#1 Seed Predictions

[FerryFor50]

UVA likely misses out on a #1 seed with the loss to Maryland...

Unless they manage to win the ACC tourny.

[Wander]

They beat Kansas and Iowa in the Battle for Atlantis back in November ... since they, their schedule has not been that impressive -- they have only played three top 25 RPI teams since (at Syracuse and two games with Creighton) and were blown out of all three.

I think they COULD be a No. 1 seed -- if they win the Big East Tournament. But if they lose to Creighton a third time in the title game, it's hard to see them as a No. 1.

Of course, you can say that about a lot of teams ... would Arizona or Kansas be in the mix with a tourney loss?

Villanova's overall schedule has been really good. I don't think it matters that their best win was in November for seeding purposes. As you say, they lost 3 of their 4 toughest games, but they also never lost to the Wakes, BCs, or Marylands of the world. They'll get a 1 if they win the BE.

Arizona is not just in the mix - they're a lock for a 1 seed. Even if they lose in the first round of their conference tournament.

[WVDUKEFAN]

What is keeping us from a No. 1 seed is our lack of wins on the road. I dont think a No. 1 seed is out of the question if we win the ACC tourney outright. The only "true" No. 1 seed I see right now is Florida. I can't agree with Witchita State or Villinova. Regardless of where we are seeded, I think we have an excellent chance to win the tournament. We are peaking at the right time.

[TexHawk]

What is keeping us from a No. 1 seed is our lack of wins on the road. I dont think a No. 1 seed is out of the question if we win the ACC tourney outright. The only "true" No. 1 seed I see right now is Florida. I can't agree with Witchita State or Villinova. Regardless of where we are seeded, I think we have an excellent chance to win the tournament. We are peaking at the right time.

Man, I love message boards. 3 days ago some on here had already written your team off as likely to lose in the 1st weekend, after a loss to #121 RPI Wake. My team (Kansas), looked unbeatable in a 30 point home win the same night, and many here had effectively given up their pursuit of a #1 seed to them/us.

Fast forward to yesterday, you guys get a great win over a good UNC team at home. Kansas loses by 6 on the road to a bubble team, without the Big12 DPOY and likely #1 pick in the NBA Draft, and we are now "fatally flawed" (as someone else put it).

Sorry for the painting with the wide brush there. Trust me, KU fan boards are 1000 times worse.

[Kedsy]

Man, I love message boards. 3 days ago some on here had already written your team off as likely to lose in the 1st weekend, after a loss to #121 RPI Wake. My team (Kansas), looked unbeatable in a 30 point home win the same night, and many here had effectively given up their pursuit of a #1 seed to them/us.

Fast forward to yesterday, you guys get a great win over a good UNC team at home. Kansas loses by 6 on the road to a bubble team, without the Big12 DPOY and likely #1 pick in the NBA Draft, and we are now "fatally flawed" (as someone else put it).

Sorry for the painting with the wide brush there. Trust me, KU fan boards are 1000 times worse.

You didn't get the memo? You're exactly as good (or bad) as your last game. Sometimes your last half. Maybe just the last five minutes.

[Kedsy]

Arizona is not just in the mix - they're a lock for a 1 seed. Even if they lose in the first round of their conference tournament.

Why? If Arizona loses in the first round of the P12 tourney, that'll mean they have two losses in a row including one to either the #77 or #97 RPI teams. They'd be 7-4 since Ashley got hurt. Considering their full season of work, I could see them still being in consideration for a #1 seed, but (especially since the Committee does take injuries into account) why a lock?

[tommy]

Why? If Arizona loses in the first round of the P12 tourney, that'll mean they have two losses in a row including one to either the #77 or #97 RPI teams. They'd be 7-4 since Ashley got hurt. Considering their full season of work, I could see them still being in consideration for a #1 seed, but (especially since the Committee does take injuries into account) why a lock?

Well, even after yesterday's loss, they're still #1 in the RPI, and they've played the 7th toughest schedule in the land. If Wisconsin wins out and Arizona loses in the Pac-12 tourney, I could see Wisconsin ahead of them, but Villanova? I don't think they've played the schedule to justify it. And I know they're not supposed to consider these things, and maybe they wouldn't, but I think the committee might hesitate before making two of the four #1 seeds teams that many folks perceive (and, by the numbers, actually have) played significantly weaker schedules than the other top contenders.

[tommy]

Right now, we have solidified a 2 seed. If we lose early in the ACC tournament, we drop to a 3. If we win it, we have an outside claim at the last #1, though, frankly, we don't deserve it with 7 losses.
I think our most likely seed at this point is a 2. I'd welcome a 2 in Arizona's region, which is where I think we will end up. The NCAA loves a potential rematch like that.

I was there in Anaheim a few years ago when Arizona blew us out. I know, Derrick Williams had the game of his life, their other guys shot lights out, blah blah blah. I can tell you that Arizona had a HUGE contingent of fans in the arena and it was very loud and rowdy, all in their favor. It was a major, major source of energy for them in that game. Made for an absolute road game for us, and while I'd selfishly love the chance to see us play live in the tournament again, I think it would be a very tough environment again, and one that would significantly reduce our chances of winning the game.

[hurleyfor3]

You didn't get the memo? You're exactly as good (or bad) as your last game. Sometimes your last half. Maybe just the last five minutes.

Pretty sure no team in history has made the Final Four in the same year it gave up a 17-0 scoring run to Wake. Unc got routed at Wake in '93 but I don't think the Deacs ever dropped 17 straight.

[Wander]

Why? If Arizona loses in the first round of the P12 tourney, that'll mean they have two losses in a row including one to either the #77 or #97 RPI teams. They'd be 7-4 since Ashley got hurt. Considering their full season of work, I could see them still being in consideration for a #1 seed, but (especially since the Committee does take injuries into account) why a lock?

I refer you to this: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/nitty, most tellingly the record against RPI top 25. Note the Oregon loss isn't counted there yet. But even adding that, Arizona has the best overall resume right now - better than Florida's. This is supported by kenpom/sagarin/BPI, which all have Arizona as the best team. I don't think a loss can drop Arizona from the overall #1 to out of the #1 seeds completely, especially with the context of Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, and Kansas all losing games in the last week.

I probably shouldn't have said a lock, as if Wisconsin, Villanova, and Kansas all win their conference tournaments, then I guess Arizona could get knocked down with a bad loss due to an injury-related rationale. Maybe. But I'd say there's a 90%+ chance that Arizona, Florida, and Wichita get three of the 1 seeds.

[tommy]

I refer you to this: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/nitty, most tellingly the record against RPI top 25. Note the Oregon loss isn't counted there yet. But even adding that, Arizona has the best overall resume right now - better than Florida's. This is supported by kenpom/sagarin/BPI, which all have Arizona as the best team. I don't think a loss can drop Arizona from the overall #1 to out of the #1 seeds completely, especially with the context of Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, and Kansas all losing games in the last week.

I probably shouldn't have said a lock, as if Wisconsin, Villanova, and Kansas all win their conference tournaments, then I guess Arizona could get knocked down with a bad loss due to an injury-related rationale. Maybe. But I'd say there's a 90%+ chance that Arizona, Florida, and Wichita get three of the 1 seeds.

I agree with you. And I'd say there's a 100% chance that Florida and Wichita get two of the #1's.

[slower]

We are peaking at the right time.

This...not. It was one game. Let's revisit this after the ACCT.

[Olympic Fan]

Well, even after yesterday's loss, they're still #1 in the RPI, and they've played the 7th toughest schedule in the land. If Wisconsin wins out and Arizona loses in the Pac-12 tourney, I could see Wisconsin ahead of them, but Villanova? I don't think they've played the schedule to justify it. And I know they're not supposed to consider these things, and maybe they wouldn't, but I think the committee might hesitate before making two of the four #1 seeds teams that many folks perceive (and, by the numbers, actually have) played significantly weaker schedules than the other top contenders.

And I remind you that a year ago, Duke was the No. 1 RPI team with the No. 1 SOS in the country ... but Duke lost late games on the road against Virginia and Maryland, then lost in our first game of the ACC Tournament -- and not only got a No. 2 seed, but got seeded against the toughest No. 1 in the bracket.

I think Arizona is in better shape this year, but only because there just aren't as many contenders for No. 1 out there. Certainly if they get a win or two in the Pac 12 tourney they are a 1 -- and they may get it anyway, since there just isn't anybody else ... Duke? Kansas? Michigan State? The teams we think are best just keep losing.

Florida is the only team that looks and feels like a real No. 1. I know Wichita will get a No. 1, but I'd love to be bracketed with them. I wouldn't mind being in the bracket with Villanova if they get a one.

[throatybeard]

I want no part of the West. We've never done very well out there.

[vick]

You didn't get the memo? You're exactly as good (or bad) as your last game. Sometimes your last half. Maybe just the last five minutes.

Don't forget to factor out all the things you've done well in the game in your analysis.

[IBleedBlue]

If Duke gets a #2 seed, I would not want it to be either in Florida's bracket or Wichita State's bracket. Florida is rolling over teams with their senior laden team. At this time, they are the best team in the country. But again, NCAA tournament is a one and done. So, they could get bounced on a bad day. Losing to wichita state will be fodder for all the critics and UNC fans.
I would like Duke to be either Arizona's bracket or the remaining first seed's bracket OR get a #1 seed itself.

[Kedsy]

Well, even after yesterday's loss, they're still #1 in the RPI, and they've played the 7th toughest schedule in the land. If Wisconsin wins out and Arizona loses in the Pac-12 tourney, I could see Wisconsin ahead of them, but Villanova? I don't think they've played the schedule to justify it. And I know they're not supposed to consider these things, and maybe they wouldn't, but I think the committee might hesitate before making two of the four #1 seeds teams that many folks perceive (and, by the numbers, actually have) played significantly weaker schedules than the other top contenders.

Well, the original statement was even if Arizona loses in the first round of the Pac 12 tournament they'd be a lock, and that's what I was questioning. That's different from just losing in the tournament, that would mean an embarrassing upset to possibly the team ranked RPI #97. Arizona already has two losses to teams in the 40 to 60 range, would its resume still be best if it added a loss to a team ranked around 100? Especially with the injury issue?

Also, I've said this many times, and I know the committee supposedly does do this, but I don't understand it: why should we treat schedule strength as if it's something different from the RPI? It's already in there -- schedule comprises 75% of the RPI. True, the straight SOS component is "only" 50% of the RPI, but that just makes it worse, because the SOS component simply looks at the win/loss record of the teams you've played.

To illustrate the significance of my latter point, consider the following two schedules:

Team A plays the following ten teams (ranks are Pomeroy):

#12 Tennessee
#17 Iowa
#19 Oklahoma State
#35 Florida State
#38 St. Johns
#42 Stanford
#44 Xavier
#46 Maryland
#49 Georgetown
#50 Nebraska

Team B plays the following ten teams:

#271 Chattanooga
#263 Portland State
#259 Radford
#248 Incarnate Word
#242 Coastal Carolina
#227 Northern Colorado
#219 VMI
#218 Winthrop
#209 Hampton
#200 Utah Valley State

So Team A plays ten top 50 teams, including three teams in the top 20. Team B plays ten sub-200 teams, including three teams sub-250.

If you get past the part where these teams only played 10 teams and the rest of the country played 30, the RPI formula would rank these two teams as having played the third and fourth best schedules in the land, both better than Arizona's. As you might guess, since I hand-picked the opponents, Team B would have a slightly better SOS than Team A (at least according to the RPI).

In fact, my hypothetical Team B would not only have a better SOS than Arizona, it would also have a better SOS than every team in the country except Kansas and Wisconsin. Probably be undefeated, too, which would almost certainly give them one of the top four RPIs. Should we make 'em a #1 seed?

[Wander]

Arizona already has two losses to teams in the 40 to 60 range, would its resume still be best if it added a loss to a team ranked around 100?

No, but it would still be one of the four best.

In fact, my hypothetical Team B would not only have a better SOS than Arizona, it would also have a better SOS than every team in the country except Kansas and Wisconsin. Probably be undefeated, too, which would almost certainly give them one of the top four RPIs. Should we make 'em a #1 seed?

I completely agree with your point about the flaws in the RPI and the "double counting" of SOS. But I don't understand the relevance to Arizona - they have a very strong strength of schedule by other measures (and are the #1 team in the advanced metrics, not just RPI).

[Kedsy]

No, but it would still be one of the four best.

Possibly, but a lock? If they lose to Utah or Washington in the first round, I wouldn't be confident about their seed until I saw what everyone else did.

And I know you stepped back from the "lock" statement, which is why my last post quoted tommy's post and not yours. I don't disagree with you that no matter what, Arizona has a pretty good shot at a #1.

I completely agree with your point about the flaws in the RPI and the "double counting" of SOS. But I don't understand the relevance to Arizona - they have a very strong strength of schedule by other measures (and are the #1 team in the advanced metrics, not just RPI).

It doesn't have anything to do with Arizona. I was addressing tommy's apparent separation of RPI and SOS and using that to make a broader observation.

[Atlanta Duke]

If Duke gets a #2 seed, I would not want it to be either in Florida's bracket or Wichita State's bracket. Florida is rolling over teams with their senior laden team. At this time, they are the best team in the country.

Reading the proposed brackets is a great way to torment yourself this time of the year

The current USA Today bracket has Duke as a #3 seed in the South with Florida as the #1 and Kansas as the 2 seed

That works as a worst case scenario for me