Andre Dawkins lights it up

[UrinalCake]

I can guarantee you that if the Duke coaches wanted Andre to be cutting and moving without the ball and all he did was stand there, he'd have been yanked immediately and found a permanent place on the bench until he could execute the things they were telling him to do.

You're describing exactly what happened in most of his games from the last two months of the season.

[GGLC]

You're describing exactly what happened in most of his games from the last two months of the season.

I strongly disagree with your assertion.

If Andre wasn't doing what the coaches wanted him to do in the offensive gameplan, they would have sat him on the bench and he would not have come back in the game. And if the next game out he continued to disregard the gameplan (as you're suggesting that he did), he would have been benched as long as it took to get the lesson through to him. How many games from the last two months of the season can you find where Andre was pulled as soon as he started standing around the perimeter (which, according to you, would be as soon as he set foot on the floor) and was relegated to the bench for the rest of the game?

The alternative explanation, of course, is that Andre WAS doing what the coaches wanted out of him. If you have a problem with all the standing around on the perimeter, maybe it's not Andre you should be looking to for the initial portion of that blame.

[GGLC]

I'm going to miss him, too. Streaky shooting or no, when he is on, he is so electrifying to watch. And he is such a likable kid with a terrific smile and compelling story that I can somewhat relate to.

I always had the impression that Andre's shooting/scoring trailed off late in the season every year. Anyone else notice that? I don't know if it was defenses catching on to him, fatigue, loss of focus, or what, but it just felt, to me, like he trailed off in his shooting/scoring. That likely would have affected his play in other areas as well. I was curious, so I looked it up on GoDuke's statgeek. His percentages became significantly lower as the seasons wore on, as did his minutes per game. Sort of a chicken-or-egg thing as to whether his shooting/scoring trailed off because K used him less OR he was used less because his shooting/scoring trailed off. (see numbers below)

As for this recently ended season, I think K was searching for chemistry on the court and sometimes he found it with Andre, and other times, not. I definitely noticed improvement in Andre's overall game this year. He drove more, hitting some nice floaters. He was better on D. Sure, he got beat on backdoor cuts a few times, but so did others, even Tyler. That is going to happen in our defense with the over-playing of passing lanes K likes to do so much. Still, the trend of his shooting/scoring trailing off towards the end of the year was there again. Not sure why.

Career numbers by month

FG%

Nov - .488 (83-170)
Dec - .538 (78-145)
Jan - .400 (82-205)
Feb - .348 (48-138)
Mar - .370 (37-100)


3PT%

Nov - .484 (61-126)
Dec - .477 (51-107)
Jan - .355 (55-155)
Feb - .382 (39-102)
Mar - .315 (23-73)


FT%

Nov - .789 (30-38)
Dec - .778 (28-36)
Jan - .854 (41-48)
Feb - .667 (16-24)
Mar - .533 (8-15)


Min/per game

Nov - 20.2
Dec - 21.3
Jan - 19.1
Feb - 14.8
Mar - 12.8


Pts/per game

Nov - 9.5
Dec - 11.2
Jan - 7.6
Feb - 4.9
Mar - 4.0

Also, BuschDevil's excellent post clearly shows a striking correlation between Andre's offensive production and his minutes played per game on a month-to-month basis over his collegiate career. I don't presume to know whether his production hit a cliff in conference play because his minutes dwindled or whether his minutes took a significant hit because he stopped hitting shots, but the job of the coaching staff should have been, and presumably was, to coax November-December style production from Andre in January, February, and March. Obviously that didn't happen, for whatever reason, although I do think it's notable that his free throw shooting ALSO declined precipitously at a time that coincided from his minutes per game going from 19+ to less than 15. This signals to me that Andre's ability to hit shots may have been detrimentally affected by his decline in minutes, whether or not the converse is also true.

[FerryFor50]

I'm going to miss him, too. Streaky shooting or no, when he is on, he is so electrifying to watch. And he is such a likable kid with a terrific smile and compelling story that I can somewhat relate to.

I always had the impression that Andre's shooting/scoring trailed off late in the season every year. Anyone else notice that? I don't know if it was defenses catching on to him, fatigue, loss of focus, or what, but it just felt, to me, like he trailed off in his shooting/scoring. That likely would have affected his play in other areas as well. I was curious, so I looked it up on GoDuke's statgeek. His percentages became significantly lower as the seasons wore on, as did his minutes per game. Sort of a chicken-or-egg thing as to whether his shooting/scoring trailed off because K used him less OR he was used less because his shooting/scoring trailed off. (see numbers below)

As for this recently ended season, I think K was searching for chemistry on the court and sometimes he found it with Andre, and other times, not. I definitely noticed improvement in Andre's overall game this year. He drove more, hitting some nice floaters. He was better on D. Sure, he got beat on backdoor cuts a few times, but so did others, even Tyler. That is going to happen in our defense with the over-playing of passing lanes K likes to do so much. Still, the trend of his shooting/scoring trailing off towards the end of the year was there again. Not sure why.

Career numbers by month

FG%

Nov - .488 (83-170)
Dec - .538 (78-145)
Jan - .400 (82-205)
Feb - .348 (48-138)
Mar - .370 (37-100)


3PT%

Nov - .484 (61-126)
Dec - .477 (51-107)
Jan - .355 (55-155)
Feb - .382 (39-102)
Mar - .315 (23-73)


FT%

Nov - .789 (30-38)
Dec - .778 (28-36)
Jan - .854 (41-48)
Feb - .667 (16-24)
Mar - .533 (8-15)


Min/per game

Nov - 20.2
Dec - 21.3
Jan - 19.1
Feb - 14.8
Mar - 12.8


Pts/per game

Nov - 9.5
Dec - 11.2
Jan - 7.6
Feb - 4.9
Mar - 4.0

Good post, and I think the bold part of the paragraph hits the nail on the head.

What I saw from Andre late in the season was that he didn't work very hard to get open. His man would often just stand there with a hand on him and Dre was in there to basically keep that guy out of the paint.

When he did get plays called for him, he'd work around screens ok, but then wouldn't necessarily get the best look at the basket. I loved the kid to death, but I never saw the work put in that other great shooters use to get open. Just look at any of Brady Heslip's games vs Andre's... Heslip would run non-stop.

Another part of the later season swooning was the fact that the competition got a little tougher and K's bench shortened, as per usual. Since Dre hadn't really earned the minutes over other guys that K trusted (TT is the main one who took the minutes Dre would have seen), he didn't get rewarded unless he came in and hit a few shots.

It stinks, but the reality of it is that Dre's college career was derailed by what happened to his sister. He was on track to play significantly but it never transpired due to his loss of desire, focus, and other things you'd expect from a kid in mourning. To top it off, the coaching staff hedged their bets and made sure they got recruits/transfers in to fill the scorer's role, just in case Dre didn't come back. Recall from the article on him that there were no guarantees he was coming back to Duke.

If Dre hadn't suffered his loss and played the entirety of his career uninterrupted and un-distracted, we probably don't go after Rodney Hood as hard. Dre probably gets those minutes and goes on to be an all time Duke great. But it's irresponsible to say in hindsight that Dre would have lit it up this season based on intuition and one all-star game performance.

There were many factors in Dre's lack of minutes this season, and the main one, in my opinion, was the fact that he was not as good on defense as TT. Hopefully Dre shows the world that he can play at an elite level.

[UrinalCake]

I strongly disagree with your assertion.

I feel like the hypothetical situation you've described - that the coaches wanted Andre to work on certain things, he failed to do them, and thus he got the short hook - is exactly what happened most games. If the coaches wanted him to remain stagnant on offense and passive on defense, then he would have been playing 40 minutes a game. As the numbers prove, he shot great in the preseason against lesser competition when he could take wide open shots, but as competition improved, the stakes got higher, and defenses figured out how to defend him, his effectiveness diminished.

I had to keep disparaging a player that I really do like, but the Andre supporters are equally disparaging to our coaching staff in suggesting they should have played him more, and I just don't see it.

[MCFinARL]

I feel like the hypothetical situation you've described - that the coaches wanted Andre to work on certain things, he failed to do them, and thus he got the short hook - is exactly what happened most games. If the coaches wanted him to remain stagnant on offense and passive on defense, then he would have been playing 40 minutes a game. As the numbers prove, he shot great in the preseason against lesser competition when he could take wide open shots, but as competition improved, the stakes got higher, and defenses figured out how to defend him, his effectiveness diminished.

I had to keep disparaging a player that I really do like, but the Andre supporters are equally disparaging to our coaching staff in suggesting they should have played him more, and I just don't see it.

Not to split hairs, and I know there have been some posts saying the coaches should have played Andre more, but I think there is a difference between saying that Andre would likely have been a more effective player if he had gotten more minutes and saying that the coaches made a mistake in not giving him more minutes. The coaches' primary goal, after all, is to deploy players in the way that they think is most likely to win games. Given the particular personnel available and the game situations available, that goal may have at times conflicted with the goal of using Andre in the way that was most likely to make Andre effective.

Whether a different choice by the coaches might actually have made the team better as well is no more than speculation on our part at this point. It's my gut feeling (also purely speculative) that Andre would have been a more effective, more consistent player with more minutes. Whether that would have made the team as a whole better--I don't know. But I don't think saying so means I am disparaging the coaching staff.

[CDu]

Not to split hairs, and I know there have been some posts saying the coaches should have played Andre more, but I think there is a difference between saying that Andre would likely have been a more effective player if he had gotten more minutes and saying that the coaches made a mistake in not giving him more minutes. The coaches' primary goal, after all, is to deploy players in the way that they think is most likely to win games. Given the particular personnel available and the game situations available, that goal may have at times conflicted with the goal of using Andre in the way that was most likely to make Andre effective.

Whether a different choice by the coaches might actually have made the team better as well is no more than speculation on our part at this point. It's my gut feeling (also purely speculative) that Andre would have been a more effective, more consistent player with more minutes. Whether that would have made the team as a whole better--I don't know. But I don't think saying so means I am disparaging the coaching staff.

In other words, the coaches can't put every individual's best interest first when making decisions. When dealing with a team with finite availability of minutes, somebody's interests are going to be compromised for (hopefully) the best interests of the team.

It appeared that the coaching staff relied more on ballhandling and defense from the minutes that Dawkins might have gotten. So unless he was hitting at a fantastic rate, the staff felt that the team was better served with a guy like Thornton (better ballhandler, better team defender), Sulaimon (better ballhandler, better individual defender), or Jones (better defender). Whether or not that is the right decision, nobody can know.

I think the assumption that more minutes would have been better for Dawkins is a pretty safe one. Very few players actually play better in limited minutes. Most guys need to play more to get into a rhythm. So that I think is a fairly safe assertion on your part.

And as you said, I agree that this assertion doesn't (on its own) serve as a complaint about the coaching. I think most would agree that getting Plumlee more minutes would benefit him. Same for Ojeleye. That doesn't mean that limiting their minutes was a mistake by the staff. It just means that the staff felt the team would benefit more by other guys getting those minutes.

[MCFinARL]

Andre led his team with 20 points on 8-17 shooting in 29 minutes in his first Portsmouth Invitational game, which his team lost, 88-81. The team will now play a placement game (the invitational is set up like a tournament, but with every team getting to play three games, win or lose) this afternoon and another on Saturday. The leading scorer for the other team was Shayne Whittington of Western Michigan, with 19. https://www.portsmouthinvitational.c...ds/2014GM5.pdf

[MCFinARL]

And here is something you don't see every day--Dawkins making an alley oop dunk.

[Saratoga2]

And as you said, I agree that this assertion doesn't (on its own) serve as a complaint about the coaching. I think most would agree that getting Plumlee more minutes would benefit him. Same for Ojeleye. That doesn't mean that limiting their minutes was a mistake by the staff. It just means that the staff felt the team would benefit more by other guys getting those minutes.

A reason for questioning PT of certain players was the good results the team experienced when making line change and or very heavy substitutions. That tatic did get more players involved. Reduced fatigue and fouls on key players and mixed the rotation, perhaps finding better combinations. Clearly we went away from that approach and the overall result was not good. I know this was primarily about Andre but think it also applied to Marshall, Semi and Matt. I don't expect any change in concept next season as coach K has talked about getting into better shape and concentrating more on defense.

[GGLC]

And here is something you don't see every day--Dawkins making an alley oop dunk.

Andre can drive and finish far better than people think. When he did so in a few games before conference play started, good things generally happened. He just wasn't asked to play that kind of role in the offense.

[MCFinARL]

A reason for questioning PT of certain players was the good results the team experienced when making line change and or very heavy substitutions. That tatic did get more players involved. Reduced fatigue and fouls on key players and mixed the rotation, perhaps finding better combinations. Clearly we went away from that approach and the overall result was not good. I know this was primarily about Andre but think it also applied to Marshall, Semi and Matt. I don't expect any change in concept next season as coach K has talked about getting into better shape and concentrating more on defense.

Yes, I think that will remain one of the unsolved mysteries of this season--that approach seemed to work fairly well, in limited use. But it didn't last long--once Sulaimon got going, things went back to pretty traditional substitution patterns. As always, we don't see the practices, and we don't know everything that goes into the coaches' calculations. Possibly the platoon rotations would not have continued to work as well as they did for a while. Possibly even if they did work to some extent, going back to the old pattern worked better. But from an outsider's point of view, they did seem to add a real spark to the team and produce high quality minutes from just about everyone.

[superdave]

Yes, I think that will remain one of the unsolved mysteries of this season--that approach seemed to work fairly well, in limited use. But it didn't last long--once Sulaimon got going, things went back to pretty traditional substitution patterns. As always, we don't see the practices, and we don't know everything that goes into the coaches' calculations. Possibly the platoon rotations would not have continued to work as well as they did for a while. Possibly even if they did work to some extent, going back to the old pattern worked better. But from an outsider's point of view, they did
seem to add a real spark to the team and produce high quality minutes from just about everyone.

What matters in games matters more than practice. To some extent, practice is not a 100% indicator of in-game success. Usually we hear stories of a guy dominating practice but getting flummoxed in games.

If the B-team gets dominated in practice by the A-team (<chuckles>) but can provide three or four really good 2-minute stretches in games, then why go away from that? As Allen Iverson says "we talking about practice." The goal is to win games. Throw out customs, traditions and what should be. Just win.

I have not doubt that more Andre would have meant better than a 26-9 final record and early NCAA exit. We were our best as a team with him having a more substantial contribution rather than less. If you have to throw practice out the window, then be flexible and do that. Coach K didnt do that, and I'm not really sure why not.

Granted, we all were not at those practices, so maybe there's a lot more to the story. I also buy the theory that opponents were effective in reducing Andre's number of open looks as the season wore on. However, we watched Duke revolve its entire offense around getting JJ open looks for years, and Andre actually has a sweeter stroke (but maybe not the requisite work ethic?). So why not run plays for Andre and work just as hard to get him going?

I'll always look back on this season, and particularly Andre's ever-reducing minutes and shot attempts, and think "what if". I hate thinking that way. I wish we could have a do-over for a number of reasons. Andre is one my favorites, so the finish was really frustrating.

Super "Regrets, I've had a few" Dave

[sagegrouse]

What matters in games matters more than practice. To some extent, practice is not a 100% indicator of in-game success. Usually we hear stories of a guy dominating practice but getting flummoxed in games.

If the B-team gets dominated in practice by the A-team (<chuckles>) but can provide three or four really good 2-minute stretches in games, then why go away from that? As Allen Iverson says "we talking about practice." The goal is to win games. Throw out customs, traditions and what should be. Just win.

I have not doubt that more Andre would have meant better than a 26-9 final record and early NCAA exit. We were our best as a team with him having a more substantial contribution rather than less. If you have to throw practice out the window, then be flexible and do that. Coach K didnt do that, and I'm not really sure why not.

Granted, we all were not at those practices, so maybe there's a lot more to the story.

Allan Iverson's soliloquy on practice is always on topic:

Iverson: If I can't practice, I can't practice man. If I'm hurt, I'm hurt. I mean ... simple as that. It ain't about that... I mean it's... It's not about that... At all. You know what I'm saying I mean... But it's...it's easy ... to, to talk about... It's easy to sum it up when you're just talking about practice. We're sitting in here, and I'm supposed to be the franchise player, and we in here talking about practice. I mean, listen, we're talking about practice, not a game, not a game, not a game, we talking about practice. Not a game. Not, not ... Not the game that I go out there and die for and play every game like it's my last. Not the game, but we're talking about practice, man. I mean, how silly is that? ... And we talking about practice. I know I supposed to be there. I know I'm supposed to lead by example... I know that... And i'm not.. I'm not shoving it aside, you know, like it don't mean anything. I know it's important, I do. I honestly do... But we're talking about practice man. What are we talking about? Practice? We're talking about practice, man. [laughter from the media crowd] We're talking about practice. We're talking about practice. We ain't talking about the game. [more laughter] We're talking about practice, man. When you come to the arena, and you see me play, you see me play don't you? You've seen me give everything I've got, right? But we're talking about practice right now. We talking about pr... [Interrupted]

[-jk]

I'm afraid this season won't be measured by offensive deficiencies, but rather defensive. And Andre really didn't help our defensive issues.

On offense, Andre was reliable against middling competition, but much more unpredictable when the other team's defense ramped up.

He faced his demons and appeared to have fun playing again. That's enough for me.

-jk

[MCFinARL]

What matters in games matters more than practice. To some extent, practice is not a 100% indicator of in-game success. Usually we hear stories of a guy dominating practice but getting flummoxed in games.

If the B-team gets dominated in practice by the A-team (<chuckles>) but can provide three or four really good 2-minute stretches in games, then why go away from that? As Allen Iverson says "we talking about practice." The goal is to win games. Throw out customs, traditions and what should be. Just win.

I have not doubt that more Andre would have meant better than a 26-9 final record and early NCAA exit. We were our best as a team with him having a more substantial contribution rather than less. If you have to throw practice out the window, then be flexible and do that. Coach K didnt do that, and I'm not really sure why not.

Granted, we all were not at those practices, so maybe there's a lot more to the story. I also buy the theory that opponents were effective in reducing Andre's number of open looks as the season wore on. However, we watched Duke revolve its entire offense around getting JJ open looks for years, and Andre actually has a sweeter stroke (but maybe not the requisite work ethic?). So why not run plays for Andre and work just as hard to get him going?

I'll always look back on this season, and particularly Andre's ever-reducing minutes and shot attempts, and think "what if". I hate thinking that way. I wish we could have a do-over for a number of reasons. Andre is one my favorites, so the finish was really frustrating.

Super "Regrets, I've had a few" Dave

My heart tells me you are right--Andre had me at "hello" and I have continued to be a big fan. But my head tells me I don't know enough to be confident more Andre would have led to more success. Andre fully integrated into the game plan, successfully doing what he does best, would almost certainly have led to more success, but I don't know for sure how hard it would have been to make that happen and what the trade-offs would have been.

Also, re "practice"--there is a reason why AI never played for Coach K. :-)

[GGLC]

I'm afraid this season won't be measured by offensive deficiencies, but rather defensive. And Andre really didn't help our defensive issues.

On offense, Andre was reliable against middling competition, but much more unpredictable when the other team's defense ramped up.

He faced his demons and appeared to have fun playing again. That's enough for me.

-jk

I refer again to his nine points in seven minutes against defensive powerhouse Virginia as one data point to the contrary.

[Papa John]

It stinks, but the reality of it is that Dre's college career was derailed by what happened to his sister. He was on track to play significantly but it never transpired due to his loss of desire, focus, and other things you'd expect from a kid in mourning. To top it off, the coaching staff hedged their bets and made sure they got recruits/transfers in to fill the scorer's role, just in case Dre didn't come back. Recall from the article on him that there were no guarantees he was coming back to Duke.

I think this sums things up nicely. I disagree with Urinal Cake's assertion that Dre showed only one offensive move—Andre demonstrated effectiveness this season in driving the ball to the hole and either finishing and/or getting fouled to go to the line. The problem was that he was not one of the primary weapons being asked to do that (he was actually the #5 option in our offense for dribble penetration), so we didn't see that dimension from him often this season.

Unfortunately for Andre, he was sidetracked by a personal tragedy that really threw him in a funk and stunted his development. He took time off to get his head in order, but [again, unfortunately for him] returned to a complete logjam of offensive talent, which made it difficult to gain quality minutes (particularly given the perception [whether correct or not] of Andre being a one-dimensional offensive weapon). I believe that the Andre Dawkins we saw this season had demonstrated improvement on the defensive side of the ball as well as tremendous improvement in the scope of his offensive game—he added the ability to put the ball on the floor and blow by the defender who over-committed to defend the 3-pointer for either a mid-range jumper or a dribble-drive. In other words, he started to show the type of development you saw in guys like JJ. The problem, however, was that Dre had Hood, Parker, Sulaimon, and Cook ahead of him as primary offensive options on the perimeter (Parker and Hood clearly being versatile offensive options on both the perimeter and the blocks any time down the floor).

In short, Dre returned to a situation where he was simply buried, so we never really got to witness definitively how much his game had progressed. If I were an NBA GM for a team in relatively good shape personnel-wise, I'd be very tempted to roll the dice on Andre with a mid to late second round pick. Now that he has come to terms with his personal tragedy, he'll be more able to focus on honing his game. I agree with those who say he is an elite offensive weapon—he definitely is, and now that he's found his ability to focus, I think his natural development as a basketball player can [and will] continue. I see Dre as potentially being one of those guys who come out of nowhere to become a solid, valuable role player in the league...

[Kedsy]

I have not doubt that more Andre would have meant better than a 26-9 final record and early NCAA exit. We were our best as a team with him having a more substantial contribution rather than less. If you have to throw practice out the window, then be flexible and do that. Coach K didnt do that, and I'm not really sure why not.

Here's the thing about Andre -- to maximize his performance the offense would have to be structured around him.

I alluded to this a couple times during the season and it didn't get any traction, but imagine this year's team without Rodney or Jabari. The starters at the beginning of the season would probably have been Quinn, Rasheed, Andre, Josh, and Amile. At some point during the season, Marshall probably would have passed Josh and become the starter (after much clamoring and hand-wringing on DBR about why it didn't happen earlier).

In that scenario, Coach K has no choice but to structure the offense around Andre's shooting (like we did for JJ) and Rasheed's driving. Our somewhat offensively-challenged bigs would spend most of their time setting on-ball screens for Quinn and Rasheed and multiple off-ball screens for Andre. Andre probably scores 20+ ppg and Rasheed and Quinn somewhere in the mid-teens. Amile cleans up around the basket and Marshall gets a couple alley-oops a game. Oddly, our overall scoring is probably pretty similar to our actual 2013-14 scoring.

However, that team would be suspect on defense, maybe ranked as low as 100 or so in Pomeroy. Tyler and Matt would help defensively off the bench -- Tyler might even displace Quinn as a starter at some point -- but with Tyler and Matt our offense might sputter a little. We could have hung with anyone but we might not have had quite enough juice to beat a Kansas or an Arizona. Even more problematic, if an opponent could shut down Andre (or, to a lesser extent, Rasheed), we would be susceptible to upsets -- on the road to, say, Notre Dame or Clemson, or even Wake Forest. We'd probably lose 8 to 10 games, get a 3 or 4-seed, and might be in danger of an early NCAAT exit.

In short, in my mind there's a pretty good chance that team would have had the exact same season we had in real life. Maybe if a few bounces had gone our way we could have had a better season than the one we actually did. Who knows, maybe everything goes right and we make the Final Four.

But we did have Jabari and Rodney, and while I don't think the team without them would have performed much (if at all) worse than we actually performed, I do think the team with Jabari and Rodney had WAY more upside. It made a lot more sense for Coach K to structure the team around Jabari and Rodney (rather than Andre and Rasheed), and if you accept that, then it's it's very possible that Andre's best role was as sniper coming in for 10 or 15 mpg for an offensive burst.

That's my take, anyway.

[Billy Dat]

In short, Dre returned to a situation where he was simply buried, so we never really got to witness definitively how much his game had progressed. If I were an NBA GM for a team in relatively good shape personnel-wise, I'd be very tempted to roll the dice on Andre with a mid to late second round pick. Now that he has come to terms with his personal tragedy, he'll be more able to focus on honing his game. I agree with those who say he is an elite offensive weapon—he definitely is, and now that he's found his ability to focus, I think his natural development as a basketball player can [and will] continue. I see Dre as potentially being one of those guys who come out of nowhere to become a solid, valuable role player in the league...

I agree that he'll get a chance at this outcome. Every NBA team needs dead-eye 3 point shooters, now more then ever. He'll mostly have to prove that he can guard.