Originally Posted by
Udaman
Rats. I still don't like that the April movies are included in this. Makes it too long (and adds a true contender that will definitely dance around the edges). Given that, I'm going to do my top 5 both with and without Captain America (just because). Also, please note, I just hit send on my picks, but had accidentally made a mistake. So I'm correcting that with this.
First my locks. There are three:
1. How to Train Your Dragon 2. No other kid movies to compete with it. A first movie that was really loved, and a movie that has unbelievable visual images (that will thrive on the 3-D audience). This movie makes $250M for sure.
2. Spider Man (reboot) 2. Every Spider Man has made over $225M. There's no competition for it for a while.
3. Transformers. I HATE taking this movie, but these always do well. Always. They get the young boy audience, and all have made over $300M
Now my semi-lock. Just 1
4. Captain America. I was not going to vote for this, but then the reviews started coming in. It's at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. That's impressive. It will get good word of mouth. There is no competition for a month. The only thing hurting it is the fact that it a) comes out in April, so there's some uncertainty as to how many people go see it while school is still in and b) Captain America tends to be the most cerebral of the Marvel heroes, which may keep people away (my kids aren't dying to see Captain America, like they were for Iron Man). But I'm going with the strong reviews and the Avengers hangover effect. I really wish, though, that I didn't have to vote for this one.
So now #5. There are three (and only 3) choices if you ask me: A Million Ways to Die in the West, Godzilla and Planet of the Apes. In the end, I went with Godzilla.
Why? Three reasons. First (and most important) the trailer looks outstanding. I don't like watching trailers (I like being spoiler free), and I saw this one by accident, not knowing what it was about. It showed the guys jumping out of the airplane to try and attack it, with their point of view and terrified breaths. It was edge of your seat stuff. Second - history. The first Godzilla came out in 1998. It was truly awful. I mean awful, as in the first Hulk movie awful. Matthew Broderick was the lead, there was terrible writing and mediocre special effects at best. That awful movie made $136M. So, that's bad, right? Well, if you assume 3% annual inflation, then $136M in 1998 equates to $218M today. Oh, and this one is coming out in 3-D. That's another 15% at least. That's $250M. And did I mention the first one was awful? If this one is even remotely good (and the trailers look outstanding), then it could definitely make the $250M mark, which puts it in the Top 5. Third - Bryan Cranston. He wouldn't get involved in something awful.
So my top 5 are: Captain, Spidey, Transformers, Dragons and Godzilla.
If Captain America wasn't there, it would be really tough to try and pick the 5th, because I think Apes and West are going to finish very close to each other. I think I would have to go with Planet of the Apes. I think A Million Ways to Die in the West is going to break $200M. People love Seth, and they loved Ted, and it's a raunchy summer comedy with great actors. But there's a ceiling for shows like this. You can't take little kids (and enough people took little kids to see Ted), and the over 65 crowd won't go, so it's college kids through 60. The ceiling is about $210M, and that won't be enough to crack the top 5, or, I think, to beat either Godzilla or Apes.
But, I will say this. Those 7 films will finish in the top 7. Period.
What won't?
1) Rio 2. Anyone picking this is throwing their chances away. The first one didn't do that well, and there's almost no buzz in my family to go see the next one (and the previews have looked thin at best). I think it will make $160-$200M at the most, and that won't be enough.
2) X-Men. I'm stoked to see it, but the last X-Men movie got great reviews and only made $147M. Then The Wolverine came out last summer (also to decent reviews) and made $132M. It's hard to see a movie that now (clearly) has a limited fan base break the $225M barrier.
3) 22 Jump Street or Neighbors. Not enough of a broad base demand for either.
4) Edge of Tomorrow. Too much like Oblivion. Sci Fi Action thrillers don't make $150M (see District 9, Total Recall, Elysium)
The top 7 (in some order) will be Captain America, Spiderman2, How to train your dragon, Transformers, Godzilla, Planet of the Apes, A Million Ways to Die.
So what about sleepers? 22 Jump Street I would put in there. As JE also stated - the stars are huge, and the first one did well. I just think it will be slightly too raunchy to make it (plus not enough women will want to go). For me the real Sleeper isn't on the list. It's "Heaven is for Real." The book sold a ton, and this one plays to the (gigantic) religious audience out there. The Passion of the Christ made $300M. I don't think will get anywhere close, but if it gets good reviews, and the churches start encouraging their patrons to go see it, and it gets good word of mouth, it could easily exceed $100M, and stay in the theaters for a long time. Super Sleeper for sure....but has biggest upside.
Finally, the movies I'm most excited to see are Captain America, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, A Million Ways to Die in the West, Edge of Tomorrow (Groundhog Day with guns) and Planet of the Apes.