill, and Lin are fringy starters/role players. Prince, Parsons, and Hibbert are/were very solid but not great starters (Hibbert is highly overrated). Can one really call any of these guys among the best players in the NBA?

Only Lillard, Lee, Granger (pre-injury - now he's a backup), and Steve Nash could really be considered among the best in my opinion. And Nash, like Duncan, falls in the era prior to the one-and-done (mid-90s) explosion.

If you go through the top 50 players in the NBA right now, I'd guess that less than 20% were 4-year college guys. Maybe even less than 10%. For reference, only 4 of the top 50 in the Hollinger ratings (and I realize that Hollinger is not the be-all; just needed a reference point) were 4-year college guys. None of them were in the top-20.

I think it is really hard to argue that many of the best players in the NBA are 4-year college guys. You can certainly say that being a 4-year guy doesn't prevent you from being one of the best NBA players. But it hasn't really been the path that the vast majority of the best NBA players took to stardom.

You would have to name some pretty good folks to place people in front of these guys. You knew all of their names. Those guys are putting in work and were legit enough to research. Many have endorsements. ALL will get multiple contracts. Good enough for me.

And from Hibbert's freshmen year to now - he's hardly overrated. Gosh, I remember the kid could barely check in without getting a foul. He's come a long way.

[Troublemaker]

It's all good, Duke has an exciting class coming in and we'll be good next year. We'll be very young and inexperienced for the most part, but talented. I wish Jabari & Rodney the absolute best and will always cheer for them.

Indeed, brother. If Jabari and Rodney leave, Duke is still just the Harrison twins leaving Kentucky away from being preseason #1, as far as I can tell. Maybe Wisconsin, depending on how heavily the voters weigh experience as a factor. Whether Duke deserves that ranking is another matter and not one I'm too keen to argue about as of right now. But the point is, even if the media and general public are slightly overestimating Duke, we'd still be way up there as far as contenders are concerned. Even if Jabari and Rodney leave.

[CDu]

You would have to name some pretty good folks to place people in front of these guys. You knew all of their names. Those guys are putting in work and were legit enough to research. Many have endorsements. ALL will get multiple contracts. Good enough for me.

And from Hibbert's freshmen year to now - he's hardly overrated. Gosh, I remember the kid could barely check in without getting a foul. He's come a long way.

I guess it depends on your definition of "many" and "among the best." There are only like ~450 players in the NBA. So the top 50 represent roughly the top 10 percent of the league. Only 4 or 5 4-year guys make the top-50. So if you define "many" as 4 or 5 and "among the best" to include anyone in the top 10-15% of the league, then sure. Conversely, the top-20 is litered with 1- and 2- year guys (and 0-year guys) but no 4-year guys.

I would wholeheartedly agree that there are many decent NBA guys that are 4-year guys (and even a few really good ones). I would not agree that 4-year guys represent many of the best players in the league.

[SupaDave]

I guess it depends on your definition of "many" and "among the best." There are only like ~450 players in the NBA. So the top 50 represent roughly the top 10 percent of the league. Only 4 or 5 4-year guys make the top-50. So if you define "many" as 4 or 5 and "among the best" to include anyone in the top 10-15% of the league, then sure. Conversely, the top-20 is litered with 1- and 2- year guys (and 0-year guys) but no 4-year guys.

I would wholeheartedly agree that there are many decent NBA guys that are 4-year guys (and even a few really good ones). I would not agree that 4-year guys represent many of the best players in the league.

I never used "many" so that's not my issue.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Now it's being reported on April 15 by Adam Zagoria. Doesn't sound like a joke to me:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...2014-nba-draft

As I pointed out in the other thread, Zagoria said the same thing about both Hood and Harrell back in late March. And as SupaDave so perfectly linked, these guys are not always right.

http://fansided.com/2014/03/25/nba-d...eclare/#!EbNL4

[richardjackson199]

As I pointed out in the other thread, Zagoria said the same thing about both Hood and Harrell back in late March. And as SupaDave so perfectly linked, these guys are not always right.

http://fansided.com/2014/03/25/nba-d...eclare/#!EbNL4

I understand that guys like Zagoria are occasionally wrong. But I wasn't responding to one report from one blogger guru. Many different pieces of information all came today from different sources that Jabari and Rodney are going pro. When you put them all together, that much smoke means there's a fire.

Adam Rowe and Zagoria have been wrong before, but they both get pretty money inside information most of the time. They both have indicated on separate occasions, and both again today, that Hood is going pro. Several other media outlets have indicated that Hood is gone, although there hasn't been an announcement. I haven't seen one thing to suggest that Hood is considering staying (other than him not yet announcing his decision). There have been several mostly-reliable indicators that Hood is gone, including from Coach K himself.

For Jabari - today after discussing it with both his parents and Coach K - Adam Rowe predicts he goes pro; Mark Heisler (Veteran NBA writer, doing Sunday OC Register column, blogging for Forbes... Writers wing, Hoop Hall of Fame) tweets that NBA folks (who previously feared Jabari might be staying) now think he is going pro and furthermore that Jabari is already talking to players' agents to pick one. Then Olympic Fan, who also gets pretty good inside info into the program, reports that the announcement, which we previously were told would come on banquet day, will actually be delivered on Thursday or "Good" Friday. It makes sense not to deliver unhappy-for-team-Duke news on banquet day.

Put all that together, and the writing is on the wall. I'd love to be wrong obviously, but even hoping for a surprise announcement at this point is futile. Imagining Jabari and/or Rodney playing with next year's squad was a pipe dream. It was a fun one while it lasted before reality hit today. The decisions have been made, and too much information has leaked out from several very good (not perfect) sources.

[_Gary]

Put all that together, and the writing is on the wall. I'd love to be wrong obviously, but even hoping for a surprise announcement at this point is futile. Imagining Jabari and/or Rodney playing with next year's squad was a pipe dream. It was a fun one while it lasted before reality hit today. The decisions have been made, and too much information has leaked out from several very good (not perfect) sources.

Darn it. I'm forced to agree that the writing is on the wall. Up till the news earlier today that Jabari wouldn't announce tomorrow, I had really convinced myself he was coming back. Now I'm basically positive he won't. Can I change my vote?

[johnb]

It's totally reasonable that both of them go pro. It seems less terrific if they have absolutely decided but are hanging on to their decision for some reason. Maybe Jabari wants to emphasize his interest in school, and Rodney is trying to goose himself into the lottery, but I'd really rather not waste my time checking in to see on their draft status. So they should announce already, just to improve my daily efficiency.

Similarly, if Myles knows his final 2 or 3, announce them.

Basically, I'd like to start focusing on the 2014-15 team, which is looking to be a really great team without any of the unlikelies.

[KandG]

Roy Hibbert, Kenneth Faried, Damian Lillard, David Lee, Tayshaun Prince, Danny Granger, Shane Battier, David West, Steve Nash, JJ Redick, Chandler Parsons, George Hill, Jeremy Lin, Nick Collison, Wesley Matthews, Draymond Green and there's quite a few more less heralded players...

As someone who watches more NBA than college basketball, I love this list of players -- with the exception of 2 or 3 of them, though, they're mostly third bananas, role players, glue guys. Great high character players to have on an NBA team, and quite a few of them are crucial to their team's success. But Nash and Lillard (and maybe Hibbert) aside, not among the NBA's elite or best.

Also, let's remember why this list was trotted out. Someone pointed out that a player the quality of Grant Hill wouldn't stay more than 2 years, if that, in college today, given the changed circumstances. The response was that "some of the NBA's best players are 4 year players", and then this list came out. Take a look at where these players were drafted:


Shane Battier 6th
Damian Lillard 6th
JJ Redick 11th
Nick Collison 12th
Steve Nash 15th
Roy Hibbert 17th
Danny Granger 17th
David West 18th
Kenneth Faried 22nd
Tayshaun Prince 23rd
George Hill 26th
David Lee 30th
Draymond Green 36th
Chandler Parsons 38th
Jeremy Lin undrafted
Wes Matthews undrafted

Three quarters of these players were drafted mid first round or lower, and two of them were undrafted. Battier we know about in terms of the jump in his stock after winning a championship, though Lillard seems to be the most clear cut "success story" in terms of benefits from staying longer and being drafted high -- but he had to redshirt his junior year and was still a mystery after his sophomore year because he played in the Big Sky conference.

The point is that while this may be a very good group of high character, quality pros who benefited from and enjoyed their college experience, a considerable majority were not projected as lottery picks, let alone being top three. Several of them were surprises or major finds with many question marks. (even Lillard sort of qualifies here, as his draft position was the subject of major discussion prior to the draft)

Hood and Parker, on the other hand, are known quantities with very positive buzz, and staying longer in today's climate when you already enjoy very high visibility can bring about negatives as well as positives with the increased scrutiny (and the caveat, in Hood's case, that the NBA does consider age and upside). If one or both of them wanted to stay at Duke another year, more power to them, but the above list of players isn't really a model for taking that alternative path.

[SupaDave]

As someone who watches more NBA than college basketball, I love this list of players -- with the exception of 2 or 3 of them, though, they're mostly third bananas, role players, glue guys. Great high character players to have on an NBA team, and quite a few of them are crucial to their team's success. But Nash and Lillard (and maybe Hibbert) aside, not among the NBA's elite or best.

Also, let's remember why this list was trotted out. Someone pointed out that a player the quality of Grant Hill wouldn't stay more than 2 years, if that, in college today, given the changed circumstances. The response was that "some of the NBA's best players are 4 year players", and then this list came out. Take a look at where these players were drafted:


Shane Battier 6th
Damian Lillard 6th
JJ Redick 11th
Nick Collison 12th
Steve Nash 15th
Roy Hibbert 17th
Danny Granger 17th
David West 18th
Kenneth Faried 22nd
Tayshaun Prince 23rd
George Hill 26th
David Lee 30th
Draymond Green 36th
Chandler Parsons 38th
Jeremy Lin undrafted
Wes Matthews undrafted

Three quarters of these players were drafted mid first round or lower, and two of them were undrafted. Battier we know about in terms of the jump in his stock after winning a championship, though Lillard seems to be the most clear cut "success story" in terms of benefits from staying longer and being drafted high -- but he had to redshirt his junior year and was still a mystery after his sophomore year because he played in the Big Sky conference.

The point is that while this may be a very good group of high character, quality pros who benefited from and enjoyed their college experience, a considerable majority were not projected as lottery picks, let alone being top three. Several of them were surprises or major finds with many question marks. (even Lillard sort of qualifies here, as his draft position was the subject of major discussion prior to the draft)

Hood and Parker, on the other hand, are known quantities with very positive buzz, and staying longer in today's climate when you already enjoy very high visibility can bring about negatives as well as positives with the increased scrutiny (and the caveat, in Hood's case, that the NBA does consider age and upside). If one or both of them wanted to stay at Duke another year, more power to them, but the above list of players isn't really a model for taking that alternative path.

This is good stuff here. And I wouldn't compare Jabari (but Rodney's for sure) decision to that of a 4 year player. If you expand the talent pool to include players that left after their second or third year then things get a lot more interesting. However, Jabari for the most part has a Kevin Durant decision and I don't see why anyone should EXPECT him to stay.

[CDu]

This is good stuff here. And I wouldn't compare Jabari (but Rodney's for sure) decision to that of a 4 year player. If you expand the talent pool to include players that left after their second or third year then things get a lot more interesting. However, Jabari for the most part has a Kevin Durant decision and I don't see why anyone should EXPECT him to stay.

On this I completely agree. Very few guys in the past 5-10 years have positioned themselves the way Parker has (in terms of performance/potential) as a freshman and decided to come back for his sophomore year. Like, less than 5 I'd guess. The expectation should be that he goes pro.

[Mike Corey]

Mike are you sayin' there's a chance?

I trust Airowe.

[JasonEvans]

Seeing as nothing official has happened yet (even though there are plenty of rumors going around), I reopened the poll so folks can vote again.

-Jason

[MCFinARL]

It's totally reasonable that both of them go pro. It seems less terrific if they have absolutely decided but are hanging on to their decision for some reason. Maybe Jabari wants to emphasize his interest in school, and Rodney is trying to goose himself into the lottery, but I'd really rather not waste my time checking in to see on their draft status. So they should announce already, just to improve my daily efficiency.

Similarly, if Myles knows his final 2 or 3, announce them.

Basically, I'd like to start focusing on the 2014-15 team, which is looking to be a really great team without any of the unlikelies.

Well, okay, but assuming this is true, without knowing what that reason is, why is it "less terrific"? Do these players owe us, as fans, the duty to make their announcements when we want them?

Maybe they wanted to go to the banquet still being fully members of the Duke team--to prolong the full college experience a little bit. Maybe they want to postpone announcements until they have had a chance to speak with everyone who has been a trusted adviser, even if those conversations are pro forma. Maybe they want to wait until they know who they will select as agents so they are ready to move forward right away. Maybe they want to have parents or other family members present when they make their announcements (which might make right after the banquet a likely time). Is our interest in knowing their choices greater than their interest in doing things in the manner and order they want to?

It would be one thing if they were keeping the coaching staff in the dark--but I am pretty confident that if Jabari and Rodney have made their decisions (which I suspect they have), the coaches know what those decisions are. The coaching staff can be planning for the future without having to tip the players' hands before the players are ready to make their decisions public.

Myles Turner raises a different set of issues because multiple teams and coaches are involved, and a recruit couldn't likely inform coaches of a school that he had cut them from his list without announcing it publicly. There is always the possibility that kids keep schools on their list that they are not really considering for publicity reasons, or because they like/respect certain coaches and don't want to disappoint them, or for whatever reason. So coaching staffs have to play a bit of a guessing game as to how likely it is that a recruit is still interested in their school. My guess is that most of the time the Duke coaching staff is pretty good at this, although there are always surprises.

But I think we ought to give Turner the benefit of the doubt here. We don't know that he has really cut his list just because someone tweets that he has; it may be that those schools are his leaders, but he truly hasn't ruled out the others. In particular, Turner has said that he wanted to play with some of the recruits going to the schools on his list in the series of all-star games that ends with the Jordan Brand Classic tomorrow, to see how well they would fit together. So he is still collecting data for his decision. Even if, for example, Duke is now trailing other options, the experience in that game, coupled with the decision of Jabari Parker, might change his opinion. Why not let him take the time he needs to be really sure?

[gumbomoop]

... we ought to give Turner the benefit of the doubt here. We don't know that he has really cut his list just because someone tweets that he has; it may be that those schools are his leaders, but he truly hasn't ruled out the others. In particular, Turner has said that he wanted to play with some of the recruits going to the schools on his list in the series of all-star games that ends with the Jordan Brand Classic tomorrow, to see how well they would fit together. So he is still collecting data for his decision. Even if, for example, Duke is now trailing other options, the experience in that game, coupled with the decision of Jabari Parker, might change his opinion. Why not let him take the time he needs to be really sure?

Yep, and from the 2014 recruiting thread:

Fun with twitter...

Omar Majzoub ‏@OmarMaz34 5h
2014 five-star big man Myles Turner has cut list of schools down to just Kansas, Texas and #SMU, according to @chadfordinsider

Myles Turner ‏@Original_Turner 4h
There is no truth to me cutting my list to 3 schools, thank you