2014 ACC Player of the Year

[Wahoo2000]

I don't think this argument is a strong reason for being Player of the Year. For one thing, it was that kind of argument that (until recently) had CJ Fair and his okay-but-not-great stat line in serious conversation for Player of the Year. For another thing, UVa having the best record doesn't make them the best team given the unbalanced schedule.

You definitely need to be the best player on your own team. But being on the winningest team in the conference doesn't mean you need to be in the discussion for PoY.

I think Brogdon should absolutely be in the discussion for 1st Team All-ACC. I just don't think he should be PoY.

Heck, I'm a UVa fan, and I agree Brogdon shouldn't be in the mix for PoY.

I WILL say, that the unbalanced schedule thing is starting to wear on me. So we played only middle and lower tier squads for the teams we played twice. For argument's sake, lets say that you give us home dates with Pitt and Duke to replace two of those others (already played Pitt and Duke on the road). Is there ANYBODY that thinks we'd go any worse than 1-1 in those games? 15-1 or 14-2 (heck even if we dropped both and were 13-3), it all amounts to the same thing - beat Syracuse tomorrow to secure the 1 seed in the conference tourney. When you're talking the difference between the toughest and weakest conference schedule, you're talking about (most likely) a 1-2 game difference in the loss column MAX. If (and it is a BIG "if", I grant you) we beat 'Cuse tomorrow, we'll finish 2-3 games clear of everyone else anyway, rendering the "schedule" argument pretty pathetic IMO.

[vick]

Heck, I'm a UVa fan, and I agree Brogdon shouldn't be in the mix for PoY.

I WILL say, that the unbalanced schedule thing is starting to wear on me. So we played only middle and lower tier squads for the teams we played twice. For argument's sake, lets say that you give us home dates with Pitt and Duke to replace two of those others (already played Pitt and Duke on the road). Is there ANYBODY that thinks we'd go any worse than 1-1 in those games? 15-1 or 14-2 (heck even if we dropped both and were 13-3), it all amounts to the same thing - beat Syracuse tomorrow to secure the 1 seed in the conference tourney. When you're talking the difference between the toughest and weakest conference schedule, you're talking about (most likely) a 1-2 game difference in the loss column MAX. If (and it is a BIG "if", I grant you) we beat 'Cuse tomorrow, we'll finish 2-3 games clear of everyone else anyway, rendering the "schedule" argument pretty pathetic IMO.

I think you're underselling UVa here. I was looking at scheduling discrepancies a few weeks ago, and I think the math works out* such that there's absolutely no way the scheduling difference is anywhere near two games in expected wins compared with a (presumably perfectly fair) double round robin, and frankly one game is a pretty big stretch. Using Pomeroy, UVa would be expected to win 14.0 wins against their schedule. In a true round robin, 21.5, which translates to 13.8 over an 18 game schedule. So basically, UVa was probably gifted something like 0.2 expected wins by the unbalanced schedule. Who cares.

* Maybe I'll start a thread about this this weekend since no Duke game, but the gist is, I think the evidence suggests the effect of unbalanced scheduling is hugely overblown.

(I'll spare the board another pro-Brogdon rant)

[vick]

(I'll spare the board another pro-Brogdon rant)

No I won't. With the game today, Brogdon moves up to #8 nationally in Pomeroy's POY rankings--Jabari is #2, Patterson #7, and McDaniels #10, so the ACC is very well-represented. Of course, his stats are for the whole year rather than the ACC season specifically, so Patterson is probably higher than I think most people would say he is for the ACC race.

[gofurman]

. How McDaniel doesn't get more love I really don't understand. That guys HAS to be the most underrated player in the league, and maybe the nation. He's in the top 10 in a TON of catagories, and leads Clemson in almost every major statistical category.
Given the precedent that was set last year (you don't need to be on a great team to win), I really don't see how he isn't in the top 2-3 guys to win. I could see Parker or maybe Warren ahead of him, but solely on play between the lines, and not PR/national pub, McDaniel HAS to be up there.

This. He is the ONLY player in the entire country to lead his team in 4 categories of points..rebounds..blocks..and steals. How the same guy can lead a team in blocks rebounds and steals is unreal. Steals? And blocks? That's two difft types of players Only guy in entire country to do this. Insane. We saw it first hand. And he is second in assists on the team!

He better be first team all ACC. Team schmeam. The dude is awesome. Here's a good way to put it - I am very glad he doesn't play for UNC. They would be nearly unstoppable if he were helping Paige and McAdoo.

That's my soap box. Heard one of bilas or someone say he ought to be first or second all- America. I can see it

[Slackerb]

This. He is the ONLY player in the entire country to lead his team in 4 categories of points..rebounds..blocks..and steals. How the same guy can lead a team in blocks rebounds and steals is unreal. Steals? And blocks? That's two difft types of players Only guy in entire country to do this. Insane. We saw it first hand. And he is second in assists on the team!

He better be first team all ACC. Team schmeam. The dude is awesome. Here's a good way to put it - I am very glad he doesn't play for UNC. They would be nearly unstoppable if he were helping Paige and McAdoo.

That's my soap box. Heard one of bilas or someone say he ought to be first or second all- America. I can see it

It really doesn't matter how much better you are than your teammates, that's basically a false comparison. For example, yes, he leads his team in steals, but that only puts him at 16th in the ACC, below all other candidates being discussed except Parker. Rebounds, he's 7th in the ACC. The only category I can find that leads in is blocks. I'm sorry, but you don't deserve to win ACC player of the year if the only thing you are top 5 in the conference in is blocked shots. He's an amazing player, a freak athlete, etc., but he's not an ACC player of the year.

Does anyone think that Warren sealed it up with last night's 41 point performance. If you missed it, you missed one of the best offensive displays in a very long time. He's scoring tons of points unselfishly and efficiently. The scary part is that he's getting better. Over the last five games he's averaging 29.6 PPG and shooting 56.4%.

If he continues this pace, I don't think it's a close race anymore.

[JasonEvans]

If he continues this pace, I don't think it's a close race anymore.

Fixed it for you.

Warren's play of late has eliminated any tension in this race. If Parker goes off in a truly ridiculous way -- 30+ points, 15+ rebounds -- against UNC then maybe it raises some questions again, but I think this sucker is over and done with.

You know, it is a real tragedy that State could not put a better team around TJ. He is such a major talent and a huge force to be reckoned with, simply unstoppable at times and so efficient. If his teammates were even moderately competent, State could easily be a top 25 team nationally. What a waste... sigh.

-Jason "think of how different State's season would look right now if they had not gaacked up the Syracuse and UNC games -- they'd be 10-7 in the conference and 20-10 overall and would be in the NCAA tourney right now" Evans

[FerryFor50]

Fixed it for you.

Warren's play of late has eliminated any tension in this race. If Parker goes off in a truly ridiculous way -- 30+ points, 15+ rebounds -- against UNC then maybe it raises some questions again, but I think this sucker is over and done with.

You know, it is a real tragedy that State could not put a better team around TJ. He is such a major talent and a huge force to be reckoned with, simply unstoppable at times and so efficient. If his teammates were even moderately competent, State could easily be a top 25 team nationally. What a waste... sigh.

-Jason "think of how different State's season would look right now if they had not gaacked up the Syracuse and UNC games -- they'd be 10-7 in the conference and 20-10 overall and would be in the NCAA tourney right now" Evans

The timing was bad for State. They got Warren at the tail end of CJ Leslie, Lorenzo Brown, Richard Howell, etc careers... Warren got caught smack dab in the middle of a rebuild from Lowe's recruit transition to Gottfried's.

[vick]

Fixed it for you.

Warren's play of late has eliminated any tension in this race. If Parker goes off in a truly ridiculous way -- 30+ points, 15+ rebounds -- against UNC then maybe it raises some questions again, but I think this sucker is over and done with.

You know, it is a real tragedy that State could not put a better team around TJ. He is such a major talent and a huge force to be reckoned with, simply unstoppable at times and so efficient. If his teammates were even moderately competent, State could easily be a top 25 team nationally. What a waste... sigh.

-Jason "think of how different State's season would look right now if they had not gaacked up the Syracuse and UNC games -- they'd be 10-7 in the conference and 20-10 overall and would be in the NCAA tourney right now" Evans

I'm surprised you feel that way even if you think Warren indisputably deserves it. Some of the ACC historians can correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't the only two winners to come from losing teams Len Bias and Erick Green? I'd be happy if you're right and voters recognize that even great players can't carry teams alone, but I'm not sure that's the case. I guess State can make that somewhat moot by beating BC, but 9-9 doesn't scream "excellence" either.

To me there are four players you can make solid cases for, in no special order: Warren, the best scorer; McDaniels, the most balanced (if you wonder how State would be without Warren, think about how bad Clemson would be without McDaniels--I'm not sure they'd average 50 points--and Clemson is better than State); Parker, who's played the best over the course of the whole season (which is not how I think the ACC award should work, but it's not completely unreasonable), and Brogdon, the most efficient of the bunch and on the best team. And hey look, those four have the highest PERs, by far, in the ACC among players averaging 25 MPG (what I would consider full-time starter). Not the way I picked the four, but nice to see some stat support.

[CDu]

I'm surprised you feel that way even if you think Warren indisputably deserves it. Some of the ACC historians can correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't the only two winners to come from losing teams Len Bias and Erick Green? I'd be happy if you're right and voters recognize that even great players can't carry teams alone, but I'm not sure that's the case. I guess State can make that somewhat moot by beating BC, but 9-9 doesn't scream "excellence" either.

To me there are four players you can make solid cases for, in no special order: Warren, the best scorer; McDaniels, the most balanced (if you wonder how State would be without Warren, think about how bad Clemson would be without McDaniels--I'm not sure they'd average 50 points--and Clemson is better than State); Parker, who's played the best over the course of the whole season (which is not how I think the ACC award should work, but it's not completely unreasonable), and Brogdon, the most efficient of the bunch and on the best team. And hey look, those four have the highest PERs, by far, in the ACC among players averaging 25 MPG (what I would consider full-time starter). Not the way I picked the four, but nice to see some stat support.

Of course, if you look at those PERs, it appears that this group of four is really a group of one (Warren, at 30.5) and a second group of 3 (McDaniels at 27.5, Brogdon at 26.1 and Parker at 26.0). The next best is, interestingly enough, Talib Zanna, at 22.8.

Of course, there are substantial limitations to PER. For example, it would appear to overrate forwards/centers (Miller from GT is 6th and the aforementioned Zanna in 5th; Paige and Ennis don't crack the top-15; only one true guard in the top-17). So that's probably not the fairest of metrics, either.

[vick]

Of course, if you look at those PERs, it appears that this group of four is really a group of one (Warren, at 30.5) and a second group of 3 (McDaniels at 27.5, Brogdon at 26.1 and Parker at 26.0). The next best is, interestingly enough, Talib Zanna, at 22.8.

Of course, there are substantial limitations to PER. For example, it would appear to overrate forwards/centers (Miller from GT is 6th and the aforementioned Zanna in 5th; Paige and Ennis don't crack the top-15; only one true guard in the top-17). So that's probably not the fairest of metrics, either.

Yeah. The tilt toward big men in PER is well-known, though in some sense it doesn't trouble me--if a football metric said that quarterbacks are more valuable than right guards, is it a problem with the metric? No, it's just intrinsically the way the sport works. You could argue that basketball is just intrinsically biased toward forwards and centers. I dunno, maybe, maybe-not. But no question, guards, especially non-scoring point guards, don't generally get as high PERs as centers. The other major issue with PER is that it has no accounting for defense beyond rebounds, blocks, and steals, but clearly the fact that UVA, Clemson, and Duke are all much better defensive teams than State ought to have some impact on how you evaluate players. I'm with you on the limitations of PER, I just thought it was an interesting coincidence, not what was driving my thinking.

[FerryFor50]

Yeah. The tilt toward big men in PER is well-known, though in some sense it doesn't trouble me--if a football metric said that quarterbacks are more valuable than right guards, is it a problem with the metric? No, it's just intrinsically the way the sport works. You could argue that basketball is just intrinsically biased toward forwards and centers. I dunno, maybe, maybe-not. But no question, guards, especially non-scoring point guards, don't generally get as high PERs as centers. The other major issue with PER is that it has no accounting for defense beyond rebounds, blocks, and steals, but clearly the fact that UVA, Clemson, and Duke are all much better defensive teams than State ought to have some impact on how you evaluate players. I'm with you on the limitations of PER, I just thought it was an interesting coincidence, not what was driving my thinking.

To be fair, TJ Warren isn't really a big. He's a combo wing...

[CDu]

Yeah. The tilt toward big men in PER is well-known, though in some sense it doesn't trouble me--if a football metric said that quarterbacks are more valuable than right guards, is it a problem with the metric? No, it's just intrinsically the way the sport works. You could argue that basketball is just intrinsically biased toward forwards and centers. I dunno, maybe, maybe-not. But no question, guards, especially non-scoring point guards, don't generally get as high PERs as centers. The other major issue with PER is that it has no accounting for defense beyond rebounds, blocks, and steals, but clearly the fact that UVA, Clemson, and Duke are all much better defensive teams than State ought to have some impact on how you evaluate players. I'm with you on the limitations of PER, I just thought it was an interesting coincidence, not what was driving my thinking.

I think it is just a flaw in the metric. I actually think that good guard play (especially good point guard/playmaker play) is perhaps more important than good big man play. Yet here we see two guys (Zanna and Miller) in the top-6 of PER and two guys (Paige and Ennis) outside the top-15. I don't think anyone would suggest that Zanna and Miller are more productive/more valuable than Paige and Ennis.

PER is a useful tool for comparing comparable players. But I don't think it does a great job of normalizing across positions.

[vick]

To be fair, TJ Warren isn't really a big. He's a combo wing...

Yeah, but Ferry, the anti-guard bias of PER makes Brogdon THAT MUCH MORE AWESOMER!

In seriousness, I'd probably rank them Warren, Brogdon, McDaniels, Parker--a couple of weeks ago I thought Warren would slow down against the tougher defensive teams that were coming up on State's schedule, and instead he's accelerated. But given history, I would not call a player on a team that will finish at best .500 a lock.

The pro-Paige or Ennis case is a little more baffling to me, though I don't have a problem with consideration for first-team. How is it held against Brogdon that he hasn't had the opportunity to be as "clutch" (though he has certainly done it, see the game at Pitt) because his team actually wins convincingly? Yeah he didn't get a last-second block against Notre Dame--because UVa beat the crap out of Notre Dame! Crazy logic.

[FerryFor50]

Yeah, but Ferry, the anti-guard bias of PER makes Brogdon THAT MUCH MORE AWESOMER!

In seriousness, I'd probably rank them Warren, Brogdon, McDaniels, Parker--a couple of weeks ago I thought Warren would slow down against the tougher defensive teams that were coming up on State's schedule, and instead he's accelerated. But given history, I would not call a player on a team that will finish at best .500 a lock.

The pro-Paige or Ennis case is a little more baffling to me, though I don't have a problem with consideration for first-team. How is it held against Brogdon that he hasn't had the opportunity to be as "clutch" (though he has certainly done it, see the game at Pitt) because his team actually wins convincingly? Yeah he didn't get a last-second block against Notre Dame--because UVa beat the crap out of Notre Dame! Crazy logic.

PackMan has pointed this out several times, but TJ Warren has yet to win ACC Player of the Week honors this season. HOW???

This has gotta be the week he does it, right?

I'm fully on board with Brogden in the same conversation as Paige and Ennis. But I think Paige and Ennis are the better players. Not by much, though...

[Duvall]

PackMan has pointed this out several times, but TJ Warren has yet to win ACC Player of the Week honors this season. HOW???

This has gotta be the week he does it, right?

How many times has NC State gotten through a week without a loss? Should happen this week.

I'm fully on board with Brogden in the same conversation as Paige and Ennis. But I think Paige and Ennis are the better players. Not by much, though...

Why? Brogdon's defensive rebounding gives him a dimension the other two guards can't match. Throw in the beatdowns Ennis and Paige's team received from Virginia and Brogdon looks like the leader here.

[vick]

PackMan has pointed this out several times, but TJ Warren has yet to win ACC Player of the Week honors this season. HOW???

This has gotta be the week he does it, right?

I feel like (and I don't have any statistical data to back this up, just my faulty memory) POTW awards generally go to players whose teams won both of their games in the week, which I don't think State has done in conference play except when they beat Maryland and Georgia Tech (and he didn't play in the Maryland game). I'm not saying I agree with that, and certainly I might be wrong about it anyway, but it would be my guess as an explanation.

[CDu]

Yeah, but Ferry, the anti-guard bias of PER makes Brogdon THAT MUCH MORE AWESOMER!

In seriousness, I'd probably rank them Warren, Brogdon, McDaniels, Parker--a couple of weeks ago I thought Warren would slow down against the tougher defensive teams that were coming up on State's schedule, and instead he's accelerated. But given history, I would not call a player on a team that will finish at best .500 a lock.

The pro-Paige or Ennis case is a little more baffling to me, though I don't have a problem with consideration for first-team. How is it held against Brogdon that he hasn't had the opportunity to be as "clutch" (though he has certainly done it, see the game at Pitt) because his team actually wins convincingly? Yeah he didn't get a last-second block against Notre Dame--because UVa beat the crap out of Notre Dame! Crazy logic.

PackMan has pointed this out several times, but TJ Warren has yet to win ACC Player of the Week honors this season. HOW???

This has gotta be the week he does it, right?

I'm fully on board with Brogden in the same conversation as Paige and Ennis. But I think Paige and Ennis are the better players. Not by much, though...

Yeah, I would say that Warren, Parker, and McDaniels should be first-team guys. After that, it's two of Brogdon, Paige, and Ennis, with the other being a close #6 and first guy on the second team.

The guys most likely to get left off of the first team by the actual voters are going to be Brogdon and McDaniels. Brogdon would absolutely have gotten left off by count-stat-minded voters had UVa not locked up 1st place. Had UVa finished second to Syracuse, I think we'd see both Ennis and Fair (who has no valid argument for 1st team) end up on the 1st team simply because voters are crazy.

[vick]

Yeah, I would say that Warren, Parker, and McDaniels should be first-team guys. After that, it's two of Brogdon, Paige, and Ennis, with the other being a close #6 and first guy on the second team.

The guys most likely to get left off of the first team by the actual voters are going to be Brogdon and McDaniels. Brogdon would absolutely have gotten left off by count-stat-minded voters had UVa not locked up 1st place. Had UVa finished second to Syracuse, I think we'd see both Ennis and Fair (who has no valid argument for 1st team) end up on the 1st team simply because voters are crazy.

According to David Teel, of the 49 teams to win the regular season outright, only one--2011 UNC--failed to get a 1st team pick (and that UNC team had three on the 2nd team). Of course, a little different with 8 vs. 15 teams in the league.

[nocilla]

Erick Green only won Player of the Week twice last year. Granted that is 2 more than Warren, but there is a pretty good chance Warren wins the next POTW award which would only leave him 1 behind Green. Green got exactly half of the 76 POTY votes. I expect Warren will get that many as well.

[jhmoss1812]

Here are my ACC awards

Now that the season is winding down, I think it's time to hand out awards in the ACC

POY: Jabari Parker (Duke)
ROY: Tyler Ennis (Syracuse)
COY: Tony Bennett (UVA)
OPOY: T.J. Warren (NCSU)
DPOY: Akil Mitchell (UVA)
MVP: K.J. McDaniels (Clemson)

1st team:
Marcus Paige (UNC)
T.J. Warren (NCSU)
Jabari Parker (Duke)
K.J. McDaniels (Clemson)
C.J. Fair (Syracuse)

2nd team:
Malcom Brogdon (UVA)
Rodney Hood (Duke)
Tyler Ennis (Cuse)
Lamar Patterson (Pitt)
James Michael McAdoo (UNC)

3rd team:
Olivier Hanlan (BC)
Rion Brown (Miami)
Dez Wells (MD)
Joe Harris (UVA)
Ian Miller (FSU)

All-Defensive team
Aaron Thomas (FSU)
Tyler Ennis (Cuse)
K.J. McDaniels (Clemson)
Akil Mitchell (UVA)
Daniel Miller (GT)