The Jabari Parker draft vigil

[dukelifer]

Too raw. You could see the NBA potential (freak athlete), but not yet the skill. Maggette is probably the perfect example of why returning to school isn't the only path to improve your game.

True if you are an athletic freak.

[cspan37421]

I hope Jabari gets lots of advice on what to do from Austin Rivers. While their position on the court is quite different, the similarities between those two feels overwhelming. Both were the leading scorer as freshmen, though neither was really a leader of the team. Both had impressive offensive skills, though neither really worked on offense with their teammates at all. Both of them never played any good defense. Neither of them won a conference title or conference tournament. And both of them went 0-1 in the NCAA tournament where they played like a scared freshman.

And we've seen what a great pro career Rivers was prepared to have.

That is harshly worded, and I find it hyperbolic in some ways.

That said, it did cross my mind that the last time we had anything as close to an inefficient defense as this year, we had another freshman superstar who turned pro after one year (and a first-round exit from the NCAAT) and whose early pro accomplishments are disappointing to say the least. Austin may yet develop to be a good pro - heck, Josh McRoberts still plays and might even be a starter (on a bad team that is making a push to reach mediocre). Of course, Josh was two-and-done, not one-and-done.

But we've had one-and-dones who have had success (Maggette, Deng, Irving) and others who have not (Avery, and so far, Rivers). Jabari may well develop into a solid all-around player at the NBA level. But I think he'll be off to a very rough start if his defense resembles what we saw this year. I would love for him to stay and become that better all-around player at Duke, but obviously he needs to do what's best for him and his family. When Brand went pro after 2 years, I recall Coach K saying something like, "there's nothing more I can teach him here." I don't think that's at all the issue for Jabari. And what's more, the performance against Mercer (Hood's too) may prove to have been costly. Another season, marked by more consistent offense, respectable defense, and a better jump shot might put that and his mid-season swoon in the rear view mirror for GMs, and could be very lucrative in the end for him. Of course, there's that injury risk. It's a tough call. Whether he stays or goes, he has some work to do on his game. It's up to him where he wants to do it.

[NashvilleDevil]

That is harshly worded, and I find it hyperbolic in some ways.

That said, it did cross my mind that the last time we had anything as close to an inefficient defense as this year, we had another freshman superstar who turned pro after one year (and a first-round exit from the NCAAT) and whose early pro accomplishments are disappointing to say the least. Austin may yet develop to be a good pro - heck, Josh McRoberts still plays and might even be a starter (on a bad team that is making a push to reach mediocre). Of course, Josh was two-and-done, not one-and-done.

But we've had one-and-dones who have had success (Maggette, Deng, Irving) and others who have not (Avery, and so far, Rivers). Jabari may well develop into a solid all-around player at the NBA level. But I think he'll be off to a very rough start if his defense resembles what we saw this year. I would love for him to stay and become that better all-around player at Duke, but obviously he needs to do what's best for him and his family. When Brand went pro after 2 years, I recall Coach K saying something like, "there's nothing more I can teach him here." I don't think that's at all the issue for Jabari. And what's more, the performance against Mercer (Hood's too) may prove to have been costly. Another season, marked by more consistent offense, respectable defense, and a better jump shot might put that and his mid-season swoon in the rear view mirror for GMs, and could be very lucrative in the end for him. Of course, there's that injury risk. It's a tough call. Whether he stays or goes, he has some work to do on his game. It's up to him where he wants to do it.

Avery was a sophomore.

[sagegrouse]

I hope Jabari gets lots of advice on what to do from Austin Rivers. While their position on the court is quite different, the similarities between those two feels overwhelming. Both were the leading scorer as freshmen, though neither was really a leader of the team. Both had impressive offensive skills, though neither really worked on offense with their teammates at all. Both of them never played any good defense. Neither of them won a conference title or conference tournament. And both of them went 0-1 in the NCAA tournament where they played like a scared freshman.

And we've seen what a great pro career Rivers was prepared to have.

What you are supporting through argument is that the team results are quite similar between 2011 and 2014. Otherwise, ... not much similarity that I see.

For example. Jabari, if he goes, will be at the top of the draft. Austin was the #10 pick. As you point out, they play different positions (but still "similarities ... feel[] overwhelming?"). I suspect many analysts would say that Jabari Parker is one of the most skilled freshmen ever. Certainly, Austin was not a first-team All-American like Jabari appears to be.

I am puzzled by your motive in this post.

[CajunDevil]

Jabari could be top pick in draft and no lower than 3. His situation is totally different than Austin's. Additionally, Jabari's offensive game is much more advanced than Austin's. Other than team results no legit comparison to be made here.

[4Gen]

I never post re basketball expertise. I know when I'm out of my area of expertise. I do know that I like Jabari, and I wish him the very best.

[dcar1985]

I'd love for Jabari to return for his sophomore year but I almost want him to leave b/c of the way some of you guys seem to be under appreciating Jabari and the year he had. Whether you "think" he's the greatest freshmen at Duke ever he just completed arguably (not really) the greatest freshmen year ever at Duke. First team AA, First team ACC, ROY, Lead the conference in rebounding, 2nd in points. Sure his defense isn't great at this point but what player doesn't have things to work on in their game.

We saw Jabari go for 30 and 11? against UNC and then people saying Tyler was man of the match for being scrappy out there. Just seemed like Jabari was taken for granted all year by some. The kid played his heart out all year wasn't some superstar prima donna, for all accounts he was a team first guy who just wanted to win. But now that the season has ended prematurely some seem to be throwing him under the bus low key. I don't get it or think its right.

[cspan37421]

Avery was a sophomore.

Thank you for the correction! Memory is going ... 1999 is getting further in the rear view mirror. As I recall, K endorsed Brand going but did not feel Avery was ready.

[wsb3]

Thank you for the correction! Memory is going ... 1999 is getting further in the rear view mirror. As I recall, K endorsed Brand going but did not feel Avery was ready.

I think everyone knew Avery was not ready.

[sagegrouse]

I think everyone knew Avery was not ready.

Except the T-wolves

[Spoke]

I love Jabari Parker. I think he's a fantastic player, BUT, part of the reason he put up the numbers he did is that he is playing in the one-and-done era. What if Kyrie Irving and Austin Rivers were still on the team (as they would be if not for early exits). Would Jabari still be putting up the same eye-popping numbers? Or would he defer to older players as Grant Hill did?

It would be great to see him in a Duke uniform for one more year, but that would be a tough decision for him to make.

[UrinalCake]

During the season I heard people saying things like they thought Jabari would average 15 and 7 in the NBA this year, and I just don't see it. I think he's a great college player offensively, enormously talented and has a tremendous feel for the game. But in the NBA he'd be going against either a power forward who is bigger and stronger than him and just as quick, or a small forward who is roughly the same size as him and a whole lot faster and more athletic. Physically I just don't think he's ready. I mean he still appeared to be gassed by the end of the games even late in the season, and these are 40 minute games. Defensively we know he's a liability. So I guess my fear if I were him is that I would leave as a high lottery pick, not be ready to contribute right away, and then be labelled as somewhat of a bust.

Obviously that's the worst case scenario, and it's entirely possible that he'll be successful right off the bat, or that whatever team drafts him is willing to give him a year or two to develop. But it wouldn't be the worst decision either to stay another year and continue to develop, then be more ready when he does leave.

[oakvillebluedevil]

And we've seen what a great pro career Rivers was prepared to have.

Agreed that Austin didn't get off to a great start, but he's quietly showing an upward trajectory this year.

Pelicans picked up his third year option in October (Effectively the Mendoza line for first round picks), and he's raised his PER from the near-catastrophic 5.9 last year to a more stomachable ~11 this year. Caught a couple of his games, and his ability to get to the basket seems a couple notches stronger than it was at Duke. It really stands out on an NBA court, which is saying something. Obviously has a long way to go before his career can be called a success, but he's showing a bit more potential this year.

Definitely could have benefitted from another year or two of work, particularly on his finishing - still well below average.

Both of them never played any good defense.

I remember watching the 2012 team (my senior year at Duke) and being at least mildly impressed with Austin's defensive ability and effort. Was the top perimeter defender on that team IMHO.

[Furniture]

I'd love for Jabari to return for his sophomore year but I almost want him to leave b/c of the way some of you guys seem to be under appreciating Jabari and the year he had. Whether you "think" he's the greatest freshmen at Duke ever he just completed arguably (not really) the greatest freshmen year ever at Duke. First team AA, First team ACC, ROY, Lead the conference in rebounding, 2nd in points. Sure his defense isn't great at this point but what player doesn't have things to work on in their game.

We saw Jabari go for 30 and 11? against UNC and then people saying Tyler was man of the match for being scrappy out there. Just seemed like Jabari was taken for granted all year by some. The kid played his heart out all year wasn't some superstar prima donna, for all accounts he was a team first guy who just wanted to win. But now that the season has ended prematurely some seem to be throwing him under the bus low key. I don't get it or think its right.

I completely agree with you. But on the other hand it was easy (in a way) to take him for granted because he did all those incredible things so quietly. But stats cannot be ignored.
I am also flummoxed about the stick he got about his step back jumpers. Yes he did miss a few but in the same games he would score 20 points and x number rebounds. Yet people would complain about his shot selection and not say a word about another player who had not scored that day. Bewildering to me.

[oakvillebluedevil]

I think he's a great college player offensively, enormously talented and has a tremendous feel for the game. But in the NBA he'd be going against either a power forward who is bigger and stronger than him and just as quick, or a small forward who is roughly the same size as him and a whole lot faster and more athletic.

Agreed with both of those sentences. One thing I notice about him is that in the half court, it seemed like every bucket he scored was tough and contested. It didn't seem like he had a lot of margin for error. He'd force post shots up through heavy traffic and contact, or take contested fadeaways. His shot did not consistently have 3pt range, so it allowed opponents to take a step back and contain the drive. I'm afraid that when people get stronger, longer, and faster, that margin will disappear and he'll be an inefficient player.

I remember watching Kyrie take it to the likes of Kalen Lucas and Jacob Pullen, and it seemed easy for him. That didn't seem to be the case as much w/ Jabari this year.

[Edouble]

Jabari could be top pick in draft and no lower than 3. His situation is totally different than Austin's. Additionally, Jabari's offensive game is much more advanced than Austin's. Other than team results no legit comparison to be made here.

I believe he could fall out of the top 3. Depending on how the ping pong balls end up, it is not out of the question to see a top 3 of Wiggins, Embiid, and Exum. I also think Randle could push Jabari as low as the 5 spot. Crazier things have happened on draft night.

[sagegrouse]

During the season I heard people saying things like they thought Jabari would average 15 and 7 in the NBA this year, and I just don't see it. I think he's a great college player offensively, enormously talented and has a tremendous feel for the game. But in the NBA he'd be going against either a power forward who is bigger and stronger than him and just as quick, or a small forward who is roughly the same size as him and a whole lot faster and more athletic. Physically I just don't think he's ready. I mean he still appeared to be gassed by the end of the games even late in the season, and these are 40 minute games. Defensively we know he's a liability. So I guess my fear if I were him is that I would leave as a high lottery pick, not be ready to contribute right away, and then be labelled as somewhat of a bust.

Obviously that's the worst case scenario, and it's entirely possible that he'll be successful right off the bat, or that whatever team drafts him is willing to give him a year or two to develop. But it wouldn't be the worst decision either to stay another year and continue to develop, then be more ready when he does leave.

Jabari would average more than ten points a game on open-court action: he is big, sure-handed, creative -- a real load. That and a few points on regular offense would give him 15. The greater strength of NBA inside players wouldn't come into play in the open court.

Of course, I hope we don't find out any time soon which one of us is right.

[jipops]

The kid averaged 19 and 8 as a freshman in a power conference. He's gone. It is more likely that K will employ a zone next season than the probability that Jabari will be back.

I wish him the best. He seems to be a genuinely good kid who wants to keep getting better as a player and as a person. I hope he finds himself in a good situation to grow while playing in the NBA next season.

[mo.st.dukie]

The kid averaged 19 and 8 as a freshman in a power conference. He's gone. It is more likely that K will employ a zone next season than the probability that Jabari will be back.

I wish him the best. He seems to be a genuinely good kid who wants to keep getting better as a player and as a person. I hope he finds himself in a good situation to grow while playing in the NBA next season.

I know only one choice he has where he is guaranteed to be in a great situation to learn and grow as an athlete and as a person, he just won't be making millions of dollars or any dollars at that.

Sometimes the situations in the NBA aren't as conducive to athletic and personal growth, it just depends on who you end up with, you don't get to choose where you play. That's why sometimes you here that being an undrafted free agent can be better than being a 2nd round pick because you get to choose the organization you play for and the city you want to live in. But of course, that will be the case no matter when he enters the draft, but perhaps it would be helpful and allow him to deal with a tough situation easier if he had another year of maturing and developing in a great situation in college

[JPtheGame]

The kid averaged 19 and 8 as a freshman in a power conference. He's gone. It is more likely that K will employ a zone next season than the probability that Jabari will be back.

I wish him the best. He seems to be a genuinely good kid who wants to keep getting better as a player and as a person. I hope he finds himself in a good situation to grow while playing in the NBA next season.

Hansbrough 22 and 10
Singler 17/7
Barnes 16/6
N. Smitty 17/5 assists

All big time players in this power conference. All those stats are from the year BEFORE their final year.

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