Musings Of 2014-15 Starters & Rotation Players

[kAzE]

With the above rotation, who are you expecting to play PF when Amile is off the floor? I think it very unlikely that Jahlil and Marshall will play much together, so either it's Justise at PF, with us going what you described as an "absurdly small," or it's Semi at PF, meaning he would have to be 8th in the rotation, rather than Matt.

Obviously if Jabari stays, the above wouldn't be a concern.

That's a really good point, but after thinking about it some, I don't think it would be absolutely crazy to play both Okafor and Plumlee at the same time. Okafor has a 10-15 foot jumper, and also good driving ability from the high post or baseline, so he could slide over to power forward in this scenario. I think he's more versatile than you are giving him credit for. He's a really talented kid, with a ton of skill.

Many of Coach K's 8 man rotations in the past only had 3 bigs, so I don't think it's too much of a stretch. Also, we used to play both Mason and Miles together for long stretches, and I would consider them both to be true centers at the NBA level. However, I don't think we'll see Okafor and Plumlee both on the floor together for long stretches of time because I believe Amile Jefferson will play as many minutes as he can handle.

[gumbomoop]

... I believe Amile Jefferson will play as many minutes as he can handle.

Amile committed some lazy, foolish fouls this season. I know he was shocked at some of the calls, but in at least some cases the calls were spot on. He put himself on the bench for too many minutes. Maybe he'll play smarter next season; but if not, I'm skeptical he'll get 30 mpg, as sometimes he'll be on the bench too early in the first half.

To put all cards on the table, I'm skeptical he'll get 30+ mpg, period, under any circumstance save multiple injuries.

[Kedsy]

That's a really good point, but after thinking about it some, I don't think it would be absolutely crazy to play both Okafor and Plumlee at the same time. Okafor has a 10-15 foot jumper, and also good driving ability from the high post or baseline, so he could slide over to power forward in this scenario. I think he's more versatile than you are giving him credit for. He's a really talented kid, with a ton of skill.

Many of Coach K's 8 man rotations in the past only had 3 bigs, so I don't think it's too much of a stretch. Also, we used to play both Mason and Miles together for long stretches, and I would consider them both to be true centers at the NBA level. However, I don't think we'll see Okafor and Plumlee both on the floor together for long stretches of time because I believe Amile Jefferson will play as many minutes as he can handle.

In the past, when we've had just three bigs in the rotation (frankly that's most years), we had at least one guy who could play C, at least one guy who could play PF, and at least one guy who could play both positions. Obviously we'll have to see, but at the moment I think we're looking at a C, a C, and a PF/C, which means we need a backup PF. I'm fairly confident Marshall isn't going to play the 4, so the question remains whether Jahlil can defend opposing power forwards (and also provide enough spacing for the offense to run). If he can, then you're right. If not, then I think Semi is our 8th man (assuming Jabari and Rodney both go pro).

Also, Jahlil may have a 10 to 15 footer and good driving ability in high school, but it remains to be seen whether he has that shot or that ability in college. Totally different world.

[COYS]

Amile committed some lazy, foolish fouls this season. I know he was shocked at some of the calls, but in at least some cases the calls were spot on. He put himself on the bench for too many minutes. Maybe he'll play smarter next season; but if not, I'm skeptical he'll get 30 mpg, as sometimes he'll be on the bench too early in the first half.

To put all cards on the table, I'm skeptical he'll get 30+ mpg, period, under any circumstance save multiple injuries.

Amile's season, much like the rest of the team, featured some peaks and valleys. However, on the defensive side of things, I thought Amile had just about the highest and longest lasting peak of any of our players. He played excellent defense for a long streak after the Clemson loss. He was fast to rotate, hedged well, and did well on switches. He did seem to tire and foul, but then again, so did our whole team. Of course, he was also guarding "up" a position, which definitely lends itself to more fouls and fatigue. I think he will benefit a LOT from Okafor and Marshall being around to handle a lot of the big bodies. Amile's long arms and quickness compared to many opposing 4's will be a real bonus on D. Plus, I think we'll continue to see natural improvement from him now that he's got two seasons of experience. To be quite honest, I would be surprised if Amile is not a plus defender relative to the rest of the team next year. I look for him to become a little bit like the versatile defender Lance was on the 2010 team, only with better rebounding numbers and scoring ability.

As a quick side note, after the 2007 season, Duke's worst since the mid-90's and the worst Duke offense that I can remember, Coach K completely revamped the offense and a team that featured many of the same players from the previous year (Josh McRoberts and Dave McClure left, Singler, Nolan, and Taylor King came in) became a top 10 KenPom offense, again. It was hard to envision such a strong offensive team when just the year before the team had struggled so badly. Next year, I look for our defense to make a similar leap. I don't necessarily expect it to be all the way into the top 10, but I will be utterly shocked if we don't see a VAST improvement from our team defense next year that makes us forget this season's defensive struggles really quickly.

[CDu]

In the past, when we've had just three bigs in the rotation (frankly that's most years), we had at least one guy who could play C, at least one guy who could play PF, and at least one guy who could play both positions. Obviously we'll have to see, but at the moment I think we're looking at a C, a C, and a PF/C, which means we need a backup PF. I'm fairly confident Marshall isn't going to play the 4, so the question remains whether Jahlil can defend opposing power forwards (and also provide enough spacing for the offense to run). If he can, then you're right. If not, then I think Semi is our 8th man (assuming Jabari and Rodney both go pro).

Also, Jahlil may have a 10 to 15 footer and good driving ability in high school, but it remains to be seen whether he has that shot or that ability in college. Totally different world.

Defensively, I'd say we have a C, a C, and a PF. Offensively, I would say we have two Cs and a limited-range PF. I agree though that the need is another PF, and preferaly one who can actually stretch the defense. I don't see a pairing of Okafor and Plumlee working nearly as well as a Plumlee/Plumlee pairing. Okafor is a bit lumbering, and Plumlee isn't suited to chase smaller PF around the court.

Basically, while Okafor's arrival is good for Duke, I don't think it is great for Plumlee's opportunities next season. Whereas this year the team makeup was such that he could play as many minutes as he could handle (he pairs adequately with Jefferson and very nicely with Parker), next year he'll be limited to whatever minutes Okafor can't handle... And that is at best; there is always the chance that Coach K goes fairly small with Jefferson and Ojeleye at C and PF when Okafor is out.

[kAzE]

Defensively, I'd say we have a C, a C, and a PF. Offensively, I would say we have two Cs and a limited-range PF. I agree though that the need is another PF, and preferaly one who can actually stretch the defense. I don't see a pairing of Okafor and Plumlee working nearly as well as a Plumlee/Plumlee pairing. Okafor is a bit lumbering, and Plumlee isn't suited to chase smaller PF around the court.

Basically, while Okafor's arrival is good for Duke, I don't think it is great for Plumlee's opportunities next season. Whereas this year the team makeup was such that he could play as many minutes as he could handle (he pairs adequately with Jefferson and very nicely with Parker), next year he'll be limited to whatever minutes Okafor can't handle... And that is at best; there is always the chance that Coach K goes fairly small with Jefferson and Ojeleye at C and PF when Okafor is out.

That seems unlikely to me, given that Plumlee showed some real promise towards the end of the year, and that he is the logical back up at C, but if it is true that Okafor and Plumlee can't play together defensively, I guess we'd have no other choice but to have Ojeleye play spot minutes PF.

Still, I'm not as skeptical about pairing both centers together. It can't be all that bad, especially when you have a guy like Winslow who can guard pretty much 4 positions, and cover up mistakes on defense (at least I hope that's what he is). We'd certainly have a massive advantage in the paint with 2 centers on the floor. It would be at least extremely difficult to for opponents to find space to get to the rim. The only time that it would really hurt us is if the other team had a Ryan Kelly type stretch 4 who could really force us to guard him on the perimeter.

Of course, Jabari coming back solves everything. I support Jabari no matter what he does, but, boy, he'd be the perfect piece to fit into next year's puzzle for sure. What a lineup that would be. Jabari/Okafor/Jefferson/Winslow/Plumlee would be the best front court by a mile in the nation.

[Kedsy]

Defensively, I'd say we have a C, a C, and a PF. Offensively, I would say we have two Cs and a limited-range PF. I agree though that the need is another PF, and preferaly one who can actually stretch the defense. I don't see a pairing of Okafor and Plumlee working nearly as well as a Plumlee/Plumlee pairing. Okafor is a bit lumbering, and Plumlee isn't suited to chase smaller PF around the court.

Basically, while Okafor's arrival is good for Duke, I don't think it is great for Plumlee's opportunities next season. Whereas this year the team makeup was such that he could play as many minutes as he could handle (he pairs adequately with Jefferson and very nicely with Parker), next year he'll be limited to whatever minutes Okafor can't handle... And that is at best; there is always the chance that Coach K goes fairly small with Jefferson and Ojeleye at C and PF when Okafor is out.

I agree that Marshall will have to earn his 10 to 15 minutes a game. I suspect it'll be closer to 15, because freshman centers at Duke tend not to play so many minutes, even luminaries like Brand (23.5, although he also had an injury to deal with); Boozer (23.7); S Williams (19.2); Laettner (16.9); Mason Plumlee (14.1); Parks (12.8); Bilas (23.0); and so on, so I'd be surprised if Jahlil Okafor played more than 25 mpg.

[gumbomoop]

Amile's season, much like the rest of the team, featured some peaks and valleys. However, on the defensive side of things, I thought Amile had just about the highest and longest lasting peak of any of our players. He played excellent defense for a long streak after the Clemson loss. He was fast to rotate, hedged well, and did well on switches. He did seem to tire and foul, but then again, so did our whole team. Of course, he was also guarding "up" a position, which definitely lends itself to more fouls and fatigue. I think he will benefit a LOT from Okafor and Marshall being around to handle a lot of the big bodies. Amile's long arms and quickness compared to many opposing 4's will be a real bonus on D. Plus, I think we'll continue to see natural improvement from him now that he's got two seasons of experience. To be quite honest, I would be surprised if Amile is not a plus defender relative to the rest of the team next year. I look for him to become a little bit like the versatile defender Lance was on the 2010 team, only with better rebounding numbers and scoring ability.

Yes, good points. My comment about Amile's sometimes-penchant for the lazy foul was in response to kAzE's suggestion that Amile would get "as many minutes as he can handle" and to flyingdutchdevil's thought that Amile might get an Iron Man's "32+ mpg." My response was perhaps too narrow, focusing on what I do see as a problem, without giving him credit for likely smarter play next season. I was so very impressed with how smart Amile seemed to play when I saw him on TV as a HS senior, that I probably over-reacted this season with too much irritation at his sometimes-not-smart fouling.

I've no doubt Amile will play lots, as he's the only certain 4 on the team (always keeping in mind that the default assumption in this thread is, no Jabari). That he's no stretch-4, however, will as much as the occasional lazy foul probably keep him under 30 mpg. I can see several quite different scenarios for the 10-15 non-Amile mpg: (1) Semi comes on strong, and he is potentially a stretch-4; (2) Justise plays some at the 4 as well as at the wing/3; this scenario, of course, means some small-ball, as the wing/3 who plays at same time as Justise is playing the 4 will be shorter than Justise; (3) a few minutes each half of Twin Towers/high-low post with Jahlil and Marshall. Did we see some of this with Miles and Mason in 2011-12?

Unless Amile does in fact become an Iron Man, so steely that he plays the highest mpg on the team (!!), one or more of the above 3 scenarios seems certain. Maybe some of each pre-ACC.

[tommy]

If I was part of the staff, I would have Amile Jefferson shooting about 1000 jump shots a day from between 10 and 15 feet away from the basket. Half of them from the free throw line area. Do that, and spend the rest of his time in the weight room. If he's going to play major minutes alongside a low post presence like Jahlil, and he is, he's simply got to be able to hit a midrange jumper. I think that's a key, key point of development for this team offensively.

I know it doesn't look like we're going to have any other choices barring a surprise commitment from Miles Turner, but I'm concerned about Semi playing PF for any kind of extended minutes. Besides the fact that he was not ready to play this past year, so nobody really has any clear idea of how good he is, he's only 6'6". And while he jumps well, still, that's pretty short for a PF. Winslow, the same. Having a 6'6" PF along with, at times, third guards (Matt Jones or Rasheed) playing the SF position, is concerning. Not fatal, especially given the defensive potential of some of those lineup combinations, but still, feels pretty short to me.

[kAzE]

If I was part of the staff, I would have Amile Jefferson shooting about 1000 jump shots a day from between 10 and 15 feet away from the basket. Half of them from the free throw line area. Do that, and spend the rest of his time in the weight room. If he's going to play major minutes alongside a low post presence like Jahlil, and he is, he's simply got to be able to hit a midrange jumper. I think that's a key, key point of development for this team offensively.

This is totally my train of thought as well. The form on his shot looks good, it just doesn't go in consistently. If he could develop Lance Thomas' free throw line jumper, it would totally change everything.

[Troublemaker]

If I was part of the staff, I would have Amile Jefferson shooting about 1000 jump shots a day from between 10 and 15 feet away from the basket. Half of them from the free throw line area. Do that, and spend the rest of his time in the weight room. If he's going to play major minutes alongside a low post presence like Jahlil, and he is, he's simply got to be able to hit a midrange jumper. I think that's a key, key point of development for this team offensively.

I don't want to provide false hope on this front, but has anyone ever seen the following video: http://youtu.be/m223V2uRuEU?t=33s

It's Amile (and fellow D-1 player Dave Appolon from Robert Morris) working with a Philly-area trainer last summer on perimeter skills.

Improving his perimeter game has obviously been on Amile's mind for awhile now (I'm sure with much encouragement and help from the Duke staff as well). I mean, if he has any NBA aspirations whatsoever at his size, he's going to have to be able to hit a perimeter shot.

Anyway, Amile looks not-too-bad shooting the ball in this video. He's also shooting against air, not against a defender. That's where the false hope comes in. But he looks okay.

[dyedwab]

Amile committed some lazy, foolish fouls this season. I know he was shocked at some of the calls, but in at least some cases the calls were spot on. He put himself on the bench for too many minutes. Maybe he'll play smarter next season; but if not, I'm skeptical he'll get 30 mpg, as sometimes he'll be on the bench too early in the first half.

To put all cards on the table, I'm skeptical he'll get 30+ mpg, period, under any circumstance save multiple injuries.

re: Fouls. Playing good defense without fouling is, to me, the most important thing Amile can work on in the off-season. And it is not a hopeless cause. Shelden Williams average 6.5 fouls/40m in his freshman year, and 4.98 fouls/40min his sophomore year, but dropped that to 3.4 fouls/40 minutes in his junior year.

So it can happen

[gumbomoop]

re: Fouls. Playing good defense without fouling is, to me, the most important thing Amile can work on in the off-season. And it is not a hopeless cause. Shelden Williams average 6.5 fouls/40m in his freshman year, and 4.98 fouls/40min his sophomore year, but dropped that to 3.4 fouls/40 minutes in his junior year.

So it can happen

It looks like Amile averaged 4.68/40 this season, so getting that down to 3.5-4/40 would be good, and he can do that probably by eliminating most of the silly ones. He's obviously not the only player in the country to commit such useless fouls, but it really hurts when he does this a couple of times within a few minutes in the first half or early second. In close games -- which should always be the default assumption -- every play counts; and dumb plays are just dumb.

[roywhite]

If I was part of the staff, I would have Amile Jefferson shooting about 1000 jump shots a day from between 10 and 15 feet away from the basket. Half of them from the free throw line area. Do that, and spend the rest of his time in the weight room. If he's going to play major minutes alongside a low post presence like Jahlil, and he is, he's simply got to be able to hit a midrange jumper. I think that's a key, key point of development for this team offensively.

I know it doesn't look like we're going to have any other choices barring a surprise commitment from Miles Turner, but I'm concerned about Semi playing PF for any kind of extended minutes. Besides the fact that he was not ready to play this past year, so nobody really has any clear idea of how good he is, he's only 6'6". And while he jumps well, still, that's pretty short for a PF. Winslow, the same. Having a 6'6" PF along with, at times, third guards (Matt Jones or Rasheed) playing the SF position, is concerning. Not fatal, especially given the defensive potential of some of those lineup combinations, but still, feels pretty short to me.

I don't want to provide false hope on this front, but has anyone ever seen the following video: http://youtu.be/m223V2uRuEU?t=33s

It's Amile (and fellow D-1 player Dave Appolon from Robert Morris) working with a Philly-area trainer last summer on perimeter skills.

Improving his perimeter game has obviously been on Amile's mind for awhile now (I'm sure with much encouragement and help from the Duke staff as well). I mean, if he has any NBA aspirations whatsoever at his size, he's going to have to be able to hit a perimeter shot.

Anyway, Amile looks not-too-bad shooting the ball in this video. He's also shooting against air, not against a defender. That's where the false hope comes in. But he looks okay.

It looks like Amile averaged 4.68/40 this season, so getting that down to 3.5-4/40 would be good, and he can do that probably by eliminating most of the silly ones. He's obviously not the only player in the country to commit such useless fouls, but it really hurts when he does this a couple of times within a few minutes in the first half or early second. In close games -- which should always be the default assumption -- every play counts; and dumb plays are just dumb.

Agree that Amile is a key player for next year. Improved shooting ability would be wonderful

A couple other points:
Amile seemed fairly competent and confident in the ball handling he did last year (most of which was a few dribbles and a hand off, but he rarely made mistakes in that area); passing to Okafor down low or shooters on the perimeter will be an important skill for Amile and he has the capability to do it

His leadership will be important -- seems well liked by his teammates and capable of doing more on the court talking and directing

[SoCalDukeFan]

Writes about this season and next. Link

Next year the 3 main guards should be T. Jones, Rasheed, and Quinn. I think this year Rasheed at the start and Quinn most of the season had problems with their roles. To me the most important thing will be for them to be with the program all year at a high level. Oak should improve the interior defense which should help as well. I think the rest will take care of itself.

SoCal

[tommy]

Writes about this season and next. Link

Next year the 3 main guards should be T. Jones, Rasheed, and Quinn. I think this year Rasheed at the start and Quinn most of the season had problems with their roles. To me the most important thing will be for them to be with the program all year at a high level. Oak should improve the interior defense which should help as well. I think the rest will take care of itself.

SoCal

Just as an FYI, cuz I think I've seen either you or another poster or two refer to him this way, nobody calls Jahlil Okafor "Oak." It's not his nickname. Of course you're free to call him whatever you want, but again, just an FYI - that's not what he goes by.

[SoCalDukeFan]

I am spelling challenged.

[kAzE]

Just as an FYI, cuz I think I've seen either you or another poster or two refer to him this way, nobody calls Jahlil Okafor "Oak." It's not his nickname. Of course you're free to call him whatever you want, but again, just an FYI - that's not what he goes by.

I believe "Big Jah" is something he occasionally responds to.

[Kedsy]

I'm concerned about Semi playing PF for any kind of extended minutes. Besides the fact that he was not ready to play this past year, so nobody really has any clear idea of how good he is, he's only 6'6". And while he jumps well, still, that's pretty short for a PF.

Duke lists Semi as 6'7", 230. With his strength and hops, I'd have no problem with him playing PF. Not many (if any) college PFs that could outmuscle him or push him around, and not many who could shoot over him if he was in ready defensive position. Justise's ability to play PF is more unknown, because I believe he really is 6'6" and neither as bulky nor as strong as Semi, and I can't imagine he jumps higher. Plus, he's a freshman.

Also, if Semi plays 10 minutes of PF, there's a reasonable chance that Justise would play SF alongside him. If Semi's buried on the bench and Justise moves up to PF for 10 minutes a game, he'd have Rasheed or Matt at SF alongside him, and Semi/Justise is way bigger than Justise/Matt or Justise/Rasheed.

[COYS]

Writes about this season and next. Link

Next year the 3 main guards should be T. Jones, Rasheed, and Quinn. I think this year Rasheed at the start and Quinn most of the season had problems with their roles. To me the most important thing will be for them to be with the program all year at a high level.
SoCal

I think this observation is spot on. I know others (myself included) have mentioned this, too. Aside from Jabari, Rodney and Tyler, it seemed as if the roles of all the other guys (and their place in the rotation) were in flux all year. Ultimately, I think the instability hurt the team. After the 2007 season, Coach K decided against multiple captains and gave DeMarcus Nelson the captaincy for his senior season. I wonder if the staff will attempt to do the same thing with the rotation for this upcoming season. Obviously, part of the reason the rotation never stabilized is because the performance of the guards fluctuated so much. Rasheed started the year playing poorly. Quinn went into a slump. Andre never quite rose to the level of a consistent contributor. Matt's offense was really bad despite his strong (for a freshman) defense. Something like that could always happen again. On the other hand, I think that perhaps the staff miscalculated how hard it would be for the various players to adjust to their roles. I hope that the staff is better able to see what role suits each player the best and that the players themselves are working hard to become more versatile and consistent, no matter the role they fill.

With Laura Keely's tweets and Coach K's presser where he apparently appointed Tyus the early favorite to start with Quinn and Rasheed garnering most of the minutes, it already appears that the staff is looking to define roles more clearly for next season. I love that, at Duke, playing time is always earned and never awarded. I love that any player, through excellent performance in practice, can emerge as a starter in front of an established veteran or in place of a more highly ranked recruit. However, I do think that there is something to be said for consistency. I hope Rasheed and Quinn are up to the task of joining Tyus as the three primary guards on the team next year. I want/hope that Matt and Grayson are both able to contribute, as well, but nevertheless, I want our two veteran guards plus our incoming star point guard to seize the opportunity to lead the team on the perimeter, allowing Matt and Grayson to play supporting roles. I hope that this helps lead to more consistency in the rotation, especially by the time ACC play rolls around.