View Poll Results: Which will be the Top 5 movies at the boxoffice this summer

Voters
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  • Captain America 2: The Winter Soldier

    37 94.87%
  • Rio 2

    8 20.51%
  • Amazing Spider-Man 2

    37 94.87%
  • Godzilla

    7 17.95%
  • X-men: Days of Future Past

    23 58.97%
  • Million Ways to Die in the West

    6 15.38%
  • Maleficent

    0 0%
  • Edge of Tomorrow

    0 0%
  • How To Train Your Dragon 2

    33 84.62%
  • 22 Jump Street

    3 7.69%
  • Transformers: Age of Extinction

    27 69.23%
  • Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

    6 15.38%
  • Jupiter Ascending

    1 2.56%
  • Guardians of the Galaxy

    5 12.82%
  • Other (list in post)

    1 2.56%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #1
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    Feb 2007
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    Top 5 movies of Summer 2014

    With just 2 weeks until Captain America 2 hits theaters, we are going to launch our annual summer movie poll. Your votes in the poll must be registered by April 3rd, the day before Cap opens.

    Seeing as we have done this many times before, almost all of you should know the rules... but just in case there are newbies who are confused, here is how it works.

    You will vote for 5 films in the poll. You are attempting to pick the 5 top films at the boxoffice over the summer. We will be measuring boxoffice starting the first week of April and going through the final weekend of September (Sept 28th). It is possible we will be able to declare our top 5 before then, but if it is a close race, it will close on 9/28.

    As I said, vote for 5 films. If you vote for 6, you are DQ'd. If you vote for 4, you cannot get 5 right and that is the goal -- 5-for-5. By the way, going 4-for-4 is not better than going 4-for-5, so don't try that trick to look like the winner.

    Here are the films that will be in the poll along with their release dates.

    Captain America 2: The Winter Soldier (April 4)
    Rio 2 (April 11)
    Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May 2)
    Godzilla (May 16)
    X-men: Days of Future Past (May 23)
    Million Ways to Die in the West (May 30)
    Maleficent (May 30)
    Edge of Tomorrow (June 6)
    How To Train Your Dragon 2 (June 13)
    22 Jump Street (June 13)
    Transformers: Age of Extinction (June 27)
    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 11)
    Jupiter Ascending (July 18)
    Guardians of the Galaxy (Aug 1)
    OTHER - as always, if you want to vote for something else, simply check the "Other" box in the poll and list that film in a post. If you want to vote for Chef or Blended or Neighbors or anything else, that is fine. Just let us know what "Other" is for you.

    And, perhaps most importantly, please trash talk amongst your friends and explain your picks.

    -Jason "Now, have at it! Enjoy!! And make sure to get your votes in by April 3rd" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #2
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    I went with the all-sequel picks, which I suspect will be a common theme, except for someone trying to outsmart the pool by picking one or two sleepers.

    Cap2 seems obvious. While the first didn't do enough box office to make top 5 in it's year, Cap 2 has several big advantages. First, early release date. Second, the trailers look awesome. Third, the big time Avengers bounce with plenty of Avenger yumminess in the form of Scarlett Johannson heavily featured in the trailers (there's also that other Avengers guy played by Sam Jackson who looks to play a sizeable role). Fourth, Robert Redford. Having an acting icon lend some gravity and cred to the movie as an obvious political heavyweight in the trailers is a good thing. Cap2 looks poised to make, by my amateur hour guesswork, in the $250+ range.

    Dragon 2 is another obvious pick, IMHO. The first did quite well, was well reviewed, and leaves the sequel with plenty of good will to use. The trailers look gorgeous, and there's plenty of story aching to be told about Hiccup and Toothless. Plus, there's no Pixar giant waiting to scoop up the kiddie bucks on July 4, so Dragon has every animated dollar all to itself from June 13 on. Even better, it's only the 2nd kid release of the summer, with the much-less-anticipated Rio2 in front of it. Needless to say, parents will NOT be tired of taking kids to the animated stuff by the time Dragon hits...and parents like me will be at least as excited as their kids anyway. I mean, How to Train Your Dragon was awesome.

    Amazing Spider Man 2: Much like How To Train Your Dragon 2, this movie benefits from some truly warm feelings and goodwill given the quality of the predecessor. Amazing Spider Man was generally regarded as a pleasant surprise for a reboot. Add in Jamie Foxx as your baddie and some nice hints about the coming Green Goblin arch-nemesis, this movie should open very well. If it's a good movie, it could match Cap2 in the $250+ range. It's also got a good window, with a solid month having passed since Cap's release and 3 weeks until X-Men Days of Future Past comes along

    Speaking of, Days of Future Past: Benefits from two well received movies plus the long-standing Hugh Jackman Wolviness. Wolverine was pretty well received (although I personally thought it was a hugely missed opportunity), and X-Men First Class was just a very good movie. Conspicuously drawing on the best parts of the first two X-Men movies (Hugh Jackman, Patrick Stewart, and Ian McKellen) and combining them with the pairing that made First Class so good (Michael Fassbender, James McAvoy, and Jennifer Lawrence), putting Bryan Singer back at the helm, and throwing some Peter Dinklage in there just for Game of Thrones geeks like me, makes this an appealing super hero movie in every way. I anticipate a strong opening, and awesome legs...not just on Jennifer Lawrence either.

    Number 5 is, as always, the toughest pick for me. I wimped out and went with the other animated movie in Rio 2. Rio was cute, and did well at the box office. I'm not sure that it can do better than the utter crap that will be Transformers: Marky Mark and the Funky Bots, but I can pray. Rio's got the kid market cornered until June 13, and that's probably enough time for some really solid BO, particularly if the movie is good enough to make parents okay with repeat viewings.

    ps: Not trying to pick on Mark Wahlberg. He's okay as an actor, definitely a big upgrade from Shia LeBoof. And his family Wahlburgers show is pretty fun (and makes me hungry at each viewing). But I'm beyond done with Transformers movies. I hope America is too, but that may be asking too much. At least Throatybeard can rely on being able to catch it at his local theater, though!

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    ... Here are the films that will be in the poll along with their release dates.

    ...Jupiter Ascending (July 18) ...

    -Jason "Now, have at it! Enjoy!! And make sure to get your votes in by April 3rd" Evans
    I suppose I should alert potential voters that Jupiter Ascending - in addition to Mila Kunis and Tatum Channing - has, as a producer ----

    Grant Hill !!!!!

    I never knew that he was born in Australia and earned a law degree in 1978

  4. #4
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    Cary, NC
    Picked the probably obvious ones in Cap2, Dragon2 and Spidey2. The last two were difficult. I went with X-men just for the fan boy audience and how decently received The Wolverine was. But I went off kilter a bit with the Million Ways To Die In The West more as a sleeper since it will get laughs and has Charlize Theron in it.

    Of the ones I didn't pic, I think "Dawn" could do ok since "Rise" got a lot of notoriety and was well received as well.
    Duke '96
    Cary, NC

  5. #5
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    There is a huge gaping hole in the list. No July 4th movies are listed. Not saying they are a wise choice or not, it is just an observation. According to movieinsider.com, these are the movies being released Wednesday the 2nd. From eyeballing it, the sleeper pick I would go with would be the R rated comedy, Tammy, starring Melissa McCarthy, Dan Akroyd, Susan Sarandon, and Kathy Bates. It might be the needed balance for people not into superheroes and stuff being blown up.
    Here is the list for the July 4th releases.
    http://www.movieinsider.com/movies/july/2014/
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  6. #6
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    So, I see this as a much more difficult year than previous ones. In the past, there were 3 or 4 mortal locks and then only a couple other reasonable contenders for the last spot or two. This year there are a lot more legit contenders (to say nothing of the surprise hit).

    I want to take a moment to focus on the sequels. I do this not only because they are some of the strongest contenders to make our list, but also because the fact that the originals have an established boxoffice track record allows us to project a bit about how a sequel will do. I’ll look at them in chronological order:

    Captain America 2 - The original made $176.6 million in a summer crowded with comic book superhero movies. That $176 is a big number when you consider that Cap came out in late July, when blockbuster fatigue had set in. It is also harder for films to have strong legs into August and September because everyone gets out of moviegoing mode later in the summer. I think that $176 in late July is the same as a May film making about $210-220 mill. So, props to Cap for the success of the original. But, Cap 2 is not a May movie. It is being released in April, a full month earlier than usual for a film like this. We have to wonder a bit if audiences will be ready for a summer blockbuster in spring. Kids won’t be out of school yet, so don’t expect Cap 2 to post big mid-week numbers. We don’t have much of an April blockbuster track record, but I am tempted to say that it will likely be about the same as being released in late July. So, what else does Cap 2 have going for it? He biggest thing is the so-called Avengers Halo Effect that all Avengers-related films have benefited from since Avengers was such a huge hit. Iron Man 3 made 31% more than Iron Man 2 ($409 mil vs $312 mil), Thor 2 made about 14% more than Thor ($206 mil vs $182 mil). If Cap does somewhere in between those two, like a 22% increase, it will make $215 million. Will that be good enough for the Top 5? I dunno... it would be close but maybe not quite.

    Rio 2 - The original made $143.6 mil. If the sequel enjoys a 25% jump, that would take it to $179 mil. It would take a 40% jump to get it over $200 million. I think it is quite possible you will need to make $220 mil to make the top 5 this summer. That would be about a 55% improvement. I know that Rio 2 comes out very early in the season, but I actually think that could hurt it a bit as kids are not out of school yet when it is released and by the time they get out in mid-late May, Rio 2 may feel stale and old news. Despite a relative lack of kid-friendly competition this summer, I give Rio 2 one only a tiny chance to make the Top 5.

    Amazing Spider-Man 2 – The original made $262 million. That would seem to make this flick a mortal lock to be in our Top 5. But, it is worth noting that since the original Sam Rami Spider-man made a staggering $403 mil in 2002, the webslinger has made less and less with each successive movie. Spider-Man 2 made $373 mil (-7.4%), Spider-Man 3 made $336 mil (-9.9%), and then Amazing Spider-Man made $262 mil (-22%). If ASM2 is down 10% it still makes $235 mil, which should be enough to be in the top 5. But, if it suffers another 20% drop, it probably won’t make it. Another thing worth noting – this film is going to feature three villains (Electro, GGoblin, and Rhino). In the past, multiple villains have been a bad thing for film quality when it comes to superhero movies.

    X-Men DOFP – X-Men: First Class made $146.4 mil at the boxoffice. Like Rio 2, the sequel needs to improve by something like 50% to get to where it likely needs to be to make our top 5. Last summer’s Wolverine film did fine, $132 mil, but was nowhere near being a top 5 contender and this film will heavily feature Wolverine. So, what makes anyone think DOFP has a shot at the top 5? Well, First Class was loved by fans and critics (87% on RottenTomatoes) and is considered one of the better comic book movies of the past decade. That kind of good will can really help a sequel. Plus, Jennifer Lawrence and Michael Fassbender have become even bigger stars since First Class was made and you can bet Lawrence will be very prominently featured in the advertising. Comic book fans who know a bit about the storyline are excited about it and this film has very strong buzz. It may be a bit of a stretch, but I think this flick has a real chance to make our top 5.

    How to Train Your Dragon 2
    – The original made $217 million. If you did not know that fact, you would probably have bet it made well over $300 million. It is a widely loved film and did big business on DVD while also spawning a cartoon TV series. Audiences and critics adored this flick and I think everyone expects the sequel to do even more business. A mere 10% increase would put it close to $240 million. In a summer with very few family films, I will be shocked if HTTYD2 does not make well over $250 million.

    22 Jump Street – 21 Jump Street made $138 mil, a big figure for an action comedy but not nearly in the league with big summer blockbusters. Critics and audiences liked it and there is excitement about the sequel. Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill are even bigger stars today than they were then and co-directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller are hot since their work on The Lego Movie. It is worth noting that the original was a spring release and summer movies are always going to do better than ones released in March. It would need to do about 60% more than the original to be in the ballpark of the top 5, but that is not impossible. One thing that may work against it is that this seems to be a crowded summer for raunchy comedy with A Million Way To Die In the West and Neighbors opening before Jump Street and Tammy opening just a few weeks after it. I’d rate this sequel a bit of a longshot to reach our top 5.

    Transformers 4 – It has been just 3 years since Dark of the Moon hit theaters and yet this is being considered somewhat of a reboot for the Transformers franchise. Mark Whalberg is a bigger star than loopy Shia LaBeouf and he has some action star credibility, which could help this flick. The previous three Transformer movies all made well over $300 million despite never being loved by critics. This franchise just seems to click with a large number of moviegoers. Dark of the Moon made $352 million. Age of Extinction could be down 33% from that and still make $230+ million. As others have noted, there are no blockbusters scheduled for July 4th weekend, meaning Transformers 4 could have 2 weekends of being the unchallenged big daddy in theaters. I have never been a fan of these films, but anyone who does not consider this film a lock for the top 5 is probably making a mistake.

    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - Rise of the POA was a critical darling that made $176 million in 2011 despite being an August release. Dawn gets a much more friendly release the week after July 4th. It is also common for a sequel coming from a really well-liked film to do bigger business than the original. A 20% increase would get Dawn to a little more than $210 million, which should make it a Top 5 contender. But, there are negatives here too. There is a new director on board (Matt Reeves of Cloverfield replacing Rupert Wyatt) and James Franco won't appear in this film. The biggest star this time around is Gary Oldman, who is not exactly a "I need to see his film!" kind of Hollywood stud. Still, the early trailers look strong and Rise built up a lot of good will. Mark Whalberg's poorly reviewed Planet of the Apes film in 2001 made $180 million (inflation adjusted, that is north of $250 million in today's moviegoing dollars), which shows there is real consumer appetite for this franchise. I don't think I will pick this film, but I won't be shocked if it makes the top 5.

    Well, there you have it... my research on the sequels. I suspect there are a couple non-sequels that could be real players in our contest as well. Like I said, I think this is the hardest year yet to pick a Top 5.

    -Jason "the fact that we are starting the contest early, in April, makes it even herder to know how buzz will go for these films" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  7. #7
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    I can't believe that we only have one voter so far picking Godzilla. Folks, I don't know if it will be in our Top 5 (I am debating voting for it) but I will be anyone right here, right now, that it will make at least $175 million at the boxoffice.

    -Jason "I am telling you, this is the hardest contest we have ever had. I can make a great case for at least 8 films and there may only be 1 or 2 mortal locks" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  8. #8
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    Lynchburg, VA
    I went with Captain America, Spider-man, How to Train Your Dragon, Transformers, and Million Ways to Die. Seth MacFarlane isn't my cup of tea, but a lot of people love summer comedies and Seth MacFarlane, so that's my number 5. I think it makes in into the 5 slot if the reviews are positive.

    The only stone-cold lock I see is How to Train Your Dragon. It wouldn't shock me if I went anywhere from 2 for 5 to 5 for 5.

  9. #9
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    Nashville, TN

    This will end up like my brackets

    Went with Captain 2, Train your Dragon 2, XMen, Transformers and Guardians of the Galaxy. I know nothing about Guardians other than Chris Pratt bulked up for the role and it has an Aug 1st release which means it probably will not have the legs necessary but there is always one surprise and despite McFarlane's movie having the lovely Ms. Theron this may be the summer a random comedy does not crack the top 5.

  10. #10
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    Southern Pines, NC
    Wow, those comic book movies. Can't vote for any of them. I quit reading comic books before I got into high school, and I have read none of them since then. Why see them in movies?

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarhead View Post
    Wow, those comic book movies. Can't vote for any of them. I quit reading comic books before I got into high school, and I have read none of them since then. Why see them in movies?
    You understand there is no requirement that you actually attend the films for which you vote, right? Ha!

    Look, I think the previous 3 Transformer movies were total junk and I would never pay a cent to watch them, but I voted for them and they each easily sailed into the Top 5 (not saying this year's one will). Sadly, quality and coherence are not prerequisites of huge boxoffice success.

    -Jason "new trailer for XMOFP came out today... stunningly cool. May change the way I end up voting in this poll" Evans

    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  12. #12
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    Ok voters... explain yourselves about this:

    Film #1 is a sequel to a movie that made $143 mil at the boxoffice and was a decent 72% on Rotten Tomatoes.
    Film #2 is a sequel to a movie that made $176 mil at the boxoffice and was stronger at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes.

    And yet, with 22 people voting so far, we have 6 votes for Film #1 (Rio 2) and just 1 vote for Film #2 (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes). Can someone explain this to me?

    -Jason "Rio is not even on my radar of possibilities for this contest while Apes is a strong contender to get one of my 5 votes" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Ok voters... explain yourselves about this:

    Film #1 is a sequel to a movie that made $143 mil at the boxoffice and was a decent 72% on Rotten Tomatoes.
    Film #2 is a sequel to a movie that made $176 mil at the boxoffice and was stronger at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes.

    And yet, with 22 people voting so far, we have 6 votes for Film #1 (Rio 2) and just 1 vote for Film #2 (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes). Can someone explain this to me?

    -Jason "Rio is not even on my radar of possibilities for this contest while Apes is a strong contender to get one of my 5 votes" Evans
    Timing, but on further consideration my reasoning may be way off.

    Rio 2 has a solid month as the only kid fare in the box office. That's a lot of time to make its money.

    However...

    Apes has only Guardians of the Galaxy, which is a big question mark at this point, following it as legitimate direct competition, and there's 3 weeks between Apes and Guardians. Also, Apes comes out in mid July while the previous Apes made $176mil as an August release. Finally, Rio 2 is coming out in April when the kids are still in school, so that month with the box office all to itself may not be as helpful as it could have been.

    So, um, yeah, Rio may have not been a good choice. Ah well...why break my perfect streak of never getting 5 out of 5?

  14. #14
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    Neighbors

    Interesting...

    I just got a series of screening invitations to Seth Rogan's new comedy Neighbors. Universal is starting "Word of Mouth" screenings for this flick a full month before it is due to be released in theaters. They will be holding 3 separate WOM screenings in Atlanta alone over the next month. That is a lot and is somewhat unusual for a summer film, many of which do not get screened until 2 or 3 days prior to opening. It says to me that Universal feels very confident that word of mouth will be quite strong on this flick. I suspect Universal thinks Neighbors has a chance to be this summer's raunchy comedy hit like Bridesmaids, Hangover, Wedding Crashers, Ted, and others have been in recent years.

    Hmmm...

    On a similar subject, Disney/Marvel are doing Captain America 2 screenings this week, a full week earlier than usual for a blockbuster. That also says to me that they think it is a high quality flick that will have strong buzz.

    -Jason "can a comedy slip into the Top 5 this summer? I thought the one that had a chance was Seth McFarlane's Million Ways... but maybe it is the other Seth who has the hit on his hands" Evans

    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  15. #15
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    Rats. I still don't like that the April movies are included in this. Makes it too long (and adds a true contender that will definitely dance around the edges). Given that, I'm going to do my top 5 both with and without Captain America (just because). Also, please note, I just hit send on my picks, but had accidentally made a mistake. So I'm correcting that with this.

    First my locks. There are three:

    1. How to Train Your Dragon 2. No other kid movies to compete with it. A first movie that was really loved, and a movie that has unbelievable visual images (that will thrive on the 3-D audience). This movie makes $250M for sure.

    2. Spider Man (reboot) 2. Every Spider Man has made over $225M. There's no competition for it for a while.

    3. Transformers. I HATE taking this movie, but these always do well. Always. They get the young boy audience, and all have made over $300M

    Now my semi-lock. Just 1

    4. Captain America. I was not going to vote for this, but then the reviews started coming in. It's at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. That's impressive. It will get good word of mouth. There is no competition for a month. The only thing hurting it is the fact that it a) comes out in April, so there's some uncertainty as to how many people go see it while school is still in and b) Captain America tends to be the most cerebral of the Marvel heroes, which may keep people away (my kids aren't dying to see Captain America, like they were for Iron Man). But I'm going with the strong reviews and the Avengers hangover effect. I really wish, though, that I didn't have to vote for this one.

    So now #5. There are three (and only 3) choices if you ask me: A Million Ways to Die in the West, Godzilla and Planet of the Apes. In the end, I went with Godzilla.

    Why? Three reasons. First (and most important) the trailer looks outstanding. I don't like watching trailers (I like being spoiler free), and I saw this one by accident, not knowing what it was about. It showed the guys jumping out of the airplane to try and attack it, with their point of view and terrified breaths. It was edge of your seat stuff. Second - history. The first Godzilla came out in 1998. It was truly awful. I mean awful, as in the first Hulk movie awful. Matthew Broderick was the lead, there was terrible writing and mediocre special effects at best. That awful movie made $136M. So, that's bad, right? Well, if you assume 3% annual inflation, then $136M in 1998 equates to $218M today. Oh, and this one is coming out in 3-D. That's another 15% at least. That's $250M. And did I mention the first one was awful? If this one is even remotely good (and the trailers look outstanding), then it could definitely make the $250M mark, which puts it in the Top 5. Third - Bryan Cranston. He wouldn't get involved in something awful.

    So my top 5 are: Captain, Spidey, Transformers, Dragons and Godzilla.

    If Captain America wasn't there, it would be really tough to try and pick the 5th, because I think Apes and West are going to finish very close to each other. I think I would have to go with Planet of the Apes. I think A Million Ways to Die in the West is going to break $200M. People love Seth, and they loved Ted, and it's a raunchy summer comedy with great actors. But there's a ceiling for shows like this. You can't take little kids (and enough people took little kids to see Ted), and the over 65 crowd won't go, so it's college kids through 60. The ceiling is about $210M, and that won't be enough to crack the top 5, or, I think, to beat either Godzilla or Apes.

    But, I will say this. Those 7 films will finish in the top 7. Period.

    What won't?

    1) Rio 2. Anyone picking this is throwing their chances away. The first one didn't do that well, and there's almost no buzz in my family to go see the next one (and the previews have looked thin at best). I think it will make $160-$200M at the most, and that won't be enough.

    2) X-Men. I'm stoked to see it, but the last X-Men movie got great reviews and only made $147M. Then The Wolverine came out last summer (also to decent reviews) and made $132M. It's hard to see a movie that now (clearly) has a limited fan base break the $225M barrier.

    3) 22 Jump Street or Neighbors. Not enough of a broad base demand for either.

    4) Edge of Tomorrow. Too much like Oblivion. Sci Fi Action thrillers don't make $150M (see District 9, Total Recall, Elysium)

    The top 7 (in some order) will be Captain America, Spiderman2, How to train your dragon, Transformers, Godzilla, Planet of the Apes, A Million Ways to Die.

    So what about sleepers? 22 Jump Street I would put in there. As JE also stated - the stars are huge, and the first one did well. I just think it will be slightly too raunchy to make it (plus not enough women will want to go). For me the real Sleeper isn't on the list. It's "Heaven is for Real." The book sold a ton, and this one plays to the (gigantic) religious audience out there. The Passion of the Christ made $300M. I don't think will get anywhere close, but if it gets good reviews, and the churches start encouraging their patrons to go see it, and it gets good word of mouth, it could easily exceed $100M, and stay in the theaters for a long time. Super Sleeper for sure....but has biggest upside.

    Finally, the movies I'm most excited to see are Captain America, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, A Million Ways to Die in the West, Edge of Tomorrow (Groundhog Day with guns) and Planet of the Apes.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    Rats. I still don't like that the April movies are included in this. Makes it too long (and adds a true contender that will definitely dance around the edges). Given that, I'm going to do my top 5 both with and without Captain America (just because). Also, please note, I just hit send on my picks, but had accidentally made a mistake. So I'm correcting that with this.

    First my locks. There are three:

    1. How to Train Your Dragon 2. No other kid movies to compete with it. A first movie that was really loved, and a movie that has unbelievable visual images (that will thrive on the 3-D audience). This movie makes $250M for sure.

    2. Spider Man (reboot) 2. Every Spider Man has made over $225M. There's no competition for it for a while.

    3. Transformers. I HATE taking this movie, but these always do well. Always. They get the young boy audience, and all have made over $300M

    Now my semi-lock. Just 1

    4. Captain America. I was not going to vote for this, but then the reviews started coming in. It's at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. That's impressive. It will get good word of mouth. There is no competition for a month. The only thing hurting it is the fact that it a) comes out in April, so there's some uncertainty as to how many people go see it while school is still in and b) Captain America tends to be the most cerebral of the Marvel heroes, which may keep people away (my kids aren't dying to see Captain America, like they were for Iron Man). But I'm going with the strong reviews and the Avengers hangover effect. I really wish, though, that I didn't have to vote for this one.

    So now #5. There are three (and only 3) choices if you ask me: A Million Ways to Die in the West, Godzilla and Planet of the Apes. In the end, I went with Godzilla.

    Why? Three reasons. First (and most important) the trailer looks outstanding. I don't like watching trailers (I like being spoiler free), and I saw this one by accident, not knowing what it was about. It showed the guys jumping out of the airplane to try and attack it, with their point of view and terrified breaths. It was edge of your seat stuff. Second - history. The first Godzilla came out in 1998. It was truly awful. I mean awful, as in the first Hulk movie awful. Matthew Broderick was the lead, there was terrible writing and mediocre special effects at best. That awful movie made $136M. So, that's bad, right? Well, if you assume 3% annual inflation, then $136M in 1998 equates to $218M today. Oh, and this one is coming out in 3-D. That's another 15% at least. That's $250M. And did I mention the first one was awful? If this one is even remotely good (and the trailers look outstanding), then it could definitely make the $250M mark, which puts it in the Top 5. Third - Bryan Cranston. He wouldn't get involved in something awful.

    So my top 5 are: Captain, Spidey, Transformers, Dragons and Godzilla.

    If Captain America wasn't there, it would be really tough to try and pick the 5th, because I think Apes and West are going to finish very close to each other. I think I would have to go with Planet of the Apes. I think A Million Ways to Die in the West is going to break $200M. People love Seth, and they loved Ted, and it's a raunchy summer comedy with great actors. But there's a ceiling for shows like this. You can't take little kids (and enough people took little kids to see Ted), and the over 65 crowd won't go, so it's college kids through 60. The ceiling is about $210M, and that won't be enough to crack the top 5, or, I think, to beat either Godzilla or Apes.

    But, I will say this. Those 7 films will finish in the top 7. Period.

    What won't?

    1) Rio 2. Anyone picking this is throwing their chances away. The first one didn't do that well, and there's almost no buzz in my family to go see the next one (and the previews have looked thin at best). I think it will make $160-$200M at the most, and that won't be enough.

    2) X-Men. I'm stoked to see it, but the last X-Men movie got great reviews and only made $147M. Then The Wolverine came out last summer (also to decent reviews) and made $132M. It's hard to see a movie that now (clearly) has a limited fan base break the $225M barrier.

    3) 22 Jump Street or Neighbors. Not enough of a broad base demand for either.

    4) Edge of Tomorrow. Too much like Oblivion. Sci Fi Action thrillers don't make $150M (see District 9, Total Recall, Elysium)

    The top 7 (in some order) will be Captain America, Spiderman2, How to train your dragon, Transformers, Godzilla, Planet of the Apes, A Million Ways to Die.

    So what about sleepers? 22 Jump Street I would put in there. As JE also stated - the stars are huge, and the first one did well. I just think it will be slightly too raunchy to make it (plus not enough women will want to go). For me the real Sleeper isn't on the list. It's "Heaven is for Real." The book sold a ton, and this one plays to the (gigantic) religious audience out there. The Passion of the Christ made $300M. I don't think will get anywhere close, but if it gets good reviews, and the churches start encouraging their patrons to go see it, and it gets good word of mouth, it could easily exceed $100M, and stay in the theaters for a long time. Super Sleeper for sure....but has biggest upside.

    Finally, the movies I'm most excited to see are Captain America, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, A Million Ways to Die in the West, Edge of Tomorrow (Groundhog Day with guns) and Planet of the Apes.
    That's interesting, since you actually picked Million ways to die in your top 5 and not Transformers...
    "There can BE only one."

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    Also, please note, I just hit send on my picks, but had accidentally made a mistake. So I'm correcting that with this.

    First my locks. There are three:

    3. Transformers. I HATE taking this movie, but these always do well. Always. They get the young boy audience, and all have made over $300M
    Quote Originally Posted by Highlander View Post
    That's interesting, since you actually picked Million ways to die in your top 5 and not Transformers...
    I'm assuming that was the mistake he mentioned.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I'm assuming that was the mistake he mentioned.
    Missed that. Sorry.
    "There can BE only one."

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    My votes:
    Cap2 – Personally thought the first one was the weakest of all the films in the Avengers universe, but the halo effect of the Avengers franchise, the early release with limited competition, and the heavy marketing push make me think this will be in the top 5.

    Spider Man 2 – hard to bet against this franchise, even with villain overkill (which likely means contrived plot)

    Dragon 2 – really light year for kids films. I think this will have a big box office take as there is not much else out there.

    Transformers whatever – I’m fairly confident in two things here: 1) this movie will suck and 2) it will make a ton of money.

    X-Men – this is the pick that I don’t feel good about. People love these movies, but it hasn’t translated to the box office very well. I’m worried about Apes without Franco, I don’t think Seth McFarlane can actually carry his own movie as a lead, I thought 21 Jump Street actually was pretty funny but 22 has risk of being a total dud. Godzilla is probably the one I will regret, but I have hard time seeing how this will be that much better than Pacific Rim/Battleship/other “exploding monster” movie (copyright Throaty whom I know can’t help himself and is reading this thread and getting furious.) So going with X-Men and crossing my fingers.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    I am at the point of having 8 contenders...

    The locks:
    Most of you have identified these-- Transformers 4, How To Train Your Dragon 2, and Amazing Spider-Man 2. I see each of them as mortal locks to make at least $240+ million.

    The contenders:
    I see all of these making at least $175 million with potential to be in the mid-200s, perhaps even higher if they really catch on with the public. Deciding which ones will is tremendously hard!

    Cap 2, Godzilla, XM: DOFP, Million Ways, and Dawn of the Apes.

    I think Guardians has a chance but it is opening too late in the summer for me to pick it.

    -Jason "I know everyone is loading up on Cap 2, but April is a tough time to release a $220+ mil blockbuster. The mid-week numbers will be half of what a comparible May-July release makes" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

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