MBB: Duke vs. Mercer, NCAAT R64 (3/21, 12:15, CBS)

[gumbomoop]

... not a slam on Tyler, he just fouls at a much higher rate than Seth did.

Going forward, I hope both Tyler and Amile can limit those silly fouls that put them on the bench in first half, and either limit their play or exit them from the game in the second half. Tyler is always on the edge between aggressive-but-smart D and dumb-over-aggressive play. And Amile seems amenable, or at least susceptible, to unthinking, foolish touch fouls. Such lack-of-focus fouls both get the opposing team more quickly to the FT line and limit K's substitution options in both halves.

Have to assume every little thing counts: not blocking out at FT line; not blocking out, period; fouling the 3-bomber; dumb, especially useless, fouls; dumb thunder-dumbs. Yes, players will make mistakes. IMO, 4 of the above 5 should never happen, and useless fouls but rarely. Alas.

[pfrduke]

This shouldn't be too shocking since about 30% of the available minutes are played by guys who average about 5 or more fouls/40. I'm not sure it's an adjustment issue since most of the culprits are at or below their career averages. Swapping Tyler for Seth probably gets you most of the way there. It's not a slam on Tyler, he just fouls at a much higher rate than Seth did.

I'm not sure exactly who all you are referring to, but the culprits, at least in terms of year over year change, are not Josh and Tyler. Tyler didn't take Seth's minutes at all - he plays almost exactly the same percentage of minutes as he did last year - and Josh's minutes shrunk substantially. Last year, an average Duke game saw 5.1 fouls from Josh and Tyler; this year, that number is 4.8.

Jabari basically took Mason's minutes and they foul at exactly the same rate, so no real difference there. Minutes for Quinn and Rasheed last year (together 62.7 mpg) are essentially matched by minutes for Quinn, Rasheed, and Andre this year (together 67.3 mpg) and the group collectively fouls at exactly the same per 40 rate.

Instead, there are two main culprits, one of which, I think, is fixable and one of which, I think, is not. Starting with the latter, Ryan's minutes from last year have gone to Amile and Marshall this year (Ryan and Amile last year averaged 29.7 mpg together*; Amile and Marshall average 30 mpg together this year). Amile and Marshall collectively commit about .8 fouls per 40 more than Amile and Ryan did in the same minutes. Those two are just a little foul prone, and I don't think that will likely change in the tournament run. Still, that difference only amounts to 2 fouls every 3 games, given the minutes they play.

*since we're looking at this on a season level, this is minutes per team game, not minutes per game played by the player

As to the second, you were right to flag the absence of Seth as a contributing factor, but it's not because Tyler is playing in his place. Seth's minutes, instead, have been taken by Rodney, and he is making a big difference in terms of fouling - he has 86 already while Seth had only 60 (in 2 more games). As to why I think this is curable, Rodney's fouling is dramatically different from his freshman year at MSU - there, he committed only 1.6 fouls per 40 (good for 33rd in the country); this year, that figure has almost doubled to 3.1. He's had 4 or more fouls in 11 games, including in 5 of our losses. Rodney is clearly capable of fouling less, and doing so could make a material difference (there's not necessarily causal correlation here, but we're 15-2 if he has 2 or fewer fouls and 11-6 if he has 3 or more). Getting him back to disciplined defense without fouling would be a big help.

There's also a non-player specific issue, which is that our opponents are shooting more free throws for each of our fouls - last year, 671 attempts on 645 fouls; this year, we've committed 14 more fouls to date but allowed 59 more free throw attempts. This could be from any number of factors: a) fewer offensive fouls; b) a greater percentage of shooting vs. non-shooting fouls; c) a greater percentage of non-shooting fouls in bonus/double bonus situations; or d) some combination of the above.

[gwlaw99]

So I just watched a couple of Mercer games on espn 3 from their conference tournament. Was not that impressed. Most of their offense is from wide open threes by getting zone defenses out of position. Pass, pass, pass, pass then shot wide open 3 pointer because zone can't get over in time. Obviously this won't work nearly as well against a switching man to man defense. They do have a lot of good three point shooters, but most contested 3s were missed. Guard the three point line well and we win. They have a pretty good high post/low post game, but I don't see it working on us. They have no one who can guard Jabari or Hood. Their point guard looks good, but nothing THAT special. Not remotely in the same ballpark as McCollum. I was starting to worry after reading this thread, but if we come in and play hard nosed defense on their guards and don't allow wide open 3s, we win handily.

[Atlanta Duke]

The commentator for our game tomorrow starts working the refs in this USA Today article on the changes for charge/block calls

Len Elmore, the television analyst and former Maryland standout, said North Carolina was the best team at taking charges. Then Duke started to take a lot of charges, he said, which was compensation for not having a lot of shot blockers.

"When Josh Hairston comes into the game, a guy drives to the basket, he is not going after the shot," Elmore said. "He is trying to step because he knows he can't block the shot. They don't have shot blockers on that team."...

Elmore said some players continue to flop, and with some success.

"They are out there," he said. "And some places you'll get the call."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...ating/6611865/

Wonder to where Len is referring with regard to "some places" where he thinks you get the charge call

[OldPhiKap]

The commentator for our game tomorrow starts working the refs in this USA Today article on the changes for charge/block calls

Len Elmore, the television analyst and former Maryland standout, said North Carolina was the best team at taking charges. Then Duke started to take a lot of charges, he said, which was compensation for not having a lot of shot blockers.

"When Josh Hairston comes into the game, a guy drives to the basket, he is not going after the shot," Elmore said. "He is trying to step because he knows he can't block the shot. They don't have shot blockers on that team."...

Elmore said some players continue to flop, and with some success.

"They are out there," he said. "And some places you'll get the call."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...ating/6611865/

Wonder to where Len is referring with regard to "some places" where you get the charge call

I hope he goes to the Big ## with the Twerps.

[Reilly]

I hope he goes to the Big ## with the Twerps.

If so, I picture some unsuspecting, polite Nebraska farm couple -- with their orderly life, and a sense of decorum and fair play -- sitting down to watch a hoops game next winter, and Len comes on talking conspiracy and mis-representing everything, and grumpily grumping along.

[dukelifer]

So I just watched a couple of Mercer games on espn 3 from their conference tournament. Was not that impressed. Most of their offense is from wide open threes by getting zone defenses out of position. Pass, pass, pass, pass then shot wide open 3 pointer because zone can't get over in time. Obviously this won't work nearly as well against a switching man to man defense. They do have a lot of good three point shooters, but most contested 3s were missed. Guard the three point line well and we win. They have a pretty good high post/low post game, but I don't see it working on us. They have no one who can guard Jabari or Hood. Their point guard looks good, but nothing THAT special. Not remotely in the same ballpark as McCollum. I was starting to worry after reading this thread, but if we come in and play hard nosed defense on their guards and don't allow wide open 3s, we win handily.

I also looked at them. The key is to play disciplined. This is a solid team that knows how to work as a unit. If Duke is business like and keeps focus- they should move on. But a team that shoots threes can always get back in a game -if you stop paying attention to D. This Duke team loses focus and it has been a weakness all year- not moving the ball and settling for quick jumpers- letting teams get to rim after establishing big leads etc . Quinn is particularly prone to this and as he goes- so goes the team. I am hoping for a very business like team that is a bit angry at not closing the deal at the ACC tourney. You cannot win the tourney unless their is a collective belief in one another. We will see if Duke has the mental toughness- the talent is there.

[Dukehky]

Is the pre game press conference for this one available anywhere?

[bronston22]

Great to be back to some college basketball that actually means something.

Regular season is a welcome distraction but meaningless except for a couple of UNC games. And the tourney is worse - those crowds were pathetic. Now let's play ball!!!

[The Gordog]

Thanks, Ichabod!

Your scouting report dovetails nicely with their statistical profile -- a team that shoots threes but doesn't draw fouls.

I don't like the fact that Mercer starts 5 seniors, but overall, they don't appear to be a bad matchup for Duke.

If you can not draw fouls you can not beat Duke, the way we are playing lately. Our problem is that when JP and Hood have foul issues they play matador D and don't drive in side as frequently.

[NSDukeFan]

Great to be back to some college basketball that actually means something.

Regular season is a welcome distraction but meaningless except for a couple of UNC games. And the tourney is worse - those crowds were pathetic. Now let's play ball!!!

I disagree strongly with every part of this post.

[Acymetric]

I disagree strongly with every part of this post.

There were quite a few empty seats in the ACC tournament, at least what you could see on TV. Do disagree with the rest of it although I certainly enjoy the NCAA tournament more than the regular season with respect to non-Duke games.

[dalmatians98]

Great to be back to some college basketball that actually means something.

Regular season is a welcome distraction but meaningless except for a couple of UNC games. And the tourney is worse - those crowds were pathetic. Now let's play ball!!!

Wow. Guess you missed the first Duke - Syracuse game -- and the second one, for that matter.

[brevity]

Great to be back to some college basketball that actually means something.

Regular season is a welcome distraction but meaningless except for a couple of UNC games. And the tourney is worse - those crowds were pathetic. Now let's play ball!!!

Ugh. Do you work for CBS or Turner Sports? Swooping in at the tail end of the season, after months of us being raised by ESPN, with your shiny NCAA contract. You're like some sort of trophy, young buck stepfather that invites us to call him "Dad." Well, you're not my father, you hear me?

(Unless you're Charles Barkley. Still not a role model, but I'd call him Dad.)

[Mike Corey]

Gameday quick-hitters:

This is going to be a tough, tough game.

Mercer is large, experienced, capable, and motivated. They play lots of guys and throw lots of weapons at you accordingly. They want to be the FGC of 2014.

I fully anticipate this will come down to the final four minutes.

[NashvilleDevil]

Gameday quick-hitters:

This is going to be a tough, tough game.

Mercer is large, experienced, capable, and motivated. They play lots of guys and throw lots of weapons at you accordingly. They want to be the FGC of 2014.

I fully anticipate this will come down to the final four minutes.

I guess I am a little more confident that Duke wins going away. I think we are going to see full beast mode Jabari and even though Mercer is experienced and deep they do not have anyone who can stop him.

[FerryFor50]

Gameday quick-hitters:

This is going to be a tough, tough game.

Mercer is large, experienced, capable, and motivated. They play lots of guys and throw lots of weapons at you accordingly. They want to be the FGC of 2014.

I fully anticipate this will come down to the final four minutes.

Mercer is nowhere near athletic enough to be this years FGCU.

[NashvilleDevil]

Mercer is nowhere near athletic enough to be this years FGCU.

I know it has zero bearing on anything but didn't Duke go on some ridiculous 30-0 run against FGCU in Cameron last year?

[CDu]

Gameday quick-hitters:

This is going to be a tough, tough game.

Mercer is large, experienced, capable, and motivated. They play lots of guys and throw lots of weapons at you accordingly. They want to be the FGC of 2014.

I fully anticipate this will come down to the final four minutes.

1. They aren't that large. They rotate 3 guys at center: two who are about Amile Jefferson's size (one is an inch taller) and one actual big (6'11", 250) guy who plays about as much as Plumlee plays. Aside from that, nobody else is over 6'6". They don't have short guards, but I'm not overly concerned about the length of the opposing guards. We'll have the size advantage at PF and SF, and Sulaimon, Dawkins, and Thornton aren't going to be bothered by being guarded by a guy an inch or two taller.

2. They are NOTHING like FGCU last year. FGCU was a young, brash, ridiculously athletic team that looked to run and dunk. These guys don't look to run and don't really attack the basket off the dribble. They are a 3pt shooting team.

3. The thing that makes them dangerous is their experience and their 3pt shooting. But in just about every other aspect of the game, we have a BIG advantage. Heck, even in terms of 3pt shooting, we're as good as they are.

We could certainly lose, as anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament. But we should absolutely win. And we should win by double-digits. Hopefully we play our game, stay out of foul trouble, and get a comfortable win.

[Mike Corey]

The comparison isn't to FGC literally, fwiw. Sorry for not clarifying above.