2014 NBA Draft early entry

[JasonEvans]

I suppose we need a thread to track early entry among non-Dukies.

We already know about TJ Warren turning pro.

This morning, Gary Parrish reported that Embiid will be turning pro. Not a huge surprise. There have been talk he might come back but I think the back injury cemented that he needs to come out now lest he remain hurt and get labelled as injury prone. Even with the back questions, hard to see him not going top 3 or 4.

-Jason "need to look around and see who else need to be added to this thread" Evans

[CDu]

I suppose we need a thread to track early entry among non-Dukies.

We already know about TJ Warren turning pro.

This morning, Gary Parrish reported that Embiid will be turning pro. Not a huge surprise. There have been talk he might come back but I think the back injury cemented that he needs to come out now lest he remain hurt and get labelled as injury prone. Even with the back questions, hard to see him not going top 3 or 4.

-Jason "need to look around and see who else need to be added to this thread" Evans

In the interest of full disclosure, TJ Warren has said he has not decided yet. I mean, I think we all know that he's going to go. But he hasn't made that official yet.

I suspect the same is true for Embiid (both the officiality of the decision and the eventual outcome).

[MCFinARL]

Indiana's Noah Vonleh apparently entering the draft, by his own report.

Also Big East Rookie of the Year JaKarr Sampson.

Some confusion about LaQuinton Ross of OSU, who was reported to be leaving but then tweeted that he hasn't decided yet.

[Henderson]

If Embiid goes, that benefits Kansas in the Turner sweepstakes, no?

[Henderson]

Indiana's Noah Vonleh apparently entering the draft, by his own report.

Also Big East Rookie of the Year JaKarr Sampson.

Some confusion about LaQuinton Ross of OSU, who was reported to be leaving but then tweeted that he hasn't decided yet.

Seems like a good move for Vonleh and expected. Not so sure about Sampson. He could go mid-first round, but more likely late first or even early second. Maybe he and others think he's peaked as a college player. He is 21 years old. I liked the part of his announcement regarding his (and his mother's) desire to see him finish his degree with the help of St. John's staff by taking courses in the off season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I suspect the same is true for Embiid (both the officiality of the decision and the eventual outcome).

Embiid is 20 years old? That's even more reason to enter the draft.

Bad back + sophomore age + top 3 pick = no brainer

[BD80]

Soph. Jahii Carson from ASU admitted after his final home game he'll be in the draft

[tommy]

Kyle Anderson's dad has been saying openly for a long time that this year is it at UCLA for his son.

On another early-entry related topic that I always think about, and admittedly it causes a degree of fear no matter how optimistic I am about Duke's prospects, is how certain teams will look next year if some of their guys don't go pro. For instance, I'm very concerned about Arizona and Michigan next year if they don't lose any guys, and they might not.

Arizona's two juniors are starting guards Nick Johnson and TJ McConnell. I suppose Johnson could go, but I won't be shocked if he comes back. McConnell isn't going anywhere. Their other key players are two sophs (Tarczewski and Ashley, who has already said he's coming back) plus Aaron Gordon (whose stock has dropped over the course of the season, since he can't shoot) and fellow frosh Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Gabe York. I heard a few rumblings that Hollis-Jefferson may be considering leaving, but I'll believe it when I see it. So I could easily see their whole team coming back next year, plus they add the best high school player in the west, and one of the top 5 in the country, in Stanley Johnson, who even if Gordon leaves will step right into his role. This obviously is one of the very best teams in the country this year, and if they don't lose anybody -- or even if they lose just one guy, be it Gordon or Johnson -- is going to be downright scary next year.

Michigan has just one senior, big man Jordan Morgan, but he's a role player. Junior big man Jon Horford will be back. Now it's possible Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson, and/or Nik Stauskas, all sophomores, could go to the league, but none would surprise me by coming back to Ann Arbor. McGary, as is true with a lot of guys coming off of a significant injury, could feel like he better get to the NBA before he gets hurt again, or he could feel like he has unfinished business in college. Robinson almost came out last year, but has been a bit of a disappointment in that he has not shown the ability to take over games at the college level. His stock has fallen. And of course he doesn't need the money. Stauskas' stock has risen dramatically, and he may not have a whole lot more growth to make in college, and if a kid like that can get into the late lottery or even just outside it, maybe he goes. But it's far from certain in my mind. Soph Caris LeVert has been excellent this year, but he's not ready for the NBA. Then they have the freshman point guard Walton coming back, the freshman wing Zak Irvin, both of whom will be better next year, plus soph Spike Albrecht as well. That is a very deep and experienced and talented team, potentially. If they don't lose a couple of guys, this team is going to be a monster next year.

[CDu]

Kyle Anderson's dad has been saying openly for a long time that this year is it at UCLA for his son.

On another early-entry related topic that I always think about, and admittedly it causes a degree of fear no matter how optimistic I am about Duke's prospects, is how certain teams will look next year if some of their guys don't go pro. For instance, I'm very concerned about Arizona and Michigan next year if they don't lose any guys, and they might not.

Arizona's two juniors are starting guards Nick Johnson and TJ McConnell. I suppose Johnson could go, but I won't be shocked if he comes back. McConnell isn't going anywhere. Their other key players are two sophs (Tarczewski and Ashley, who has already said he's coming back) plus Aaron Gordon (whose stock has dropped over the course of the season, since he can't shoot) and fellow frosh Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Gabe York. I heard a few rumblings that Hollis-Jefferson may be considering leaving, but I'll believe it when I see it. So I could easily see their whole team coming back next year, plus they add the best high school player in the west, and one of the top 5 in the country, in Stanley Johnson, who even if Gordon leaves will step right into his role. This obviously is one of the very best teams in the country this year, and if they don't lose anybody -- or even if they lose just one guy, be it Gordon or Johnson -- is going to be downright scary next year.

Michigan has just one senior, big man Jordan Morgan, but he's a role player. Junior big man Jon Horford will be back. Now it's possible Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson, and/or Nik Stauskas, all sophomores, could go to the league, but none would surprise me by coming back to Ann Arbor. McGary, as is true with a lot of guys coming off of a significant injury, could feel like he better get to the NBA before he gets hurt again, or he could feel like he has unfinished business in college. Robinson almost came out last year, but has been a bit of a disappointment in that he has not shown the ability to take over games at the college level. His stock has fallen. And of course he doesn't need the money. Stauskas' stock has risen dramatically, and he may not have a whole lot more growth to make in college, and if a kid like that can get into the late lottery or even just outside it, maybe he goes. But it's far from certain in my mind. Soph Caris LeVert has been excellent this year, but he's not ready for the NBA. Then they have the freshman point guard Walton coming back, the freshman wing Zak Irvin, both of whom will be better next year, plus soph Spike Albrecht as well. That is a very deep and experienced and talented team, potentially. If they don't lose a couple of guys, this team is going to be a monster next year.

I think that McGary, Robinson, Stauskas, Gordon, and Tarczewski are serious threats to go pro early. Johnson is a bit too much of a tweener, so I doubt he goes.

But I agree that, if all but a couple of those guys stay, those teams will be REALLY good next year.

[UrinalCake]

I wonder how many top-15 type guys would have to leave before it affected Hood's decision on whether to go? If his projected spot gets pushed down out of the lottery, I would think that would heavily make him consider staying at Duke.

[LobstersPinchPinch]

If Embiid goes, that benefits Kansas in the Turner sweepstakes, no?

Given he wasn't going to KU if Emblid remained, yeah, they're back in the driver's seat for Turner. I think UTX is the most likely alternate location.

If he ends up at KU, could make a very strong argument they have the top overall class, with 3 of the top 7 recruits (vs. 3 of the top 13 for Duke). Although I'd take our class over KU's, given we'll have a world-class point guard and KU...well their PG situation remains grim.

[CDu]

I wonder how many top-15 type guys would have to leave before it affected Hood's decision on whether to go? If his projected spot gets pushed down out of the lottery, I would think that would heavily make him consider staying at Duke.

I don't think he's going to drop out of the top 20 picks, so I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I wonder how many top-15 type guys would have to leave before it affected Hood's decision on whether to go? If his projected spot gets pushed down out of the lottery, I would think that would heavily make him consider staying at Duke.

Hood is already 21-years old. Would it be worth delaying one more year to get into the lottery? Hood could probably make around $2-3 additional if he went from the 20th pick to the 14th pick (http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale), but how much would he lose in peak income? Probably $10 mill or so?

This is assuming, of course, that an additional year at Duke is equivalent to a rookie year in the NBA. That is up for debate.

[Olympic Fan]

The feedback I got at the ACC Tournament from a couple of very knowledgeable sources was that there will be a parade of ACC players bolting for the draft.

Obviously, Parker and Hood were at the top of the list. But also expected to go:

Tony Warren, N.C. State (while reported, nothing official ... Warren tweeted that he's still making up his mind)
Olivier Hanlan, BC (I have no idea if the coaching change could change his mind)
Tyler Ennis, Syracuse (my source was positive that he was gone)
K.J. McDaniels, Clemson (I talked to McDaniels in Greensboro and he was very careful to say he would weigh his options after the season)
Montrez Harrell, Louisville (will be an ACC guy next year if he returns)

That's seven guys expected to go ... also possible:

James Michael McAdoo, UNC (although his stock has dropped to the point where he might not be first round)
Jerami Grant, Syracuse (if he and Ennis go, along with a graduating Fair, the Orange take a big hit)
Dez Wells, Maryland (although he's not longer the ACC's problem)

[JasonEvans]

ESPN is reporting that sources tell them Ennis is leaving Cuse for the NBA. Not a big shocker given that he is projected as a lottery pick. Plus, his stock could really go down next year if having less skilled teammates causes him to struggle.

-Jason "Hood ain't staying -- he's chronologically a junior" Evans

[superdave]

Yesterday's Chad Ford chat

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The feedback I got at the ACC Tournament from a couple of very knowledgeable sources was that there will be a parade of ACC players bolting for the draft.

Obviously, Parker and Hood were at the top of the list. But also expected to go:

Tony Warren, N.C. State (while reported, nothing official ... Warren tweeted that he's still making up his mind)
Olivier Hanlan, BC (I have no idea if the coaching change could change his mind)
Tyler Ennis, Syracuse (my source was positive that he was gone)
K.J. McDaniels, Clemson (I talked to McDaniels in Greensboro and he was very careful to say he would weigh his options after the season)
Montrez Harrell, Louisville (will be an ACC guy next year if he returns)

That's seven guys expected to go ... also possible:

James Michael McAdoo, UNC (although his stock has dropped to the point where he might not be first round)
Jerami Grant, Syracuse (if he and Ennis go, along with a graduating Fair, the Orange take a big hit)
Dez Wells, Maryland (although he's not longer the ACC's problem)

With Fair graduating, if Ennis leaves I think Grant makes a Big Leap at the Orange. I say this with zero knowledge of who they have coming in, but he seems to be a very talented young man with pretty good attitude. Star in waiting, if you will.

[CDu]

With Fair graduating, if Ennis leaves I think Grant makes a Big Leap at the Orange. I say this with zero knowledge of who they have coming in, but he seems to be a very talented young man with pretty good attitude. Star in waiting, if you will.

Syracuse does have some talent in Roberson and some incoming freshmen. But yes, Grant looks to take on a much bigger role with the loss of Fair.

However, I think that team's fortunes depend entirely on the return of Ennis. He was their only PG this year. If he goes, they'll be relying on a less-talented freshman PG to carry the burden of running the offense.

[scottdude8]

Michigan has just one senior, big man Jordan Morgan, but he's a role player. Junior big man Jon Horford will be back. Now it's possible Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson, and/or Nik Stauskas, all sophomores, could go to the league, but none would surprise me by coming back to Ann Arbor. McGary, as is true with a lot of guys coming off of a significant injury, could feel like he better get to the NBA before he gets hurt again, or he could feel like he has unfinished business in college. Robinson almost came out last year, but has been a bit of a disappointment in that he has not shown the ability to take over games at the college level. His stock has fallen. And of course he doesn't need the money. Stauskas' stock has risen dramatically, and he may not have a whole lot more growth to make in college, and if a kid like that can get into the late lottery or even just outside it, maybe he goes. But it's far from certain in my mind. Soph Caris LeVert has been excellent this year, but he's not ready for the NBA. Then they have the freshman point guard Walton coming back, the freshman wing Zak Irvin, both of whom will be better next year, plus soph Spike Albrecht as well. That is a very deep and experienced and talented team, potentially. If they don't lose a couple of guys, this team is going to be a monster next year.

As a guy who covers Michigan very closely, I can't agree with this more. If all three of those guys come back, I think Michigan is the No. 1 team to start the year next year, assuming Jabari goes pro. In all likelihood, though, I think at least one of the three will go, probably Stauskas. And as much as I'd love to see the Canadian sharpshooter wearing Maize and Blue for one more season, I think if Michigan just loses him (or in a weird scenario just loses Robinson) they're still a top-5 team, because Irvin has shown huge potential this year and I believe can step into the starting lineup as a sophomore... especially considering his role, on a team where LeVert will be the primary scorer, will be primarily as a shooter and guy who can use his unique size to defend.

Both my teams could be in the Top-5 in the country to start next season, regardless of early entries. If things fall correctly they could easily be 1-2. That makes me very happy.

[dukebluesincebirth]

msn.foxsports.com/kansas-city/story/what-s-it-gonna-be-jojo-ku-s-embiid-says-he-hasn-t-made-an-nba-decision-yet-032714?cmpid=msn%3Afoxsports%3Aansfox11

Embiid says he's still undecided.