"Fourth Quarter" Woes

[bedeviled]

There's too much derived data to put here, but here are the averages for Duke and Opponents, by game half, for the 2007-present time period.

	Opp1H	Opp2H	Duke1H	Duke2H
Pts In Paint	13.71	18.86	13.43	11.43
Off T/O	5.86	8.43	5.00	4.86
2nd Chance	4.14	9.86	6.29	6.14
Fast Break	5.14	4.14	2.00	0.86
Bench Pts	5.43	10.71	9.00	9.29
2FGA	19.57	21.57	18.14	16.86
2P Pts	18.29	24.29	18.00	13.71
3FGA	8.71	7.57	9.57	12.29
3P Pts	7.29	9.43	8.14	10.29
FTA	9.29	18.00	9.71	15.14
FT Pts	7.00	13.71	7.86	10.43
OR	5.00	7.14	5.57	6.14

	Opp1H	Opp2H	Duke1H	Duke2H
2FG%	47.90	56.19	47.90	40.31
3FG%	29.54	45.52	29.90	27.48
eFG%	46.20	57.88	46.61	41.40
FT%	79.77	76.10	81.01	71.32
TS%	58.70	72.72	61.11	58.28
%3P	30.70	26.01	33.78	41.96
FTA/FGA	34.72	64.16	37.01	53.39
%Pts 2P	57.97	50.71	51.89	39.83
%Pts 3P	20.90	20.25	24.14	29.41
%Pts FT	21.13	29.04	23.96	30.76
%2P Paint	73.93	79.69	76.11	81.61
%Pts Paint	44.08	39.41	39.16	33.22
%Pts PaintFT	65.21	68.45	63.12	63.98
%OR	28.80	39.94	31.90	30.04

[bedeviled]

And, finally, the information that I found most pleasing to the eye:
Shot attempts.jpgSource of Points.jpg

	1H	2H	Opp 1H	Opp 2H
Duke	34.00	34.43	32.57	47.43
Kansas	32.43	32.00	32.00	34.29
MSU	26.86	36.57	38.71	34.57
UNC	36.14	34.14	39.86	39.43
UK	27.14	40.00	33.29	40.14
UCLA	29.40	35.80	36.20	43.60
UL	29.67	33.33	35.17	36.00
Uconn	33.00	32.00	36.00	35.00
UF	34.25	31.25	36.75	34.75

Phew, I'm glad to get rid of all this stuff. Knock yourself out.

[Kedsy]

Phew, I'm glad to get rid of all this stuff. Knock yourself out.

Wow, thanks for all your work in this thread. Really amazing.

Also, I would add that teams that are behind tend to shoot more threes to try to cut into the lead, so even the fact that Duke attempted more threes in the 2nd half of games that we lost (apparent from one of your fabulous tables) doesn't necessarily prove that those are responsible for the loss.

I totally agree with you that this data is a lot less meaningful because we don't know if our wins in the period exhibited the same patterns we see in the losses. I also think that since (as I mentioned in my earlier post) we've been outscored in our final loss every year but one going all the way back to 1988 (the only exception being 1993), the eight year (minus one) time period seems arbitrary. I assume it was chosen originally because the period 2007 to 2014 (excluding 2010, which Mr. S explicitly did in his analysis) was arguably the worst 7 year period for NCAA tournament success since Coach K got here, and presumably Mr. S was looking for a pattern that might explain why that was.

[bedeviled]

Also, I would add that teams that are behind tend to shoot more threes to try to cut into the lead

Yeppers. In addition, the FTA disparity is rather small and likely fully explained by the fact that trailing teams foul to extend the game...it doesn't seem to support that we were less aggressive at getting to the line. The reason I like the info in post #62 is that it looks apparent to me that the Duke offense in the 2nd half is comparable to the first half.