The Jabari Parker draft vigil

[kAzE]

I'm not sure I see the benefit of comparing Jabari to other Duke freshmen in a "draft vigil" thread, but as far I'm concerned, he had one of the greatest first years of any college basketball player ever, right up there with Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony. Whether he stays or not, I fully support what he does, because he's a really great kid, and he deserves to do what's best for him.

That said, there's absolutely no scenario in which we are a worse team if he decides to come back for another year. Should that be his decision, Duke fans will have a lot to be excited for next year.

[hillsborodevil]

JP is not only a talented young man but also a very grounded individual. He could handle the NBA “lifestyle” way better than Maggette.

If you’re a top 3 pick – Go. Finish your education after your NBA career. Sam Bowie

"Go on take the money and run” Steve Miller Band

[Atlanta Duke]

Laura Keeley of the N&O states the obvious:

And don’t be fooled by Parker’s comments about his “incomplete” career yesterday – with the next question, he admitted that the emotions of the moment were playing into his response – because the staff has been planning for his departure all along.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/03/...#storylink=cpy

Jabari had a great season and his draft stock (worst case scenario top 3) can only go down after this season as potential holes in his game (Keeley notes Jabari was being subbed out for defense Friday) are picked apart. He can work on his game against the best competition in the world while getting paid millions - anyone advising him has to tell him to make the move.

[kAzE]

I somewhat disagree with the premise that his stock can "only" go down if he stays in school. There's almost no chance it goes much higher, considering how highly he is regarded amongst NBA people, but there's a strong possibility he goes top 3 next year as well, and possibly first overall. He does have significant holes in his game, which have already been discussed ad nauseum, so any GM who is doing their job won't be in the dark about his weaknesses as a player.

However, I've always held the belief that Jabari could lose 15 pounds on a serious conditioning regimen and reinvent himself as a small forward who is quicker, more agile, and an outstanding defensive player. He already has great length and vertical leaping ability. He just needs quicker feet, and I'm guessing shedding a few pounds would really change his game. I really think he could do it. If that happens, his stock stays high and he could head to the NBA hopefully with much more to show for his career in college.

Of course, I don't disagree that he should probably go pro. He's ready for the NBA, and the type of conditioning program and dieting that I mentioned would be much easier to fit into his schedule without having to worry about schoolwork and exams. I wish him the best either way. I just hope if he does go pro, that he lands in a great situation and stays healthy. I'd hate to see him stuck with a hopeless franchise until he becomes a free agent.

[jipops]

Hansbrough 22 and 10
Singler 17/7
Barnes 16/6
N. Smitty 17/5 assists

All big time players in this power conference. All those stats are from the year BEFORE their final year.

Attachment 4017

None projected as a top 3 pick nor as a lottery pick after their freshman year.

[pfrduke]

None projected as a top 3 pick nor as a lottery pick after their freshman year.

Barnes definitely would have been a lottery pick after his freshman year. He's the closest comparison (but still not a perfect comparison, since he was perceived as personally not living up to expectations as a freshman, while Parker did).

[Duke95]

There is somewhere between 0% and 0.000000001% chance that Parker is coming back.
He can work on his game in the NBA while making millions and work on his education in the summer. Win-win. Why stay and risk injury? Under the current model, it doesn't make much sense.

[dukelifer]

There is somewhere between 0% and 0.000000001% chance that Parker is coming back.
He can work on his game in the NBA while making millions and work on his education in the summer. Win-win. Why stay and risk injury? Under the current model, it doesn't make much sense.

So there is a chance

[gurufrisbee]

Maybe I'm way off base, but in my head things that would still be important to me facing the same decision:

* Learning more from the best basketball coach on the planet
* Actually winning something (conference title, conference tournament, national title, etc)
* Not leaving a program having accomplished so little as a team (considering that team success is supposed to be bigger than individual success)

I get the money and the injury risk factors, but college is such a brief window and there is so much potential for next year if Jabari (or even Rodney or even both) came back - both in terms of individual improvement (defense) and accomplishment (POY) and in terms of team accomplishments.

It's funny how much people talk about player's legacy in the NBA when they never win a tltle (Barkley, KMalone, Carmelo, etc.) and how much the talk changes once they do (Lebron, Dirk, etc.). I wish the same thing would happen more in college - simply because I wish more kids would stay and get their education and enjoy and maximize the college opportunities and experiences more. I'm sure I'm in the minority about this, but I don't see Rivers or Deng or Kyrie as great Duke players at all. They just feel like they came and used Duke for a year more than anything else.

[mkirsh]

My 2 cents for what it's worth (likely less than 2 cents):

I think the "he could use one more year to get better" argument is flawed. Players do get a lot better in the NBA, where they are practicing against pros every day instead of college kids for a max of 20 hours per week. Look at all the Duke examples - both Plumlees, McRoberts, Redick, Maggette just to name a few. Heck, even look at Ryan Kelly this year and tell me how much better we would have been with 2014 NBA Ryan Kelly on last year's team. Imagine if 2014 JJ Redick had one more year of eligibility, what do you think he would average, something like 45 per game? I think Jabari's best Duke comp is Loul Deng, who was NBA ready after one year. Jabari is equally if not more NBA ready and will do very well at the next level. In my opinion the best reasons for him to come back (outside preferring the college experience to NBA lifestyle which I imagine would be hard on a 19 year old Mormon) would be if he wanted the experience of leading a team. Think maybe 1% chance that he comes back but won't be to develop his skill set.

Second point - On the Kyrie Irving comparisons, I'm as big a fan as Kyrie as anyone, but I don't think it's fair to extrapolate his first 8 games to an entire season. We never go to see how Kyrie would respond to opposing defenses game-planning for him, if he would have hit a freshman wall, if he had to endure a shooting slump, etc. By comparison, Jabari's first 8 games were off the charts too. Here's how they stack up:

Kyrie first 8 games (Princeton, Miami (OH), Colgate, Columbia, Marquette, K-State, Oregon, MSU, Butler)
Min 28.9
Points 17.4
FG% 53%
3p% 45%
FT% 90%
Rebs 3.8
Assits 5.1
TOs 2.8
Steals 1.5
Blocks 0.6


Jabari's first 8 games (Davidson, Kansas, FL Atlantic, UNCA, ECU, Vermont, Alabama, UCLA)
Min 31.0
Points 23.0
FG% 55%
3p% 50%
FT% 73%
Rebs 8.0
Assits 2.0
TOs 3.1
Steals 1.3
Blocks 1.8

I think we all forget how hot Jabari started the year. Pretty astounding first 8 games for both. Jabari's stats are better, but Kyrie had other strong players on the team to share the load with and played slightly tougher schedule.

Not going to weigh in on the "is Jabari the best player ever at Duke", but the fact that there is even a debate means he among the elite of the elite here.

[CajunDevil]

As others have stated, Jabari's game is nba-ready. The only reason for Jabari to come back - what his game is lacking and what he can't get from a struggling Nba team - is how to be a leader from the greatest "professor" of leadership there is - Coach K.

[moonpie23]

unfortunately, leaving millions on the table, while exposing yourself to possible injury, just doesn't make sense...

[Gthoma2a]

My 2 cents for what it's worth (likely less than 2 cents):

I think the "he could use one more year to get better" argument is flawed. Players do get a lot better in the NBA, where they are practicing against pros every day instead of college kids for a max of 20 hours per week. Look at all the Duke examples - both Plumlees, McRoberts, Redick, Maggette just to name a few. Heck, even look at Ryan Kelly this year and tell me how much better we would have been with 2014 NBA Ryan Kelly on last year's team. Imagine if 2014 JJ Redick had one more year of eligibility, what do you think he would average, something like 45 per game? I think Jabari's best Duke comp is Loul Deng, who was NBA ready after one year. Jabari is equally if not more NBA ready and will do very well at the next level. In my opinion the best reasons for him to come back (outside preferring the college experience to NBA lifestyle which I imagine would be hard on a 19 year old Mormon) would be if he wanted the experience of leading a team. Think maybe 1% chance that he comes back but won't be to develop his skill set.

Second point - On the Kyrie Irving comparisons, I'm as big a fan as Kyrie as anyone, but I don't think it's fair to extrapolate his first 8 games to an entire season. We never go to see how Kyrie would respond to opposing defenses game-planning for him, if he would have hit a freshman wall, if he had to endure a shooting slump, etc. By comparison, Jabari's first 8 games were off the charts too. Here's how they stack up:

Kyrie first 8 games (Princeton, Miami (OH), Colgate, Columbia, Marquette, K-State, Oregon, MSU, Butler)
Min 28.9
Points 17.4
FG% 53%
3p% 45%
FT% 90%
Rebs 3.8
Assits 5.1
TOs 2.8
Steals 1.5
Blocks 0.6


Jabari's first 8 games (Davidson, Kansas, FL Atlantic, UNCA, ECU, Vermont, Alabama, UCLA)
Min 31.0
Points 23.0
FG% 55%
3p% 50%
FT% 73%
Rebs 8.0
Assits 2.0
TOs 3.1
Steals 1.3
Blocks 1.8

I think we all forget how hot Jabari started the year. Pretty astounding first 8 games for both. Jabari's stats are better, but Kyrie had other strong players on the team to share the load with and played slightly tougher schedule.

Not going to weigh in on the "is Jabari the best player ever at Duke", but the fact that there is even a debate means he among the elite of the elite here.

Look at the teams on that list and you see a world of difference (these were all pretty good teams Marquette, K-State, Oregon, MSU, Butler). That, and look at the defense played by the two players on those games. Remember the KSU game, when Jacob Pullen was the senior that they thought was going to exploit Kyrie's youth, so the media all thought that Nolan would have to cover him? You remember that Kyrie came out, played amazing offense and shut Pullen down on D? That is a big thing, to me. Kyrie was a very good college defender when he was healthy.

I think the difference is that, while Jabari is a great college basketball player, I wonder if it translates to a STAR in the NBA with what he knows now. Kyrie had enough D to perform and he was the guy who was able to take over the ends of games (the one he lost was over just after half-time, but in games that were still open). The moves he made were so crisp and special that there was no doubt that he was going to be able to wow crowds at the next level. Jabari plays a different position and in a different way. He will have to muscle NBA players and he will have to shoot over them when he can't. He will also have to have a sustained effort for the entire game. That includes defensively.

I think the difference, when looking at them as next level, is that one was a sure fire star, if healthy, and the other is guaranteed to play in the NBA, not STAR. Kyrie just WAS a scoring point guard with a handle that made him the most mobile guy on the court. Jabari will have to rely on moves, conditioning and strength to carry him through his career. And he's got to learn defense. I think it will help him, defensively, to have a big back line behind him, though. No matter what, all parties will be okay. If he works hard enough at the right things, he will succeed. That is no matter what he chooses.

[DukeGrad]

Is there a possibility that the money incentive may not be as great for Parker? With an ex-NBA player for a father, his situation my be similar to Hansbrough's where money wasn't necessarily the overwhelming factor in his decision.

I also wonder what part Parker's faith will play in his decision.

I have no doubt Parker will make the best decision, and sadly (for us) I think he's headed to the NBA.

[grossbus]

""Go on take the money and run” Steve Miller Band"

"Stay" Maurice Williams and the Zodiacs

[roywhite]

""Go on take the money and run” Steve Miller Band"

"Stay" Maurice Williams and the Zodiacs

Easy choice (for me).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1Z_hskvz1M

[gurufrisbee]

It's important to remember there are different levels of NBA ready. You can be ready to come in and sit at the end of the bench, ready to come in and compete for a starting spot, ready to come in and be an all star out of the gate. Jabari was NBA ready at the lowest level before he finished high school. IMHO, he's a long way from being ready at the highest level. I'm not sure his defense is good enough to be an NBA starter yet. And while he was good most of the season, I'd still be a little hesitant from the Notre Dame/Syracuse/Virginia/Mercer games that he's matured enough to be a leader and the big time performer you want in the tough games. All these things will likely improve the next couple years no matter where he is playing - but if he wants to be more NBA ready before he is in the NBA, he does have that option.

[MCFinARL]

Is there a possibility that the money incentive may not be as great for Parker? With an ex-NBA player for a father, his situation my be similar to Hansbrough's where money wasn't necessarily the overwhelming factor in his decision.

I also wonder what part Parker's faith will play in his decision.

I have no doubt Parker will make the best decision, and sadly (for us) I think he's headed to the NBA.

I think it's a very good bet Parker's faith will play a big role in his decision, since it seems to be important to him--although of course there is no telling HOW it might influence his decision.

Someone upthread also mentioned Parker's dad's illness, which might also cut either way--desire to stay on a less rigorous schedule, so he can be more in contact with his family, or desire to start the next stage now, either for potential financial security (while his family may be financially secure, serious illness can deplete resources shockingly quickly) or to ensure maximum availability of his father's counsel and support.

Parker seems to like college a lot, and he obviously feels the sting of unfinished business. On a personal level, as opposed to a basketball level, the grind of NBA rookiehood might not be all that appealing a lifestyle for a level-headed 19-year-old. And he is young enough and talented enough that, barring injury, the extra year isn't likely to worsen his draft status significantly, even if it can't really help it much. If he can properly insure himself, he may well surprise us and decide to stay another year.

But I doubt it. Once the shock and pain of the abrupt tournament departure wear off, I'm guessing he will conclude that, on balance, leaving school makes the most sense. Can't fault him for that--he could learn things from staying, but probably nothing he can't learn by going, in a different way.

[MCFinARL]

..just a little bit longer. Please, please, please, please, please....

[SoCalDukeFan]

I think it's a very good bet Parker's faith will play a big role in his decision, since it seems to be important to him--although of course there is no telling HOW it might influence his decision.

Someone upthread also mentioned Parker's dad's illness, which might also cut either way--desire to stay on a less rigorous schedule, so he can be more in contact with his family, or desire to start the next stage now, either for potential financial security (while his family may be financially secure, serious illness can deplete resources shockingly quickly) or to ensure maximum availability of his father's counsel and support.

Parker seems to like college a lot, and he obviously feels the sting of unfinished business. On a personal level, as opposed to a basketball level, the grind of NBA rookiehood might not be all that appealing a lifestyle for a level-headed 19-year-old. And he is young enough and talented enough that, barring injury, the extra year isn't likely to worsen his draft status significantly, even if it can't really help it much. If he can properly insure himself, he may well surprise us and decide to stay another year.

But I doubt it. Once the shock and pain of the abrupt tournament departure wear off, I'm guessing he will conclude that, on balance, leaving school makes the most sense. Can't fault him for that--he could learn things from staying, but probably nothing he can't learn by going, in a different way.

I agree with your last paragraph. And it is sad.

I rewatched something about the 91/92 back to back championship. My guess is that Laettner and Hill treasure their years at Duke far more than any in the NBA. If Jabari turns out to be a NBA superstar, he will make money than he can intelligently spend in the NBA no matter how many years he stays at Duke. But it probably makes sense for Parker to leave.

SoCal