Top 5 movies of Summer 2014

[JasonEvans]

Olympic - there is zero doubt (zero) in my mind that HTTYD2 will be in the top 5. Zero. Only kids movie (really) and huge buzz from kids. Don't let that movie make your nervous.

I agree. So long as it is not a really lousy film, it is going to make at least $270 million and probably much more than that.

-Jason "I think Oly has a truly excellent shot at going 5-for-5. I think the odds of Spidey holding off Godzilla are close to zero... heck, I am starting to think that Godzilla will top Cap 2" Evans

[DU82]

I agree. So long as it is not a really lousy film, it is going to make at least $270 million and probably much more than that.

-Jason "I think Oly has a truly excellent shot at going 5-for-5. I think the odds of Spidey holding off Godzilla are close to zero... heck, I am starting to think that Godzilla will top Cap 2" Evans

The question is not whether Spidey holds off Godzilla, but if it beats the X-Men. My bet's still on Spidey, which would mean that I'd win. :-)

Regarding children's movies, what is Maleficent considered? Is it a possibility to get the kid's repeat business, or is that solely for animated films?

[Duvall]

Anyway, Jason - any review planned for the seventh installment of Sniktbub and Pals?

[NashvilleDevil]

New trailer out for my long shot pick for the top 5. Have to say this looks like a fun movie.

[CameronBornAndBred]

New trailer out for my long shot pick for the top 5. Have to say this looks like a fun movie.

With an August release, it better have the best opening weekend ever.
Will movie goers hit a Marvel wall? Cap2, Spidey, X-Men, and Guardians, talk about saturating the market.

[JasonEvans]

With an August release, it better have the best opening weekend ever.
Will movie goers hit a Marvel wall? Cap2, Spidey, X-Men, and Guardians, talk about saturating the market.

Well, I dunno about the "best opening ever" but the history on August releases is not great. Only one August release in history has made $230 million, which seems to be about the level most of us think will need to be reached to be in the Top 5. Of course, part of that is inflation as some of the movies I am about to list would easily pass $250 mil in present day dollars if we adjust for inflation.

1. The Sixth Sense (8/6/99) - $293.5 mil on a $26.8 mil opening... talk about word of mouth powering a film for a big boxoffice run!!
2. Signs (8/2/02) - $227.9 mil on a $60.1 mil opening... remember when M Night wasn't boxoffice poison?
3. Bourne Ultimatum (8/3/07) - $227.4 mil on a $69.2 mil opening
4. Rush Hour 2 (8/3/01) - $226.1 mil on a $67.4 mil opening
5. The Fugitive (8/6/93) - $183.8 mil on a $23.7 mil opening
6. Rise of the Planet of the Apes (8/5/11) - $176.7 mil on a $54.8 mil opening
7. The Help (8/10/11) - $169.7 mil on a $26 mil opening
8. We're The Millers (8/7/13) - $150.3 mil on a $26.4 mil opening

That's the list of the top August releases.

But, Guardians opens on August 1 and there have been some big movies in late(ish) July too. If we look at the last weekend of July as being almost the same as an August 1 release, then we can add the following films to the list.

Austin Powers in Goldmember (7/26/02) - $213.3 mil on a $73 mil opening
The Simpsons Movie (7/27/07) - $183.1 mil on a $74 mil opening
Planet of the Apes (Marky Mark edition) (7/27/01) - $180 mil on a $68.5 mil opening
Air Force One (7/25/97) - $172.9 mil on a $37.1 mil opening

Still, it is clear that late-July and August movies face a real uphill climb. I won't be all that surprised if Guardians sets a new August opening weekend record (Bourne Ultimatum's $69.2 is the current leader) but even with an opening in the $70 mil range, getting to $225+ million is going to be a challenge. Lots of kids go back to school by the second week of August and mid-week numbers tend to really dry up.

Still, the trailers look very solid and (despite the Marvel name) this does not feel like just another superhero movie. If you think of it as an outer space adventure like Star Trek or Star Wars then there is not much competition this summer. Jupiter Ascending is the only other one of those on tap for this summer... though it you expand the genre to include all sci-fi (non-comic book hero movies) then you add Transformers, Dawn of the Apes, Edge of Tomorrow, and perhaps even Earth to Echo.

Bottom line -- Guardians is probably still a longshot. I suspect Marvel and Disney will be quite pleased if it makes $175 mil or more at the domestic boxoffice. That would be a very nice success for a non-sequel without big stars.

-Jason "I also want to let Duvall and all the other fans of my reviews (all 3 of you) know that I am seeing XMDOFP tonight and will try to post a review in the next 24-36 hours" Evans

[davekay1971]

The scene in the Guardians of the Galaxy trailer where Rocket Raccoon pulls down the crotch of his pants in mid-strut, for some reason, amused me more than about anything else I've seen in a trailer recently (including the Neighbors trailers). I hope that Bradley Cooper absolutely nails the vocals for Rocket. That could easily be one of the weirdest best characters in recent memory.

[JasonEvans]

Here are some recent comparison numbers of Thursday late-night boxoffice:

Catching Fire - $25.3 mil
Man of Steel - $21 mil
Iron Man 3 - $15.6 mil
Cap 2 - $10.2 mil
Godzilla - $9.3 mil
Hobbit 2 - $8.8 mil
Spidey 2 - $8.7 mil
X-MenOFP - $8.1 mil
Thor 2 - $7.1 mil
Pacific Rim - $3.6 mil

This is not a complete list, obviously, but shows some similar kind of films all released in the past year (reducing the impact of ticket price inflation on the numbers).

Just got the Thursday late night numbers for X-Men: DOFP and they came in at $8.1 million (I added it to the above list). Hollywood expects this flick to make well over $100 million over the 4-day Memorial Day weekend. This is far and away the best Thursday late opening in X-Men history. X3 did $5.9 mil from its Thursday late night showings and First Class made $3.4 million.

There are many indications this will be a big hit. As I noted in my review, it is a quality flick and will generate good word of mouth. Flixster -- which asks users, "Do you want to see this?" before movies are released -- says this film has the highest "want to see" ratings of any movie in 2014. Fandango said yesterday that 90% of its advance weekend ticket sales are people buying tickets to XMOFP.

The other interesting thing to see will be how much Godzilla holds up in its second weekend of release. The fact that it is a holiday weekend should really help. Also, Godzilla negotiated a sweet deal with IMAX which will mean that most IMAX screens across the country will still be showing Godzilla this week and won't show X-Men. 3D and IMAX premiums should continue to boost Godzilla's boxoffice take.

-Jason "Spidey continues to slow -- more on that in a moment" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I am starting to think Spidey 2 may not even be #6 for the summer. Ugh...

As I have mentioned many times in the past, the best way to compare movies released at different times is to look at where they are through comparable numbers of days. This is especially useful if they are released on the same day of the week (which has been the case with all the major pictures this year). It gets skewed when something comes out on a Wednesday, but that has not happened yet this summer.

The most recent numbers we have are boxoffice through Wednesday of this week. That was Spidey's 20th day of release. It was Godzilla's xx day of release and was Cap 2s 48th day.

Through 20 days each, Spidey 2 is at $176.0 million. Cap 2 was at $207.0 mil after its 20th day, a difference of $31 million. That is a giant gulf that will continue to widen with each day (Spidey was anywhere from $1 mil to $700k behind Cap 2 each day of the week this past week).

Godzilla has been out for 6 days and it currently stands at $112.7 mil. Spidey was at $107.1 mil after 6 days of release. With the long Memorial Day weekend likely to boost Godzilla's numbers, it is very hard to see when or how Spidey will make up the rapidly increasing gap it faces compared to Godzilla.

I am really starting to think that Spidey is going to finish with something like $210-$220 million, which just ain't going to be enough to make the top 5 unless something crazy happens.

--Jason "I need to look back over the history of our contests, but I can't ever recall a movie that was this much of a sure thing (90+% of us picked it for the Top 5) failing to make the Top 5" Evans

[JasonEvans]

--Jason "I need to look back over the history of our contests, but I can't ever recall a movie that was this much of a sure thing (90+% of us picked it for the Top 5) failing to make the Top 5" Evans

Ok, you know me... I obsess over this stuff

This year, 94% of us picked Spidey and it is going to miss the top 5. That would appear to be the biggest mistaken pick in our history. I looked at the past 4 years and here is what I found...

In the summer of 2009, the biggest miss was Wolverine. 54% of us picked it and it came in 7th.

2010 was the year with a couple big misses. Shrek Forever After was picked by almost 53% of us and Robin Hood had the support of 43% of the folks in our contest. Also intriguing when looking back on that year is that only 3 people (5% of voters) were smart enough to trust Christopher Nolan and vote for Inception. I am proud to say I was one of them and it easily made the top 5, earning $292 million.

The summer of 2011 was the year a bunch of us went 5-for-5 so there were no big surprises. Kung Fu Panda 2, selected by 44% of us, was the biggest miss.

In 2012, the biggest miss was Men in Black 3, which 66% of us supported in the vote.

In the summer of 2013, we had a pretty big miss in Star Trek:Into Darkness. It was picked by 79% of us and came in 6th place. I don't think most folks considered it a flop or a disappointment though as it made close to $230 million. It was just bigfooted by Fast/Furious 6.

-Jason "I would have probably put big money on Spidey 2 making at least $230 million... I was wrong!" Evans

[Udaman]

Yep. And anyone who didn't pick X-Men is out. It's great and the theater was packed. I will definitely see it again. It's going to finish 1 or 2 overall.

[NashvilleDevil]

Godzilla is looking at $38.5 million this weekend for a two week total of $156 million. Don't know what that means for our contest but that's a significant drop.

[Olympic Fan]

Godzilla is looking at $38.5 million this weekend for a two week total of $156 million. Don't know what that means for our contest but that's a significant drop.

Agreed. Godzilla had a big drop (although the two week total I'm seeing is $157.6 million). Either way, that's $10 million more than Spidey did in its first two weeks ($146.2). And after this weekend, the race should be Spidey at $186 million and the King of Monsters at $157 in less than half as many weeks.

For the contest, looking very much like X-Men and Cap'n America will be ahead of Godzilla and Spidey in that order (among films released). The question is whether there will be one, two, three movies that can bump and of those four down. I'm confident there will be at least one (Transformers) and maybe two (How to Train Your Dragon 2). Will there be a third to top $200 million and make a run?

[NashvilleDevil]

1. Captain America 2 $253,988,000
2. Amazing Spider-Man 2 $187,100,000
3. Godzilla $156,793,000
4. Rio 2 $122,348,000
5. Neighbors $116,908,000
6. X-Men $111,000,000

Maleficent and A Million Ways to Die in the West open this weekend. I figure X-Men will pass or be be close to passing Godzilla for 3rd place after this weekend. I still do not see a movie that will crack $300 million this summer which would be the first time since 2001 that happened.

[Olympic Fan]

Not sure this belongs here, but I ran across a couple of box office items that I thought were interesting:

-- I know our contest is for domestic box office only, but I occasionally check the international numbers too. I saw an item where Disney's Frozen just moved into the all-time world-wide top five with $1.219 billion -- trailing only Avatar, Titanic, The Avengers and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II. Apparently, Frozen is a mega-hit this spring in Japan, closing in on $194 million there.

-- Obviously, all the moves at or near the top are recent. I found a listing of the top 10 all-time domestic box office products adjusted for inflation. It's very eye-opening: 1. Gone with the Wind; 2. Star Wars; 3. Sound of Music; 4. ET; 5. Titanic; 6. 10 Commandments; 7. Jays; 8. Doctor Zivago; 9. The Exorcist; 10. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs.

-- I was finishing reading Mark Harris' book "Five Came Back" -- an excellent account of the five major directors who left Hollywood to serve in World War II and how that impacted their work (a must read for any serious film buff). I thought one of the interesting things in the book was detailing the efforts of Frank Capra to get Liberty Films off the ground after the war. He had commitments from two more vet-directors -- George Stevens and William Wyler. That would have been a powerhouse trio. But Wyler owed Sam Goldwyn one more film from his pre-war contract. He talked Goldwyn into buying the story "The Best Years of Our Lives." While Liberty was producing "It's a Wonderful Life", Wyler was churning out the biggest post-war blockbuster of all -- for another studio. What I didn't realize was that "Best Years' would be the second-highest grossing film in Hollywood history up to that point -- behind only GWTW. Had Wyler been able to make it for Liberty, that independent studio would have been a big success. Instead, it died after two movies ... at least one of them was "What a Wonderful Life."

-- Harris' book also ties into my first item -- the international box office. He goes in depth as to why the major studios were so reluctant to do any films that were critical of Hitler or the Nazis in the pre-war era -- they were trying to product their European box office. Most the good early anti-Hitler films were done by poverty row studios. Even as late as November, 1941, Wyler was fighting with Sam Goldwyn about the unflattering treatment of a Nazi flier in Mrs. Miniver -- Wyler said Goldwyn called him on Dec. 8 and dropped his objections to the negative depiction.

-- Finally, I came across a great bit of box office trivia -- what movie paid the highest return on its investment? (figure by percentage of profit compared to cost). I'll post the answer tomorrow, if anybody's interested.

[NashvilleDevil]

Not sure this belongs here, but I ran across a couple of box office items that I thought were interesting:

-- I know our contest is for domestic box office only, but I occasionally check the international numbers too. I saw an item where Disney's Frozen just moved into the all-time world-wide top five with $1.219 billion -- trailing only Avatar, Titanic, The Avengers and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II. Apparently, Frozen is a mega-hit this spring in Japan, closing in on $194 million there.

-- Obviously, all the moves at or near the top are recent. I found a listing of the top 10 all-time domestic box office products adjusted for inflation. It's very eye-opening: 1. Gone with the Wind; 2. Star Wars; 3. Sound of Music; 4. ET; 5. Titanic; 6. 10 Commandments; 7. Jays; 8. Doctor Zivago; 9. The Exorcist; 10. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs.

-- I was finishing reading Mark Harris' book "Five Came Back" -- an excellent account of the five major directors who left Hollywood to serve in World War II and how that impacted their work (a must read for any serious film buff). I thought one of the interesting things in the book was detailing the efforts of Frank Capra to get Liberty Films off the ground after the war. He had commitments from two more vet-directors -- George Stevens and William Wyler. That would have been a powerhouse trio. But Wyler owed Sam Goldwyn one more film from his pre-war contract. He talked Goldwyn into buying the story "The Best Years of Our Lives." While Liberty was producing "It's a Wonderful Life", Wyler was churning out the biggest post-war blockbuster of all -- for another studio. What I didn't realize was that "Best Years' would be the second-highest grossing film in Hollywood history up to that point -- behind only GWTW. Had Wyler been able to make it for Liberty, that independent studio would have been a big success. Instead, it died after two movies ... at least one of them was "What a Wonderful Life."

-- Harris' book also ties into my first item -- the international box office. He goes in depth as to why the major studios were so reluctant to do any films that were critical of Hitler or the Nazis in the pre-war era -- they were trying to product their European box office. Most the good early anti-Hitler films were done by poverty row studios. Even as late as November, 1941, Wyler was fighting with Sam Goldwyn about the unflattering treatment of a Nazi flier in Mrs. Miniver -- Wyler said Goldwyn called him on Dec. 8 and dropped his objections to the negative depiction.

-- Finally, I came across a great bit of box office trivia -- what movie paid the highest return on its investment? (figure by percentage of profit compared to cost). I'll post the answer tomorrow, if anybody's interested.

Easy Rider?

[tbyers11]

-- Finally, I came across a great bit of box office trivia -- what movie paid the highest return on its investment? (figure by percentage of profit compared to cost). I'll post the answer tomorrow, if anybody's interested.

Blair Witch Project?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Blair Witch Project?

That would be my guess too. Pennies to hundreds of dollars. Movie equivalent of inventing the pet rock.

[JasonEvans]

That would be my guess too. Pennies to hundreds of dollars. Movie equivalent of inventing the pet rock.

Blair Witch budget numbers are all over the place. I've seen everything from $20,000 to $750,000. But, its boxoffice take is known -- $248 million. That's a truly absurd ROI. The pity is that the filmmakers didn't get to enjoy most of it. They sold the rights to the film to Artisan Pictures for a million dollars. While I am sure they were doing cartwheels over that million, Artisan reaped most of the really large rewards from the film. Interestingly, neither the actors nor the filmmakers behind Blair Witch have gone on to have much success since they caught lightning in a bottle. The most successful of them is actor Joshua Leonard who has carved out a decent, but not famous, career of consistent but small roles in movies and TV.

-Jason "Heather Donahue, the female star of the film and the iconic image of it for her sniffling soliloquy to the camera, now writes books about growing medical marijuana" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

Blair Witch is a great guess -- it's got to be one of the top 5 movies ever in terms of ROI (return on investment).

But as Jason notes, the numbers for its cost are all over the place -- the sources I've seen suggest that it cost between $600,000 and $1 million. Even at the high end, it's ROI is ridiculous.

I think the undisputed champion in this category is 2009's Paranormal Activity -- made for just $15,000, it has a $196 million domestic gross.

Other champions in this category include the original Mad Max ($200,000 cost; $99.75 million profit - domestic gross only), the original George Romero Night of the Living Dead ($114,000 cost; $30 million profit), and such films as the original Halloween, Kevin Smith's Clerks ($27,000 cost; $3.15 million profit) and the original Rocky ($1 million budget; $225 million domestic gross).

But my favorite is the smallest budget ever to crack a million in domestic gross -- Robert Rodriguez's El Mariachi -- made for $7,000 and made $2.05 million in domestic US gross (not bad for a Spanish language film!).

Guys like George Miller (Mad Max), Romero, Kevin Smith, John Carpenter (Halloween; not unknown -- he did Dark Star and Assault on Precinct 13 before Halloween) and Rodriguez all became superstar directors after starting with extreme low-budget (usually self-financed) films .. Can't say that Daniel Myrick or Eduardo Sanchez -- who co-directed Blair Witch -- have done any A-list movies.