Musings Of 2014-15 Starters & Rotation Players

[wk2109]

Good grief. When is an older player with a lower ceiling a lesser option than a freshman with more ability/size?

I take your question to mean "when does an older experienced player with a lower ceiling finally become a lesser option than a freshman with more ability/size in the eyes of fans?" My answer to that question, specifically on message boards, is right when the freshman commits to Duke during high school. Considering that we haven't seen any of these freshmen play on the college level, I think the realistic approach to take is that unless there's a huge gap in talent (eg when a Jabari/Kyrie/Jahlil type player comes along), experience will win out. I've certainly fallen into the trap of loving the high school commits and envisioning them becoming stars from day 1, but that happens so rarely that I have to force myself to remember that these guys are just in high school.

I don't think people give Quinn enough credit. He's been the starting point guard on an Elite Eight team that spent several months as the #1 team in the country, and he wasn't just along for the ride either. He was an integral part of that team as a sophomore and I think it's certainly reasonable to expect him to be a starter as a senior. Could there be another Greg Paulus episode? Sure, but I don't expect it.

[_Gary]

It's funny. If Coach K hadn't done that press conference last week, I would've absolutely fielded all bets on who starts at PG, and I would've taken Quinn. Good thing for me Coach K had that presser! Still, I think Quinn is going to be in the mix there, too. I believe we have two positions up for grabs: the 1 and the 3, with only Sheed, Amile, and Jahlil as "near locks."

Shoot. So I lost the chance to make some easy money then.

In all seriousness, I was on record as saying I thought Tyus had to be the primary PG for Duke next year. And the presser confirmed what I've felt for a while now - Coach K sees Quinn's biggest asset as being a shooter, not a distributor. I say Tyus starts from day one and never relinquishes that spot (unless it's - God forbid - because of an injury). He'll be our facilitator next year for sure. And mark my words, it will make all the difference in the world.

[Gthoma2a]

So where did you hear such things? Links?

It is from the interview after this game (I can't find it, but here is where it was mentioned, although I do remember that it came up after the doghouse comments). K said that, for the first time in the season he was in shape. That implied that he came in out of shape (and I never heard anything about any kind of injury that I recall; thus, I "put in the perhaps there was something going on").

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.c...p/t-32190.html

[Kedsy]

I really like Matt Jones, but if his shooting doesn't improve he will be non existent in Duke's offense. He's a good defender but he is a terrible shooter.

The fact that people touted Matt's shooting in high school is a bit of a puzzler considering his performance this past season, but don't despair yet. Shane Battier shot 4 for 24 from three-point range his freshman year (very similar to Matt's 3 for 21), and Shane shot over 41% his next three years. Quinn Cook was 14 for 56 from three-land his freshman year and at this point shooting looks to be one of his biggest skills.

The game has to slow down a bit for Matt. A lot of times that happens between freshman and sophomore years.

I think at this point the most likely scenario is that Tyus, Quinn and Rasheed will start on the perimeter.

Disagree. Not strong enough defensively, and the status quo in that regard won't cut it with Coach K in 2014-15.

I don't think the final answer to this question will be known until far into the season. As pfrduke detailed, whether we play smallball or not has been a big question on this board at least since 2010-11. Coach K has shown he is not averse to it, but he also seems to be fed up with poor defense, so I predict we'll see lots of different starting and playing combinations at the three perimeter spots, and that during the games we'll see both small (e.g., Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed), and not-so-small (e.g., Tyus/Quinn, Matt, Justise), with lots of combinations in between.

That said, once January 1 rolls around, while we still may not know who will be the primary three players on the wing, I suspect we'll know which four (five?) players will be taking pretty much all the meaningful minutes, and which three (two?) players will be taking pretty much all the "how-come-they-don't-play" thread space here on DBR.

I don't think people give Quinn enough credit. He's been the starting point guard on an Elite Eight team that spent several months as the #1 team in the country, and he wasn't just along for the ride either. He was an integral part of that team as a sophomore and I think it's certainly reasonable to expect him to be a starter as a senior. Could there be another Greg Paulus episode? Sure, but I don't expect it.

It's kind of funny that back in November/December, some people around here were suggesting Quinn might leave early for the NBA, and now the louder voices are saying he won't hardly play at all next season.

I completely agree with wk2109 that Quinn will play a major role. The fact that Quinn came off the bench for the last ten games of this season (and 13 of 15), however, has backed me off the certainty that he'll start next season. As I said above, I think we're going to see lots of combinations at the three perimeter spots. What I don't think is that Grayson will leapfrog over Quinn in the rotation.

The other thing to which people aren't giving enough credence is the amount that players improve over the off-season. For all we know, Quinn may come back in September so much improved that he'll be impossible to keep out of the starting lineup. Rasheed may come back as a guy that has a good chance to enter the draft after his junior year. Amile may come back as a potential All-ACC talent, and even more likely to improve by leaps-and-bounds are our less experienced players Marshall, Matt, and Semi.

Or that may not happen. It will be an interesting thing to keep an eye on.

[dukelifer]

The fact that people touted Matt's shooting in high school is a bit of a puzzler considering his performance this past season, but don't despair yet. Shane Battier shot 4 for 24 from three-point range his freshman year (very similar to Matt's 3 for 21), and Shane shot over 41% his next three years. Quinn Cook was 14 for 56 from three-land his freshman year and at this point shooting looks to be one of his biggest skills.

The game has to slow down a bit for Matt. A lot of times that happens between freshman and sophomore years.





I don't think the final answer to this question will be known until far into the season. As pfrduke detailed, whether we play smallball or not has been a big question on this board at least since 2010-11. Coach K has shown he is not averse to it, but he also seems to be fed up with poor defense, so I predict we'll see lots of different starting and playing combinations at the three perimeter spots, and that during the games we'll see both small (e.g., Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed), and not-so-small (e.g., Tyus/Quinn, Matt, Justise), with lots of combinations in between.

That said, once January 1 rolls around, while we still may not know who will be the primary three players on the wing, I suspect we'll know which four (five?) players will be taking pretty much all the meaningful minutes, and which three (two?) players will be taking pretty much all the "how-come-they-don't-play" thread space here on DBR.



It's kind of funny that back in November/December, some people around here were suggesting Quinn might leave early for the NBA, and now the louder voices are saying he won't hardly play at all next season.

I completely agree with wk2109 that Quinn will play a major role. The fact that Quinn came off the bench for the last ten games of this season (and 13 of 15), however, has backed me off the certainty that he'll start next season. As I said above, I think we're going to see lots of combinations at the three perimeter spots. What I don't think is that Grayson will leapfrog over Quinn in the rotation.

The other thing to which people aren't giving enough credence is the amount that players improve over the off-season. For all we know, Quinn may come back in September so much improved that he'll be impossible to keep out of the starting lineup. Rasheed may come back as a guy that has a good chance to enter the draft after his junior year. Amile may come back as a potential All-ACC talent, and even more likely to improve by leaps-and-bounds are our less experienced players Marshall, Matt, and Semi.

Or that may not happen. It will be an interesting thing to keep an eye on.

Yes- I find it hard to believe that a player who was widely considered to be the best shooter in the class somehow lost the ability to shoot. Once the game slows down- he should be fine.

This should give folks some confidence

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUN7P_sn0_M

My hypothesis is that when kids get into a serious strength training program, their shot mechanics change and they lose the "muscle memory". If he shoots thousands of shots over the summer- the stroke will come back.

[Newton_14]

Pulling all of the off topic posts from the mickey D thread into this new thread. Hold tight for me to move them here.

[wk2109]

I don't think the final answer to this question will be known until far into the season. As pfrduke detailed, whether we play smallball or not has been a big question on this board at least since 2010-11. Coach K has shown he is not averse to it, but he also seems to be fed up with poor defense, so I predict we'll see lots of different starting and playing combinations at the three perimeter spots, and that during the games we'll see both small (e.g., Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed), and not-so-small (e.g., Tyus/Quinn, Matt, Justise), with lots of combinations in between.

I'm certainly not betting big that Quinn will be the 3rd perimeter starter (assuming Tyus and Rasheed start), but I think right now he's in the lead. He'll be the only senior, he has lots of starting experience, and he's just a good player (this board's criticism of his defense and shot selection notwithstanding).

One thing next year's team will have for the first time in a long time is a true 5 whom the team can build the offense around. If Jahlil can be a really dominant inside scorer, that could open up the possibility of a defensive-minded player like Matt or Justise grabbing that 3 spot. If either of them proves he can hit an open 3, that might tip the scale even more in favor of one of them starting.

[Researchc]

Coach K compliments the defensive ability of BOTH Justise and Grayson. It's not outside the realm of possibility that Grayson is a better defender than Justise or that he's close enough in defensive ability to Justise to allow Grayson's superior shooting to carry the day.

What is this "Defense" thing that you speak of? I heard something about this a couple of years ago, but it was certainly missing this year.

I cannot wait to have a team play hard nose defense again! That has been the biggest issue with having young teams the last couple of years. Hopefully that will be a major focus for us next year.

[tommy]

Reports out of McD's AA practice have stated that Grayson has been one of the more impressive guys on both ends this week. If his defense is serviceable and he can be a knock down shooter, which is kind of what we need next year, then as previously stated, it would be hard to keep him out of the line-up.

Unless you're a transcendent offensive talent, like a Parker or even a Tyus Jones, I don't think being a "serviceable" defensive player will -- or should -- cut it anymore on this team.

[Duvall]

Unless you're a transcendent offensive talent, like a Parker or even a Tyus Jones, I don't think being a "serviceable" defensive player will -- or should -- cut it anymore on this team.

How many better-than-serviceable defenders do you anticipate Duke having next year?

[gumbomoop]

As this thread is entitled "Musings," permit me to clarify my musing re Quinn on the K presser thread.

Plenty of story lines to keep us occupied for a few days/weeks, until we hear about Rodney's and Jabari's decisions. I think among the most compelling over the summer is Quinn's senior campaign. Not just "Will he start?" -- compelling enough -- but will he get major [25+] mpg, or will he see his PT somewhat reduced to the 15-20 mpg range, as backup to Tyus and Rasheed? And most of all, how will what Coach Wojciechowski called Quinn's "big personality" respond if his minutes go down, if, as I expect, he is not in his senior year "the PG at Duke"?

Is it presumptuous to think of Quinn as "fragile"? It does appear that Krzyzewski, beginning with the presser, sent an unmistakable signal that Tyus is right now in the lead as the starting PG. Does anyone doubt that such a signal was sent, knowingly, straightforwardly, matter-of-factly? For K, "It's not personal; it's the truth."

Now if, as next season progresses, Quinn plays some backup PG; and if at other times both he and Tyus are on the floor killing it together, each making nice passes and each setting up the other with the extra pass for a 3-bomb swish; and if when he's the PG the offense doesn't miss a beat at Tyus's absence; and if other good vibes ensue for Quinn and the team does very well and Quinn is very much part of the team's winning -- if several of these good vibes play out, then there's no reason to imagine anything other than Quinn's big personality showing its inspiring best.

But given more modest, somewhat uneven play by Quinn, what then? For starters, how will Quinn's spirit respond if he isn't the starter? What if Justise/Matt/Semi/Greyson offer so much, much more than Quinn on the D-perimeter that he plays 15 mpg, not 25? Becomes "instant offense" off the bench, but no longer a playmaker?

To be clear, I'm inclined solidly toward the rosier scenario; and I think we'll see some, though probably not lots, of perimeter small-ball that will include Quinn.

But I'm also inclined to pay attention to the compelling Quinn story line. Big upside and unsettling downside are both possible.

[CBecker]

I really like Matt Jones, but if his shooting doesn't improve he will be non existent in Duke's offense. He's a good defender but he is a terrible shooter. But Coach K values defense, so you might be correct and he'll get major minutes. I hope that Justise is very good both on offense and on defense and he's the starter at the SF position. We need defense that's for sure. GoDuke!

It really is interesting considering his reputation coming out of high school was that of a sharp shooter. He was terrible shooting it last season, although he was a freshman and got sporadic game time, but he was also even poor from the foul line as well. He has a weird looking shot, but that obviously doesn't mean much. I would expect him to do better next season, as the likes of Kedsy stated above. Hopefully the game slows down for him. You don't get such a big reputation for shooting for no reason!

[tommy]

How many better-than-serviceable defenders do you anticipate Duke having next year?

I don't know how many we will have. But there are quite a few who we could have, factoring in reasonable expectations for improvement, primarily with regard to Sulaimon. I think in the "could be" category we've got Okafor, Jefferson (playing the position he's suited for), Sulaimon, Winslow, Matt Jones (though others saw more in him defensively than I did this year), Plumlee, and Ojeleye. Not all of them will reach that level, but I think all seven have a reasonable shot of doing so. And I have to see more of Allen at the collegiate level.

[Matches]

It really is interesting considering his reputation coming out of high school was that of a sharp shooter. He was terrible shooting it last season, although he was a freshman and got sporadic game time, but he was also even poor from the foul line as well. He has a weird looking shot, but that obviously doesn't mean much. I would expect him to do better next season, as the likes of Kedsy stated above. Hopefully the game slows down for him. You don't get such a big reputation for shooting for no reason!

So much of shooting is tied up in timing and confidence. My take is that Matt's timing is off (because as Kedsy said, the game hasn't slowed down for him yet), and I think that once he started shooting poorly it affected his confidence (hence the FT problems).

He still has a TON of time to get all that straight, and I'm still very confident he will. If he continues to improve defensively as well, it's going to be pretty surprising to me if he's not a rotation guy next year.

[Saratoga2]

Expecting a person of his size to play more than 25 minutes as a freshman is probably being too optimistic. Between conditioning, mistakes and fouls he will probably play less then some seem to believe. Marshall is ready to play 15 minutes a game and do it fairly well. That will leave Amile to play 4, a more natural position for him. I assume he will add strength and already has some reasonable moves around the basket. He could certainly benefit from a mid range shot where he could help give zone defenses issues. Until we know what Jabari plans to do, even the bigs are not settled.

[johnb]

So much of shooting is tied up in timing and confidence. My take is that Matt's timing is off (because as Kedsy said, the game hasn't slowed down for him yet), and I think that once he started shooting poorly it affected his confidence (hence the FT problems).

...

Others know more about shot mechanics that do I, but I don't know of any good shooters with Matt's release and rotation. If so, it seems likely he'll either need to change his shot or focus on channeling his inner Billy King. Just watching highlight film of Allen makes me think he's a more reliable shooter, not to mention slasher/scorer.

And while we're all worried about last year's porous defense, next year's worries are likely to be on offense (we'll likely be losing our 2 primary scorers and our best pure shooter)...

[roywhite]

Others know more about shot mechanics that do I, but I don't know of any good shooters with Matt's release and rotation. If so, it seems likely he'll either need to change his shot or focus on channeling his inner Billy King. Just watching highlight film of Allen makes me think he's a more reliable shooter, not to mention slasher/scorer.

And while we're all worried about last year's porous defense, next year's worries are likely to be on offense (we'll likely be losing our 2 primary scorers and our best pure shooter)...

Well, we certainly lose some outside shooting and assuming Jabari is gone, that's a big offensive loss. But Okafor down low can be a real game changer. He can score and will cause significant adjustments for opposing defenses.

[jv001]

Well, we certainly lose some outside shooting and assuming Jabari is gone, that's a big offensive loss. But Okafor down low can be a real game changer. He can score and will cause significant adjustments for opposing defenses.

Agree 100% Okafor will be our first option(imho) on offense. That's why I see Tyus being the primary point guard with Quinn getting minutes at SG and back up point minutes. I think Quinn may be our best option on the kick out 3 shot. We'll need someone that can get the ball to Okafor and from what I've heard(K) Tyus is the real deal. GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

Others know more about shot mechanics that do I, but I don't know of any good shooters with Matt's release and rotation. If so, it seems likely he'll either need to change his shot or focus on channeling his inner Billy King.

He needs to stick with his stroke and make it work at this level, imo. Changing sports mechanics in adults -- whether it be a basketball player's shooting stroke, golfer's swing, quarterback's throwing motion, batter's swing -- almost never seems to work out well. Matt's had a lot of success in his life with his current stroke, and I expect that he'll have success at Duke with that stroke eventually.

[CDu]

He needs to stick with his stroke and make it work at this level, imo. Changing sports mechanics in adults -- whether it be a basketball player's shooting stroke, golfer's swing, quarterback's throwing motion, batter's swing -- almost never seems to work out well. Matt's had a lot of success in his life with his current stroke, and I expect that he'll have success at Duke with that stroke eventually.

Agreed. I'd also note that I don't think Jones' struggles this season had anything to do with his form. I think it was a rhythm and/or confidence thing. When you play so sparingly and when you are surrounded by such talented players, it can sometimes be difficult to get comfortable on the floor. You start to press and overthink things, and that can affect your success.

Most of Jones' 3pt attempts were wide open. For a guy with the reputation as a shooter (and literally EVERYTHING I've read about the kid suggests he was a great shooter in high school), those should be gimmes. But more importantly, there's no reason that his shooting style should be why he missed those shots.

If that is the way Jones feels comfortable shooting, and if that is the form Jones used in high school, then that is the form he should stick with. As troublemaker said, it's very hard to relearn a shooting form later in life. It's better to stay with what you've been doing for close to a decade, as doing what feels natural is more likely to lead to positive results.