Coach Calipari in trouble?

[luburch]

Cal is a good coach, not a great coach.

His one national championship came with contributing players who were not recruited by him, and 2 guys who had out of this world character and defensive abilities in the Brow and MKG. Anthony Davis is also a top 15 player in the NBA in his second year, and was incredible in college. Teague played well enough not to screw the rest of the team up.

His 1 and done way of doing things, which people thought was a template, is not realistic. MKG and AD were the 4th and 5th offensive producers on that championship team, they were the best at everything else, but they were dependent on really solid sophomores/juniors for the majority of their scoring.

Look at his Memphis team that went to the Finals, CDR was their best player, and he was a senior (i think, but he was definitely an upper classmen). Rose was really good, but that team ran through Chris Douglas Roberts.

Cal is overrated. He whines, nothing is his fault, and I think kids are starting to realize that if they aren't Rose or Davis, that they're not going to look good to scouts in Cal's system. The SEC is atrocious at basketball and he hasn't dominated it like anyone thought he would. He also just seems like a scum bag, who is going to to get what he deserves when he leaves to go coach the train-wreck that is the New York Knicks and their hilariously bad owner, James Dolan. Have fun Cal.

I dislike Cal as much as the next guy, but I would say that Wall and Cousins impressed scouts while they were at Kentucky.

[Dukehky]

I dislike Cal as much as the next guy, but I would say that Wall and Cousins impressed scouts while they were at Kentucky.

Boogie and John Wall had comparable talent levels to those two, so they were implicitly included in that assessment, but you're correct. I'm still very glad that they were looking forward to playing Duke while they were still in the Elite Eight in 2010, that was not a match-up I wanted to see.

[COYS]

I still maintain that it is far too early to call Cal's time at UK anything but a success. Yes, last year was not good at all, but that team was full newcomers that were replacing a championship squad from the year before AND dealt with Noel's injury. Pushing Harrow and Wiltjer out the door was a mistake, in my opinion, but Cal probably would not have had the Harrison twins in the bag without Harrow out of the picture (I'm less clear why it was necessary to push Wiltjer out). However, he can recover from that mistake pretty easily if the bulk of this team returns for a sophomore (or, in the case of Poythress, junior) season. The 2010 team's success was bolstered by Cal convincing Patterson not to transfer or go pro. The 2012 team featured a sophomore Terrence Jones who returned after a solid but not quite lottery-worthy freshman season for a Final Four squad. Most schools would be completely happy with an Elite 8, a Final Four, and a Natty followed by a rebuilding year or two, especially if one of those rebuilding years included a catastrophic injury to one of the best players. UK's rebuilding year this season will still likely see them in the NCAA tournament, albeit with an uphill battle to make a deep run.

I think there is a good chance that the Harrison twins end up going pro regardless of what's best for them just because it seems from afar that they have not bought in to Cal's coaching at all. And Randle is a lock to leave as a probably top 5 or at least top 8 pick. However, losing the Harrison twins might be addition by subtraction, even if losing Randle would really hurt. If everyone else comes back, the new crop of super-frosh will be surrounded by veteran talent. There might be some sore nerves from the way this season has gone down, but winning cures a lot of chemistry issues.

I think Cal has handled this season and last season pretty poorly. Personally, I'm no fan of the guy. However, while Pat Forde makes some really good criticisms of how Cal conducts himself, we'd have to see a few more "disastrous" seasons such as the past two to conclude that he's lost his mojo as a coach.

[TexHawk]

I still maintain that it is far too early to call Cal's time at UK anything but a success.

I think the bulk of your post is fair, but where do expectations come into play, if at all? Yes, most schools would take his last 4 years. But last year's team was preseason #3 (I think), and they tumbled all the way to the NIT. This year's team was preseason #1, with 40-0 talk, staring directly at a 7 seed today. I'm not so sure as many schools would line up for that.

[Mike Corey]

With apologies to Walter White, Coach Calipari is not in trouble, he is the trouble.

[oldnavy]

I still maintain that it is far too early to call Cal's time at UK anything but a success. Yes, last year was not good at all, but that team was full newcomers that were replacing a championship squad from the year before AND dealt with Noel's injury. Pushing Harrow and Wiltjer out the door was a mistake, in my opinion, but Cal probably would not have had the Harrison twins in the bag without Harrow out of the picture (I'm less clear why it was necessary to push Wiltjer out). However, he can recover from that mistake pretty easily if the bulk of this team returns for a sophomore (or, in the case of Poythress, junior) season. The 2010 team's success was bolstered by Cal convincing Patterson not to transfer or go pro. The 2012 team featured a sophomore Terrence Jones who returned after a solid but not quite lottery-worthy freshman season for a Final Four squad. Most schools would be completely happy with an Elite 8, a Final Four, and a Natty followed by a rebuilding year or two, especially if one of those rebuilding years included a catastrophic injury to one of the best players. UK's rebuilding year this season will still likely see them in the NCAA tournament, albeit with an uphill battle to make a deep run.

I think there is a good chance that the Harrison twins end up going pro regardless of what's best for them just because it seems from afar that they have not bought in to Cal's coaching at all. And Randle is a lock to leave as a probably top 5 or at least top 8 pick. However, losing the Harrison twins might be addition by subtraction, even if losing Randle would really hurt. If everyone else comes back, the new crop of super-frosh will be surrounded by veteran talent. There might be some sore nerves from the way this season has gone down, but winning cures a lot of chemistry issues.

I think Cal has handled this season and last season pretty poorly. Personally, I'm no fan of the guy. However, while Pat Forde makes some really good criticisms of how Cal conducts himself, we'd have to see a few more "disastrous" seasons such as the past two to conclude that he's lost his mojo as a coach.

I think Cal is being "measured" against Cal. The talk of 40-0 was just silly for a lot of reasons, one of which is when you fall way short of it, you look... well silly. If Cal were a tad bit more "humble" I doubt the critics would be as loud... but when you talk the talk and fail to walk the walk... watch out!

[COYS]

I think the bulk of your post is fair, but where do expectations come into play, if at all? Yes, most schools would take his last 4 years. But last year's team was preseason #3 (I think), and they tumbled all the way to the NIT. This year's team was preseason #1, with 40-0 talk, staring directly at a 7 seed today. I'm not so sure as many schools would line up for that.

You make a good point. I think Duke and Kansas are two of the few places where such a trajectory would not be coveted. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that most Duke fans would take 2002-2009, when Duke was very good, made the tourney every year, reached one Final Four, but never won a title, over Cal's tenure at UK, even though that run included a title. Similar, Kansas fans such as yourself would probably not trade the Jayhawk's success since the title in 2008 for Cal's up and then down tenure at UK.

However, we still haven't reached the end of this season. The Wildcats have the talent to rebound. And while last season was a disaster, that team lost almost everyone from a title team AND lost Nerlens Noel to a knee injury midseason. I think Coach K is a better coach than Cal, but it's still fair to wonder if Duke's 2007 team would have fallen out of the tournament entirely if Josh McRoberts or Jon Scheyer had been lost to a season ending injury in the middle of the year.

This season has been better than last season for UK even if it hasn't lived up to expectations. However, my primary point is not that the Wild Cats haven't disappointed or that Cal hasn't shown some serious personality flaws as a leader, but that it's too early to bury Kentucky for this season and waaay to early not to think that Cal is destined for a tailspin. It wasn't but a month ago that many Duke fans were writing the eulogy for UNC's season, and they've managed to turn things around. It's getting late, but Kentucky will be in a good position to salvage this year and create some momentum going into next year.

That would mean that Cal has had three great years at UK with a title, one down year that included an injury to a key player, and one good but not great year that fell short of expectations. All in all, that is not the profile of a coach that is in bad shape or a program that is about to go into a tailspin.

[tommy]

You make a good point. I think Duke and Kansas are two of the few places where such a trajectory would not be coveted. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that most Duke fans would take 2002-2009, when Duke was very good, made the tourney every year, reached one Final Four, but never won a title, over Cal's tenure at UK, even though that run included a title. Similar, Kansas fans such as yourself would probably not trade the Jayhawk's success since the title in 2008 for Cal's up and then down tenure at UK.

However, we still haven't reached the end of this season. The Wildcats have the talent to rebound. And while last season was a disaster, that team lost almost everyone from a title team AND lost Nerlens Noel to a knee injury midseason. I think Coach K is a better coach than Cal, but it's still fair to wonder if Duke's 2007 team would have fallen out of the tournament entirely if Josh McRoberts or Jon Scheyer had been lost to a season ending injury in the middle of the year.

This season has been better than last season for UK even if it hasn't lived up to expectations. However, my primary point is not that the Wild Cats haven't disappointed or that Cal hasn't shown some serious personality flaws as a leader, but that it's too early to bury Kentucky for this season and waaay to early not to think that Cal is destined for a tailspin. It wasn't but a month ago that many Duke fans were writing the eulogy for UNC's season, and they've managed to turn things around. It's getting late, but Kentucky will be in a good position to salvage this year and create some momentum going into next year.

That would mean that Cal has had three great years at UK with a title, one down year that included an injury to a key player, and one good but not great year that fell short of expectations. All in all, that is not the profile of a coach that is in bad shape or a program that is about to go into a tailspin.

How can you create momentum going into next year when the entire roster -- or a huge percentage of the minutes, scoring, rebounding, etc. -- turns over every year? If they lose Randle, the Harrisons, and maybe Cauley-Stein and/or James Young (and who knows, maybe even Poythress if he's decided he's had enough) then they're starting over again. That's the intent - to start over each season. Along with all the other problems such a "system" creates, it's kinda hard to create momentum that way, isn't it?

[roywhite]

How can you create momentum going into next year when the entire roster -- or a huge percentage of the minutes, scoring, rebounding, etc. -- turns over every year? If they lose Randle, the Harrisons, and maybe Cauley-Stein and/or James Young (and who knows, maybe even Poythress if he's decided he's had enough) then they're starting over again. That's the intent - to start over each season. Along with all the other problems such a "system" creates, it's kinda hard to create momentum that way, isn't it?

Yes; it's really Cal's model that is not working well, and presents a real challenge to implement successfully every year. It's beginning to seem like the 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons are the norm; plenty of young talent, but lacking in offensive structure and consistency. Perhaps an Anthony Davis doesn't come along very often.

The real downfall to this model at Kentucky would be if elite prospects stop buying into it, or at least exercise more care in where they choose to spend their pre-NBA time. Perhaps they might realize the magnitude of starting from scratch every year, and prefer to choose a program that has a solid base of talent, and could use one or two elite prospects to get them into championship contention.

Kentucky and Cal seemed like a great marriage, but the passion may be waning. Lexington has seen ugly divorces before.

[Kedsy]

I'd be willing to bet that most Duke fans would take 2002-2009, when Duke was very good, made the tourney every year, reached one Final Four, but never won a title, over Cal's tenure at UK, even though that run included a title.

I think I'd take that bet regarding most Duke fans. A lot of Duke fans seem to measure the success or failure of any particular year's edition by what happened in Duke's last game (although some of them magnanimously give a pass to teams that make the Final Four and lose). In addition, the time period you mention includes 2007, which I'd guess most Duke fans wouldn't consider a qualitative improvement over last year's UK team.

Obviously, "most" does not mean all. There are of course many Duke fans who feel otherwise (including me), but I'm pretty sure if you offered Duke fans five years of Sweet 16s and one Final Four on the one hand against an Elite Eight, a Final Four, a national champ, and three early NCAA losses/NIT flame-outs, most Duke fans would take the latter.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think I'd take that bet regarding most Duke fans. A lot of Duke fans seem to measure the success or failure of any particular year's edition by what happened in Duke's last game (although some of them magnanimously give a pass to teams that make the Final Four and lose). In addition, the time period you mention includes 2007, which I'd guess most Duke fans wouldn't consider a qualitative improvement over last year's UK team.

Obviously, "most" does not mean all. There are of course many Duke fans who feel otherwise (including me), but I'm pretty sure if you offered Duke fans five years of Sweet 16s and one Final Four on the one hand against an Elite Eight, a Final Four, a national champ, and three early NCAA losses/NIT flame-outs, most Duke fans would take the latter.

As silly as it sounds, most programs and coaches will be measured on NCAA Championships, followed by overall wins, followed by FF, followed by...I don't know (and I'd argue that overall wins and FF #s are debatable). But I agree with you: most Duke fans would taken Kentucky's last 5 years over Duke's 2002-2009 years. I'm not sure where I lie. On the one hand, with 5 titles, Coach K gets another title by 2010 but, on the other hand, he probably doesn't reach 907 until a year or two later and Jim Boeheim is very close to Coach K's win total.

20 years from now, titles and FFs will be remembered over consecutive tourney appearances.

[JasonEvans]

Most schools would be completely happy with an Elite 8, a Final Four, and a Natty followed by a rebuilding year or two, especially if one of those rebuilding years included a catastrophic injury to one of the best players. UK's rebuilding year this season will still likely see them in the NCAA tournament, albeit with an uphill battle to make a deep run.

What is this "rebuilding" thing you speak of? As a Duke fan, I am not familiar with it. Kansas, Syracuse, Michigan State and a few other elite schools agree that this is a foreign concept to them. And, as others have mentioned, how do you rebuild when your model calls for massive roster turnover every single year. And, of course, Kentucky does not think they should ever have a rebuilding year.

Now, I agree with the notion that Cal is far from being "in trouble" at Kentucky. While I am sure many folks are disappointed in how the past 2 seasons have gone (I agree that this season is not lost yet, not by a longshot) I doubt there is much of a cry to get rid of Cal. But, I sorta wonder if he is getting sick of babysitting one-and-done kids who are not invested in the long-term growth of his program and who are difficult to coach because their eye is constantly on mock draft projections.

It may be that the lack of success of his recent teams breaks the one-and-done mold for him. It would appear that several of the kids expected to turn pro right away this season will instead stick around. Young, Randle, and Cauley-Stein would appear to be the only certain first-rounders likely to head into the 2014 draft. Poythress will probably to be back for his junior season as the Harrisons, Johnson, and Lee turn into sophs. It is not at all outlandish to suggest that Cal will have a nice mix of young studs (Lyles and Towns) to go with some experienced players next season. Plus, next year's class includes several guys who simply aren't close to being one-and-done talent. Ulis and Booker may form the backbone (and backcourt) of future Kentucky teams down the road.

Anyway, I hate projecting good things for Cal and Kentucky so I'll be rooting for Poythress and the Harrisons to turn pro and leave Kentucky again young and thin next season. They can't lose too much for me taste!

-Jason "I do sorta wish someone would step up and challenge Florida a bit in the SEC -- there are just so few programs in the SEC that I admire... blech!" Evans

[COYS]

What is this "rebuilding" thing you speak of? As a Duke fan, I am not familiar with it. Kansas, Syracuse, Michigan State and a few other elite schools agree that this is a foreign concept to them. And, as others have mentioned, how do you rebuild when your model calls for massive roster turnover every single year. And, of course, Kentucky does not think they should ever have a rebuilding year.

Now, I agree with the notion that Cal is far from being "in trouble" at Kentucky. While I am sure many folks are disappointed in how the past 2 seasons have gone (I agree that this season is not lost yet, not by a longshot) I doubt there is much of a cry to get rid of Cal. But, I sorta wonder if he is getting sick of babysitting one-and-done kids who are not invested in the long-term growth of his program and who are difficult to coach because their eye is constantly on mock draft projections.

It may be that the lack of success of his recent teams breaks the one-and-done mold for him. It would appear that several of the kids expected to turn pro right away this season will instead stick around. Young, Randle, and Cauley-Stein would appear to be the only certain first-rounders likely to head into the 2014 draft. Poythress will probably to be back for his junior season as the Harrisons, Johnson, and Lee turn into sophs. It is not at all outlandish to suggest that Cal will have a nice mix of young studs (Lyles and Towns) to go with some experienced players next season. Plus, next year's class includes several guys who simply aren't close to being one-and-done talent. Ulis and Booker may form the backbone (and backcourt) of future Kentucky teams down the road.

Anyway, I hate projecting good things for Cal and Kentucky so I'll be rooting for Poythress and the Harrisons to turn pro and leave Kentucky again young and thin next season. They can't lose too much for me taste!

-Jason "I do sorta wish someone would step up and challenge Florida a bit in the SEC -- there are just so few programs in the SEC that I admire... blech!" Evans

Duke fans are spoiled when it comes to "rebuilding, that's for sure! Not to prolong this debate too much more, but I think we agree far more than we disagree. I specifically said most schools would be happy with UK's most recent seasons because I know that some schools like Duke, Syracuse, Mich St etcetera would not necessarily trade one rebuilding year for a title (of course, they might).

Also, I predicated Cal's future success on the possibility that UK might retain a fair share of players who don't go to the nba. If that happens, then we can correctly call this year a rebuilding year for UK.

Also, in terms of the word "momentum," I think that's huge for Calipari in getting the next batch of recruits. If he struggles two or three seasons in a row, the luster of his one and done philosophy will wear off.

Anyway, i, like you, Jason, don't like predicting success for UK. However, I do think that he'll probably end up with a solid team next year that could potentially have quite a veteran presence.

[johnb]

Anyway, i, like you, Jason, don't like predicting success for UK. However, I do think that he'll probably end up with a solid team next year that could potentially have quite a veteran presence.

What's annoying is that they'll likely get something like a 7 seed but then STILL stand a decent chance to get to the final four. Watching a few of their games, they look like a train wreck, but the individual parts do appear talented and fully capable of winning 4 games in a row.

[Des Esseintes]

What's annoying is that they'll likely get something like a 7 seed but then STILL stand a decent chance to get to the final four. Watching a few of their games, they look like a train wreck, but the individual parts do appear talented and fully capable of winning 4 games in a row.

I don't know. At this point in the season, Parcells is right. You are what your record says you are. I'd hate for Duke to get them for a second round game, for all the obvious reasons, but they are not a very good basketball team. The Final Four is generally reserved for very good basketball teams, exceptions notwithstanding.

[tommy]

It may be that the lack of success of his recent teams breaks the one-and-done mold for him. It would appear that several of the kids expected to turn pro right away this season will instead stick around. Young, Randle, and Cauley-Stein would appear to be the only certain first-rounders likely to head into the 2014 draft. Poythress will probably to be back for his junior season as the Harrisons, Johnson, and Lee turn into sophs. It is not at all outlandish to suggest that Cal will have a nice mix of young studs (Lyles and Towns) to go with some experienced players next season. Plus, next year's class includes several guys who simply aren't close to being one-and-done talent. Ulis and Booker may form the backbone (and backcourt) of future Kentucky teams down the road.

I too was actually considering the idea that perhaps Calipari is realizing now that they key to that championship team was the presence of a couple of more experienced guys in support roles to the star frosh. And that he is adjusting his recruiting strategy accordingly, choosing to mix in an obvious multiyear player like Marcus Lee, who had no shot to play this year behind Cauley-Stein, Randle, and Johnson, meaning Lee will be back for probably several more years, assuming he doesn't transfer. And when I looked at his 2014 haul, well Tyler Ullis is 5'8" tall, meaning he's not going pro early. Devin Booker is a nice shooter, but ranked around #30 or so, which is not where most of your one-and-dones are coming from. He doesn't have the athleticism at that position. So maybe Cal is intentionally stocking his roster with more multi-year guys, huh?

But then I realized: Wait a minute. Dakari Johnson was the #9 recruit in the RSCI. He was tied for that spot with James Young. (the Harrisons were 5 and 6, hard as it is to believe now). Though Johnson hasn't played like it, he can easily be a one-and-done. Daniel Orton, anyone? Young can easily do it too. But, moreover, Tyler Ullis was not Cal's first choice, or his second, at point guard in the 2014 class. His 1 and 1A were Emmanuel Mudiay, who is certainly a one-and-done talent, and Tyus Jones. Devin Booker wasn't his first choice on the wing. His first choice was the superstud wing Stanley Johnson out of California, who is certain as one can be when still in high school that he's going to be one and done.

So if Cal had his way, getting the recruits he wanted -- meaning Mudiay and Johnson, along with Karl Towns and Trey Lyles, his team would be full of one and done's next year, same as he's been doing. I don't think there's been a change in philosophy or recruiting focus at all. He's all in on the every year turnover thing, if he can get the recruits in there to execute the plan. Unfortunately for him, when the kids aren't as good as advertised and don't go pro as he expected them to, he ends up like Lucy and Ethel at the candy factory conveyor belt.

[porkpa]

If I had to pick a half dozen teams to make it to the Elite Eight, even with all their underachieving this year, UK would still be among them.

[YmoBeThere]

Well, if we have to take a 7 year period, I'm taking '87-'94.

As for 2002-2009 versus Kentucky's recent run, I'll take ours anytime. That's likely because I know what happened in 2010.

[jv001]

Well, if we have to take a 7 year period, I'm taking '87-'94.

As for 2002-2009 versus Kentucky's recent run, I'll take ours anytime. That's likely because I know what happened in 2010.

While brushing up this morning on overnight posts, I was thinking about the '87-'94 Duke years. They were some of my favorite years rooting for Duke. Many FFs and two National Championships.
2002-2009 would probably be next followed by the 1960-1968 years. GoDuke!

[JasonEvans]

While brushing up this morning on overnight posts, I was thinking about the '87-'94 Duke years. They were some of my favorite years rooting for Duke. Many FFs and two National Championships.
2002-2009 would probably be next followed by the 1960-1968 years. GoDuke!

I hate to spin this thread off in a different direction, but I'd like my "favorite Duke 7 year span" to include 1999. We put a massive beatdown on darn near every team we played. It was soooo much fun to watch! So, I'm taking 1998-2005 as my favorite span of Duke domination. Some hugely successful regular seasons, several Final Fours (even if they ended badly) and the national title in 2001.

-Jason "now, back to the discussion at hand..." Evans