Phase VI: The ACC Tournament

[Newton_14]

As usual, it's instructive to look at other teams. I mean, do we really think that there's a reason that Coach K needs a senior leader to make the Final Four but Billy Donovan or Brad Stevens don't?

Also, can we stop listing health at the top of all these phase posts? I think most people understand that if a sports team's important players get injured it's going to be a problem for that team, but that doesn't make us list suspensions, transfers, or Durham getting hit by a meteor in these things.

It's a jinx thing. Every time we don't list it first a key player goes down with an injury. Bad omens and all that.

Agree that each team is different and having a strong Sr leader (we actually have one in Tyler) is not a prerequisite for making the FF. Does it help? Sure. Putting the ball in the hole and stopping the other team from doing so matters much more though.

[Troublemaker]

Has Duke improved its 2-pt shooting ability recently?

Check out Duke's 2-pt shooting percentages for the conference season, including the final five games. In each of these 5 games, we shot above the averages the opponent had been allowing for the season and in ACC play. In 4 of the games (not VaTech), we were well above the averages the opponent had been allowing.

Notre Dame	40.0 %
Ga Tech I	48.4 %
Clemson	35.3 %
Virginia	44.4 %
NCSU	52.4 %
Miami	51.6 %
FSU	25.6 %
Pitt	45.5 %
Syracuse I	44.4 %
Wake I	55.6 %
BC	58.3 %
Maryland	43.3 %
GaTech II	40.0 %
UNC I	53.7 %
Syracuse II	59.3 %
Va Tech	48.3 %
Wake II	58.3 %
UNC II	61.8 %

Also, if you break it down between 1st half of ACC season and 2nd half of ACC season:

* Duke shot 42.9% from 2-pt range in the 1st half of the conference season
* Duke shot 53.2% from 2-pt range in the 2nd half of the conference season

It is my belief that Duke has broken out of our 3-pt shooting slump during the second half of the UNC game we just played. If Duke goes back to shooting 3s like we had been AND this 2-pt shooting improvement is accurate and continues, then Duke's offense has never been stronger this season heading into postseason play.

[FerryFor50]

Has Duke improved its 2-pt shooting ability recently?

Check out Duke's 2-pt shooting percentages for the conference season, including the final five games. In each of these 5 games, we shot above the averages the opponent had been allowing for the season and in ACC play. In 4 of the games (not VaTech), we were well above the averages the opponent had been allowing.

Notre Dame	40.0 %
Ga Tech I	48.4 %
Clemson	35.3 %
Virginia	44.4 %
NCSU	52.4 %
Miami	51.6 %
FSU	25.6 %
Pitt	45.5 %
Syracuse I	44.4 %
Wake I	55.6 %
BC	58.3 %
Maryland	43.3 %
GaTech II	40.0 %
UNC I	53.7 %
Syracuse II	59.3 %
Va Tech	48.3 %
Wake II	58.3 %
UNC II	61.8 %

Also, if you break it down between 1st half of ACC season and 2nd half of ACC season:

* Duke shot 42.9% from 2-pt range in the 1st half of the conference season
* Duke shot 53.2% from 2-pt range in the 2nd half of the conference season

It is my belief that Duke has broken out of our 3-pt shooting slump during the second half of the UNC game we just played. If Duke goes back to shooting 3s like we had been AND this 2-pt shooting improvement is accurate, then Duke's offense has never been stronger this season heading into postseason play.

I would not be shocked if the 2pt trend coincided with Jabari Parker shooting fewer threes and jumpers and instead taking it inside more...

[Troublemaker]

Also, if you break it down between 1st half of ACC season and 2nd half of ACC season:

* Duke shot 42.9% from 2-pt range in the 1st half of the conference season
* Duke shot 53.2% from 2-pt range in the 2nd half of the conference season

Note: 1st half of conference season, we shot 130-for-303. 2nd half of conference season, we shot 157-for-295.

[Kedsy]

It is my belief that Duke has broken out of our 3-pt shooting slump during the second half of the UNC game we just played. If Duke goes back to shooting 3s like we had been AND this 2-pt shooting improvement is accurate and continues, then Duke's offense has never been stronger this season heading into postseason play.

I haven't really thought this through before posting, but is it possible the two-point shooting increase and the three-point shooting slump are somehow related? In the 2nd half against UNC, we only attempted 11 two-point shots, and made 6, which comes out to a 54.5%, which is good but a decent amount less than we shot on twos in the first half. And it was only 11 shots.

[Troublemaker]

I would not be shocked if the 2pt trend coincided with Jabari Parker shooting fewer threes and jumpers and instead taking it inside more...

Yes, Jabari definitely has a part in this. Looking at his game log, Jabari started going inside more with the NCSU game but did not finish inside all that well until midseason in conference when he started to finish inside REALLY well.

[sagegrouse]

Also, can we stop listing health at the top of all these phase posts? I think most people understand that if a sports team's important players get injured it's going to be a problem for that team, but that doesn't make us list suspensions, transfers, or Durham getting hit by a meteor in these things.

Wander -- When you prepare a Phase report (you'd be really good at it), you can leave out "1. Health." I'm not gonna take the blame if someone gets hurt.

Kindly,
Sage

[Troublemaker]

I haven't really thought this through before posting, but is it possible the two-point shooting increase and the three-point shooting slump are somehow related? In the 2nd half against UNC, we only attempted 11 two-point shots, and made 6, which comes out to a 54.5%, which is good but a decent amount less than we shot on twos in the first half. And it was only 11 shots.

I've thought something similar. My theory is the slump forced us to get better at 2-pt shooting out of necessity over the course of the past 7 games. I think if the slump is over, it doesn't necessarily mean 2-pt shooting will go back down again. I believe we have a chance to keep the gains made in 2-pt shooting during a difficult time for our outside shooting AND COMBINE that with a returned-to-normal outside shooting. Then we'll really be scary.

I could be wrong. It's something to keep track of during the ACC tournament.

[Troublemaker]

Updating our 2-pt % progress through the ACC tourney... there were some mixed results to say the least.

Against Clemson, we shot 45.2% from 2-pt range, which is better than the 35.3% we did against them the first time. BUT, I still felt we left some finishes on the table that we need to convert.

Against NCSU, we shot a tremendous 61.0%, up from the 52.4% we shot against them the first time.

Against UVA, however, 2-pt shooting was a huge problem. We only shot 32.7%, down from the 44.4% we made against them the first time.

Hopefully the bigger takeaway from the UVA game was that we were so willing to go inside (i.e. we consider that a strength of ours now) and not that we ended up shooting so poorly from there. Watching the postgame presser, Duke definitely felt like we should've finished better around the rim, and I'm inclined to agree. UVA is terrific defending at the rim, but we can do better. I think there may have been some "big game jitters" affecting some of our conversions in the paint. Especially Rodney, who is so good at backing down into the midpost for a short shot. That's his shot and he missed 3 or 4 of them. As a fan, I can only hope that this is a learning experience for our guys and that the next time we play a top 5 team in a big game, we finish better. Hopefully, we get the opportunity. Gotta beat Mercer first.