Shot Selection

[pfrduke]

I wanted to unpack our offense a little bit. This thread will focus on shot selection, another to follow will focus on assists. Everything is broken down according to the following shot types: 3s, layups, dunks, tip-ins, and 2pt jump shots (which is any 2 that is not a layup, dunk, or tip). I don't have access to the fancy SportsVU data, so this is less precise than I would prefer it to be (in an ideal world, I'd do a graphical plot, but this is not an ideal world). I'm at the whim of scorekeepers deciding what counts as a layup and what counts as a jump shot. Not every jump shot is a 15-footer, it includes many shots in the paint. If I had better data, I'd separate out the paint jumpers from the non-paint jumpers, but the scorebooks only record paint information when the shot is a make, not a miss.

This first post will have our team data, and the subsequent posts will provide player information. I've broken it out into 3 segments - full season, non-ACC (pre-conference play plus Mercer), and ACC (all conference play, including the ACC tournament). However, because of issues with the game @UNC and the ACC championship game (specifically, the scorekeepers didn't distinguish between 2-point jumpers and layups, instead recording everything as a jumper) those games are excluded from the count so as not to skew the data and make it look like we took more 2-point jumpers than we actually did.

Tables are below. A couple observations:

• We scored, overall, 1.09 points per shot. That's pretty good. It was the best in the ACC, and among the best in the country.
• We actually shot pretty well on 2-point jumpers, at 40%. It's not been unusual in the past for that number to be below the 3 point %. That being said, even shooting 40% meant that we picked up just 0.80 points per shot on 535 of our shots. On the other shots, we netted 1.20 points per shot. Every 3, layup, dunk, and tip-in, in the aggregate, was worth half again as much as every 2-point jumper.
• Our shot distribution was good, but not great, and it got slightly worse against ACC opponents. We took 40.4% of our shots from 3, 31.4% from close in (layups, dunks, & tips), and 28.2% from all other spots inside the arc. In ACC play, we kept the jumpers reasonably low - 28.9%, but skewed more toward 3s than toward inside (41.5% deep, 29.6% close in). From pure statistical purposes, I'm not sure exactly what the ideal split is, but my gut sense is that I'd like 2 point jumpers closer to 25% or below with the other shots evenly split between 3s and close.
• We left a lot of points on the floor from bad shooting on layups. We shot 55.5% on layups (54.6% if you include tips), which is really not great. Shooting 60% on layups and tips, which is attainable, would have yielded us an extra 52 points.
• All of our ACC shooting was much worse than our non-ACC shooting. We went from shooting 44%/62.6%/41% (2pt jumpers, layups/dunks/tips, 3s) in pre-conference play to 37.2%/59.3%/38.6% against ACC opposition. Some regression is expected, both because of quality of opponent and because shooting a collective 42.2% on jump shots isn't really sustainable, but this was a big drop off.

All

2pt J	214	535	40.00%
Layup	256	461	55.53%
Dunk	96	109	88.07%
Tip-in	9	24	37.50%
3pt J	303	765	39.61%
LD	352	570	61.75%
LDT	361	594	60.77%
Jump	517	1300	39.77%
2s	575	1129	50.93%
All	878	1894	46.36%

Non-ACC

2pt J	98	223	43.95%
Layup	128	221	57.92%
Dunk	40	45	88.89%
Tip-in	4	9	44.44%
3pt J	130	317	41.01%
LD	168	266	63.16%
LDT	172	275	62.55%
Jump	228	540	42.22%
2s	270	498	54.22%
All	400	815	49.08%

ACC

2pt J	116	312	37.18%
Layup	128	240	53.33%
Dunk	56	64	87.50%
Tip-in	5	15	33.33%
3pt J	173	448	38.62%
LD	184	304	60.53%
LDT	189	319	59.25%
Jump	289	760	38.03%
2s	305	631	48.34%
All	478	1079	44.30%

For the categories above that aren't obvious, LD is layups + dunks, LDT is layups + dunks + tip-ins, and Jump is 2pt jumpers + 3s. And, just a reminder, all numbers above and throughout this thread do not include @UNC or the ACCCG.

[pfrduke]

I'm torn on what I think about Jabari's ability to finish. In one sense, getting 58 dunks (almost 2/game) is strong finishing. In another sense, shooting 47.8% on layups very much is not. Lot's of room for improvement there - upping that to 60% is another ~30 points to Parker alone.

Jabari's 3-point shooting - and jump shooting as a whole - fell off dramatically in ACC play. He hit 42.6% of his 3s and 45.2% of all jumpers in non-ACC play against 29.6% from 3 and 32.0% on all jumpers in ACC play.

The other observation I have on Jabari is that, somewhat contrary to what I thought watching the games, his shot selection didn't really change over the season. In non-ACC play, he took 79/81/47 shots (2pt jumpers, close in, 3s); in ACC play it was 99/102/54. Slightly fewer 3s as a proportion of his attempts, but not really a different profile. He should aim for more of a 50/50 distribution.

All

2pt J	70	178	39.33%
Layup	54	113	47.79%
Dunk	58	64	90.63%
Tip-in	2	6	33.33%
3pt J	36	101	35.64%
LD	112	177	63.28%
LDT	114	183	62.30%
Jump	106	279	37.99%
2s	184	361	50.97%
All	220	462	47.62%

Non-ACC

2pt J	37	79	46.84%
Layup	26	52	50.00%
Dunk	22	26	84.62%
Tip-in	1	3	33.33%
3pt J	20	47	42.55%
LD	48	78	61.54%
LDT	49	81	60.49%
Jump	57	126	45.24%
2s	86	160	53.75%
All	106	207	51.21%

ACC

2pt J	33	99	33.33%
Layup	28	61	45.90%
Dunk	36	38	94.74%
Tip-in	1	3	33.33%
3pt J	16	54	29.63%
LD	64	99	64.65%
LDT	65	102	63.73%
Jump	49	153	32.03%
2s	98	201	48.76%
All	114	255	44.71%

[pfrduke]

No single player was more reliant on 2 point jump shots relative to total 2 point attempts than Hood, and only Dawkins and Thornton (who collectively took 5 of every 6 shots from 3) were more total jump shot heavy. He took roughly 1 in 5 of his shots from close in and was down around 1 in 6 in ACC play. For someone who lined up as our 4 for a not insignificant amount of minutes, that's simply not enough inside play. It also supports why he's being profiled as a 2 at the next level - his game is shooting moreso than getting to the rim.

All

2pt J	63	146	43.15%
Layup	34	60	56.67%
Dunk	14	16	87.50%
Tip-in	1	1	100.00%
3pt J	67	161	41.61%
LD	48	76	63.16%
LDT	49	77	63.64%
Jump	130	307	42.35%
2s	112	223	50.22%
All	179	384	46.61%

Non-ACC

2pt J	29	61	47.54%
Layup	17	29	58.62%
Dunk	6	6	100.00%
Tip-in	1	1	100.00%
3pt J	23	54	42.59%
LD	23	35	65.71%
LDT	24	36	66.67%
Jump	52	115	45.22%
2s	53	97	54.64%
All	76	151	50.33%

ACC

2pt J	34	85	40.00%
Layup	17	31	54.84%
Dunk	8	10	80.00%
Tip-in	0	0	0.00%
3pt J	44	107	41.12%
LD	25	41	60.98%
LDT	25	41	60.98%
Jump	78	192	40.63%
2s	59	126	46.83%
All	103	233	44.21%

[pfrduke]

Quinn was skewed toward 3s, but when he did venture inside the arc, he did it at the rim far more often than not - basically 3 layups for every 2 two point jumpers. He was also an excellent finisher for a small guard - nearly 60% on layups overall, although much better in non-ACC play (67%) than in conference (50%).

All

2pt J	19	50	38.00%
Layup	48	81	59.26%
Dunk	0	0	0.00%
Tip-in	0	0	0.00%
3pt J	61	166	36.75%
LD	48	81	59.26%
LDT	48	81	59.26%
Jump	80	216	37.04%
2s	67	131	51.15%
All	128	297	43.10%

Non-ACC

2pt J	11	25	44.00%
Layup	29	43	67.44%
Dunk			0.00%
Tip-in			0.00%
3pt J	29	74	39.19%
LD	29	43	67.44%
LDT	29	43	67.44%
Jump	40	99	40.40%
2s	40	68	58.82%
All	69	142	48.59%

ACC

2pt J	8	25	32.00%
Layup	19	38	50.00%
Dunk	0	0	0.00%
Tip-in	0	0	0.00%
3pt J	32	92	34.78%
LD	19	38	50.00%
LDT	19	38	50.00%
Jump	40	117	34.19%
2s	27	63	42.86%
All	59	155	38.06%

[pfrduke]

Rasheed has the reverse distribution from Quinn inside the arc - half again as many jumpers as close in shots. While he took far fewer 3s, hew was more jumpshot dependent than Quinn (78% vs. 72%).

Some of the shot selection may have been performance driven - he was, considering volume, the worst finisher on the team, shooting 46.2% on layups overall and just 42.9% on them in ACC play. Finishing better, and choosing to go to the rim, more than pulling up, will be necessary for further growth.

Sheed also had an excellent finish to the season from 3 - 45.5% in ACC play. That was one of the only areas of shot improvement from non-conference to conference play across the team as a whole.

All

2pt J	29	78	37.18%
Layup	24	52	46.15%
Dunk	1	1	100.00%
Tip-in	0	0	0.00%
3pt J	43	100	43.00%
LD	25	53	47.17%
LDT	25	53	47.17%
Jump	72	178	40.45%
2s	54	131	41.22%
All	97	231	41.99%

Non-ACC

2pt J	9	28	32.14%
Layup	9	17	52.94%
Dunk	1	1	100.00%
Tip-in			0.00%
3pt J	13	34	38.24%
LD	10	18	55.56%
LDT	10	18	55.56%
Jump	22	62	35.48%
2s	19	46	41.30%
All	32	80	40.00%

ACC

2pt J	20	50	40.00%
Layup	15	35	42.86%
Dunk	0	0	0.00%
Tip-in	0	0	0.00%
3pt J	30	66	45.45%
LD	15	35	42.86%
LDT	15	35	42.86%
Jump	50	116	43.10%
2s	35	85	41.18%
All	65	151	43.05%

[pfrduke]

No surprises here - Dre took over 80% of his shots from deep and just 6.2% at the rim.

All

2pt J	12	23	52.17%
Layup	3	6	50.00%
Dunk	2	4	50.00%
Tip-in	1	1	100.00%
3pt J	61	144	42.36%
LD	5	10	50.00%
LDT	6	11	54.55%
Jump	73	167	43.71%
2s	18	34	52.94%
All	79	178	44.38%

Non-ACC

2pt J	4	6	66.67%
Layup	2	3	66.67%
Dunk	1	1	100.00%
Tip-in			0.00%
3pt J	30	64	46.88%
LD	3	4	75.00%
LDT	3	4	75.00%
Jump	34	70	48.57%
2s	7	10	70.00%
All	37	74	50.00%

ACC

2pt J	8	17	47.06%
Layup	1	3	33.33%
Dunk	1	3	33.33%
Tip-in	1	1	100.00%
3pt J	31	80	38.75%
LD	2	6	33.33%
LDT	3	7	42.86%
Jump	39	97	40.21%
2s	11	24	45.83%
All	42	104	40.38%

[pfrduke]

Amile finished well. Yes, much of these shots came off of assists and offensive rebounds (which includes more than just straight tip-ins - and that's a good thing, because he needs some work on tip buckets), but he also finished the opportunities he got there to the tune of 67% from close in overall (68.8% in ACC play).

All

2pt J	11	21	52.38%
Layup	65	96	67.71%
Dunk	10	11	90.91%
Tip-in	2	8	25.00%
3pt J	0	0	0.00%
LD	75	107	70.09%
LDT	77	115	66.96%
Jump	11	21	52.38%
2s	88	136	64.71%
All	88	136	64.71%

Non-ACC

2	5	40.00%
28	44	63.64%
4	5	80.00%
1	2	50.00%
		0.00%
32	49	65.31%
33	51	64.71%
2	5	40.00%
35	56	62.50%
35	56	62.50%

ACC

2pt J	9	16	56.25%
Layup	37	52	71.15%
Dunk	6	6	100.00%
Tip-in	1	6	16.67%
3pt J	0	0	0.00%
LD	43	58	74.14%
LDT	44	64	68.75%
Jump	9	16	56.25%
2s	53	80	66.25%
All	53	80	66.25%

[pfrduke]

Never ventured inside the arc, particularly once ACC play rolled around when 41 of his 45 shots came from 3. He took 1 layup in the 19 ACC games captured here.

All

2pt J	2	7	28.57%
Layup	3	7	42.86%
Dunk	0	0	0.00%
Tip-in	0	1	0.00%
3pt J	27	59	45.76%
LD	3	7	42.86%
LDT	3	8	37.50%
Jump	29	66	43.94%
2s	5	15	33.33%
All	32	74	43.24%

Non-ACC

2pt J	1	4	25.00%
Layup	3	6	50.00%
Dunk			0.00%
Tip-in		1	0.00%
3pt J	9	18	50.00%
LD	3	6	50.00%
LDT	3	7	42.86%
Jump	10	22	45.45%
2s	4	11	36.36%
All	13	29	44.83%

ACC

2pt J	1	3	33.33%
Layup	0	1	0.00%
Dunk	0	0	0.00%
Tip-in	0	0	0.00%
3pt J	18	41	43.90%
LD	0	1	0.00%
LDT	0	1	0.00%
Jump	19	44	43.18%
2s	1	4	25.00%
All	19	45	42.22%

[pfrduke]

Basically everything at the rim and pretty strong at finishing - 73.7% close in - although virtually none of that was self-created. He made only one shot away from the rim all season.

All

2pt J	1	7	14.29%
Layup	8	11	72.73%
Dunk	6	7	85.71%
Tip-in	0	1	0.00%
3pt J	0	0	0.00%
LD	14	18	77.78%
LDT	14	19	73.68%
Jump	1	7	14.29%
2s	15	26	57.69%
All	15	26	57.69%

Non-ACC

2pt J	1	3	33.33%
Layup	2	2	100.00%
Dunk	2	2	100.00%
Tip-in			0.00%
3pt J			0.00%
LD	4	4	100.00%
LDT	4	4	100.00%
Jump	1	3	33.33%
2s	5	7	71.43%
All	5	7	71.43%

ACC

2pt J	0	4	0.00%
Layup	6	9	66.67%
Dunk	4	5	80.00%
Tip-in	0	1	0.00%
3pt J	0	0	0.00%
LD	10	14	71.43%
LDT	10	15	66.67%
Jump	0	4	0.00%
2s	10	19	52.63%
All	10	19	52.63%

[pfrduke]

Matt shot under 30% from the floor on the season and took over 40% of his shots from 3 despite hitting just 1 in 7 of them. Jump shooting (22.9% on the year) is the biggest area of improvement, although his finishing has room to grow as well.

All

2pt J	5	14	35.71%
Layup	6	15	40.00%
Dunk	1	1	100.00%
Tip-in	0	0	0.00%
3pt J	3	21	14.29%
LD	7	16	43.75%
LDT	7	16	43.75%
Jump	8	35	22.86%
2s	12	30	40.00%
All	15	51	29.41%

Non-ACC

2pt J	4	8	50.00%
Layup	2	8	25.00%
Dunk	1	1	100.00%
Tip-in			0.00%
3pt J	2	14	14.29%
LD	3	9	33.33%
LDT	3	9	33.33%
Jump	6	22	27.27%
2s	7	17	41.18%
All	9	31	29.03%

ACC

2pt J	1	6	16.67%
Layup	4	7	57.14%
Dunk	0	0	0.00%
Tip-in	0	0	0.00%
3pt J	1	7	14.29%
LD	4	7	57.14%
LDT	4	7	57.14%
Jump	2	13	15.38%
2s	5	13	38.46%
All	6	20	30.00%

[pfrduke]

He did a better job eliminating the jumpers from his game - just 10 in 34 attempts, with everything else coming at the rim.

All

2pt J	2	9	22.22%
Layup	8	13	61.54%
Dunk	4	5	80.00%
Tip-in	3	6	50.00%
3pt J	0	1	0.00%
LD	12	18	66.67%
LDT	15	24	62.50%
Jump	2	10	20.00%
2s	17	33	51.52%
All	17	34	50.00%

Non-ACC

2pt J		3	0.00%
Layup	7	11	63.64%
Dunk	3	3	100.00%
Tip-in	1	2	50.00%
3pt J		1	0.00%
LD	10	14	71.43%
LDT	11	16	68.75%
Jump	0	4	0.00%
2s	11	19	57.89%
All	11	20	55.00%

ACC

2pt J	2	6	33.33%
Layup	1	2	50.00%
Dunk	1	2	50.00%
Tip-in	2	4	50.00%
3pt J	0	0	0.00%
LD	2	4	50.00%
LDT	4	8	50.00%
Jump	2	6	33.33%
2s	6	14	42.86%
All	6	14	42.86%

[pfrduke]

Not a lot to be gleaned from 14 shots on the season (Jabari and Rodney each had several games with more shots than that) but the initial distribution of 6 layups, 7 3s, and just 1 2-point jumper suggests smart shot selection. Really can't draw conclusions, though.

All

2pt J	0	1	0.00%
Layup	3	6	50.00%
Dunk	0	0	0.00%
Tip-in	0	0	0.00%
3pt J	4	7	57.14%
LD	3	6	50.00%
LDT	3	6	50.00%
Jump	4	8	50.00%
2s	3	7	42.86%
All	7	14	50.00%

Non-ACC

2pt J		1	0.00%
Layup	3	5	60.00%
Dunk			0.00%
Tip-in			0.00%
3pt J	3	6	50.00%
LD	3	5	60.00%
LDT	3	5	60.00%
Jump	3	7	42.86%
2s	3	6	50.00%
All	6	12	50.00%

ACC

2pt J	0	0	0.00%
Layup	0	1	0.00%
Dunk	0	0	0.00%
Tip-in	0	0	0.00%
3pt J	1	1	100.00%
LD	0	1	0.00%
LDT	0	1	0.00%
Jump	1	1	100.00%
2s	0	1	0.00%
All	1	2	50.00%

[Kedsy]

Wow, great work, pfrduke. I haven't finished studying this stuff enough to make a substantive comment, but thanks for all this effort.

[Des Esseintes]

Basically everything at the rim and pretty strong at finishing - 73.7% close in - although virtually none of that was self-created. He made only one shot away from the rim all season.

Ah, but we all remember that jump hook as if it were yesterday. I think greybeard argued Marshall could get 15ppg off it.

But seriously, thank you so much for these tables. They are beyond wonderful, and the amount of labor that went into them is evident.

[tommy]

I agree. This is simply fabulous work, pfr. I haven't had a chance to digest it either, but I feel I've been remiss in not acknowledging the tremendous effort you put forth to produce these tables. Thanks!