View Poll Results: Which will be the Top 5 movies at the boxoffice this summer

Voters
39. You may not vote on this poll
  • Captain America 2: The Winter Soldier

    37 94.87%
  • Rio 2

    8 20.51%
  • Amazing Spider-Man 2

    37 94.87%
  • Godzilla

    7 17.95%
  • X-men: Days of Future Past

    23 58.97%
  • Million Ways to Die in the West

    6 15.38%
  • Maleficent

    0 0%
  • Edge of Tomorrow

    0 0%
  • How To Train Your Dragon 2

    33 84.62%
  • 22 Jump Street

    3 7.69%
  • Transformers: Age of Extinction

    27 69.23%
  • Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

    6 15.38%
  • Jupiter Ascending

    1 2.56%
  • Guardians of the Galaxy

    5 12.82%
  • Other (list in post)

    1 2.56%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 21 to 40 of 343
  1. #21
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Surprised Jason hasn't put up Hollywood Stock Exchange numbers, so I guess I will. I don't know how the following numbers translate into box office, but at least they provide comparative value.

    $252.80 Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May 2)
    $236.44 Captain America 2: The Winter Soldier (April 4)
    $229.86 X-Men: Days of Future Past (May 23)
    $229.66 Transformers: Age of Extinction (June 27)
    $193.19 How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 13)
    $165.80 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 11)
    $161.15 Godzilla (May 16)
    $160.61 Guardians of the Galaxy (Aug 1)
    $123.23 Maleficent (May 30)
    $121.72 22 Jump Street (June 13)
    $115.57 Edge of Tomorrow (June 6)
    $111.28 Rio 2 (April 11)
    $103.82 Million Ways to Die in the West (May 30)
    $89.27 Jupiter Ascending (July 18)

    Other notable films
    $99.06 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Aug 8)
    $86.41 Transcendence (April 18)
    $81.97 The Erotic Adventures of Hercules (July 25)
    $74.61 Neighbors (May 9)
    $73.91 Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (Aug 22)
    $73.75 Think Like a Man Too (June 20)
    $72.84 Planes: Fire and Rescue (July 18)
    $64.58 The Expendables 3 (Aug 15)
    $62.39 Tammy (July 2)
    $56.33 The Purge: Anarchy (July 18)
    $54.87 Sex Tape (July 25)
    $54.01 The Fault in Our Stars (June 6)
    $51.68 Blended (May 23)
    $50.09 Million Dollar Arm (May 16)

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "I know everyone is loading up on Cap 2, but April is a tough time to release a $220+ mil blockbuster. The mid-week numbers will be half of what a comparible May-July release makes" Evans
    History says he's right. April doesn't offer many box office hits at the summer level. Fast Five -- essentially a May film released one week early -- seems like an anomaly. August is better, but if you look at the past few years, not by much.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I know everyone is loading up on Cap 2, but April is a tough time to release a $220+ mil blockbuster. The mid-week numbers will be half of what a comparible May-July release makes
    If it doesn't make it, I vote that we leave any April movies out of the Summer voting next year. I'm not voting for it simply because I'm not in a Summer mood yet. I'm still waiting for Spring.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    California
    Jason, stop sandbagging and just pick the same five that everyone else is picking!

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by El_Diablo View Post
    Jason, stop sandbagging and just pick the same five that everyone else is picking!
    I did... Sigh.

    I can't even tell you how badly I wanted to vote for Apes or Godzilla, but I just could not do it. Too much uncertainty about Godzilla (it will need to be really good) and I think Apes faces an uphill battle because there is no meaningful star associated with it. I suspect both of them will make a lot of money, but I don't think they will catch the 5 I picked. In the end, I went with the 5 most popular picks: Cap 2, Spidey 2, XMen 5 or 6 or whatever, Dragon 2, and Transformers 4.

    As an aside, I think we will see more $175+ mill films this summer than ever before. I fully expect there to be 8-10 movies that at least come close to the $200 mill mark in boxoffice.

    -Jason "this year, the trailers look better and the concepts seem more bankable than in the past" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Even though it will surely keep me from winning, I can't vote for a movie that won't even be in the theaters by the time that Summer rolls around, which is Captain America.
    My five are
    • Transformers
    • Spiderman
    • Planet of Apes
    • Tame Your Dragon
    • And my sleeper comedy hit pick, Tammy.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    94.87% of us were correct.

    Captain America 2 opened to $96+ million, a huge number. Every single film that has opened north of $90 million has made at least $234 million at the boxoffice. Even with weaker midweek numbers due to everyone still being in school, I cannot imagine Cap 2 making less than $250, which should be more than enough to make our top 5.

    -Jason "1 down, 4 to go" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    So, my one question about Cap 2 had been whether the early release date (more spring than summer) would negatively impact the mid-week results. After all, it is a lot harder for kids to get out to see a flick during the school year versus the summer. Plus, there aren't as many families on vacation to check out a film mid-week.

    Well, it turns out Cap 2 is doing just fine mid-week. It did $6.2 mil on Monday and $6.9 mil on Tuesday. Those are both in line with what a $95 mil opening film should do mid-week. By comparison, when Iron Man opened with $98 mil in 2008, it did $6.9 and $6.5 mil on the Monday Tuesday after the opening weekend. So, Cap 2 is tracking pretty much in line with the original Iron Man (which went on to make $318 mil).

    -Jason "Cap 2 will probably be north of $160 million by the time this coming weekend is done" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    I voted for How To Train Your Dragon 2, heck almost all of us did. I am sure it will be a big hit.

    But I am freaking mad at the trailers. The latest one gives away the entire plot for the movie. I bet I could write a plot synopsis that would be darn close to correct from watching this thing.

    The really frustrating thing is that with a sequel like this, you don't have to give away a lot. Show us Toothless and Hiccup having some fun and you have probably convinced everyone to show up already. The original was fabulous with a truly clever plot. We don't need to be convinced that the sequel has a great plot, we already assume it.

    Sigh... such a pity. Here it is. Feel free to watch if you want to be able to talk about the movie while not bothering to see it.



    -Jason "the sheep at the end was a funny image -- though I am sure they will cram that image down our throats for the next two months until it is released" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  9. #29

    Trailers

    Earlier this week, I went to see Captain America 2 ... enjoyed the film, but I was blown away (not in a good way) by the barrage of trailers before the film.

    I expect 4-5 trailers these days ... this film was preceded by 13 -- I kid you not -- 13 trailers. Got to see plugs for:

    X-men, Maleficent, Transformers, Guardians of the Galaxy, Godzilla, Spider-Man, Jupiter Ascending, Edge of Tomorrow, Under the Skin, Lucy, 22 Jump Street, Teenage Mutant Turtles and The Expendables 3 ... amazing, no trailer for Transcendence, which has been bombarding me on TV for the last two weeks.

    Can't say that any made a big impression -- Guardians looked funny, Lucy intriguing. I thought they showed way too much of the title character in the Godzilla trailer. Now I've seen the monster (which is bigger and scarier than any previous Godzilla), I don't feel a need to see the film.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Under the Skin, Lucy
    Are you sure you did not see a trailer for one of these and think it was both? Scarlett Johansson in a low-budget flick where she uses her beauty to hide chemically/alien enhanced abilities.

    -Jason "Scarlett is crazy busy this summer -- she's in Cap 2, Under The Skin, Lucy, and Chef (which looks wonderful)" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  11. #31
    I predict "Neighbors" will be this summers "The Hangover". It won't break into the top 5, though.

  12. #32

    two for one

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Are you sure you did not see a trailer for one of these and think it was both? Scarlett Johansson in a low-budget flick where she uses her beauty to hide chemically/alien enhanced abilities.

    -Jason "Scarlett is crazy busy this summer -- she's in Cap 2, Under The Skin, Lucy, and Chef (which looks wonderful)" Evans
    Well, I didn't have a notebook and I was trying to reconstruct from memory. It's possible I saw just 12 trailers and got confused with the two Scarlett movies ... No, I just went to IMDB and watched the trailers from Under the Skin and Lucy ... and I did see both of them before Captain America.

    BTW: In Under the Skin, Scarlett is an alien who preys on hitchhikers in Scotland. Fair enough. But while watching the trailer, IMDB suggests links to "If you liked this, here are some other films you may like."

    One of the links to a similar film that Under the Skin was ... Love Actually???!!!

    Edit: Okay, I went back to check and what I thought was a link to Love Actually was actually a freeze frame of a title card that said "from the creator of Love Actually" and the link was to the film "About Time" ... it still doesn't seem like a good fit, but it makes a little more sense.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Are you sure you did not see a trailer for one of these and think it was both? Scarlett Johansson in a low-budget flick where she uses her beauty to hide chemically/alien enhanced abilities.

    -Jason "Scarlett is crazy busy this summer -- she's in Cap 2, Under The Skin, Lucy, and Chef (which looks wonderful)" Evans
    Lucy looks interesting but I like a lot of Besson's work. Doubt it could make the Top 5 but trailer was intriguing. Scarlett was great in Cap2.

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    It does not look good for blazindw, davekay1971, Jim3k, Lord Ash, luburch, PSurprise, toughbuff1, and YmoBeThere. Rio 2 opened with just $39 million. In fact, it wasn't even the #1 movie at the boxoffice this weekend. That honor went to Cap2, which did just over $41 million. Cap2 only fell 56% from its opening weekend number, which is great staying power for a film like this. The Cap2 weekday numbers Wed and Thurs were not as good as I had expected, I think the non-summer start is going to impact things a bit for this flick, but the weekend is quite good and there is no question at this point that CAp2 is going to, at least, do something close to $250 mil.

    As for Rio2, it seems destined to be about a $120 -$130 mil movie, maybe a bit higher if it shows unusually long legs, but it is not going to be much of a threat to make our Top 5 of Summer.

    -Jason "we've got a couple weeks off now, until ASM2 on May 2nd. I don't think Transcendence or anything else opening over the next couple weeks will really make an impact on our contest" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Rio2 made the mistake of coming out when it did. Needed to move to a good summer weekend when there wasn't HTTYD2 coming in the next 2 weeks.

    That aside...we have (I think) our first true Blackhorse contender in a few weeks....Neighbors. It's at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and people are saying that it is raunchy and hysterical. It opens on May 9th and has no real competition until May 30th. If it gets good word of mouth, and more good ratings, it could do big business over Memorial Day weekend. Still don't think it makes the top 5, but it might crack the top 7 (and I didn't think any film had a chance to do that other than Cap2, Spidey, Transformers, HTTYD2, Godzilla, Million Ways and Planet).

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    Weekend Update

    Cap 2 held up very nicely in its third weekend. It is still the #1 movie in theaters and only fell 35.5% from last weekend. It made $26.6 million and has now passed the $200 mill mark at $201.5 million. It is headed to somewhere north of $250 million and a certain spot in our Top 5.

    Rio 2 held up nicely with just a 42.8% drop from its opening weekend, but still looks like a huge longshot to make even $150 million. It made $22.5 million this weekend and sits at $75.3 million.

    Transcendence proved to be yet another Johnny Depp bomb, making just $11 million. If you look at his movies, he hasn't starred (not including voice work in Rango) in a really good movie in about a decade (depends on what you think of Public Enemies). At this point, I have learned to expect Johny Depp movies to stink and then I am pleasantly surprised if they even come close to making sense.

    -Jason "two weeks until Spidey... that's when things will really heat up" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  17. #37
    Rio 2 sucked. Couldn't even finish watching it
    Last edited by kshepinthehouse; 04-22-2014 at 12:34 AM. Reason: Misspell

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    It does not look good for blazindw, davekay1971, Jim3k, Lord Ash, luburch, PSurprise, toughbuff1, and YmoBeThere. Rio 2 opened with just $39 million. In fact, it wasn't even the #1 movie at the boxoffice this weekend.
    My tourney brackets rarely survive the first weekend, why should this be any different?

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    That aside...we have (I think) our first true Blackhorse contender in a few weeks....Neighbors. It's at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and people are saying that it is raunchy and hysterical. It opens on May 9th and has no real competition until May 30th. If it gets good word of mouth, and more good ratings, it could do big business over Memorial Day weekend. Still don't think it makes the top 5, but it might crack the top 7 (and I didn't think any film had a chance to do that other than Cap2, Spidey, Transformers, HTTYD2, Godzilla, Million Ways and Planet).
    Quote Originally Posted by Reisen View Post
    I predict "Neighbors" will be this summers "The Hangover". It won't break into the top 5, though.
    You and I think alike. I think it beats Million Ways easily, and narrowly beats Godzilla and Planet. My prediction is it either comes in 6th after X-Men, or possibly takes the 5th spot (after the big 4).

  20. #40

    Neighbors

    Quote Originally Posted by Reisen View Post
    You and I think alike. I think it beats Million Ways easily, and narrowly beats Godzilla and Planet. My prediction is it either comes in 6th after X-Men, or possibly takes the 5th spot (after the big 4).
    Really?

    The trailer for Neighbors makes it look awful to me ... but maybe because I'm an old fart and don't find the [premise that a fraternity moves next store to a normal couple and ruins their life to be a bit funny.

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