Top 5 movies of Summer 2014

[gurufrisbee]

How to Train Your Dragon 2 was fantastic. Clearly it had way too much quality to be a box office champion.

[Olympic Fan]

Looks like Planet of the Apes is headed for a $70 million opening. That's not bad, but not great either -- $20 million less than Godzilla and Spidey. It's going to have to have strong legs to get to $200 million.

Read an interesting piece in EW about this summer's box office -- overall, it's not bad (fourth best over the last 10 years). But it lacks blockbusters. Since 2005, at least one film every year has hit $380 million in domestic box office. We're not going to have a $280 million film this year.

One other point I didn't realize ... many summer films are still awaiting release in Europe and South America. They were held up to avoid competing with the World Cup!

[YmoBeThere]

Read an interesting piece in EW about this summer's box office -- overall, it's not bad (fourth best over the last 10 years). But it lacks blockbusters. Since 2005, at least one film every year has hit $380 million in domestic box office. We're not going to have a $280 million film this year.

Did they control for inflation? I know it has been moderate over the last couple of years. But it is persistent.

[JasonEvans]

Final numbers do not come out until tomorrow, but it is clear that Apes will be a player in our contest. It opened a bit better than most in Hollywood had expected with a $73 million weekend. The estimates kept on growing all weekend (it started out looking like a $60 mil weekend) because it became clear that there was strong word-of-mouth building and driving better than expected traffic on Saturday and Sunday. While a $73 mil opening for a film with so-so or poor reviews would make earning $200 mil almost impossible, a film like Apes (with great reviews and word of mouth) seems likely to get at 3x multiplier (or better) from opening to final boxoffice total. We will need to see how it holds up mid-week and in weekend number 2, but a total boxoffice haul in the low-mid $200s certainly seems possible.

-Jason "the top 5 remains totally up for grabs..." Evans

[BD80]

... -Jason "the top 5 remains totally up for grabs..." Evans

And Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles opens August 8

[dpslaw]

I must say that Malificent's legs are impressive. The movie has a decent shot at passing X-Men's domestic gross. It is now down approximately $4 million, and after the weekend, should be down by a little more than $2 million. Not bad for no votes!

[NashvilleDevil]

After last weekend top 5:

1. Captain America 2 - $258,409,981
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $230,475,000
3. Maleficent - $228,367,000
4. Transformers 4 - $227,157,000
5. Amazing Spider Man 2 - $201,597,625

Transformers will be #2 before the end of the week and has an outside shot to overtake Captain America. I am still interested to see what Guardians of the Galaxy does since I picked it for the top 5.

[JasonEvans]

After last weekend top 5:

1. Captain America 2 - $258,409,981
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $230,475,000
3. Maleficent - $228,367,000
4. Transformers 4 - $227,157,000
5. Amazing Spider Man 2 - $201,597,625

Transformers will be #2 before the end of the week and has an outside shot to overtake Captain America. I am still interested to see what Guardians of the Galaxy does since I picked it for the top 5.

After this past weekend, it is clear that Spidey will not hold onto that #5 spot. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes made $36 million, a drop of just 50% from its opening weekend, which is a fabulous hold. There is every indication that the film is getting strong word of mouth and that it will have long legs (it helps that the competition was fairly weak this past weekend and won't get too tough until Guardians opens in 2 weekends).

Dawn is at $139 million through 2 weeks and is running about 33% ahead of Rise of the Planet of the Apes, which ended up making $176 million. If Dawn stays ahead by 33%, it will make $234 million. Now, I don't expect it to do quite that well, but $225 million should be doable. Regardless, it is certain to pass Spidey, but I don't think it will quite catch Maleficent or XMen.

Meanwhile, we await Guardians. I am betting it ends up being somewhere in the $190-$210 million kind of range. It is going to be tough for an August release to do much more than that, though it has had one of the most aggressive marketing campaigns of the entire year.

-Jason "this weekend brings Lucy and Hercules, neither of which will make more than maybe $100 million" Evans

[Udaman]

Pretty wild that nobody is going to do better than 3 out of 5.

[NashvilleDevil]

Pretty wild that nobody is going to do better than 3 out of 5.

Not if Guardians makes the top 5. There will be someone that got 4/5.

[Faison1]

After last weekend top 5:

1. Captain America 2 - $258,409,981
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $230,475,000
3. Maleficent - $228,367,000
4. Transformers 4 - $227,157,000
5. Amazing Spider Man 2 - $201,597,625

Transformers will be #2 before the end of the week and has an outside shot to overtake Captain America. I am still interested to see what Guardians of the Galaxy does since I picked it for the top 5.

What a sad state of affairs. It's amazing to me what's happened to the movie industry. Maybe this has been covered in the previous 11 pages, but Wow! Every movie is from a comic book.

What happened to the Summer Blockbusters like Top Gun, Ghostbusters, Trading Places, Ferris Buehler, Back to the Future? Pretty much every summer in the 80's had good movies. At the time, I would have never guessed it was the Golden Age of Hollywood. (I know there were other glorious periods, but the 80's were pretty good for film.)

[ncexnyc]

What a sad state of affairs. It's amazing to me what's happened to the movie industry. Maybe this has been covered in the previous 11 pages, but Wow! Every movie is from a comic book.

What happened to the Summer Blockbusters like Top Gun, Ghostbusters, Trading Places, Ferris Buehler, Back to the Future? Pretty much every summer in the 80's had good movies. At the time, I would have never guessed it was the Golden Age of Hollywood. (I know there were other glorious periods, but the 80's were pretty good for film.)

In the movie “Gladiator”, Maximus asked a crowd of stunned on lookers, “Are you not entertained? ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?! Is this not why you're here?!”

Well having seen four of our current top five movies, I can say yes I was entertained. I grew up on Silver Age Marvel comics and thought Kirby and Lee were the greatest thing since sliced bread. Godzilla is right outside our top five and I watched the Raymond Burr version over and over again on WOR’s, “Million Dollar Movie.”

So these movies are something special to me and while some of you thumb your nose at them because they offend your sensibility as to what constitutes a good movie, I’m thrilled to spend my entertainment dollars on these films. I’ll probably be seeing, “Lucy” this weekend and can’t wait for “Guardians of the Galaxy”, “Teenage Mutant Turtles”, and, “Sin City 2.”

[Faison1]

In the movie “Gladiator”, Maximus asked a crowd of stunned on lookers, “Are you not entertained? ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?! Is this not why you're here?!”

Well having seen four of our current top five movies, I can say yes I was entertained. I grew up on Silver Age Marvel comics and thought Kirby and Lee were the greatest thing since sliced bread. Godzilla is right outside our top five and I watched the Raymond Burr version over and over again on WOR’s, “Million Dollar Movie.”

So these movies are something special to me and while some of you thumb your nose at them because they offend your sensibility as to what constitutes a good movie, I’m thrilled to spend my entertainment dollars on these films. I’ll probably be seeing, “Lucy” this weekend and can’t wait for “Guardians of the Galaxy”, “Teenage Mutant Turtles”, and, “Sin City 2.”

Definitely didn't mean to offend you. Obviously, by the numbers, I would have offended half the Nation if that was my intent.

My commentary was directed more towards Hollywood. It's become formulaic as a result of the confusing evolution of the movie business. Hollywood's only reaction to change has been to make comic book or sci-fi films. And don't get me wrong....I'm a huge Sci-Fi fan. But, the difference between Star Wars, Close Encounters, and Aliens and that of Elysium, Oblivion, and Promethius is pretty huge.

As a friend of mine who is a Hollywood actor told me, "Today, American Beauty would not have been made."

[JasonEvans]

I'm a huge Sci-Fi fan. But, the difference between Star Wars, Close Encounters, and Aliens and that of Elysium, Oblivion, and Promethius is pretty huge.

Nice cherry picking

Star Wars, Close Encounters, and Aliens are three of the truly great sci-fi films of all time. They defined various aspects of the genre and I will agree that we have not seen truly seminal films like that very much lately. But, we have had plenty of quality in the sci-fi/action genre in recent years. Inception, Avatar, Looper, Edge of Tomorrow, and Dawn of the Apes were all pure sci-fi and are each outstanding films. We are obviously in the golden age of comic book movies with stuff like Avengers and Dark Knight setting a high bar and many films coming close to them in terms of comic book movie quality.

I am not saying we are at the level we were in the late 70s/early 80s, which also brought us Blade Runner and The Thing, but it is not like nothing good is coming out of Hollywood. I somewhat lament the lack of anything truly original from anyone not named Christopher Nolan but we are getting more than enough high quality stuff -- even the stuff based on graphic novels or comic books -- so that I am quite happy.

-Jason "notice I didn't even talk about the early 2000s which gave us the Lord of the Rings trilogy and the first batch of X-Men films... some high quality stuff there!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I’ll probably be seeing, “Lucy” this weekend

Ummmm... I think you are better off saving your money. It starts out well and is a kinda cool and tense movie for the first 2/3rds or so, but then it falls off a cliff in a brutally bad way. I mean, the final 30 minutes were just awful. I spent the first half of the film thinking, "hmmm, I wonder where they will go with this?" and the second half thinking, "THIS is where they are going!??!?!!? Argh!!!"

The film essentially closes with a ten minute time travel thing that is straight out of Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life... and that ain't a compliment. Ugh! Awful! Do yourself a favor, if you do see it, walk out at the part where she starts time traveling.

-Jason "the film largely takes place in Paris and features a Taiwanese bad guy -- it will do very nice boxoffice overseas (which may have been Luc Besson's only real goal with this thing)" Evans

[Reisen]

Yeah, Lucy looks horrible, and I don't trust Besson to make a decent movie anymore.

I echo the comments on what a great decade for film the 80's was. That said, I agree that we've seen some really high quality superhero movies in the past decade, easily better than the 80's / 90's versions. Part of the reason comic book movies are so good is because we've come a long way from fare like "Batman & Robin".

[Faison1]

Nice cherry picking

Star Wars, Close Encounters, and Aliens are three of the truly great sci-fi films of all time. They defined various aspects of the genre and I will agree that we have not seen truly seminal films like that very much lately. But, we have had plenty of quality in the sci-fi/action genre in recent years. Inception, Avatar, Looper, Edge of Tomorrow, and Dawn of the Apes were all pure sci-fi and are each outstanding films. We are obviously in the golden age of comic book movies with stuff like Avengers and Dark Knight setting a high bar and many films coming close to them in terms of comic book movie quality.

I am not saying we are at the level we were in the late 70s/early 80s, which also brought us Blade Runner and The Thing, but it is not like nothing good is coming out of Hollywood. I somewhat lament the lack of anything truly original from anyone not named Christopher Nolan but we are getting more than enough high quality stuff -- even the stuff based on graphic novels or comic books -- so that I am quite happy.

-Jason "notice I didn't even talk about the early 2000s which gave us the Lord of the Rings trilogy and the first batch of X-Men films... some high quality stuff there!" Evans

You're right...that wasn't fair of me to cherry pick like that. My only point was that Hollywood is in a tailspin when it comes to creativity. They are stuck in a rut of taking "used" stories and bandaging them with new high tech effects.

I agree that there have been some good films, but they seem to focus more on the technology, and less on story or acting ability.

Avatar (which I thoroughly enjoyed) epitomizes this new trend. It is simply "Dances with Wolves" in 3-D.

Again, I agree there are some good films out there...it's just interesting to watch a very quickly changing industry...just like music, newspapers, magazines, the Post Office: lacking direction and not sure of the future.

[FerryFor50]

You're right...that wasn't fair of me to cherry pick like that. My only point was that Hollywood is in a tailspin when it comes to creativity. They are stuck in a rut of taking "used" stories and bandaging them with new high tech effects.

I agree that there have been some good films, but they seem to focus more on the technology, and less on story or acting ability.

Avatar (which I thoroughly enjoyed) epitomizes this new trend. It is simply "Dances with Wolves" in 3-D.

Again, I agree there are some good films out there...it's just interesting to watch a very quickly changing industry...just like music, newspapers, magazines, the Post Office: lacking direction and not sure of the future.

Curious that you used Avatar as the example of a movie that falls into a "used" story. Avatar was an original, written by James Cameron. I'd also argue that Oblivion and Edge of Tomorrow were not un-original sci-fi. In fact, Oblivion was touted to be based on a graphic novel, but it didn't actually exist...

http://www.bleedingcool.com/2013/04/...graphic-novel/

Edge of Tomorrow was based on a 1958 book. But how many great sci-fi movies were based on books? (Hint: Just about all of them)

I generally agree that you are seeing a lot of re-treads, but let's not fool ourselves into thinking this hasn't *always* been the case in Hollywood.

Think about the '80s... how many movies ended up being made simply for the toy sales and crossover Happy Meal promotions? And how many comedies were featuring gratuitous T&A rather than focusing on being funny?

Every decade has a common theme in Hollywood, and it's based on what makes money at the box office. This decade, it's special effects and comic book adaptations.

[Duvall]

As a friend of mine who is a Hollywood actor told me, "Today, American Beauty would not have been made."

I take your point about preferring original blockbusters to sequels and adaptations of existing properties, but I'm not sure I follow you here. What is it about American Beauty that would make it difficult to make today? Seems like David O. Russell comes out with a similar movie every year or so.

[FerryFor50]

I take your point about preferring original blockbusters to sequels and adaptations of existing properties, but I'm not sure I follow you here. What is it about American Beauty that would make it difficult to make today? Seems like David O. Russell comes out with a similar movie every year or so.

Agreed.

And honestly, I think it's MORE likely that American Beauty would have gotten made today. With all the indie film festivals, Kickstarter, etc... it would have been no problem to get it made.

Think of Beasts of the Southern Wild... that got Oscar recognition. I'd argue the opposite - movies like "Beasts of the Southern Wild" would not have been made in 1999. Or at least, it might have been made, but NEVER would have received the same accolades.