Dr. Krzyzewski or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Stall

[ice-9]

I credit Scheyer and Singler with making it work, at last.

It was Nolan Smith that made it work primarily. He was often the guy holding the ball and making the play (often penetration to layup or kickout) during the last few seconds of a possession. It was beautiful stall ball, because often we'd ADD to the lead while eating clock.

[Kedsy]

Not even Dean Smith pre-shot clock teams went an entire game without attempting to score. It's not a winning strategy.

Well, they went an entire half.

[MChambers]

Maybe my dyspepsia is receding, but since 2009, Duke has been OK or better at running the delay offense. Prior to that, we never seemed to score when we were holding the ball; it was like the NFL "Prevent Defense" -- "Prevent Victory," we call it. I credit Scheyer and Singler with making it work, at last.

This year, comme ci, comme ca. When we have problems, we seem to go into meltdown at the 4-5 minute mark, which hasn't necessarily been because of the delay offense.

Gary

Funny, the single best stall ball I remember was against GT in the ACC tourney in 2004. Duke, led by Duhon, scored on more than 10 possessions. Just amazing.

Anybody else remember this or is my memory flawed?

[Newton_14]

I completely get the purpose-- up by a two points per minute remaining ( I really think three is more realistic), limit the number of posessions, thereby limit the opportunity for the opponent to come back. I'm just not sure, nor have I ever seen anyone do a just analysis, that it actually increases the likelihood of a team winning...given that team is already ahead based upon the way the two teams have played up to that point.

I think you give up a lot in stall ball:
You give up the initiative on offense;
and then give up the flow of your offense.
You give up the number of options available to score per possession in a longer shot clock.
You allow the other team to rest on defense for 30 seconds, likely giving them more energy for the offense they need.

I know it has "worked," but I'm not convinced that continuing to play just the way they had been wouldn't have won every one of those games. afterall getting the lead is required to execute the strategy. Like the prevent defense in football, I think it really is a "safe" end-of-game strategy that isn't safe at all compared to the whole of game strategy that got the lead to begin with.

I understand why you or any other reasonable person would question it, but for me, the comfort with the strategy comes from watching many many games over the years where a team had a solid lead in the final 5 to 6 minutes, only to throw it away and lose the game by not managing the clock at all, jacking up shots early in the clock, etc. In many of those cases, especially when it is an underdog with the lead (but not always), I have gotten the sense that winning the game was not enough, they wanted to bury the other team. That mindset ended up costing them the game. I can name two specific Clemson @ Unc games where that exact thing happened, which is incredible if you think about it. Both teams had a chance to end the O for Forever and threw it away hot dogging and not running clock when they had a big lead with 5 to go and could have easily sealed the deal by running the clock down to less than 5 every single possession. Unc had little to no chance of winning either game until Clemson got stupid.

Plus like someone else mentioned, we lost the lead in the first half even though we did not slow it down at all and were trying to score.

I just think there are several little and big things that are staples of K's program, that maybe we as fans take for granted, or maybe question, when it fact it helps lead to wins when all is said and done.

A few key items that come to mind:
1. Stall Ball- If you did a study, rare is the case we lose a game doing it, and we have won hundreds of games with it.
2. If the opponent scores with around 40-42 seconds or less remaining in the first half, the standing K rule is for our inbounder to delay the inbounds pass until the game clock has run down to 35 seconds. Insures we get the last shot
3. Similar to item 2. If we have the ball with 50-55 seconds remaining in the half, we take the first good shot available to insure we get a 2 for 1 situation and have the ball last before the half. (K is a big believer that the last possession prior to the half is hugely important and can give you great momentum heading into the 2nd half)
4. Always being aware of the shot clock. (Not talking about stall ball time. All points in the game prior to that). Rarely do you see a Duke team unaware of the shot clock such that it expires without them realizing they need to get a shot up. (This is mainly in road games as obviously the students help here by counting). How many times do you see other teams make this mistake?

I am sure there are countless others I am not remembering but those are 4 right off the top of my head. We are blessed!

[Newton_14]

Well, he turned the ball over with 4:30 to go, so he must have touched it then.

But putting that aside, soon after 5 minutes to go, UNC went into foul mode. Duke didn't take a shot in the last five minutes, only free throws. I can't tell (and don't remember) whether Jabari touched the ball during the 35 seconds preceding our second shot clock violation at 3:36, but unless he caught an inbounds pass that probably would have been more or less his only opportunity after his turnover at 4:30.

I made this same point texting with a guy today. A unc buddy had texted one our Duke buddies a tweet from our favorite guy (Bomani Jones) who was cracking that unc "held Duke without a FG for the last 6+ minutes" That is a total crock. Like you pointed out, a large percentage of those possessions ended up with Duke shooting free throws.

Plus and I don't know if this is good or bad but Duke is the ONLY program I know that does not explicitly go for showtime dunks after beating a desperation press with like less that 1;20 or so to go. We had numerous chances Saturday Night to do just that, and every time we pulled it back out and just let them foul us.

To be honest, while I did get nervous when we turned it over in the backcourt against the press, I never had the emotion that "OmG we are absolutely fixing to blow this game". Had the goal tend not happened and that 3 fell to cut it to I believe 6, I may have reached that emotion but if and buts and all that.

They never got closer than 8, so in my opinion we were never seriously threatened. Stall Ball did exactly what K wanted it to do. Got a win. We even covered the line.

[hustleplays]

I made this same point texting with a guy today. A unc buddy had texted one our Duke buddies a tweet from our favorite guy (Bomani Jones) who was cracking that unc "held Duke without a FG for the last 6+ minutes" That is a total crock. Like you pointed out, a large percentage of those possessions ended up with Duke shooting free throws.

Plus and I don't know if this is good or bad but Duke is the ONLY program I know that does not explicitly go for showtime dunks after beating a desperation press with like less that 1;20 or so to go. We had numerous chances Saturday Night to do just that, and every time we pulled it back out and just let them foul us.

To be honest, while I did get nervous when we turned it over in the backcourt against the press, I never had the emotion that "OmG we are absolutely fixing to blow this game". Had the goal tend not happened and that 3 fell to cut it to I believe 6, I may have reached that emotion but if and buts and all that.

They never got closer than 8, so in my opinion we were never seriously threatened. Stall Ball did exactly what K wanted it to do. Got a win. We even covered the line.

In my appropriately humble opinion, this has been a great thread on Stall Ball. I learned a lot. Thanks everyone!

My summary take:

1] Practice Stall Ball enough so that it becomes intuitive
2] Helps to have a really good PG and several very good ball handlers [duh, I know -- making a full list here]
3] Don't start it too early re the game clock [a function of extent of lead and possible remaining possessions]
4] Do it with good FT shooters
5] Execute it with a "want to win" mentality, not a "don't lose the lead" mentality
6] Have to remember to transition to high intensity defense -- different mindset each transition, not that easy to do
7] Against a good zone, start your final shot sequence earlier than 10"
8] Trust Coach K's infinite wisdom :-)
9] Now and then, maybe every third possession, or once or twice during the Stall Ball phase, attack on offense, to gain surprise and keep defenses wondering whether they will see Stall Ball or attack mode.
10] Care more about winning than athletic aesthetics [this is the one I have to become more mature about]

I can watch Stall Ball now with a more nuanced, less frustrated and desperate perspective. Thanks!

Go Duke!

[g-money]

And here's my issue with Stall Ball usage for this years team.

We don't always value the ball(Cook and 'Sheed), we can go several minutes without making shots(ND, Wake, Clemson, Carolina, etc.), we don't play smart defense consistently(all season), and we foul alot(all season).

We play our best when we are in "Attack Mode" on Offense. Having intensity on offense can be just as valuable as having intensity on defense. For this year's team, I think our best defense is our attacking offense.

If we agree that Stall Ball is a tool that has to be used in the right way to be effective, then just as giving a carpenter a scalpel and telling him "Go build a house" is bad idea, giving this team Stall Ball and expecting them to use it correctly isn't the best choice, either, IMO.

I'm in agreement with BlueDevilBrowns here. I totally get the logic and math behind stall ball, and most years I would endorse it wholeheartedly. I just don't think it's a good idea with this year's team, because this year's team has struggled (and in some cases, failed) at the end of several games in which it had a lead.

IMO, if, with 5 minutes left in Saturday's game, Coach K had told the team, "I want you to put your foot on their throat and beat them by 30," and it actually succeeded, it would've built confidence among the players about execution at the end of games. Could it have blown up in our face? Yes, I'll admit that's possible as well. But at that juncture it's a gamble that I, in my infinite(simal) wisdom, would have taken. There's no better way to build confidence than to give your rival an 82-50 beat down as you head into the postseason.

Now that we're approaching the part of the season where a team starts walking on a high wire without a net, I am praying to the basketball gods that if we go down, it doesn't happen through the evaporation of a late lead. On a positive note, we've had at least a few games now where we've experienced success by executing late in the game (The MD win comes to mind); hopefully our guys can channel these positive results when we undoubtedly encounter a close game or two in the weeks ahead.

[hillsborodevil]

If your team is winning and playing well, why change your tempo to stall ball? If it is not broke, don't fix it. Very simple logic to winning - score more points than the other team.

As others have noted - this year's team experiences long scoring droughts. Playing stall ball is like playing Russian roulette.

I remember an epic Duke/UNC game back in the 70's with Bill Foster at the helm. UNC started the game with the Four Corners. Score was something like 9 - 7 Duke at halftime. I disliked the four corners as a kid then, and I dislike stall ball now (a modern and mini four corners version).

Watching Dean and his Four Corners was compared to watching a snail's race. The NCAA had to institute the shot clock. Maybe a topic for another thread – but I hope the NCAA changes the shot clock for the men's league to 24 seconds.

[MChambers]

For some reason I can't quote the message above, but no, the game was not 9-7 at half. It was 7-0, and UNC had not hit the backboard.

Hence Kedsy's reference to UNC going an entire half without attempting to score. Jim Sumner has a great article on the game, but I can't find the link right now.

[gus]

As others have noted - this year’s team experiences long scoring droughts.

This an argument *for* the stall, not against.

[gus]

This an argument *for* the stall, not against.

Let me expand on that.

Scoring droughts happen with or without the stall. Using your Russian roullette metaphor: if you're forced to play Russian Roullette, doesn't it make sense to limit the number of times you have to pull the trigger?

People make reference to the football "prevent d". Stall ball is an offensive strategy: a more direct football analogy is running the ball when you're leading and time is short. You're still trying to gain yards, but the primary goals are to not turn over the ball and to eat clock.

[Matches]

It was Nolan Smith that made it work primarily. He was often the guy holding the ball and making the play (often penetration to layup or kickout) during the last few seconds of a possession. It was beautiful stall ball, because often we'd ADD to the lead while eating clock.

Nolan Smith was absolute gold in stall ball. Watching him dribble away 25-30 seconds off the clock, then score right as it approached zero, was just a dagger in the heart of the opposition. Duhon was, as someone noted upthread, really good at it too. Scheyer was good. Nolan was just an assassin, though.

Shame we never really got to see Kyrie in that role for a full season - he would've killed at it too.

[TampaDuke]

I've come to begrudgingly accept stall ball. That said, here's a few more thoughts on why I'm not a huge fan:

• It allows the officials back into the game.
• It makes it easier for the other team to trap since they know we will pass up nearly any shot other than a wide open dunk. There's a reason we always seem to end up in the corner or just over the half court line.
• Relatedly, nearly every other team knows exactly how to play defense against a stalling team to maximize turnovers, FTs from the wrong guy, etc. My sense is its easier to become an excellent defender of the stall than it is to become an excellent executor of the stall.
• In my sense, the stall mentality seems to impact our defensive mentality. I would love to see a statistical analysis comparing opponents' offensive efficiency while we are in a stall versus their offensive efficiency while we are not in a stall.
• It emphasizes the pressure/choke factor to a greater degree. You can almost see it on the players' faces, in their demeanor and with the body language, when the lead starts to slip away. Some might call it momentum, but I think it has a lot to do with the players becoming tighter as they realize they just let a large lead slip away. Compounding it is the demeanor of the opponent who just minutes before looked demoralized but now seems to have renewed vigor and a sense of purpose.

Anyways, just my two cents.

[BigWayne]

I don't like stall ball, but not just because it sometimes loses a game or makes it a lot closer than it should be.
I don't like watching it. If all I cared about was that Duke wins the game, then I can just tune it to Sportscenter
or read the morning paper the next day and see if they won. I watch Duke basketball games because I want to
see our guys playing basketball well and hopefully better than the other team. Watching a guy stand there
dribbling around for 30 seconds and then chucking up a bad shot is not what I tuned in to watch.

[Kedsy]

I would love to see a statistical analysis comparing opponents' offensive efficiency while we are in a stall versus their offensive efficiency while we are not in a stall.

I'm not sure this would be a fair comparison. If we're in the stall, the players have also presumably been instructed not to foul on defense and simply to try and make the other team take some time before they score. It's a lot harder to play D if you're not allowed to foul, and really the point of the stall is take the opponent's offensive efficiency out of the equation.

[Steven43]

Carolina had to change their defensive strategy: they began the desperate act of fouling to shorten Duke's possessions.

Yeah, well that deliberate act of fouling got the lead down dramatically in a very short span of time. If UNC had just hit a couple more shots and Duke had missed a few more free throws (we haven't shot free throws that well in a long time) this would have been a real nail-biter. It very easily could have happened. And if they had somehow managed to get it to overtime Duke would have likely lost since we had completely gotten out of our offensive flow. In my opinion stall ball is unnecessary, boring, and potentially self-defeating. For me it took the shine off a brilliantly-executed, exuberant, passionate performance.

[gus]

I don't like stall ball, but not just because it sometimes loses a game or makes it a lot closer than it should be.
I don't like watching it. If all I cared about was that Duke wins the game, then I can just tune it to Sportscenter
or read the morning paper the next day and see if they won. I watch Duke basketball games because I want to
see our guys playing basketball well and hopefully better than the other team. Watching a guy stand there
dribbling around for 30 seconds and then chucking up a bad shot is not what I tuned in to watch.

I don't disagree, but the guy making decisions is ultimately judged on wins and championships, not on how exciting individual games are. He'll choose the strategy that makes winning the most likely outcome.

[jv001]

Yeah, well that deliberate act of fouling got the lead down dramatically in a very short span of time. If UNC had just hit a couple more shots and Duke had missed a few more free throws (we haven't shot free throws that well in a long time) this would have been a real nail-biter. It very easily could have happened. And if they had somehow managed to get it to overtime Duke would have likely lost since we had completely gotten out of our offensive flow. In my opinion stall ball is unnecessary, boring, and potentially self-defeating. For me it took the shine off a brilliantly-executed, exuberant, passionate performance.

That basket interference call sure helped our cause. This team has had a hard time closing out games and I bet Coach K has scratched his head many times wondering whether to use the slow down game or not. GoDuke!

[gus]

Yeah, well that deliberate act of fouling got the lead down dramatically in a very short span of time. If UNC had just hit a couple more shots and Duke had missed a few more free throws (we haven't shot free throws that well in a long time) this would have been a real nail-biter. It very easily could have happened. And if they had somehow managed to get it to overtime Duke would have likely lost since we had completely gotten out of our offensive flow. In my opinion stall ball is unnecessary, boring, and potentially self-defeating. For me it took the shine off a brilliantly-executed, exuberant, passionate performance.

You're being melodramatic. Duke won by twelve. That's more than "a couple of more [made] shots" for carolina and a few more missed free throws for Duke. The closest they got was 8, after Paige's four point play. At that point there were 2:49 left. Without Carolina fouling there probably would have been 5 or 6 more possessions. I suppose there is a way they could have won, but you have to construct some pretty unlikely scenarios for that; mathematically possible, but very unlikely. And all of this is with Duke turning it over 6 times in the last 5 minutes!

I also dispute the notion that players forget how to play offense just because of stall ball. I think that's silly. You just don't see Duke have to come out of the stall very often... because the strategy works.

[Troublemaker]

One thing that could've helped in the last few minutes of the game was a double-team of Paige when he's coming off a down screen. That is, when's coming off a McAdoo pick for a catch-and-shoot, I'd like our big man to pop out and help challenge the shot, forcing Paige to dump the ball to a presumably rolling McAdoo. Paige moves too well off-the-ball for any of our guards to consistently chase him around picks. We already try to double-team him when he has the ball going into a ball screen. Might as well double him when he's running off picks for a catch-and-shoot as well.

Sorry, not a stallball post, but something I thought was relevant to how to protect a lead against a hot shooter down the stretch.