Semi

[CDu]

I would take Matt Jones over Justise or Grayson next year. And I would take Quinn and Rasheed over Tyus. This is nothing against the recruits but rather more about my faith in our existing talent.

I would take M. Jones over Allen. Not so sure about over Winslow. Though that's at least a debatable topic (extra year of experience versus higher-rated talent).

In terms of PG play, based on Coach K's comments as well as everything else I've heard/seen of T. Jones and their ratings as PG, I'd take T. Jones over either Cook or Sulaimon at PG. I would take either Cook or Sulaimon over T. Jones at SG.

Coach K didn't exactly sing our PG praises this year. And he seemed very excited to have T. Jones playing PG next year.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I would take M. Jones over Allen. Not so sure about over Winslow. Though that's at least a debatable topic (extra year of experience versus higher-rated talent).

In terms of PG play, based on Coach K's comments as well as everything else I've heard/seen of T. Jones and their ratings as PG, I'd take T. Jones over either Cook or Sulaimon at PG. I would take either Cook or Sulaimon over T. Jones at SG.

Coach K didn't exactly sing our PG praises this year. And he seemed very excited to have T. Jones playing PG next year.

You think Coach K has DBR-itis? The condition where you think all recruits are automatically better than your current players?

In all seriousness, I want to undervalue recruits to a) reduce my optimism is case recruits don't work out as we hoped and b) give more credit to existing players that I already have an emotional attachment to (I'm looking at you, Sulaimon).

[jv001]

I would take M. Jones over Allen. Not so sure about over Winslow. Though that's at least a debatable topic (extra year of experience versus higher-rated talent).

In terms of PG play, based on Coach K's comments as well as everything else I've heard/seen of T. Jones and their ratings as PG, I'd take T. Jones over either Cook or Sulaimon at PG. I would take either Cook or Sulaimon over T. Jones at SG.

Coach K didn't exactly sing our PG praises this year. And he seemed very excited to have T. Jones playing PG next year.

You heard the same things I heard CDu. Coach K said point guard play was inconsistent this year and Tyler had to play the point out of necessity. He also said that Tyus is an outstanding leader. I expect Tyus will be the Duke point guard. He also said Quinn's best strength is his shooting. That tells me he may be considering Quinn as a 2G. If that's the case, Rasheed will be the SF, or the first man off the bench. Matt Jones is going to have to improve his shooting to get many minutes.That's a long way off and anything can happen before tipoff of next season. GoDuke!

[CDu]

You think Coach K has DBR-itis? The condition where you think all recruits are automatically better than your current players?

In all seriousness, I want to undervalue recruits to a) reduce my optimism is case recruits don't work out as we hoped and b) give more credit to existing players that I already have an emotional attachment to (I'm looking at you, Sulaimon).

I hear you. And it is quite often the case that the returning players are more ready to contribute than the freshmen. But would you have argued for Hairston and Jefferson over Parker? Sometimes it really is true that the incoming player is better than the incumbent.

[tendev]

What if he chose Duke for the same reason lots of other kids who don't play basketball do?

[-jk]

I hear you. And it is quite often the case that the returning players are more ready to contribute than the freshmen. But would you have argued for Hairston and Jefferson over Parker? Sometimes it really is true that the incoming player is better than the incumbent.

At times, such as when Jabari wouldn't defend or rebound...

-jk

[flyingdutchdevil]

What if he chose Duke for the same reason lots of other kids who don't play basketball do?

The weather? Or for Dillo?

Nope. Can't be the latter. They closed the Dillo

[Henderson]

I would take M. Jones over Allen. Not so sure about over Winslow. Though that's at least a debatable topic (extra year of experience versus higher-rated talent).

In terms of PG play, based on Coach K's comments as well as everything else I've heard/seen of T. Jones and their ratings as PG, I'd take T. Jones over either Cook or Sulaimon at PG. I would take either Cook or Sulaimon over T. Jones at SG.

Coach K didn't exactly sing our PG praises this year. And he seemed very excited to have T. Jones playing PG next year.

What I heard from K's press conference today is that leadership matters a lot, especially from really talented players. But he's willing to play players who exhibit leadership even if they aren't necessarily the most gifted athletes on the court. He singled out Tyler Thornton. That suggests to me that we may be seeing a tilt toward veterans next year except among the extraordinarily gifted or those who exhibit leadership qualities early on. In other words, if you are a freshman, you have to step up and not count on playing ahead of a guy just because you can beat him one on one.

If Rasheed and Quinn answer the bell regarding leadership, I think they will both start ahead of players who may be more touted. Of course, Jahlil's on his own track just like Jabari was this year. But K seems to have a renewed appreciation for the importance of on court leadership as a critical quality when judging the overall skill set of a player. I think his press conference today was in part designed to send that message to some guys currently on the squad.

[Edouble]

You heard the same things I heard CDu. Coach K said point guard play was inconsistent this year and Tyler had to play the point out of necessity. He also said that Tyus is an outstanding leader. I expect Tyus will be the Duke point guard. He also said Quinn's best strength is his shooting. That tells me he may be considering Quinn as a 2G. If that's the case, Rasheed will be the SF, or the first man off the bench. Matt Jones is going to have to improve his shooting to get many minutes.That's a long way off and anything can happen before tipoff of next season. GoDuke!

To me that means that either Rasheed will be the SF, or Quinn will be the first man off the bench.

I'd be pretty surprised if our starting five next year wasn't Tyus, Sheed, Justise, Amile, and Jahill. I know that's 3 freshman. Maybe Matt starts over Justise, but both play starter minutes.

In any case, I don't see much PT for Semi. He was the 11th guy on the squad this year. I think it will be very hard for Semi to jump past the six mentioned above plus Marshall and Quinn, in the rotation. If he's the 9th guy, he's not gonna see the floor too much.

Semi seems like he is the kind of guy that might contribute in his 3rd/4th year in a reserve role. JMO

[JPtheGame]

Semi should redshirt. He probably should apply for last year to count as a redshirt season. Not sure of the minutes limits on that one so if not last year, then this year. Its going to take some time for his skill to match his stature and the game is obviously too fast for him right now. Its like K referenced at his presser, he regrets not redshirting Ryan Kelly because he wasnt physically ready at 18 but would have been a huge asset at 22-23. Same thing with Semi. He's going to sit around for awhile and when its time for him to leave, we will all wish we had an extra year with him.

[CDu]

Semi should redshirt. He probably should apply for last year to count as a redshirt season. Not sure of the minutes limits on that one so if not last year, then this year. Its going to take some time for his skill to match his stature and the game is obviously too fast for him right now. Its like K referenced at his presser, he regrets not redshirting Ryan Kelly because he wasnt physically ready at 18 but would have been a huge asset at 22-23. Same thing with Semi. He's going to sit around for awhile and when its time for him to leave, we will all wish we had an extra year with him.

The redshirt is not an option as he played in too many games and too late into the season.

[Bluedog]

What if he chose Duke for the same reason lots of other kids who don't play basketball do?

Good point as I'm sure strong academics was a major contributing factor for Semi as a 4.0 GPA student in high school. However, when you're considered one of the top 40 players in the entire country in a sport in your class and you dedicate countless hours honing your skills is said sport, clearly success and growth in that avenue is also at the forefront of your mind.

[Kedsy]

In any case, I don't see much PT for Semi. He was the 11th guy on the squad this year. I think it will be very hard for Semi to jump past the six mentioned above plus Marshall and Quinn, in the rotation. If he's the 9th guy, he's not gonna see the floor too much.

You may be right, but I'd add that unless Justise is capable of defending opposing PFs (not clear at his size), then Semi is also the 4th big and thus could see minutes in that capacity. On the other hand, if Quinn is our first guy off the bench, then in your scenario whoever of Justise and Matt is not starting will be the 5th perimeter player and will be very unlikely to see starters' minutes as you suggest. My guess is (absent injury) the 5th perimeter guy will average at most 10 to 12 minutes, and Semi as the 4th big will average 6 to 8. Until March, of course, when both those guys' minutes will probably shrink down to negligible.

Another ramification of Semi being the 4th big is he doesn't have to jump eight guys to get decent playing time, he only has to jump one (presumably Marshall), though at this moment even that seems pretty unlikely.

[CDu]

You may be right, but I'd add that unless Justise is capable of defending opposing PFs (not clear at his size), then Semi is also the 4th big and thus could see minutes in that capacity. On the other hand, if Quinn is our first guy off the bench, then in your scenario whoever of Justise and Matt is not starting will be the 5th perimeter player and will be very unlikely to see starters' minutes as you suggest. My guess is (absent injury) the 5th perimeter guy will average at most 10 to 12 minutes, and Semi as the 4th big will average 6 to 8. Until March, of course, when both those guys' minutes will probably shrink down to negligible.

Another ramification of Semi being the 4th big is he doesn't have to jump eight guys to get decent playing time, he only has to jump one (presumably Marshall), though at this moment even that seems pretty unlikely.

I mostly agree that some minutes will be available, but it probably won't be a heck of a lot.

Let's think about it in terms of minutes per player. At PF/C, we have 80 mpg. But do we really expect Plumlee and Okafor to share the court together for long periods of time? I don't. I would expect something like 28 mpg for Okafor and 16 mpg for Plumlee. That leaves 36 mpg at PF. I'd expect Jefferson to take the lion's share of those (let's say 28). That leaves about 8 mpg for somebody else. That would be the 6-8 mpg you're talking about, which would likely go to Ojeleye. And as you said, when we get to tourney time, I'd expect those minutes to decrease to 3-4 mpg with some DNPs.

At PG/SG, I see the trio of Tyus Jones, Cook, and Sulaimon taking virtually all of those minutes. In fact, I'd not be surprised if those three exceed 80 mpg combined, meaning they cut into the SF minutes a bit. Let's say another 4 mpg cut into the SF spot, so ~36 mpg left for SF (presumably split between Winslow, Matt Jones, and Ojeleye). If Winslow is good enough to average 25+ mpg, that leaves about 10 mpg (or less) for the 5th perimeter guy. And again, as the tourney season arrives, those minutes for the 5th wing are likely to decrease.

Basically, we're still talking about a situation where the 8th and 9th guys on the roster (4th big man and 5th guard/wing) are going to get pretty limited minutes during the season and then marginalized come tourney time. Unless Coach K deviates substantially from the norm. And given that he didn't deviate substantially from the norm this year (with even more depth and less clear separation amongst some of the players), I'd be fairly surprised if he does so next year.

I agree, though, that Ojeleye's most likely path to minutes will be at PF. The perimeter is going to be a fairly crowded picture.

[jimrowe0]

Another ramification of Semi being the 4th big is he doesn't have to jump eight guys to get decent playing time, he only has to jump one (presumably Marshall), though at this moment even that seems pretty unlikely.

Giving his leaping ability, I am sure Semi can jump over Marshall...and dunk. I think Semi has the possibility to play some at the 3 and/or 4 if he can play defense effectively.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Out of curiousity I did some searching to determine if there was a general consensus on Semi in the pre-season, as far as expectations go. Each year after our season ends, it doesn't take long for the talk of next year's roster to take shape; who starts, who plays what position, who gets the minutes. I give kudos to the folks that joined in the discussion, for the most part it was felt that Semi was a raw talent needed developing and therefore was going to fit one of two scenarios. He would either come in for decent, but not major, minutes because of his natural abilities, or he would sit and develop his skills in practice.
In fact, Scout.com echoed those thoughts on their profile blurb about him.

Ojeleye is a player who has a ton of upside and potential given his natural gifts. He has a body where he can play and at times dominate against at either forward position. He is a good athlete who can make shots out to the three point line, and also has shown toughness. Now he does need to be more consistent with his effort and show more of a desire to dominate, especially down low.

http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75...=1&nid=5505411
After looking back through a few dozen posts...Jnort wins. Here is what he wrote.

I just don't buy the Ojeleye hype. At least not that he is good enough to play significant mins his first year. In his YouTube highlights he gets little seperation and does not get open off his own stipple very well. He uses his raw strength to score and bully people around. In college guys will be stronger than they were in high school. I think his 1st year or two will have more growing pains than many expect.

On a fun sidenote, it turns out that if anyone needs a guy with a crystal ball, then go find Jim Sumner. That guy rivals Nostradamus.
From the "who starts" thread posted sometime in the spring/summer last year...

Jefferson, Hairston, Plumlee, Parker and Murphy will each play eight minutes per game at the 5.


Think hockey line changes.


Ojeleye at the 5? Now, that's just silly.

He may have been talking about only one position, but Nostradamus didn't get his predictions exactly perfect either.

[CDu]

Out of curiousity I did some searching to determine if there was a general consensus on Semi in the pre-season, as far as expectations go. Each year after our season ends, it doesn't take long for the talk of next year's roster to take shape; who starts, who plays what position, who gets the minutes. I give kudos to the folks that joined in the discussion, for the most part it was felt that Semi was a raw talent needed developing and therefore was going to fit one of two scenarios. He would either come in for decent, but not major, minutes because of his natural abilities, or he would sit and develop his skills in practice.

For those interested in taking a ride on the time machine: here are a few of the threads discussing Ojeleye's prospects for this past season:
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.c...9-Semi-Ojeleye
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.c...ayed-next-year


I think many of us suspected that Ojeleye (and Jones) would probably play limited minutes this year). I think the folks that felt Ojeleye would play meaningful minutes either thought Coach K would really play a deeper bench, believed his skill was sufficiently close to his athleticism, or maybe just bought into the freshman/recruit hype.

As in that thread, I suspect that next year we're going to again have 2-3 players for whom folks complain about a lack of minutes.

[Edouble]

You may be right, but I'd add that unless Justise is capable of defending opposing PFs (not clear at his size), then Semi is also the 4th big and thus could see minutes in that capacity. On the other hand, if Quinn is our first guy off the bench, then in your scenario whoever of Justise and Matt is not starting will be the 5th perimeter player and will be very unlikely to see starters' minutes as you suggest. My guess is (absent injury) the 5th perimeter guy will average at most 10 to 12 minutes, and Semi as the 4th big will average 6 to 8. Until March, of course, when both those guys' minutes will probably shrink down to negligible.

Another ramification of Semi being the 4th big is he doesn't have to jump eight guys to get decent playing time, he only has to jump one (presumably Marshall), though at this moment even that seems pretty unlikely.

Yes, you're right that the minutes begin to run out if you have five guys on the perimeter. I was thinking that Justise's "starter minutes" might involve taking a few minutes at PF, as opposed to Semi seeing time, particularly if we go to stall ball/small ball at crunch time. I agree with you that it may or may not work at his size.

Can Marshall and Jahill pay on the court at the same time? If so, then I think Semi gets zero minutes, with Amile, Jahill, and Marshall splitting the 80 "big" minutes three ways.

But no matter how the minutes are divided up, the thing that I keep coming back to is that Semi couldn't beat Josh out for playing time this year. No disrespect to Josh, but that has me thinking that Semi is a multi year project. I would be delighted to be wrong.

[CDu]

Can Marshall and Jahill pay on the court at the same time? If so, then I think Semi gets zero minutes, with Amile, Jahill, and Marshall splitting the 80 "big" minutes three ways.

I don't see a lineup of Plumlee and Okafor on the floor together being a very good idea - on either end of the floor. To lacking in quickness on defense; too lacking in shooting range on offense. So I think there are probably about 5-10 mpg (if not more) available to Ojeleye if he's ready.

But no matter how the minutes are divided up, the thing that I keep coming back to is that Semi couldn't beat Josh out for playing time this year. No disrespect to Josh, but that has me thinking that Semi is a multi year project. I would be delighted to be wrong.

On the one hand, I agree. On the other, it could also just be a case in which Coach K felt he needed to use Hairston for his experience, leadership, and understanding of the defensive principles. It wasn't like we needed another offensive weapon out there, and it would be unfair for Ojeleye to be expected to know the defense as well as a senior Hairston. And remember: Ojeleye was a SF in high school. On this team, minutes were only really up for grabs at C (Hood and Dawkins were clearly more ready options at SF and Parker and Jefferson were clearly more ready options at PF). I think it would be unreasonable to expect a freshman to make the transition from high school SF to college C. It worked (sort of) for Singler, but he's pretty much an exceptional case.

That's not to say that Ojeleye's lack of minutes this year shouldn't serve as a question mark moving forward. But I just don't think that we can say with certainty that his inability to displace Hairston as a backup PF/C is clear evidence that he won't be ready to play SF/PF next year.