2014 NBA Draft early entry

[Olympic Fan]

Syracuse does have some talent in Roberson and some incoming freshmen. But yes, Grant looks to take on a much bigger role with the loss of Fair.

However, I think that team's fortunes depend entirely on the return of Ennis. He was their only PG this year. If he goes, they'll be relying on a less-talented freshman PG to carry the burden of running the offense.

Don't want to hijack this thread and turn it into a 2015 ACC preview, but Syracuse does have a pretty well-regarded incoming point guard in Kaleb Joseph, who is rated only as bit lower than Ennis was coming out of HS (of course, Ennis was much better than his ratings). The Orange will have great size next season with Christmas back and with DeJaun Coleman (a 2013 starter who missed last year with an injury) back down low. If Grant does leave, they also have a top 50 forward in 6-10 Chris McCullough coming in.

Their problem will be the perimeter. I agree that Ennis to Joseph looks like a dropoff. They need somebody to push/help Cooney (his dropoff late was their biggest late-season problem). There just aren't any other outside options on the roster or in the recruiting pipeline

[burns15]

Kyle Anderson's dad has been saying openly for a long time that this year is it at UCLA for his son.

On another early-entry related topic that I always think about, and admittedly it causes a degree of fear no matter how optimistic I am about Duke's prospects, is how certain teams will look next year if some of their guys don't go pro. For instance, I'm very concerned about Arizona and Michigan next year if they don't lose any guys, and they might not.

Arizona's two juniors are starting guards Nick Johnson and TJ McConnell. I suppose Johnson could go, but I won't be shocked if he comes back. McConnell isn't going anywhere. Their other key players are two sophs (Tarczewski and Ashley, who has already said he's coming back) plus Aaron Gordon (whose stock has dropped over the course of the season, since he can't shoot) and fellow frosh Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Gabe York. I heard a few rumblings that Hollis-Jefferson may be considering leaving, but I'll believe it when I see it. So I could easily see their whole team coming back next year, plus they add the best high school player in the west, and one of the top 5 in the country, in Stanley Johnson, who even if Gordon leaves will step right into his role. This obviously is one of the very best teams in the country this year, and if they don't lose anybody -- or even if they lose just one guy, be it Gordon or Johnson -- is going to be downright scary next year.

Michigan has just one senior, big man Jordan Morgan, but he's a role player. Junior big man Jon Horford will be back. Now it's possible Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson, and/or Nik Stauskas, all sophomores, could go to the league, but none would surprise me by coming back to Ann Arbor. McGary, as is true with a lot of guys coming off of a significant injury, could feel like he better get to the NBA before he gets hurt again, or he could feel like he has unfinished business in college. Robinson almost came out last year, but has been a bit of a disappointment in that he has not shown the ability to take over games at the college level. His stock has fallen. And of course he doesn't need the money. Stauskas' stock has risen dramatically, and he may not have a whole lot more growth to make in college, and if a kid like that can get into the late lottery or even just outside it, maybe he goes. But it's far from certain in my mind. Soph Caris LeVert has been excellent this year, but he's not ready for the NBA. Then they have the freshman point guard Walton coming back, the freshman wing Zak Irvin, both of whom will be better next year, plus soph Spike Albrecht as well. That is a very deep and experienced and talented team, potentially. If they don't lose a couple of guys, this team is going to be a monster next year.

I recognize that these teams would be supremely talented, but if you play the same game with Duke, I think you will find the same thing. If Jabari stays, you can make a valid argument that Duke should be the number 1 team in the nation coming into the year. I mean you are talking 5 potential 1st round picks in Jabari, Jahlil, Rasheed, Tyus, and Justise. And if Rodney and Jabari return, forget about it. We are talking one of the all-time most talented Duke teams there. Then add the fact that we could still, by some prayer, add Myles Turner.

I mean take this years team, add a legitimately elite PG and big man, and a more experienced back up big man in Plumlee, in addition to another elite wing defender to pair with Sheed. That fills our two major holes this year, plus adds another excelletn defensive player. I think that would add at a bare minimum 5-6 wins right there. Instead of a 26-8 team going into the tournament, you are talking about a 31-3 or 32-2 team, which would be the number 1 or 2 team in country behind Florida.

Just saying, I'd take Duke in the what-if game over either of those teams.

[El_Diablo]

ESPN is reporting that sources tell them Ennis is leaving Cuse for the NBA. Not a big shocker given that he is projected as a lottery pick. Plus, his stock could really go down next year if having less skilled teammates causes him to struggle.

-Jason "Hood ain't staying -- he's chronologically a junior" Evans

Ennis has made it official:

“I’d like to thank coach [Jim] Boeheim, the coaching staff, my teammates and the amazing fans of Syracuse for the opportunity to play at a great university like Syracuse,” Ennis said in a prepared statement. “I feel this experience has helped prepare me to fulfill my lifelong dream – to play in the NBA.”

http://nba.si.com/2014/03/27/tyler-e...raft-syracuse/

[MCFinARL]

I recognize that these teams would be supremely talented, but if you play the same game with Duke, I think you will find the same thing. If Jabari stays, you can make a valid argument that Duke should be the number 1 team in the nation coming into the year. I mean you are talking 5 potential 1st round picks in Jabari, Jahlil, Rasheed, Tyus, and Justise. And if Rodney and Jabari return, forget about it. We are talking one of the all-time most talented Duke teams there. Then add the fact that we could still, by some prayer, add Myles Turner.

I mean take this years team, add a legitimately elite PG and big man, and a more experienced back up big man in Plumlee, in addition to another elite wing defender to pair with Sheed. That fills our two major holes this year, plus adds another excelletn defensive player. I think that would add at a bare minimum 5-6 wins right there. Instead of a 26-8 team going into the tournament, you are talking about a 31-3 or 32-2 team, which would be the number 1 or 2 team in country behind Florida.

Just saying, I'd take Duke in the what-if game over either of those teams.

I might be inclined to agree with you but for one thing--even if Jabari returns, you are talking about building a new team with big roles for freshman players--something that didn't work as well for us this year as we might have hoped. They obviously could/would still be very good, but Michigan and Arizona, assuming their players return, would be relying more on more experienced players, with less dependence on freshmen.

[CDu]

Don't want to hijack this thread and turn it into a 2015 ACC preview, but Syracuse does have a pretty well-regarded incoming point guard in Kaleb Joseph, who is rated only as bit lower than Ennis was coming out of HS (of course, Ennis was much better than his ratings). The Orange will have great size next season with Christmas back and with DeJaun Coleman (a 2013 starter who missed last year with an injury) back down low. If Grant does leave, they also have a top 50 forward in 6-10 Chris McCullough coming in.

Their problem will be the perimeter. I agree that Ennis to Joseph looks like a dropoff. They need somebody to push/help Cooney (his dropoff late was their biggest late-season problem). There just aren't any other outside options on the roster or in the recruiting pipeline

Yeah, Cuse had two big problems this year:
- lack of shooters on the perimeter (just Cooney, and he was REALLY streaky)
- only one PG

Fortunately for them, Ennis was a terrific PG from day one. He was ready to handle major minutes and ran the Cuse offense brilliantly. But I wouldn't expect every freshman PG to come in and handle the job essentially solo as well as Ennis did.

Now, if Ennis stays, then a backcourt of Ennis, Joseph, and Cooney is a dynamite combination. Especially with the combination of size/length/talent they have in their frontcourt.

But with just one PG and no clear options as perimeter shooters outside of Cooney, they may very well struggle.

[JasonEvans]

I think that McGary, Robinson, Stauskas, Gordon, and Tarczewski are serious threats to go pro early. Johnson is a bit too much of a tweener, so I doubt he goes.

But I agree that, if all but a couple of those guys stay, those teams will be REALLY good next year.

For what it is worth, Chad Forde says Nick and Nik (Johnson, AZ and Stauskas, MI) are pretty much in the draft. He puts them in the same category as Hood, Wiggins, Julius Randle, Marcus Smart, and James Young as guys who are all but certain to declare.

McGary, Robinson, Gordon, and Tarczewski are all listed in Forde's 50-50 camp as kids who could go or could decide to stay. He also lists Jabari and Rasheed Suliamon in the 50-50 camp.

-Jason "no idea if Chad knows what he is talking about" Evans

[Des Esseintes]

For what it is worth, Chad Forde says Nick and Nik (Johnson, AZ and Stauskas, MI) are pretty much in the draft. He puts them in the same category as Hood, Wiggins, Julius Randle, Marcus Smart, and James Young as guys who are all but certain to declare.

McGary, Robinson, Gordon, and Tarczewski are all listed in Forde's 50-50 camp as kids who could go or could decide to stay. He also lists Jabari and Rasheed Suliamon in the 50-50 camp.

-Jason "no idea if Chad knows what he is talking about" Evans

That's...interesting. Leaving aside the quality of Ford's intel, where could Rasheed expect to get drafted this year? Is he a first round guy? He seems like an end-of-the-first-round dude, but I confess I've thought so little about the possibility that I could be wildly off in either direction.

[kAzE]

If Jabari and Hood both leave, and those other guys like Warren, Grant, Harrell, etc. all go, UNC is looking to come out of this with a pretty strong squad, having all but secured their entire team this year minus McDonald. I think they will be a pretty serious contender next year in the ACC if all the other teams lose these early entrants.

[roywhite]

If Jabari and Hood both leave, and those other guys like Warren, Grant, Harrell, etc. all go, UNC is looking to come out of this with a pretty strong squad, having all but secured their entire team this year minus McDonald. I think they will be a pretty serious contender next year in the ACC if all the other teams lose these early entrants.

Remarkable how the Heels seem able to retain potential early entry guys for an extended stay. The latest examples are Marcus Paige and especially James Michael McAdoo, who was thought to be a one and done candidate, but is now likely to return for his senior year.

Not sure just what the attraction is for these players -- more time to soak up the folksy wisdom of Ole Roy, nice lifestyle in Chapel Hill, or perhaps the sterling academic opportunities?

[DevilYouKnow]

Remarkable how the Heels seem able to retain potential early entry guys for an extended stay. The latest examples are Marcus Paige and especially James Michael McAdoo, who was thought to be a one and done candidate, but is now likely to return for his senior year.

Not sure just what the attraction is for these players -- more time to soak up the folksy wisdom of Ole Roy, nice lifestyle in Chapel Hill, or perhaps the sterling academic opportunities?

Agree with original quote that the Heels will be very strong next year (ughhh.).

Also agree with roywhite that Ol' Roy's ability to convince players to stick around, even when it's clearly against their economic interests, is astounding. Very recently, IC posters were vilifying Coach K for keeping talent against players' best interest, while UNC was devoted only to the players and what's best for them.

McAdoo About Nothing has to stay to try to regain the mojo he once had then squandered in his soph and junior seasons.

[dukelifer]

Agree with original quote that the Heels will be very strong next year (ughhh.).

Also agree with roywhite that Ol' Roy's ability to convince players to stick around, even when it's clearly against their economic interests, is astounding. Very recently, IC posters were vilifying Coach K for keeping talent against players' best interest, while UNC was devoted only to the players and what's best for them.

McAdoo About Nothing has to stay to try to regain the mojo he once had then squandered in his soph and junior seasons.

I am not so sure this is true. Brandon Wright? Kendall Marshall? Both guys should have stayed. That said, the usual rule of thumb is to leave if you are a lottery pick. McAdoo may have had a shot - but he would have struggled in the NBA. Paige is borderline this year- particularly with this year's draft. Parker and Irving are outliers- top 3 picks. Rivers probably should have stayed but maybe K was not too sad to see him leave.

[OZ]

Remarkable how the Heels seem able to retain potential early entry guys for an extended stay. The latest examples are Marcus Paige and especially James Michael McAdoo, who was thought to be a one and done candidate, but is now likely to return for his senior year.

Perhaps the most persuasive influence in their return is that neither would be a high draft pick. In McAdoo's case, this seems to be a clear example of Roy's inability to develop big men.

[FerryFor50]

I am not so sure this is true. Brandon Wright? Kendall Marshall? Both guys should have stayed. That said, the usual rule of thumb is to leave if you are a lottery pick. McAdoo may have had a shot - but he would have struggled in the NBA. Paige is borderline this year- particularly with this year's draft. Parker and Irving are outliers- top 3 picks. Rivers probably should have stayed but maybe K was not too sad to see him leave.

Why should Wright have stayed? He was drafted 8th in the first round. Could he have improved his stock by staying a year? Maybe. But a lot easier to drop...

Marshall is a more interesting case, but was still picked 13th.

If the argument is "they should have stayed to get better," it's valid. But as many have pointed out, you get a lot more time to get better in the NBA than in college, where practices, coach time and workouts are all time limited by the NBA. Then there's that pesky AFAM homework you have to do...

[MCFinARL]

I am not so sure this is true. Brandon Wright? Kendall Marshall? Both guys should have stayed. That said, the usual rule of thumb is to leave if you are a lottery pick. McAdoo may have had a shot - but he would have struggled in the NBA. Paige is borderline this year- particularly with this year's draft. Parker and Irving are outliers- top 3 picks. Rivers probably should have stayed but maybe K was not too sad to see him leave.

Whether or not K was sad to see him leave, Rivers, as the son of an NBA coach, presumably had access to very good information and advice in making his decision. Under those circumstances, K might worry less about whether Rivers was making a poor or ill-informed decision than with other players. Although this may not have been your intention, your comment could be interpreted to suggest that K advised Rivers to leave, or didn't discourage him from leaving, even though Rivers wasn't ready. I don't think we have any basis on which to make that assumption. And apologies in advance if I am reading too much into your post.

[Matches]

I am not so sure this is true. Brandon Wright? Kendall Marshall? Both guys should have stayed.

Disagree about Marshall. Clearly his NBA career had a rocky start but he was a lottery pick despite not really being an elite prospect, and he's blossomed now in his 2nd year. He's had a really good season with the Lakers and looks like a good bet to play 10-12 years in the league.

[FerryFor50]

Disagree about Marshall. Clearly his NBA career had a rocky start but he was a lottery pick despite not really being an elite prospect, and he's blossomed now in his 2nd year. He's had a really good season with the Lakers and looks like a good bet to play 10-12 years in the league.

Also, while Wright took a while to get any PT, he seems to have found a home in Dallas. He's averaging 9 ppg and 4 boards this season. He also has earned over 15 mil so far.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...wrighbr03.html

[Des Esseintes]

Also, while Wright took a while to get any PT, he seems to have found a home in Dallas. He's averaging 9 ppg and 4 boards this season. He also has earned over 15 mil so far.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...wrighbr03.html

Wright is an example of a guy who went at the exact correct time. He was ready to contribute at the NBA level but in retrospect was not the #8 guy in that class. Had he stayed, he likely would have fallen closer to his true level. Great decision, and as you say, he's made a solid career for himself.

I think Kendall, too, maximized his opportunity, for the same reasons.

Also, and not apropos of your post, why some posters treat the mere mention of Austin Rivers as an imperative to slag him is beyond me.

[FerryFor50]

Also, and not apropos of your post, why some posters treat the mere mention of Austin Rivers as an imperative to slag him is beyond me.

Yea, not sure why that is, either.

I mean, he wasn't my favorite Duke player in the world, but he DID hit that shot over Tyler Zeller to beat UNC. That alone vindicates him for any other perceived transgressions...

[BD80]

Remarkable how the Heels seem able to retain potential early entry guys for an extended stay. The latest examples are Marcus Paige and especially James Michael McAdoo, who was thought to be a one and done candidate, but is now likely to return for his senior year.

Not sure just what the attraction is for these players -- more time to soak up the folksy wisdom of Ole Roy, nice lifestyle in Chapel Hill, or perhaps the sterling academic opportunities?

Maybe they want to stick around to learn to read. It is an upper level course at unc.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Wright is an example of a guy who went at the exact correct time. He was ready to contribute at the NBA level but in retrospect was not the #8 guy in that class. Had he stayed, he likely would have fallen closer to his true level. Great decision, and as you say, he's made a solid career for himself.

I think Kendall, too, maximized his opportunity, for the same reasons.

Could not agree more. Duke, IMO, hasn't had players maximize their opportunity by getting drafted at the right time. Rivers certainly did. I'm convinced that if River stayed another year, his stock may have fallen. Between his inconsistent shot and poor defense, I think he would have been taken out of the lottery. He left at the most opportune time, IMO.

From a draft prospective, Singler and McBob left Duke a year too late. Singler was a clear 1st round pick in 2010. McBob was a top 5, if not lottery pick, in 2006.

Of course, Duke has also had players increase their stock like crazy. Redick and Nolan Smith come to mind (2nd rounders taken in the middle of the first round). The NBA draft is such a crapshot, and a few bad games / few good games in college can be the difference between making $6 million in your first 3 years or being a 2nd round pick.