MBB: Duke vs. Mercer, NCAAT R64 (3/21, 12:15, CBS)

[gofurman]

A big problem we had in 2012 against Lehigh was Ryan Kelly being injured and unavailable to play. With a healthy Ryan Kelly, we don't lose to Lehigh.

Probably true. Can't know for sure. Ryan was out and that hurt a lot. However, point is I was calling that a "Ryan Kelly type team". I Should have been more clear. I meant that the team that lost to Lehigh was a little slow on D and reliant on 3 shooting. Better of me would have been to say our guard defenders then were ( I think ) Dawkins and Rivers and Seth Curry and Thornton. Thornton the only of those who I consider a truly strong defender.

Now we have Thornton and Matt jones ( though not many minutes) and Suliamon for D on the perimeter plus at the three and four Hood and Parker are long. Through Parker still gets lost in rotations I know. Hood is pretty good on D. Just w Hood OR Parker we probably beat Lehigh.

[Edouble]

We had the same team we have now against Vermont and let's just say we, um, underachieved that game this year...

It's also the same team we had against UNC, Pitt, NCState, Virginia, and Syracuse, who are all in the tournament.

Honestly, I take huge exception when you say that we are the "same team". I'm quite sure that we are a different and better team than we were in November.

[NashvilleDevil]

We had the same team we have now against Vermont and let's just say we, um, underachieved that game this year...

Wrong. Alex Murphy was on the team then. Different personnel and Duke will have the 3 best players on the floor Friday night.

[CameronDuke]

How about this then, tell me if it's fair or not- we have shown we can beat good teams and lose to pathetic teams. Mercer probably lays somewhere in between those two parameters. We will be dressing out the majority of players that beat those good teams and lost to those bad teams on Friday. Nothing in March is a given. What do you think of that?

[NashvilleDevil]

How about this then, tell me if it's fair or not- we have shown we can beat good teams and lose to pathetic teams. Mercer probably lays somewhere in between those two parameters. We will be dressing out the majority of players that beat those good teams and lost to those bad teams on Friday. Nothing in March is a given. What do you think of that?

I think Duke wins by 25+

[DukieInKansas]

I like that unc is in San Antonio - having a less hostile crowd in Raleigh for the game will be nice.

[dukelifer]

How about this then, tell me if it's fair or not- we have shown we can beat good teams and lose to pathetic teams. Mercer probably lays somewhere in between those two parameters. We will be dressing out the majority of players that beat those good teams and lost to those bad teams on Friday. Nothing in March is a given. What do you think of that?

This is all true. Duke will not take them lightly and Mercer could shoot lights out. Duke probably can beat them 80% of the time. But 20% is a chance. All you can do is play the games.

[Newton_14]

Ease it up a little guys.

Our guys just need to play well, and the rest will take care of itself. We have enough good defenders to keep one kid from killing us (especially if that kid is a guard or wing). As a 3 Seed you have to respect the opponent in the first round no matter what. I think our guys will get some much needed rest tonight and all day tomorrow then go to work Tuesday and come out Friday fresh and focused. They just need to play Duke Basketball. Thats all.

We need to get back to using the 3 pointer more. Did not do enough of that Friday or today. Too much driving. Let's get back to our bread and butter. We have the weapons.

[FerryFor50]

Mercer is #99 in Kenpom. 116 in offense. 103 in defense.

Best non-conference win? #87 Seton Hall. Langston Hall had 24 in that game. Mercer took 22 threes.

They did play Texas (#39) tough. Lost by 3. Hall had 22 in that game. Mercer took 30 threes.

Lost to Oklahoma (#29) by 14. Hall had only 7 points. Mercer took 28 threes.

Beat #90 Ole Miss. Hall had 17. Mercer took 20 threes.

Mercer appears to be a team that likes the 3. They shoot about as well as Duke (38%). Out of the 1963 shots they took, 721 were from three. That's 36.7% of their shot attempts. Duke attempts a three on 39% of their shot attempts. Mercer seems like they might be a mini-Duke.

They are 112th in the country in FT attempts. They are 9th in the country in defensive rebounding. But they are 177th in defensive rebounds allowed.

Hall averages 10.6 shots a game, but only shoots 39% from the field (ouch). Takes about 6 threes per game (60% of your top scorer's shots are from three? yeesh). Gets to the line about 4.5 times per game. He's a 6'4" senior who has gotten better each year, but Mercer doesn't really have much outside of him. I'm happier we got Mercer than Florida Gulf Coast (who got blown out by NC State).

If we want to compare to CJ McCollum the year Lehigh beat Duke, CJ averaged 21.9 ppg on 44% shooting. He averaged 20 shots per game, but only 6 were from 3. He was primarily a slasher. Hall seems to be a shooter.

[LobstersPinchPinch]

How about this then, tell me if it's fair or not- we have shown we can beat good teams and lose to pathetic teams. Mercer probably lays somewhere in between those two parameters. We will be dressing out the majority of players that beat those good teams and lost to those bad teams on Friday. Nothing in March is a given. What do you think of that?

I think that's fair. We recently lost to Wake Forest, which has a similar Kenpom profile to Mercer.

Your concern is probably shared by a decent number of us, and I suspect we'll be a popular pick for a 3-14 upset. On the other hand, the ESPN Giant Killer model says we're pretty safe, so I too expect that we'll win, but may be closer than some expect, given we can give up 80 to anyone.

[Saratoga2]

Not looking past anyone, but the Duke team has strengths and weaknesses that were guessed at during the start of the season and we have gotten a mixed bag of results since, which should be reflected in who starts and how the substitutions are made. Jabari was thought to be a star quality player and he has exceeded even what most of us had hoped for. His defense is still a little raw but his rebounding has been a big plus.

Rodney Hood was rumored as a really excellent talent who could score and defend. He too has lived up to the billing with the second highest scoring average and defensive capability the coach K praises. One thing to note is that he is thin and not a banger or rebounder.

Rasheed is one of our taller and quicker guards who can defend and can also slash although against a zone his value is reduced as his outside shot is only good not excellent. Another quick but thin guy but one with experience.

Amile was a little bit of an unknown going into the season. He has progressed a great deal with smart positioning for rebounds and now is developing scoring potential. Another guy who is on the smallish size for a power forward and one who can be pushed around by a bigger forward.

Josh is our most experienced forward with some heft but is short for his position and not particularly athletic. He has a tendency to foul at a high rate and big forwards can shoot over him.

Marshall was injured at the outset but has steadily improved in the role of providing a solid defensive presence for the team. Coach says he lacks stamina. I don't see that and when you have a guy more than 6'11" and 260# on a team with small quick guys, he obviously can be used against teams with bigger forwards and centers.

Andre has been a mystery to many of us. Coach pulls him quickly but when given a reasonable chance, he puts up points better than most other guards. Is he really that bad a defender when we watch guards blow by our other starting guards.

Quinn has also had ups and downs but now seems to be back in the grove. Better decision making and better shooting.

Tyler has been starting of late and is a defensive dynamo who also picks up fouls very quickly. Both he and Quinn are small and when on together reduce our chances of rebounding. Tyler doesn't put up many points except in rare occasions.

Then there is Matt who is a bigger guard who is by reputation a good defender but so far hasn't given us the scoring one might have expected given his reputation.

Finally, there is Semi, a gifted athlete with not much experience who has had little chance to shine but has hit shots when given a chance. He has the size and strength to have been brought along but sits on the bench.

Taken together we have a small quick team with a couple or stars but who have a weakness defending large forwards/centers. The team also shows signs of wilting at the end of games. Against Virginia a little more of Marshall, Andre and Matt might have made the game more interesting. Is coach K inflexible with his lineup? I for one hope he expands to a wider substitution policy and reacts when we are clearly getting it handed to us. (9 to 1 rebound over the last few minutes). Losing to Virginia was not the worst thing since they are really good, but not making adjustments going forward would be pretty sad.

[NashvilleDevil]

I think that's fair. We recently lost to Wake Forest, which has a similar Kenpom profile to Mercer.

Your concern is probably shared by a decent number of us, and I suspect we'll be a popular pick for a 3-14 upset. On the other hand, the ESPN Giant Killer model says we're pretty safe, so I too expect that we'll win, but may be closer than some expect, given we can give up 80 to anyone.

They lost to Wake in Winston Salem. That is a terrible loss but this team will be focused and I think being in the acc title game and having a shot to win late will have this team hungry for the tournament.

[hurleyfor3]

We all like Pomeroy, so by far the most likely 14/3 upset is NCCU/Iowa State, 78 vs. 23.

[MCFinARL]

Ease it up a little guys.

Our guys just need to play well, and the rest will take care of itself. We have enough good defenders to keep one kid from killing us (especially if that kid is a guard or wing). As a 3 Seed you have to respect the opponent in the first round no matter what. I think our guys will get some much needed rest tonight and all day tomorrow then go to work Tuesday and come out Friday fresh and focused. They just need to play Duke Basketball. Thats all.

We need to get back to using the 3 pointer more. Did not do enough of that Friday or today. Too much driving. Let's get back to our bread and butter. We have the weapons.

This is a bit ironic--arguing that Duke should drive less and shoot more threes? But I agree completely with you.

[J4Kop99]

game times should be out soon

[OldPhiKap]

Mercer is senior-dominated and won a big game on the road to win its conference tourney. This is a real tough team for us.

It is more about the experience than the position-by-position match.

[NSDukeFan]

Probably true. Can't know for sure. Ryan was out and that hurt a lot. However, point is I was calling that a "Ryan Kelly type team". I Should have been more clear. I meant that the team that lost to Lehigh was a little slow on D and reliant on 3 shooting. Better of me would have been to say our guard defenders then were ( I think ) Dawkins and Rivers and Seth Curry and Thornton. Thornton the only of those who I consider a truly strong defender.

Now we have Thornton and Matt jones ( though not many minutes) and Suliamon for D on the perimeter plus at the three and four Hood and Parker are long. Through Parker still gets lost in rotations I know. Hood is pretty good on D. Just w Hood OR Parker we probably beat Lehigh.

Wouldn't a "Ryan Kelly type team" be a great shooting, smart, fantastic help-side D team that consistently shows improvement has bigs that handle the ball well and spaces the floor really well?

[dukelifer]

Mercer is senior-dominated and won a big game on the road to win its conference tourney. This is a real tough team for us.

It is more about the experience than the position-by-position match.

Okay- I had to watch a game of theirs. They have one up on ESPN3. Watched 10 minutes or so. I can see why this could be a difficult team for Duke. They are disciplined and pass the ball well. They are not big time athletes- but they know how to play well together. They will give Duke fits if Duke thinks that they can out-athlete them. Duke needs to play smart but this will not be a cakewalk. Their D is not great- but solid.

[tbyers11]

According to NCAA.com

Game is on CBS

We haven't played an early game very often recently. Show up early for those with tickets.

[moonpie23]

i don't know if y'all noticed at the end of today's game....this team, and the coaching staff are pissed!!!!


it's good that they are angry...