Originally Posted by
Olympic Fan
WAR is the latest manifestation of the desire to find one, single number to encompass a player's value. I admire the quest, but like Einstein's search for a unified Field Theory, we ain't there yet.
I have a lot of problems with WAR, but I agree that offensive WAR is probably the most reliable of the components (although it's no better than OPS), while defensive WAR is the weakest. But what about the factors that go into pitching WAR? And does pitching WAR compare to WAR for position players?
There's another problem with WAR -- different sites come up with different WAR calculations. That doesn't happen with batting average or OPS or ERA. How reliable can the stat be when the numbers aren't universal?
Last year, when we were debating the next class of Hall of Famers, I read one normally astute commentator who used WAR to dismiss Jack Morris as a serious candidate. That got me looking at historical WAR to see how well it describes the real world. Well, I found dozens of difficulties -- I guess the most outrageous was that Rich Reuschel had a higher career WAR that Bob Feller. I can go throw every traditional stat and show you point by point how Feller was the superior pitcher ... but it would be a waste of time. Does anybody seriously think Reuschel was anywhere near as valuable over the course of his career as Feller?
Another problem I have is with negative defensive WAR numbers. A guy like Miggy Cabrera would have a higher career WAR if he was a career DH. He gets penalized for his years at third base. Same with Derek Jeter at shortstop. It's true that both are subpar defensively at their positions (although Jeter does have five gold gloves). But in the real world, aren't they more valuable playing difficult defensive positions in the field and allowing their teams to deploy other strong hitters at the less difficult defensive positions? The Cabrera Tigers and the Jeter Yankees have been pretty darn successful.
Of course, the craziest numbers are defensive WAR ... I do think Simmons is a great defensive SS, but was he better last year than Ozzie was in his best year? In 2011, the best defensive WAR in the game belonged to Brett Gardner -- the guy was a leftfielder! True, he was a centerfielder playing left, but he had a better defensive WAR than Willie Mays in his best season. He had more defensive valuable than Brooks or Ozzie in all but one of two seasons. And with all that value, he didn't win the gold glove (it went to Alex Gordon).
That's crazy.
OBP and OPS relate directly to runs scored. ERA is clearly an effective measure of a pitchers' performance better than wins and losses -- and better than WHIP*. But while WAR sometimes reflects the real world, it's a very imperfect measure. That's why I wouldn't use it to argue that Mike Trout deserved the MVP in Miggy's Triple Crown year (as many stat-heads did) and I wouldn't use it to bash Jack Morris.
* The Feller-Reuchel matchup demonstrates why ERA (or ERA plus which measures ERA independent of ballpark effect and the era) is a better tool than WHIP. Reuschel, because he had a low walk rate, winds up with a better WHIP than Feller, who walked a lot of people. Thus, Feller allowed more baserunners than Reuschel.
But Feller also allowed significantly less runs that Reuschel. His raw ERA of 3.25 is better than Reuschel's 3.37 and his ERA plaus is 122 to Reuschel's 114. So even though he allowed more baserunners, Feller allowed less runs and isn't that the point of the exercise?
Now you can argue that by dealing with more baserunners, Feller had to throw more pitches and that could have a long-term impact ... except that Feller threw significantly more innings than Reuschel. He also had significantly more wins and a significantly better winning percentage (although we know those are team-dependent stats).
Obviously, WAR gives Reuschel a lot of credit for his superior WHIP (it's the only pitching stat that he beats Feller). Does he also get credit for his bat (Reuschel was a superior hitting pitcher)? Do those two stats make up for Feller's much, much more impressive pitching record? Apparently, it does for WAR.
Now, I don't mean to knock Reuschel, who was a fine pitcher. And I don't mean to dismiss WHIP, which is a good tool. I'm just saying that we need to keep everything in its proper order. Feller>Reuschel not matter what WAR says. And ERA>WHIP.