MLax: Duke 17, Virginia 15

[burnspbesq]

Duke has owned the Hoos for the last decade (Virginia has won two national championships since its last regular-season win over Duke, in 2004). Could tonight be different?

Yes, it could. Virginia's 8-4 record (1-3 in ACC play) is somewhat misleading. The Hoos' losses are all to ranked teams, and were all close except for a stomping at Notre Dame. They have wins over Loyola, Hopkins, and Syracuse, and are 5-0 at home. This is a talented and deep team that does some things extremely well.

On offense, the Hoos are attack-oriented. Senior Mark Cockerton is fourth in the country with 36 goals, and sophomore James Pannell has chipped in with 31. The Hoos' first midfield features three double-digit goal-scorers in Rob Emery, Ryan Tucker, and Greg Coholan, and their second unit (Tyler German, Pat Harbeson, and heralded freshman Zed Williams) is as good as any second unit in the country. The Hoos are number 18 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and put up 12.8 goals per game (vs 13.9 for Duke).

The defense is sound, but trails the offense in every major statistical category. The Hoos' are number 23 in adjusted defensive efficiency; opponents cash in on just over 29 percent of their possessions (compared to 27.7 percent for Duke, which is number 14 in this category). The Hoos give up 10.7 goals per game (vs. 8.5 for Duke). Pre-season All-American Scott McWilliams is living up to the hype, and Tanner Scales and Greg Danseglio are improved over last year. SSDM Chris LaPierre isn't quite back to 100 percent from last year's devastating knee injury, but he's playing at a near-All-American level. The Hoos' goaltending is not up to standard, and is probably their biggest weakness. Freshman Mart Barrett is saving only 47.7 percent of the shots he sees, and is giving up over 11 goals per game.

The Hoos love to push tempo; at almost 73 possessions per game, they are in the top five in the country in that category. Duke is certainly capable of running with them, but ball security will be extremely important against the best riding team in the country (the Hoos blow up over 22 percent of opponent's clearing opportunities).

A win over the Cavs would lock Duke into no worse than the second seed in the ACC tournament (depending on the outcome of next week's Maryland - ND game), extend their six-game winning streak, and enhance their case for the overall top seed in next month's NCAA tournament.

[chrishoke]

How are the Hoos at the X?

[MCFinARL]

How are the Hoos at the X?

According to stats on the UVA website, they are 151 of 319 on the year, with the usual faceoff guy, Mick Parks, at 106 of 204.

So, pretty close to 50-50. Could be an opportunity for Duke there.

[Bob Green]

Thanks for the heads-up, Burns! It sounds like this could be a good one so I'm definitely going to tune in and watch the game.

[chrishoke]

4-3 Hoos. Getting killed at the X and in transition.

[chrishoke]

They want it more. Come on Devils!

[chrishoke]

Tied at 6, 10 to go in 1st half. Fowler with 3 straight face off wins.

[chrishoke]

five straight goals for the good guys. 9-6 Duke. Fowler starting to dominate. Defense stepping up.

[Bob Green]

Halftime: 10-7 Duke. A very entertaining game. Virginia scored with 2.7 seconds left in the half to break a 6-0 Duke run.

[chrishoke]

Big hit on Luke D, questionable 1 min unnecessary roughness penalty on virginia, duke cashes in - 12-8 Duke. 8 to go in the 3rd.

[chrishoke]

Two in a row for the Cavs, 13-10 duke at the end of three. Luke has not re-entered.

[chrishoke]

17-12 Duke, 6 to go, Myles Jones beasting, so fun to watch.

[chrishoke]

17-14 with 3 to go.

[SCMatt33]

Man, the clearing game has looked real shaky in the second half here. Fowler is dominating, but Duke has made some silly mistakes to give the ball away before getting set up. The offense has been flawless. Too close for how this game has gone.

[JetpackJesus]

Man, the clearing game has looked real shaky in the second half here. Fowler is dominating, but Duke has made some silly mistakes to give the ball away before getting set up. The offense has been flawless. Too close for how this game has gone.

They've certainly done their best to make this game much more exciting than it ought to be.

[Bob Green]

Final: 17-15 Duke! Closer at the end than it should have been.

[chrishoke]

17-15 final.

[burnspbesq]

Crazy looking box score. Duke 16 turnovers to two for Virginia. Five failed clears for Duke. Hoos outshot Duke 53-34.

On the other hand, UVa's keepers had four saves.

Fowler 22-35, including 9-for-10 in the fourth quarter.

Fourteen saves for Aaron.

Henry Lobb is my MOTM. Cockerton had one (extra-man) goal and no assists.

Survive and advance. Rutgers up next, a week from tomorrow on Senior Day for the class of 2014 (and 2007, too ).

[devilirium]

Random question...what happened with Turri? Aaron has played great so not arguing the switch. This seems to happen more frequently in lax.

[MCFinARL]

Random question...what happened with Turri? Aaron has played great so not arguing the switch. This seems to happen more frequently in lax.

Turri got off to a rough start this season, letting in 9 goals with 2 saves in the opener against Jacksonville and then giving up 4 goals with 1 save in the first period against Denver, after which Aaron came in and had 9 saves with 6 goals against. Since then, Aaron has been the starting goalie, although Turri did play a solid quarter against Loyola after Aaron was shelled in that game.

Aaron did come out of high school with a reputation as a very solid goalie.

Re the clearing game--it was pretty shaky. Worth noting, though, that apparently Virginia has one of the most effective rides on the clear in the NCAA--so it may be as much their strength as Duke's weakness.