Captain America 2: The Winter Soldier
Rio 2
Amazing Spider-Man 2
Godzilla
X-men: Days of Future Past
Million Ways to Die in the West
Maleficent
Edge of Tomorrow
How To Train Your Dragon 2
22 Jump Street
Transformers: Age of Extinction
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Jupiter Ascending
Guardians of the Galaxy
Other (list in post)
Interesting. I found all the trailers hilarious, laugh-out-loud funny. Then again, I'm the target audience (34 y/o male).
That said, I wonder if there's a bigger name in comedy right now than Seth Rogen. He's had huge success in animated films (Kung Fu Panda, Monsters vs Aliens, Horton Hears a Who), but also as a comedy lead.
Courtesy of Boxofficemojo, if we exclude animated movies, here are the adjusted domestic box office numbers of his movies:
Knocked Up - $172mm
SuperBad - $140mm
40 y/o Virgin - $136mm
This is the End - $99mm
Green Hornet - $98mm
Pineapple Express - $97mm
He also has a couple of duds in Guilt Trip, Zack and Miri, and Observe & Report. I'm not counting Funny People (which I view as an Adam Sandler flop), You Me & Dupree (which did well, but he had a small part in) and a couple of Indie flicks.
So, who beats him? Will Ferrell? Vince Vaughn? Owen Wilson? Ben Stiller?
I love Stiller, but his star seems to be fading a little after the Fockers series. He's certainly a bigger name historically, but I'm talking about "What have you done for me lately?"
With Wedding Crashers, Old School, and Dodgeball far behind him, "The Internship", "The Dillemna", "The Watch", and "Delivery Man" were not big hits for Vaughn.
Anchorman 2 did well for Ferrell, but a lot of his hits are older now, too, and I'm not sure his more recent stuff is any better than Rogen's.
Who else? Jonah Hill (often in the same movies)? Jason Segel (often in the same movies, more animated stuff)? The Hangover series has the two highest box office comedies, but that's an ensemble cast. Seth MacFarlane is up and coming, and Ted did well, but I'm not that high on a million ways...
Adam Sandler is one of the all time greats, but I don't know if he still has the star power...
Opening this weekend is The Other Woman. It looks like a Gringo version of Chasing Papi, with Kate Upton instead of Sofia Vergara.
It shouldn't make much of a dent in the box office and is rightfully a non-factor in this poll. But I bring it up to ask a question: will it draw a record number of men who *pretend* to reluctantly go along with their wives and girlfriends?
There have been swimsuit models in movies before -- Brooklyn Decker, Cindy Crawford, Kathy Ireland -- but those movies already had a reason for guys to see it (Adam Sandler, action, football). In other words, men could lie. But this is a straight-up chick flick with Kate Upton joining Leslie Mann and the remaining organic fragments of Cameron Diaz. Men have never faced this challenge before. Even Chasing Papi was a tiny film that almost no one saw in the theater; it took on an afterlife from cable. The Other Woman has a studio budget that makes it more, uh, front-loaded.
Last summer I felt good about my pick:
Lone Ranger
Oops.
Man, that IS tough. And that doesn't include guys like the Wayans brothers, Chris Tucker, Martin Lawrence, and Dave Chapelle, who all have projects coming out in the near future.
Steve Carell is certainly making an argument too.
The problem I have with Seth as king of comedy is that I don't think he can be THE guy in a film and carry it. Most of his biggest successes he's either a secondary character or has a costar bigger than he is.
Last edited by bjornolf; 04-27-2014 at 10:14 PM.
Ok, Evans, can we get your updated opinion on where Cap2 will fall? Does it have a top 5 finish wrapped up, like I claimed?
As of last weekend, it stands at approximately $225mm. So, after 4 weekends, it's already beaten your estimate by 5%. Amazing Spider Man 2 drops this weekend, and will surely siphon off a lot of the audience. Word of mouth is still strong, though. Can it get to $240mm? That would have been enough last summer.
Seth Rogen can't be kind of comedy because he hasn't been notably funny since his supporting role in 40 Year Old Virgin. He has, however, been in some fabulously funny movies with much more talented actors. Of the Seth Rogen movies I've seen, here are the funniest performers in the movie...including Seth.
Knocked Up: Not very funny at any point, really, and Seth was very unfunny. Funniest performers in the movie: Leslie Mann and Ken Jeong
Pineapple Express: James Franco and Danny McBride
40 Year Old Virgin: Seth Rogen, Steve Carrell, and Jane Lynch
Superbad: McLovin'
So, of his movies that I've seen, Rogen gives one of the funniest performances in 1 out of 4. I haven't seen This is the End (yet) or Neighbors (which I think we'll see in theater because it looks really funny), but my understanding is that Rogen gets outshone in both movies by his costars. I think he's a guy that can be good in a supporting performance, but not funny enough to carry a vehicle without alot of help.
Interstingly, I think we're at a point right now where the people with the best comedic timing are the ladies (Leslie Mann, Melissa McCarthy, Kristin Wiig) and guys who aren't tagged as purely comedic actors - like Franco.
Note: The Guardians of the Galaxy trailer looks like it may take the cake as the funniest movie this summer...with the side benefit of featuring the most badass raccoon in movie history.
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
For the record, last summer's top 5 (plus the next closest contender) was...
- Iron Man 3 - $409 mil
- Despicable Me 2 - $368 mil
- Man of Steel - $291 mil
- Monsters U - $268 mil
- Fast & Fur 6 - $238 mil
- Star Trek Into Dark - $228 mil
So, Cap 2 (currently $224.9 mil) is pretty much right at the spot our #6 film was last year. But, it has plenty more room to go. Yes, ASM2 will siphon some audience next weekend but I also bet that some ASM2 sell outs spill over into Cap 2 repeat or first time viewers. Cap 2 only fell off 37% from last weekend, indicating it still has some legs. I expect it to end up with something north of $250 mil in total boxoffice, probably close to $260 mil. I have a hard time thinking that won't be enough to make our top 5.
As an aside, the marketing for Godzilla is going great. I think I mentioned that I was really torn on that one and came darn close to voting for it. A true "monster movie" faces an uphill climb to get all the way to $240+ million to be in our top 5, but Godzilla is going to have a chance I suspect.
-Jason "at this point in the summer, nothing is a lock" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Ruh Roh!
Amazing Spider Man 2 with a $92 million weekend, a tomato meter floating in the 50s (low compared to most of the well-performing superhero fare of late), and, more concerning, a B+ cinemascore. Boxofficemojo is projecting a $230 million domestic gross after this weekend's haul. While it's hard to imagine a $90+ million opening not making the top 5, $230 million would put it in the at-risk range (with last summer's Star Trek: Into Self-Contradictory Logic missing the top 5 at $228 million).
You know what I can't figure out? Why I voted for Jupiter Ascending. Was it an abiding belief in the Wachowski siblings? A protest vote against the slew of sequals I will never watch? A vote that was intended for Guardians of the Galaxy?
This is going to bother me all summer long. I do hope that the movie is good, though. I am unlikely to see anything else on the list, so it is my only hope for a summer evening at the cinema.
Through their first 6 days of release (Fri-Wed), ASM 2 is getting beaten pretty soundly by Cap 2. Cap 2 was at $113 mil after 6 days, ASM 2 is at $107 million.
There is little doubt at this point that Cap 2 will finish ahead of Spidey and it is really starting to look like Spidey may only make about $225-235 million, which could put it in real danger of missing the Top 5. I am starting to think that Godzilla could be a strong contender to beat it.
We also appear to have our first raunchy comedy breakout hit of the summer. Neighbors did $2.6 mil from late night Thursday showings and appears to be on its way to about a $40+ mil opening weekend. A movie like this, which should generate huge word of mouth buzz, is not nearly as front-loaded as an action flick so comparing that $40 mil start to the $90+ mil of the superhero movies is sorta meaningless at this point. By comparison, in 2012 Ted made $54 mil its opening weekend and went on to gross $218 million. That same summer, Men In Black 3 also made $54 mil its opening weekend but it ended the summer with just $179 mil in total boxoffice.
Lastly, early tracking is indicating that X-Men Days of Future Past is going to be really big. Hollywood is expecting it to earn around $125 million over the Memorial Day weekend. It if does that, $250+ mil is a lock and it will be in our Top 5, for sure.
-Jason "watch to see how much Spidey drops this weekend -- if it can do more than $40 mil, that will be good but if it is closer to $35 mil, it will likely struggle to make more than maybe $210 or $220 million" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?