Top 5 movies of Summer 2014

[BD80]

Really?

The trailer for Neighbors makes it look awful to me ... but maybe because I'm an old fart and don't find the [premise that a fraternity moves next store to a normal couple and ruins their life to be a bit funny.

Come on ... various instances of Seth Rogan being launched around like a crash-test dummy ... that there's funny.

[Olympic Fan]

Come on ... various instances of Seth Rogan being launched around like a crash-test dummy ... that there's funny.

Put is this way ... Seth Rogan has never made me laugh before ... not once.

[Blue in the Face]

Put is this way ... Seth Rogan has never made me laugh before ... not once.

Given the success of some of his films, doesn't this simply suggest that the preview looking awful to you isn't much of an indication of how successful his latest film might be?

[Reisen]

Really?

The trailer for Neighbors makes it look awful to me ... but maybe because I'm an old fart and don't find the [premise that a fraternity moves next store to a normal couple and ruins their life to be a bit funny.

Interesting. I found all the trailers hilarious, laugh-out-loud funny. Then again, I'm the target audience (34 y/o male).

That said, I wonder if there's a bigger name in comedy right now than Seth Rogen. He's had huge success in animated films (Kung Fu Panda, Monsters vs Aliens, Horton Hears a Who), but also as a comedy lead.

Courtesy of Boxofficemojo, if we exclude animated movies, here are the adjusted domestic box office numbers of his movies:

Knocked Up - $172mm
SuperBad - $140mm
40 y/o Virgin - $136mm
This is the End - $99mm
Green Hornet - $98mm
Pineapple Express - $97mm

He also has a couple of duds in Guilt Trip, Zack and Miri, and Observe & Report. I'm not counting Funny People (which I view as an Adam Sandler flop), You Me & Dupree (which did well, but he had a small part in) and a couple of Indie flicks.

So, who beats him? Will Ferrell? Vince Vaughn? Owen Wilson? Ben Stiller?

I love Stiller, but his star seems to be fading a little after the Fockers series. He's certainly a bigger name historically, but I'm talking about "What have you done for me lately?"

With Wedding Crashers, Old School, and Dodgeball far behind him, "The Internship", "The Dillemna", "The Watch", and "Delivery Man" were not big hits for Vaughn.

Anchorman 2 did well for Ferrell, but a lot of his hits are older now, too, and I'm not sure his more recent stuff is any better than Rogen's.

Who else? Jonah Hill (often in the same movies)? Jason Segel (often in the same movies, more animated stuff)? The Hangover series has the two highest box office comedies, but that's an ensemble cast. Seth MacFarlane is up and coming, and Ted did well, but I'm not that high on a million ways...

Adam Sandler is one of the all time greats, but I don't know if he still has the star power...

[brevity]

Opening this weekend is The Other Woman. It looks like a Gringo version of Chasing Papi, with Kate Upton instead of Sofia Vergara.

It shouldn't make much of a dent in the box office and is rightfully a non-factor in this poll. But I bring it up to ask a question: will it draw a record number of men who *pretend* to reluctantly go along with their wives and girlfriends?

There have been swimsuit models in movies before -- Brooklyn Decker, Cindy Crawford, Kathy Ireland -- but those movies already had a reason for guys to see it (Adam Sandler, action, football). In other words, men could lie. But this is a straight-up chick flick with Kate Upton joining Leslie Mann and the remaining organic fragments of Cameron Diaz. Men have never faced this challenge before. Even Chasing Papi was a tiny film that almost no one saw in the theater; it took on an afterlife from cable. The Other Woman has a studio budget that makes it more, uh, front-loaded.

[gurufrisbee]

Last summer I felt good about my pick:

Lone Ranger

Oops.

[BD80]

Last summer I felt good about my pick:

Lone Ranger

Oops.

I watched it. For free.

I felt cheated.

[YmoBeThere]

Adam Sandler is one of the all time greats, but I don't know if he still has the star power...

My word...I'm not sure what to make of this.

[bjornolf]

Interesting. I found all the trailers hilarious, laugh-out-loud funny. Then again, I'm the target audience (34 y/o male).

That said, I wonder if there's a bigger name in comedy right now than Seth Rogen. He's had huge success in animated films (Kung Fu Panda, Monsters vs Aliens, Horton Hears a Who), but also as a comedy lead.

Courtesy of Boxofficemojo, if we exclude animated movies, here are the adjusted domestic box office numbers of his movies:

Knocked Up - $172mm
SuperBad - $140mm
40 y/o Virgin - $136mm
This is the End - $99mm
Green Hornet - $98mm
Pineapple Express - $97mm

He also has a couple of duds in Guilt Trip, Zack and Miri, and Observe & Report. I'm not counting Funny People (which I view as an Adam Sandler flop), You Me & Dupree (which did well, but he had a small part in) and a couple of Indie flicks.

So, who beats him? Will Ferrell? Vince Vaughn? Owen Wilson? Ben Stiller?

I love Stiller, but his star seems to be fading a little after the Fockers series. He's certainly a bigger name historically, but I'm talking about "What have you done for me lately?"

With Wedding Crashers, Old School, and Dodgeball far behind him, "The Internship", "The Dillemna", "The Watch", and "Delivery Man" were not big hits for Vaughn.

Anchorman 2 did well for Ferrell, but a lot of his hits are older now, too, and I'm not sure his more recent stuff is any better than Rogen's.

Who else? Jonah Hill (often in the same movies)? Jason Segel (often in the same movies, more animated stuff)? The Hangover series has the two highest box office comedies, but that's an ensemble cast. Seth MacFarlane is up and coming, and Ted did well, but I'm not that high on a million ways...

Adam Sandler is one of the all time greats, but I don't know if he still has the star power...

Man, that IS tough. And that doesn't include guys like the Wayans brothers, Chris Tucker, Martin Lawrence, and Dave Chapelle, who all have projects coming out in the near future.

Steve Carell is certainly making an argument too.

The problem I have with Seth as king of comedy is that I don't think he can be THE guy in a film and carry it. Most of his biggest successes he's either a secondary character or has a costar bigger than he is.

[Reisen]

Captain America 2 - The original made $176.6 million in a summer crowded with comic book superhero movies. That $176 is a big number when you consider that Cap came out in late July, when blockbuster fatigue had set in. It is also harder for films to have strong legs into August and September because everyone gets out of moviegoing mode later in the summer. I think that $176 in late July is the same as a May film making about $210-220 mill. So, props to Cap for the success of the original. But, Cap 2 is not a May movie. It is being released in April, a full month earlier than usual for a film like this. We have to wonder a bit if audiences will be ready for a summer blockbuster in spring. Kids won’t be out of school yet, so don’t expect Cap 2 to post big mid-week numbers. We don’t have much of an April blockbuster track record, but I am tempted to say that it will likely be about the same as being released in late July. So, what else does Cap 2 have going for it? He biggest thing is the so-called Avengers Halo Effect that all Avengers-related films have benefited from since Avengers was such a huge hit. Iron Man 3 made 31% more than Iron Man 2 ($409 mil vs $312 mil), Thor 2 made about 14% more than Thor ($206 mil vs $182 mil). If Cap does somewhere in between those two, like a 22% increase, it will make $215 million. Will that be good enough for the Top 5? I dunno... it would be close but maybe not quite.

Friends that have seen it all raved about it. Looks like we have our first entry into the top 5 locked up.

Its not even the first weekend, and its over

Ok, Evans, can we get your updated opinion on where Cap2 will fall? Does it have a top 5 finish wrapped up, like I claimed?

As of last weekend, it stands at approximately $225mm. So, after 4 weekends, it's already beaten your estimate by 5%. Amazing Spider Man 2 drops this weekend, and will surely siphon off a lot of the audience. Word of mouth is still strong, though. Can it get to $240mm? That would have been enough last summer.

[davekay1971]

Man, that IS tough. And that doesn't include guys like the Wayans brothers, Chris Tucker, Martin Lawrence, and Dave Chapelle, who all have projects coming out in the near future.

Steve Carell is certainly making an argument too.

The problem I have with Seth as king of comedy is that I don't think he can be THE guy in a film and carry it. Most of his biggest successes he's either a secondary character or has a costar bigger than he is.

Seth Rogen can't be kind of comedy because he hasn't been notably funny since his supporting role in 40 Year Old Virgin. He has, however, been in some fabulously funny movies with much more talented actors. Of the Seth Rogen movies I've seen, here are the funniest performers in the movie...including Seth.

Knocked Up: Not very funny at any point, really, and Seth was very unfunny. Funniest performers in the movie: Leslie Mann and Ken Jeong

Pineapple Express: James Franco and Danny McBride

40 Year Old Virgin: Seth Rogen, Steve Carrell, and Jane Lynch

Superbad: McLovin'

So, of his movies that I've seen, Rogen gives one of the funniest performances in 1 out of 4. I haven't seen This is the End (yet) or Neighbors (which I think we'll see in theater because it looks really funny), but my understanding is that Rogen gets outshone in both movies by his costars. I think he's a guy that can be good in a supporting performance, but not funny enough to carry a vehicle without alot of help.

Interstingly, I think we're at a point right now where the people with the best comedic timing are the ladies (Leslie Mann, Melissa McCarthy, Kristin Wiig) and guys who aren't tagged as purely comedic actors - like Franco.

Note: The Guardians of the Galaxy trailer looks like it may take the cake as the funniest movie this summer...with the side benefit of featuring the most badass raccoon in movie history.

[JasonEvans]

...with the side benefit of featuring the most badass raccoon in movie history.

Well, his competition is not exactly strong.


Meeko from Pocahontas


RJ from Over The Hedge


Joey from Dr Doolittle 2

[JasonEvans]

Ok, Evans, can we get your updated opinion on where Cap2 will fall? Does it have a top 5 finish wrapped up, like I claimed?

As of last weekend, it stands at approximately $225mm. So, after 4 weekends, it's already beaten your estimate by 5%. Amazing Spider Man 2 drops this weekend, and will surely siphon off a lot of the audience. Word of mouth is still strong, though. Can it get to $240mm? That would have been enough last summer.

For the record, last summer's top 5 (plus the next closest contender) was...

1. Iron Man 3 - $409 mil
2. Despicable Me 2 - $368 mil
3. Man of Steel - $291 mil
4. Monsters U - $268 mil
5. Fast & Fur 6 - $238 mil
6. Star Trek Into Dark - $228 mil

So, Cap 2 (currently $224.9 mil) is pretty much right at the spot our #6 film was last year. But, it has plenty more room to go. Yes, ASM2 will siphon some audience next weekend but I also bet that some ASM2 sell outs spill over into Cap 2 repeat or first time viewers. Cap 2 only fell off 37% from last weekend, indicating it still has some legs. I expect it to end up with something north of $250 mil in total boxoffice, probably close to $260 mil. I have a hard time thinking that won't be enough to make our top 5.

As an aside, the marketing for Godzilla is going great. I think I mentioned that I was really torn on that one and came darn close to voting for it. A true "monster movie" faces an uphill climb to get all the way to $240+ million to be in our top 5, but Godzilla is going to have a chance I suspect.

-Jason "at this point in the summer, nothing is a lock" Evans

[davekay1971]

Ruh Roh!

Amazing Spider Man 2 with a $92 million weekend, a tomato meter floating in the 50s (low compared to most of the well-performing superhero fare of late), and, more concerning, a B+ cinemascore. Boxofficemojo is projecting a $230 million domestic gross after this weekend's haul. While it's hard to imagine a $90+ million opening not making the top 5, $230 million would put it in the at-risk range (with last summer's Star Trek: Into Self-Contradictory Logic missing the top 5 at $228 million).

[cato]

You know what I can't figure out? Why I voted for Jupiter Ascending. Was it an abiding belief in the Wachowski siblings? A protest vote against the slew of sequals I will never watch? A vote that was intended for Guardians of the Galaxy?

This is going to bother me all summer long. I do hope that the movie is good, though. I am unlikely to see anything else on the list, so it is my only hope for a summer evening at the cinema.

[YmoBeThere]

so it is my only hope for a summer evening at the cinema.

I'm fairly certain I will be skipping the theaters this summer. Unless the heat just wearsme down and I go just for a break.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I'm fairly certain I will be skipping the theaters this summer. Unless the heat just wearsme down and I go just for a break.

When you go, see "Tammy". My vote is counting on you.

[Dukeface88]

You know what I can't figure out? Why I voted for Jupiter Ascending. Was it an abiding belief in the Wachowski siblings? A protest vote against the slew of sequals I will never watch? A vote that was intended for Guardians of the Galaxy?

This is going to bother me all summer long. I do hope that the movie is good, though. I am unlikely to see anything else on the list, so it is my only hope for a summer evening at the cinema.

Because you are looking forward to its inevitable contribution to the Sean Bean death reel?

Because at least one scene apparently involves a skate ramp and a dinosaur?

Because it was produced by Grant Hill? Yes, I know it's not the same one

[JasonEvans]

Through their first 6 days of release (Fri-Wed), ASM 2 is getting beaten pretty soundly by Cap 2. Cap 2 was at $113 mil after 6 days, ASM 2 is at $107 million.

There is little doubt at this point that Cap 2 will finish ahead of Spidey and it is really starting to look like Spidey may only make about $225-235 million, which could put it in real danger of missing the Top 5. I am starting to think that Godzilla could be a strong contender to beat it.

We also appear to have our first raunchy comedy breakout hit of the summer. Neighbors did $2.6 mil from late night Thursday showings and appears to be on its way to about a $40+ mil opening weekend. A movie like this, which should generate huge word of mouth buzz, is not nearly as front-loaded as an action flick so comparing that $40 mil start to the $90+ mil of the superhero movies is sorta meaningless at this point. By comparison, in 2012 Ted made $54 mil its opening weekend and went on to gross $218 million. That same summer, Men In Black 3 also made $54 mil its opening weekend but it ended the summer with just $179 mil in total boxoffice.

Lastly, early tracking is indicating that X-Men Days of Future Past is going to be really big. Hollywood is expecting it to earn around $125 million over the Memorial Day weekend. It if does that, $250+ mil is a lock and it will be in our Top 5, for sure.

-Jason "watch to see how much Spidey drops this weekend -- if it can do more than $40 mil, that will be good but if it is closer to $35 mil, it will likely struggle to make more than maybe $210 or $220 million" Evans

[BD80]

... it is really starting to look like Spidey may only make about $225-235 million, which could put it in real danger of missing the Top 5. I am starting to think that Godzilla could be a strong contender to beat it.

... early tracking is indicating that X-Men Days of Future Past is going to be really big. Hollywood is expecting it to earn around $125 million over the Memorial Day weekend. It if does that, $250+ mil is a lock and it will be in our Top 5, for sure.

-Jason "watch to see how much Spidey drops this weekend -- if it can do more than $40 mil, that will be good but if it is closer to $35 mil, it will likely struggle to make more than maybe $210 or $220 million" Evans

If X-men is in and Spidey is out, it would come down to OlympicFan (Guardians) and NashvilleDevil (Godzilla)

Cap, Train Your Dragon, Transformers, X-men ... Guardians or Godzilla.