The Jabari Delusion

[NashvilleDevil]

Blake Griffin? Jared Sullinger? Worked out for Griffin, less so for Sullinger. But what's the difference between "no examples" and "definitely no examples"?

12 months

[Dev11]

12 months

Marcus Smart would be a good example, and he is probably the only one, as the 2014 draft has been viewed as a great top-heavy draft for the last 2 years, so lottery picks in 2013 were advised to leave at the time, to avoid going up against Parker, Randle, Wiggins, Gordon, etc. Smart is going to be drafted this year well below where he likely would have gone last year.

[gumbomoop]

Was Harrison Barnes a "projected sure-fire lottery pick"? How far had he fallen after his frosh season?

[InSpades]

Marcus Smart would be a good example, and he is probably the only one, as the 2014 draft has been viewed as a great top-heavy draft for the last 2 years, so lottery picks in 2013 were advised to leave at the time, to avoid going up against Parker, Randle, Wiggins, Gordon, etc. Smart is going to be drafted this year well below where he likely would have gone last year.

The 1st 2 mock drafts I pulled up had Smart going 4th and 6th. How is that "well below" anything? There's no guarantee he would have even gone higher than that last year. Maybe he would have... but certainly no guarantee. There were some stunningly bad picks in last year's draft but that just goes to show how unpredictable it is.

[NashvilleDevil]

Nope, it's a delusion. Sure there are and have been numerous reports out there since he came to Duke saying that he was seriously considering staying, but he's definitely going pro. There are no examples of a projected sure-fire lottery pick staying in college, and definitely no examples within the last 12 months.

There may not be but Jabari is going to be a lottery pick regardless of the draft he enters. I have said it a couple of times, next year's class does not project to be as deep as this one. If he goes he's a top 3 pick in a loaded draft. If he stays and improves off a consensus All-American year then he is probably going first.

[InSpades]

Blake Griffin? Jared Sullinger? Worked out for Griffin, less so for Sullinger. But what's the difference between "no examples" and "definitely no examples"?

"Definitely" implies more use of sarcasm .

[gurufrisbee]

Whether Jabari returns or not, Cook only getting 20 minutes a game is a horrible thing for the team.

[johnb]

IFor example you could have Miles Plumlee, Shelden Williams, Mike Dunleavy, J.J. Redick and Kyrie Irving on a team and have a 5-4-3-2-1 with clearly defined roles (just an example, not an ideal)...

That might not be ideal, but it would come fairly close.

[Dev11]

The 1st 2 mock drafts I pulled up had Smart going 4th and 6th. How is that "well below" anything? There's no guarantee he would have even gone higher than that last year. Maybe he would have... but certainly no guarantee. There were some stunningly bad picks in last year's draft but that just goes to show how unpredictable it is.

I recall a lot of talk of him going #1 before they had the lottery. I don't think Cleveland was taking him #1 but still, it feels like a drop.

[InSpades]

I recall a lot of talk of him going #1 before they had the lottery. I don't think Cleveland was taking him #1 but still, it feels like a drop.

It's reasonable to think he would have gone 2nd to Orlando (reports were they were very high on him). So if he goes #4 (which is probably optimistic) it is a drop. But it's certainly not "well below" #2. I think he knew what he was signing up for when he came back. He wasn't oblivious to the reports on Parker and Wiggins.

[flyingdutchdevil]

...and there is world peace, no hunger, and a pony for every child, I believe the line-up will look like the following:

1: Tyus Jones
2: Rasheed Sulaimon
3: Matt Jones
4: Jabari Parker
5: Jahlil Okafor

Before you question my decisions, let me explain. For me, only the 5 is a certainty. I don't see any scenario, barring injury, in which Okafor doesn't start. Parker will start. And I believe he'll start at the 4 because his skillset is perfect for the 4: he can post up, take his man off the dribble, and has a decent jump shot. At the 3, Jabari doesn't have a reliable enough jumpshot. Also, if we have Amile Jefferson at the 4, that is three players from the 3-5 who are better in the paint then on the outside. And Coach K rarely, if ever, does that (Singler had a beautiful jumpshot. His outside game was 10x his inside game). Thus, it only makes sense that Jabari and Okafor are at the 4 and 5.

At the 1, it'll be Jones or Cook. Whoever has a) a better handle and b) better defense will get the nod. I don't think Coach K will start both as both are incredibly talented offensive players and not great defensively (at least what I've read about Tyus Jones). At the 2, I think it's Sulaimon. He is our best returning defensive player (not saying much) and second best returning offensive player (plus the best 3pt shooter).

And that leaves the last position. Given that we are stacked offensively at the 1, 2, 4, and 5, we need a defensive specialist. I went with Matt Jones because he has spent a year in the system and loves defense. He's a more talented Tyler Thornton with better height. If he can somehow find his jumpshot, that would be a pleasant surprise. This position could also go to Justise Winslow if he is better than Matt Jones at D.

Bottomline, with a rotation of 2 superstar freshman (unknown D but probably not great D), 1 senior with a great handle, reliable shot, and terrible D (Cook), 2 juniors who are decent at D but not great (Sulaimon and Jefferson), 1 man-child who hopefully improves on all fronts (Semi), and the most gifted offensive player in the country but has the reverse talent on D (Jabari), Winslow/Matt Jones will combine to play many, many minutes.

You think Coach K is going to have 2 inept defensive years in a row? He'll start at least one defensive-minded player.

[JasonEvans]

In a world where Jabari returns and there is world peace, no hunger, and a pony for every child...

... but sign me up!!

[Kedsy]

If he stays and improves off a consensus All-American year then he is probably going first.

Unless one of his teammates goes ahead of him.

[BluDvlsN1]

Unless one of his teammates goes ahead of him.

Well played, sir.

[yancem]

You mean other than Marcus Smart?

Please realize that we enter Jabari Delusion World voluntarily and confine your negativity (realism?) to other threads, thank you.

I'm guessing the use of the absolute "no" and the inclusion of "definitely no examples within the last 12 months" indicates a note of sarcasm. There are of course dozens of examples of "projected sure-fire lottery pick staying in college".

[yancem]

Whether Jabari returns or not, Cook only getting 20 minutes a game is a horrible thing for the team.

Can you expound on this thought? I'm not saying that Cook can't/won't average more than 20 minutes a game but I think that it is possible that Tyus Jones (a top 5 recruit) could come in and be a star at the point like Ennis last year or Irving did a few years back before his injury. Wouldn't that be a good thing for the team and probably limit Cook's playing time? It might not happen of course and Cook could work his but off this off season and have the type of season next year that many of us thought he would have this year but I think that there are at least a couple of possible scenarios where Cook not averaging 20 minutes a game is not only not horrible but quite possibly very good.

[Ichabod Drain]

Can you expound on this thought? I'm not saying that Cook can't/won't average more than 20 minutes a game but I think that it is possible that Tyus Jones (a top 5 recruit) could come in and be a star at the point like Ennis last year or Irving did a few years back before his injury. Wouldn't that be a good thing for the team and probably limit Cook's playing time? It might not happen of course and Cook could work his but off this off season and have the type of season next year that many of us thought he would have this year but I think that there are at least a couple of possible scenarios where Cook not averaging 20 minutes a game is not only not horrible but quite possibly very good.

Neither Kyrie or Ennis had a senior PG on their team who had started 60 games already. Not to mention Quinn will almost undoubtedly be a captain next year.

[yancem]

Neither Kyrie or Ennis had a senior PG on their team who had started 60 games already. Not to mention Quinn will almost undoubtedly be a captain next year.

Well, Kyrie had Nolan Smith on the team who had started 60 games and averaged 17ppg and 3apg the previous year and Seth Curry, a red shirt sophomore with a year of D1 experience and year practicing in the Duke system. Not exactly nobodies to beat out. Ennis may not have had anyone of note to beat out for a starting spot but that doesn't mean that he wouldn't have won the spot if there had been an incumbent. He had a very solid year against good competition. As for Cook being a captain, that didn't make Thornton or Hairston automatic starters. In fact it was Cook's poor play (from injury or other reason) that lead to Thornton finally getting the starting nod.

Also, I never said that Cook wouldn't start or play major minutes, I just questioned why it would be "horrible for the team" if he didn't. If Jones ends up as good as Ennis (which isn't a stretch) and Cook plays like he did the second half the year (tournament play withstanding because he seemed to get his game back on track the last few games) it might be bad for the team if does average more than 20 minutes. I'm not a Cook basher, I really thought that he was going to have a break out season this year and challenge as the top pg in the conference. Unfortunately that didn't happen. Personally, I'm hoping that Jones is as good as advertised and Cook lives up to his potential. If that happens, the offense should be even better next year than this year and with addition of a true center and a hard nosed sf in Winslow, hopefully the defense will be much improved as well.

[Ichabod Drain]

Well, Kyrie had Nolan Smith on the team who had started 60 games and averaged 17ppg and 3apg the previous year and Seth Curry, a red shirt sophomore with a year of D1 experience and year practicing in the Duke system. Not exactly nobodies to beat out. Ennis may not have had anyone of note to beat out for a starting spot but that doesn't mean that he wouldn't have won the spot if there had been an incumbent. He had a very solid year against good competition. As for Cook being a captain, that didn't make Thornton or Hairston automatic starters. In fact it was Cook's poor play (from injury or other reason) that lead to Thornton finally getting the starting nod.

Also, I never said that Cook wouldn't start or play major minutes, I just questioned why it would be "horrible for the team" if he didn't. If Jones ends up as good as Ennis (which isn't a stretch) and Cook plays like he did the second half the year (tournament play withstanding because he seemed to get his game back on track the last few games) it might be bad for the team if does average more than 20 minutes. I'm not a Cook basher, I really thought that he was going to have a break out season this year and challenge as the top pg in the conference. Unfortunately that didn't happen. Personally, I'm hoping that Jones is as good as advertised and Cook lives up to his potential. If that happens, the offense should be even better next year than this year and with addition of a true center and a hard nosed sf in Winslow, hopefully the defense will be much improved as well.

I never said anything in regards to your argument on Quinn playing more or less than 20 mpg being bad for the team. I was simply saying your comparisons of Kyrie and Ennis were pretty different than the situation for Duke and Cook next year.

You are correct that being captains didn't make Thornton and Hairston starters but they also only combined for roughly the same minutes as Cook by himself in their Junior seasons with less starts.

[Troublemaker]

Hmmm, if Jabari really did apply for housing, I think my Jabari delusion is at 40% now, gumbo. I think that's high enough for me to play in this sandbox you've created for us delusionists.

For competitive games:

30 Fr Tyus	20 Sr Quinn
30 Jr Sheed	...Fr Grayson	RS Matt
35 So Jabari	10 Fr Justise	RS Semi
35 Jr Amile	...FifthYrGrad
30 Fr Jahlil	10 Jr MP3

For blowouts:

30 Fr Tyus	15 Sr Quinn
30 Jr Sheed	5 Fr Grayson	RS Matt
30 So Jabari	15 Fr Justise	RS Semi
30 Jr Amile	5 FifthYrGrad
25 Fr Jahlil	15 Jr MP3

Redshirting Matt to give him another year to correct his shot.
Redshirting Semi to give him another year to adjust to this level of competition.