The Jabari and Rodney prediction poll

[flyingdutchdevil]

As an aside, I was watching the Documentary on the 91 and 92 Duke Blue Devils, and it made me realize how different (in every way possible) college basketball is today compared to back then. If we lived in that world back then, Laettner would have left after his Sophomore Year, Hurley after his Sophomore or Junior year, and Hill after his freshman or sophomore year. Instead we got all three for four full years.

This. Different ball game, different standards. Players like Hill don't stay 4 years. Hell, any team would be lucky to have that for 2 years in the modern game.

I think that's why McBuckets was such an exciting player his year. If he had played in the 1990s, I don't think we'd be singing his praises as much as we are now as he'd be competing with Kyrie Irving, Harrison Barnes, Austin Rivers, etc. etc for media time (and same goes for the "Freshman Focus").

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I'd rather be optoemistic and wrong than pessimistic and right. They are both staying! Doh.

[MCFinARL]

I'd rather be optoemistic and wrong than pessimistic and right. They are both staying! Doh.

Ozzie, it would be so deeply disappointing if you said anything else. We need our paragon of optimism!

And, yes, I now realize I put paragon instead of paradigm--but it feels right, so I am leaving it.

[Jarhead]

Yes. I meant that he might be forthright about the advantages, which are many, and not speak from the heart that he would want him to return. Facts point to the young man moving on, the heart says stay and grow.

What facts are those? The facts that I have come across indicate nothing. Jabari has simply not yet made up his mind.

[richardjackson199]

Airowe, what's your vote in the DBR crystal ball?

(Hey it worked when I asked for Jason Evans prediction and also got one from Jim Sumner!)

[SupaDave]

They're both gone. Get over it. Another of our series of one and done players. I know Parker really isn't, but for Duke he was.

Hood has been in college 3 years - 2 of them at Duke.

This. Different ball game, different standards. Players like Hill don't stay 4 years. Hell, any team would be lucky to have that for 2 years in the modern game.

Depends on how you look at it - some of the NBA's best players are 4 year players.

I actually think that if left to Jabari's instinct, he stays, but I think K is going to push him to go.

Why would you think that? All the other players who have ever talked about that discussion with K says he doesn't push a position; he discusses pro's and con's. At the most, in an extreme case, he might point out that the pro's outweigh the con's in his view. If a player is ready and likely to be drafted high, he's honest about that. I don't think that's pushing. Or maybe you meant something a little less than "push".

Coach K is likely to sit Jabari down and the convo will go something like this:

Jabari: What's up Coach?
K: You know why you are here today - it's your end of the year evaluation.
Jabari: So what do you think?
K: Jabari, you're one of the most gifted players I've ever coached. You're a top 5 pick in the draft and there's no way I can tell you to stay in school. However, you did not accomplish everything that you came to Duke to do. I'm sure you understand that you have things to work on in your game and the NBA isn't the best place to learn things on the fly. We have a tape of all the points you left on the floor this year along with all the times you didn't make it down the court on a break and didn't defend and all the times you got beat on a backdoor cut. Next year we plan to prepare you for the NBA in a NBA role just like we did JJ, Dunleavy, Elton Brand, Battier and Grant. No matter your decision - you are family and always will be a part of the Duke basketball program.
Jabari: Thank you coach. Do you think I could get the keys to the gym this year?
K: Only if you promise not to throw any wild parties...

Supa "guess what I voted for" Dave

[wsb3]

Pretty sure both are gone. This has probably been covered elsewhere but what has confused me is if it was a done deal that Hood was here for one year, why so long to declare?

[richardjackson199]

Pretty sure both are gone. This has probably been covered elsewhere but what has confused me is if it was a done deal that Hood was here for one year, why so long to declare?

Maybe it's not a done deal that Hood is gone. Maybe he is wisely watching what others will do and what it potentially does to his draft stock this year. Maybe after seeing his draft stock projected anywhere from late lottery to late first round he is wisely thinking about it. Maybe if he sees Jabari return and then considers that next year he could also star on an incredibly good team, finish his college career on a high note, and possibly be a top 5 pick that option would be worth thinking about. Maybe he also likes the idea of helping provide some upper-class leadership to next year's class of studs. Maybe he knows that plenty of NBA dollars will be coming soon even if he waits another year. Maybe he agrees with Coach K that he also wishes he could play for him for more than 1 year. I'm honestly not being sarcastic.

You pose a good point which I also considered, and this is precisely why I voted both would stay. I don't know what will happen, but I'm hopeful that on Wed. Jabari will announce his return. Then I believe Rodney will also have some fun options to consider. I'm glad Rodney is being smart and carefully weighing his options. He has until April 27, so there is no rush to make a very important decision while more data to consider is still coming in.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Depends on how you look at it - some of the NBA's best players are 4 year players.

I can't name one other than Timmy D, and he's 37 (a 1990s product, where 4 years in the college was the norm). Who else?

[MCFinARL]

Maybe it's not a done deal that Hood is gone. Maybe he is wisely watching what others will do and what it potentially does to his draft stock this year. Maybe after seeing his draft stock projected anywhere from late lottery to late first round he is wisely thinking about it. Maybe if he sees Jabari return and then considers that next year he could also star on an incredibly good team, finish his college career on a high note, and possibly be a top 5 pick that option would be worth thinking about. Maybe he also likes the idea of helping provide some upper-class leadership to next year's class of studs. Maybe he knows that plenty of NBA dollars will be coming soon even if he waits another year. Maybe he agrees with Coach K that he also wishes he could play for him for more than 1 year. I'm honestly not being sarcastic.

You pose a good point which I also considered, and this is precisely why I voted both would stay. I don't know what will happen, but I'm hopeful that on Wed. Jabari will announce his return. Then I believe Rodney will also have some fun options to consider. I'm glad Rodney is being smart and carefully weighing his options. He has until April 27, so there is no rush to make a very important decision while more data to consider is still coming in.

I love your optimism here, which I don't really share, but for me your last sentence is the key. A lot of people seem to think that someone who plans to come out would necessarily announce right away--but why? What is the advantage in announcing quickly? This isn't like a college choice where a lot of teams are awaiting the decision and may continue to pester the player until he decides, so there may be an incentive to get it over with. I'm sure the Duke staff has a good enough idea of where Rodney stands that they can make plans accordingly. In the meantime, even if Rodney is 99% sure he is entering the draft, why not wait to see whether things happen (in terms of other players going out, etc.) that might change his thinking?

[SupaDave]

I can't name one other than Timmy D, and he's 37 (a 1990s product, where 4 years in the college was the norm). Who else?

Roy Hibbert, Kenneth Faried, Damian Lillard, David Lee, Tayshaun Prince, Danny Granger, Shane Battier, David West, Steve Nash, JJ Redick, Chandler Parsons, George Hill, Jeremy Lin, Nick Collison, Wesley Matthews, Draymond Green and there's quite a few more less heralded players...

[fgb]

of the two, even though jabari clearly appears to be the greater talent, i actually think rodney would be a better fit with next year's roster.

[JasonEvans]

Airowe, what's your vote in the DBR crystal ball?

(Hey it worked when I asked for Jason Evans prediction and also got one from Jim Sumner!)

Adam voted they will both go to the NBA. Sorry...

[CDu]

of the two, even though jabari clearly appears to be the greater talent, i actually think rodney would be a better fit with next year's roster.

I don't know. I think either would be a great fit. Parker would fill more of a need in that he could play the "stretch 4" spot alongside Okafor and Plumlee. Hood would be a nice scoring/shooting threat from the 3 spot.

[richardjackson199]

Adam voted they will both go to the NBA. Sorry...

I know! Be careful what you ask for. I was pretty hopeful after hearing we would likely find out the destination Wed. on banquet day. Seeing Adam's vote, and especially seeing the vote cast today in that direction is a bummer.

I'll still wait to hear the news from both players, and of course support them both 100% and be happy for them either way. Their futures will be quite bright either way. But my expectations for seeing Rodney or Jabari in Durham next year are certainly quite lowered now.

(Which means of course that a banquet announcement that they both or Jabari stays would rocket me up even higher. )
(Of course I want them to each do what is best and most important to them).

Waiting to hear the news...

[CDu]

I know! Be careful what you ask for. I was pretty hopeful after hearing we would likely find out the destination Wed. on banquet day. Seeing Adam's vote, and especially seeing the vote cast today in that direction is a bummer.

I'll still wait to hear the news from both players, and of course support them both 100% and be happy for them either way. Their futures will be quite bright either way. But my expectations for seeing Rodney or Jabari in Durham next year are certainly quite lowered now.

(Which means of course that a banquet announcement that they both or Jabari stays would rocket me up even higher. )
(Of course I want them to each do what is best and most important to them).

Waiting to hear the news...

The odds have been against either player returning since before the season began. It is fairly rare for a freshman predicted to be a top-3 pick to return for his sophomore year. It is rare for a third-year player projected to be a first round pick to return as well.

Expect them to go pro. Be pleasantly surprised on the off-chance that they return. Wish them well if they don't surprise and do go pro.

[richardjackson199]

The odds have been against either player returning since before the season began. It is fairly rare for a freshman predicted to be a top-3 pick to return for his sophomore year. It is rare for a third-year player projected to be a first round pick to return as well.

Expect them to go pro. Be pleasantly surprised on the off-chance that they return. Wish them well if they don't surprise and do go pro.

Agreed.

Most probably saw this posted in the Rodney Hood draft vigil, but for anyone who missed it Adam Zagoria just reported that per a source Rodney Hood is certainly going pro. As always, I'll wait for Rodney, but if that is true I wish Rodney all the best. What a great Duke player in every sense. He'll do very well.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Roy Hibbert, Kenneth Faried, Damian Lillard, David Lee, Tayshaun Prince, Danny Granger, Shane Battier, David West, Steve Nash, JJ Redick, Chandler Parsons, George Hill, Jeremy Lin, Nick Collison, Wesley Matthews, Draymond Green and there's quite a few more less heralded players...

Since when did all these players not named Roy Hibbert and Damina Lillard ever be considered "some of the NBA's best players"? Good players, yes. Excellent role players, yes. But "NBA best" sounds like "star", and only Hibbert and Lillard really fit that bill (Duncan too, of course).

[SoCalDukeFan]

I voted that they both go to the NBA.

Evidently they are both good students and still attending classes and working on schoolwork. I think that shows they do want to eventually get a degree and am proud of them. I can fault them for leaving and feel good that they really are college students.

Obviously would prefer that my vote was completely off based and they both stay and complete their degree.

One and dones (or transfers and then one and done) do not bother me as I understand the allure of the NBA and the money. What does bother me is those that only come to college because they think have to and then drop out of school as soon as possible.

SoCal

[CDu]

Roy Hibbert, Kenneth Faried, Damian Lillard, David Lee, Tayshaun Prince, Danny Granger, Shane Battier, David West, Steve Nash, JJ Redick, Chandler Parsons, George Hill, Jeremy Lin, Nick Collison, Wesley Matthews, Draymond Green and there's quite a few more less heralded players...

Collison, Battier, and Green aren't even starters. Matthews, Hill, and Lin are fringy starters/role players. Prince, Parsons, and Hibbert are/were very solid but not great starters (Hibbert is highly overrated). Can one really call any of these guys among the best players in the NBA?

Only Lillard, Lee, Granger (pre-injury - now he's a backup), and Steve Nash could really be considered among the best in my opinion. And Nash, like Duncan, falls in the era prior to the one-and-done (mid-90s) explosion.

If you go through the top 50 players in the NBA right now, I'd guess that less than 20% were 4-year college guys. Maybe even less than 10%. For reference, only 4 of the top 50 in the Hollinger ratings (and I realize that Hollinger is not the be-all; just needed a reference point) were 4-year college guys. None of them were in the top-20.

I think it is really hard to argue that many of the best players in the NBA are 4-year college guys. You can certainly say that being a 4-year guy doesn't prevent you from being one of the best NBA players. But it hasn't really been the path that the vast majority of the best NBA players took to stardom.