On Coaching

[heyman25]

Mike Gminski, Christian Laettner, Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, Shelden Williams.

Gminski a true interior post man. Laettner was great inside and out.
Brand Boozer and Williams to me were power forwards.
Okafor will be a center that can post up like Gminski and yes Randy Denton.

[Indoor66]

Gminski a true interior post man. Laettner was great inside and out.
Brand Boozer and Williams to me were power forwards.
Okafor will be a center that can post up like Gminski and yes Randy Denton.

Frankly, I see distinctions without difference in your post. All of the named players were the centers on their team. Their later positions seem, to me, irrelevant to the discussion.

[TruBlu]

Great and thoughtful analysis by the O P. (I couldn't spork PFR, but others probably did).

26-9, in college basketball, is a "very good year." There's nothing wrong with K saying that. It wasn't as good a year as we all wished, to be sure. I echo others on this thread in saying it wasn't as good as it could or perhaps should have been. This team had tremendous talent all over the court. Everyone who is disappointed with where we ended up is right to feel so. But come on. We played almost .750 ball. That's very good. It's just not extraordinary.

Like the old saying: "Good isn't good enough when better was expected."

[rocketeli]

Great post from the OP, and many thoughtful responses. I think the OP listed all the concerns and thoughts I have been having. Was anybody else disappointed but not surprised by Friday’s outcome? I agree that coaching was an issue this year. It seemed that the staff suffered from “imagination failure,” and kept trying to cram the players they had into some predetermined “Duke team” mold, rather than maximizing their strengths (offensive firepower, shooting, quickness, depth) all season long. The only exception to this was the wholesale substitution thing, and it worked-and then they (Coach K?) abandoned it. Let’s hope that the answer to our often asked question “What would Coach K do with Kentucky/UNC etc’s talent? doesn’t turn out to be “jack--,” and this is just a down year for the coaching for a variety of reasons already mentioned.

[arnie]

Great and thoughtful analysis by the O P. (I couldn't spork PFR, but others probably did).



Like the old saying: "Good isn't good enough when better was expected."

Yes, we all need to lower our expectations. We saw issues with this team early and yet most (me included) thought the team could figure it out. Losing to Mercer should be unexpected, but this team was never going to go far. Next year's team will likely be ranked Top 5-10 preseason, but probably should not expect those results. Without great guard defense our defensive philosophy will fail us.

[Matches]

A lot of good points by the original poster.

I would like to see us a sagging defense situationally. To carry out K's preferred defensive style, we need super-quick guards who can pressure the opponent out beyond the 3-pt line and yet still do a reasonable job of resisting dribble penetration. When we don't have that, it puts tremendous pressure on our bigs. Even with NBA-quality bigs like Mason and Miles and Ryan in the paint, it's a difficult thing for our bigs.

I'd just like to see a little more variance in what we do. I wonder if the "book" is out on attacking our defense at this point. It seems like we do the same things, just about all game, just about every game, and at this point everyone and their grandma knows the game plan to beat it. We'll pressure the ball anywhere over halfcourt, so if you can get by our lead guard the defense breaks down. We'll switch aggressively on screens, so if you use ball screens you can create some weird/ suboptimal matchups. We'll hawk passing lanes so we're vulnerable to backdoor cuts. And we'll help aggressively (or try to) if the guards are beaten, so if you make an extra pass you can get an easy bucket and/or draw a foul.

Sometimes our guys are good enough that it doesn't matter if opponents know what we're doing - having a gameplan and executing it are two different things. But where we have personnel that doesn't match that strategy to a T - as was the case this year - attacking our defense is pretty devestatingly simple. If *I* know how to beat it you can bet every competent head coach in America does, too.

K has been masterful at adapting the offense to fit our personnel over the years, or even within a season, but at times he seems strangely unwilling to adjust the defensive game plan when it clearly isn't working. From the outside, the staff's response to defensive breakdowns appears to be to yell at the players or insist that they just need to try harder, without a compensatory scheme alteration. I'm not saying we should turn into Syracuse - just that maybe playing defense differently depending on situations and/or personnel might make us a little tougher to prepare for, and make course corrections easier when there's a problem.

[Reilly]

Yesterday, we lost in the round of 64.

50 years ago yesterday, we lost in the national championship game:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...3-21-duke.html

Bring back Bubas!

[BlueTeuf]

Real nice job by the OP.

Some random snippets from my twisted world...honest, but none of them charitable:

I've been ready for Coach to move on for a while... awesome recruiter, unsurpassed program builder, passé tactician and strategist. Stubborn as hell.

Take the 2010 title out of the résumé and the story's rather bland. But of course, you can't take away the 2010 title - nor do I want to.

Coach prides himself on getting people to accept their roles. Works fabulously for winning with NBA superstars. Is a crappy way to deal with 18 yr old HS phenoms who need to develop each and every part of their game (and self-confidence). I wouldn't send my son to Coach unless he received the promises that Jabari received. I don't respect the promises Coach offered Jabari. (remember, I'm twisted)

This board often observes we don't know what goes on in practices. Other than practicing an outdated, ill-suited defense, I'm not sure much goes on in practices. We are pedestrian at getting the ball in bounds, breaking the press or pressing ourselves. Blocking out, snappy passing; those skills are for lesser teams. Our physical fitness is suspect.

How can you effectively practice defense if you have no idea how to run set plays on offense? How do you practice post defense when you have no idea how to feed the post? How do you practice post offense when you don't have any ability to play post defense?

That said, Coach has earned the privilege to coach as long as he wants to - I don't begrudge him that. I respect and admire his complete body of work and am thrilled we were blessed to bring him on at such a young age and exercise the institutional patience that got us through some early growing pains.

No matter how this sounds, I am accepting this loss in stride. I told my (inappropriately) devastated freshman daughter that yesterday would be a wake up call for the coaching staff. 20 hours later, I'm losing much conviction for such a silver lining. I see from these boards that many don't agree on a need for change. I don't think the Coach Krzyzewski of 1988 would agree with them. However, it's 2014 and as may soon be pointed out - I have no idea what Coach is thinking.

So, for me, it's patience in the beginning and patience at the end. As many have pointed out - it wasn't a bad season. Heck it was a "very good year".

[Troublemaker]

Excellent post, pfr. Whether one agrees with all, some, or none of your points, your post --its thoughtfulness, quality, and humility-- gave us a better chance of having a level-headed discussion on this topic.

I wanted to focus in on our how Duke plays defense. You provide very good summaries below. The second excerpt was something you wrote in the Mercer pre-game thread.

• We play aggressive defense on the perimeter, extending beyond the three point line, hedging high rather than laterally, trying to deny passing lanes, etc. That style creates contact on the perimeter, and we got called for it more this year than in years past.
• Our team struggled all year with team defense. The rotations didn't come quickly enough, players (especially Parker, but not limited to him) struggled guarding screen situations, and communication was not a strength. Again, we did not change philosophy, even when we continued to struggle with the approach.

If you were asked to sum up a Coach K defense in a single philosophy, "don't let opponents shoot 3s" would be the most accurate statement. It's the one defensive thing we've done more consistently - and more consistently well - than anything else. We've been in the top 25 in this category nationally in every year since 2003 and in the top 5 nationally in all of those years except for last year (24th - a real aberration for us) and 2010 (11th). As you say, the commitment to extending the defense out to the three point line and running shooters off of those shots does open up interior lanes, which requires help and rotation, but that's something that we are always vulnerable to and thus (I suspect, having never been in a practice personally) are always working on.

Additionally, for further setup to a point/theory I'll be making soon, here are Duke's defensive ranks in the past dozen years (the kenpom era):

Year	D-Rnk
2003	16
2004	4
2005	3
2006	18
2007	7
2008	8
2009	36
2010	8
2011	21
2012	81
2013	31
2014	114

Looking at that table, one might ask: Was there something that changed in 2009 that caused Duke's defense to be generally less effective over the past six seasons?

In fact, there WAS a major change to college basketball that was implemented starting with the 2009 season. It was an offensive rule change that ironically might have ended up affecting our defense given how we choose to play defense. Beginning in 2009, the 3-point arc was extended to 20'9" from the previous 19'9" that had been in place since the 1987 season.

My theory is a ridiculously simple one that I'm not sure I believe myself: The extra bit of court area our defense has had to cover since 2009 has caused our defensive rotations to suffer. That is, help defenders are coming from a little bit farther away than they had been prior to the 3-pt line extension, and therefore, sometimes help defenders arrive a little bit later than what they have to be in order to properly contest the offensive player, who is often someone that has driven into the lane.

[jv001]

I guess the biggest disappointment for me with this team, was waiting for the team to reach it's ceiling, especially on defense. I just couldn't get my mind to accept that these gifted athletes couldn't move their feet and could not communicate on defense. My heart goes out to Jabari, Rodney and the seniors. They played hard and gave it their all. If Jabari stays(miracle) or goes, I'll always respect this young man. We are blessed to have him as a Duke Blue Devil. GoDuke!

[pfrduke]

First off, thanks for putting together such a strong post. As others have said, it is well done and I agree with much of it. What is your source for the statement about us being more reliant on the 3 than any other year? I ask because I remember a point at least 2/3rds through the season where this did not appear to be the trend. What are the relevant stats? Again, I am curious and I can't find relevant stats outside of attempts each year...and this year seems comparable.

We finished the season taking 39.7% of our attempts from 3, which was 40th in the country. The only year since 2003 (which is as far back as Pomeroy data goes) where we were higher was 2005 (39.8% of our attempts from 33, 33rd in the country). We were also high in 2012 and 2008, over 38% both years. More often we're in the 33-35% range.

I recall us being at a lower attempt percentage earlier in the season as well, so it may have been that we got more reliant on the 3 as the season went on.

[pfrduke]

In fact, there WAS a major change to college basketball that was implemented starting with the 2009 season. It was an offensive rule change that ironically might have ended up affecting our defense given how we choose to play defense. Beginning in 2009, the 3-point arc was extended to 20'9" from the previous 19'9" that had been in place since the 1987 season.

My theory is a ridiculously simple one that I'm not sure I believe myself: The extra bit of court area our defense has had to cover since 2009 has caused our defensive rotations to suffer. That is, help defenders are coming from a little bit farther away than they had been prior to the 3-pt line extension, and therefore, sometimes help defenders arrive a little bit later than what they have to be in order to properly contest the offensive player, who is often someone that has driven into the lane.

This is a completely reasonable theory. It's not like our rotations are dramatically off - we often seem to be about a half-step behind, which could be explained by the fact that we are covering more ground.

[_Gary]

We finished the season taking 39.7% of our attempts from 3, which was 40th in the country. The only year since 2003 (which is as far back as Pomeroy data goes) where we were higher was 2005 (39.8% of our attempts from 33, 33rd in the country). We were also high in 2012 and 2008, over 38% both years. More often we're in the 33-35% range.

I recall us being at a lower attempt percentage earlier in the season as well, so it may have been that we got more reliant on the 3 as the season went on.

Thanks for the stats. Another spork for that. I think the reason we saw a rise in 3PP as the season moved forward has direct correlation with our slowing down. Early on we'd see Jabari (and others) pull down boards and initiate fast breaks. As the season wore on we did this less and less. Once we got into half court sets we seemed to rely more and more of 3 point shots. I think this was due, in part, to the lack of a pentetrating PG on the team. The only time we saw anyone "drive" when we were in a half court was when either Jabari or Rodney went one on one with their man, or on occasion when Rasheed would try to slash. But other than that, we saw very little ball movement toward the basket. It was all perimeter passing, which led to more 3 point shooting. At least that's what I think happened.

[cspan37421]

Those defensive numbers are very interesting - and frankly, an indictment. 2014 may continue to change as kenpom is still updating with tournament results.

It is sad to me that this incredibly talented team failed to play better defense. Either they would not or could not. I now lean toward the latter, as I've seen quite a bit of maturing of attitude on the part of some of our players who were formerly prone to being mouthy, woofing, etc. I am glad for that, and I don't see them tuning out the coach during timeouts. There's every reason to suppose they are trying but just cannot execute on defense. Our superstar seemed to be particularly weak on defense, but I think there may be another reason for that ... he felt (probably correctly) that we could not afford to have him foul out. So he conserved his fouls not unlike a certain other coach has a reputation for conserving his time-outs. Long way of saying that I suspect he could play tougher defense, but perhaps not without regularly risking DQ with 5 fouls.

As for others, I don't understand why there was not improvement or progression during the year. I can't say that I called it, but the 91-90 home win against Vermont struck me as a bad omen, and it did prove to be a harbinger of the defensive struggles to come.

The OP made a great respectful but frank analysis, and I think I agree wholeheartedly. A number of people have cited rules changes as possible causes of our troubles. It seems to me that every coach and team in the country faced the same change and it clearly did not affect others as much as us (if that was a factor). We can't blame the rule change without blaming ourselves for failing to adapt. Frankly I am a skeptic that it was a significant factor at all. Our coaches had to know, and a few players haven't been in our system long enough to have habits that are hard to break (perhaps it might have affected TT, but I'm sure other programs have senior guards too!).

One thing that was kind of interesting is how many different players were stars for a given game. Sure, Jabari had more than his share. But earlier in the season, Hood sometimes outshined him. Rasheed had great games here and there, and Cook's play might be infuriating one game, only to be "bacon-saving" the next. Even Andre had a few great games. Sometimes it's wonderful to have so many weapons, your opponent can't just focus on one guy and make the others beat you - because they will. However, too often the others could not beat them. If Andre hits 40% from 3 in the Mercer game, it probably would have played out differently. And he was not the only one to have a down game.

All this gets to a sense of identity ... we didn't really settle on a lineup with well-defined roles. And of course we lacked veterans among our stars ... the last game was not the first time a group of seniors outplayed (as a team) a group of younger players with more raw talent. And think about the difficulty in integrating players new to the program, it's not always easy for them to play as a team. Jabari was obviously new. Rodney sat out a year (yes?) thus practiced some with the team, but no game experience with us before this year. Andre was coming from a year off. The minutes for other players probably changed a lot from last year. Josh seemed to play less, Amile a lot more. So it was far from a familiar group. Still, it can be done - we've seen it done - but not often.

Bottom line, I do think they gave their all, but they just could not play well together on defense. The chemistry was just not there, and I'm not sure why. You know the old Coach K saying about players without positions? Is that just for offense? If not, I wonder if that's part of the problem ... that philosophy may only work in certain limited circumstances, and this was simply not one of them. You have to walk before you can run, and perhaps you have to already be pretty solid on defense before you can entertain notions of not having well-defined positions.

[oldnavy]

What frustrates me to no end, is that in a year where our defense was a GLARING weakness, where articles are being written in SI about teams adapting to rule changes by using zone defenses that traditionally are man to man, and where we have had numerous games where our starters were saddled with foul trouble attempting to play man to man... we didn't do anything different.

[jv001]

What frustrates me to no end, is that in a year where our defense was a GLARING weakness, where articles are being written in SI about teams adapting to rule changes by using zone defenses that traditionally are man to man, and where we have had numerous games where our starters were saddled with foul trouble attempting to play man to man... we didn't do anything different.

You and I are the only Duke fans that see a good zone defense being a weapon on defense. The zone helps out when the team gets in foul trouble, it helps stop dribble penetration and it makes the other team prepare for more than just Duke's man to man. Is it that Coach K can't teach the zone, stubborn about using the zone or a little of both. Teams used the zone more this year than any time I can remember. I'm hoping next year our HOF coach learns the principles of zone defense and gives our players another weapon. If Roy can coach the zone I would think Coach K can GoDuke!

[oldnavy]

You and I are the only Duke fans that see a good zone defense being a weapon on defense. The zone helps out when the team gets in foul trouble, it helps stop dribble penetration and it makes the other team prepare for more than just Duke's man to man. Is it that Coach K can't teach the zone, stubborn about using the zone or a little of both. Teams used the zone more this year than any time I can remember. I'm hoping next year our HOF coach learns the principles of zone defense and gives our players another weapon. If Roy can coach the zone I would think Coach K can GoDuke!

Your point about preparing for Duke is a good one. The book on Duke for the past several years is drive and penetrate into the lane. Mercer did just that. I had the distinct feeling that they were better prepared to play us than we were to play them...

[jv001]

Your point about preparing for Duke is a good one. The book on Duke for the past several years is drive and penetrate into the lane. Mercer did just that. I had the distinct feeling that they were better prepared to play us than we were to play them...

I had the very same thought watching the game yesterday. GoDuke!

[wsb3]

You and I are the only Duke fans that see a good zone defense being a weapon on defense. The zone helps out when the team gets in foul trouble, it helps stop dribble penetration and it makes the other team prepare for more than just Duke's man to man. Is it that Coach K can't teach the zone, stubborn about using the zone or a little of both. Teams used the zone more this year than any time I can remember. I'm hoping next year our HOF coach learns the principles of zone defense and gives our players another weapon. If Roy can coach the zone I would think Coach K can GoDuke!

Count me in that if man to man is not working trying some zone is not a bad idea. I have a library of Duke games & I am always surprised at the times in the 80's I see Coach K go to a zone for a few possessions. But as another poster stated he is stubborn. I am not bashing him but he as well as Dean Smith have been very stubborn coaches and it has cost them.

I think this team in particular and not just because they were not good man to man had the length to play not just some token zone but some really good zone. At the very least if your guards can't stop penetration please play softer man. I still have nightmares from Paulus trying to pick his man up at half court only to be blown by repeatedly.

I know he is a hall of fame coach and I love & appreciate all that he has done but I just don't think anyone can say he did a good job this year. The potential of this team was not reached.

On another note I did not notice this as much because I was probably so nervous but I have seen a lot of Facebook posts, and comments about how he seem to just sit and hold his head in his hands when things were going south. I don't recall him being up as much but I really wasn't focused on that. Thoughts? I still wonder about his health.

[KandG]

In fact, there WAS a major change to college basketball that was implemented starting with the 2009 season. It was an offensive rule change that ironically might have ended up affecting our defense given how we choose to play defense. Beginning in 2009, the 3-point arc was extended to 20'9" from the previous 19'9" that had been in place since the 1987 season.

My theory is a ridiculously simple one that I'm not sure I believe myself: The extra bit of court area our defense has had to cover since 2009 has caused our defensive rotations to suffer. That is, help defenders are coming from a little bit farther away than they had been prior to the 3-pt line extension, and therefore, sometimes help defenders arrive a little bit later than what they have to be in order to properly contest the offensive player, who is often someone that has driven into the lane.

This has been a great thread, spurred by the original excellent post, and I like the point above as well.

Note that while we can point to a decline since 2009, a defense that hovers in the top 20 is not horrible if you take into account some increased instability in the roster due to the increased number of one-and-done/two-and-done type players. But even taking into account many of the explanations offered (players out of position, rules changes, distracted coach, etc), that 114 ranking is a massive outlier. It's what you would expect from the 1995 or 1996 team, not a group with this level of talent, mismatched parts or not.

I really wonder if this year was just a perfect storm of all the factors mentioned, particularly the rules changes and K's personal loss. When you have a falloff this seismic, I just don't think you can point to one factor or one player and say things like "Coach K's finished", "so and so can't play defense", etc etc. Keep in mind last year's team largely had the same guards (along with Curry, no defensive stopper) and had Ryan and Mason instead of Jabari and Rodney. I don't think anyone would have expected two NBA lottery picks, no matter how inexperienced and defensively challenged, to step in and send the defense down this spiral. And that's not what happened -- it's not just on them, but on the whole thing crashing down somehow.

I know some here are bearish on the coaches, but I do think they're aware of what a dropoff this year was (even though people are latching on the "very good year" comment, K knows this was bad), and they'll take this as a cue to re-evaluate everything and reload. I also think K's international work this summer will bring dividends, because he'll be working with Tom Thibodeau, one of the absolute best at taking even the most defensively challenged players and turning them into a defensive unit no other team wants to play.

I'm also looking forward to the coaches using the players in more creative ways defensively, and having more two way players. Felt like we were making too many difficult choices this year (put in Andre for offense or Matt for defense, the Jabari offense-defense subs, etc), and it was too easy for defenses with simple ball movement or a ball screen to turn our defense into jello.

UPDATE: I am also with others who would like to see some experimentation with zone/matchup zone -- I'm on Coach K's side, but the one comment he made this year in a press conference where he said "we don't play zone" was the one time I winced at something he said. Going back to Thibodeau, he's one of the best in the NBA at bending the NBA's defensive 3 second rule in having his players protect the paint and zone up sides of the floor. I hope K takes something from him in this regard.