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  1. #1

    2014 ACC Player of the Year

    While reading through the NC State/UNC game thread, I noticed some talk of Paige or Warren perhaps getting ACC Player of the Year. That got me to thinking, who do I think will win it?

    I think that Fair and Ennis will split a lot of votes, removing either one from serious contention.

    Erik Green proved last year that you can play on a terrible team and still win Player of the Year. How it wasn't Shane Larkin I will never fully understand (or Mason, but whatever, can't win em all).

    Paige is averaging 17 and 4, which are pretty solid numbers, but not great considering the amount his team needs him to score.

    I think Jabari is the front runner here. He is tops in the league in rebounding and second in scoring to Warren, and Jabari has tons of options around him. His defense is not great, and he turns the ball over too much, but he is easily the best player in the conference. Does that make him POY?

    Will people not vote for him because he's a freshman with tons of hype? I don't think that will be the case, because he makes everyone money. When people see a story headline with the name Jabari Parker, they're going to read it.

    I think the vote is probably between Warren and Jabari (mostly due to the fact that Ennis and Fair will really split some votes, and Rodney isn't really in contention right now, thought perhaps he should be), and I can't see the POY going to a low tier team for the second year in a row.

    Obvious bias accepted, but I tried to be objective.

  2. #2
    Join Date
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    I want to say this been discussed here recently, but we could have a repeat of 2002, when an ACC player won most of the national POY awards but did not win ACC POY. Or could only tie ACC POY, as in 2001. (For the 3067980479093864th time, seriously, Joe Forte?)
    As suburban children we floated at night in swimming pools the temperature of blood. -- Douglas Coupland

  3. #3
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    Hard to believe that UVa might not have a single first-team player, but could (deservedly) win the regular season conference race (not Championship, I know).

    Jabari and Hood may cause a split along the same lines suggested for Syracuse. Perhaps not as dramatically, but still.

    Paige is not a bad bet, unfortunately.

  4. #4
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    For me only three guys are in contention (Parker, Fair, Warren). I think Warren deserves it most IMO but Air and Parker are putting in the heat. Outside of those 3 only Paige can sneak in and make some noise but I doubt he will make the upset.
    "God gave me some height and ability but didn't necessarily give me lateral quickness or the little things that make a talented defender, but I've worked my butt off, and I think I'm pretty good at it." - Ryan "The White Raven" Kelly

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by JNort View Post
    For me only three guys are in contention (Parker, Fair, Warren). I think Warren deserves it most IMO but Air and Parker are putting in the heat. Outside of those 3 only Paige can sneak in and make some noise but I doubt he will make the upset.
    What's the argument for Fair?

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Hard to believe that UVa might not have a single first-team player, but could (deservedly) win the regular season conference race (not Championship, I know).

    Jabari and Hood may cause a split along the same lines suggested for Syracuse. Perhaps not as dramatically, but still.

    Paige is not a bad bet, unfortunately.
    It just looks like Harris has way more help than anyone imagined that he would. Harris is a really good, solid player, but his PR came from the 36 points against Duke. His team is also more balanced offensively in terms of who can produce with Brogdon and the rest, so Harris doesn't have to be the primary scorer, and their pace of play is so slow that he doesn't have the chances others have to rack up numbers.

    I just cannot believe that Paige will win this award, and I don't think Warren should because his team is no good. Is that his fault? No, but Erik Green shouldn't have won last year either. I'd be okay if Fair one, I guess, since it is probable that Cuse will finish higher in the standings than Duke and he was pre-season POY anyway. Writers may as well make themselves look good.

  7. #7
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    Feb 2007
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    Warren 23.3 pts (1st); 7.1 boards (7th); .523 FGs (1st); 1.7 steals (5th)
    Parker 18.8 pts (2nd); 8.9 boards (1st); .479s FGs (3rd); 1.4 blocks (10th)
    Paige 16.9 pts (5th); .431 FGs (10); 4.6 assists (4); .899 FT% (1)
    Ennis 12 pts (N/A); 5.6 assists (1); 2.1 steals (1)

    I did not include Fair because his stats looked more like Hood's or McAdoo's than like Parker's or Warren's.

    Paige's numbers are not that exciting considering he is the #1 option. If you just want to pick the most outstanding #1 option, you'd pick Warren over Paige (6.4 more ppg). But Warren will suffer for playing on a .500 team and not being able to drag them to enough wins to make the tourney.

    I think this comes down to Parker vs Ennis. Parker wins if Duke wins out and Fair takes a few votes away from Ennis. Ennis wins if Dukes loses to Carolina.

  8. #8
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    I am doubting that Parker wins, simply because it is easy/lazy for a writer to give Parker the Freshman of the Year and then give Player of the Year to whoever the competing choice in your mind is. Parker is already getting an award, so share the wealth.

    Not saying it's right. Saying it is a cop-out rationalization that some will use.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I am doubting that Parker wins, simply because it is easy/lazy for a writer to give Parker the Freshman of the Year and then give Player of the Year to whoever the competing choice in your mind is. Parker is already getting an award, so share the wealth.

    Not saying it's right. Saying it is a cop-out rationalization that some will use.
    Under that reasoning, Ennis should not get strong consideration either. And I think they are the two biggest standouts in the conference this season.


    Here's PER rankings for the guys under consideration -
    Warren #1, Parker 3, Paige 14, Ennis 15, Fair 35. KJ McDaniel is #2. Anyone care to bump him up into the top group?

  10. #10
    How McDaniel doesn't get more love I really don't understand. That guys HAS to be the most underrated player in the league, and maybe the nation. He's in the top 10 in a TON of catagories, and leads Clemson in almost every major statistical category.

    Given the precedent that was set last year (you don't need to be on a great team to win), I really don't see how he isn't in the top 2-3 guys to win. I could see Parker or maybe Warren ahead of him, but solely on play between the lines, and not PR/national pub, McDaniel HAS to be up there.

  11. #11
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    If it's numbers, it's probably TJ Warren. He is way ahead in scoring. OTOH Jabari is #2 in scoring and a clear #1 in rebounding.

    If it's national hype, it's Jabari. He won 46 states out of 50 in an ESPN poll for most outstanding freshman (and two were "undecided"). I expect Jabari to be first-team A-A. I don't expect that of any of the other candidates

    If it's value to a really good team, then it may be Paige or Ennis (or Parker). Here there is a difference between MVP and Most Outstanding Player. Paige has been phenomenal in the clutch.

    I don't think the Erik Green example from last year means anything for this year's choice. Moreover, State is a respectable team compared to the disaster that was Virginia Tech in 2013.

    And it depends on who's voting. The writers have traditionally been the only ones selecting All-ACC and MVP. Now the coaches are in the act. I expect they will have different choices (although if the writers' votes were limited only to the 15 or so most knowledgeable writers, they may more closely converge).
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  12. #12
    I believe it will be TJ Warren. His numbers have been consistently high this year, and what was a weak supporting cast at first is starting to come together around him into a much better team. The arguments for Parker are that he's the most impressive pure talent, and that his numbers dip a bit due to having guys like Hood and Sulaimon around him who at times are capable of matching his performance. While it doesn't mean that Warren is a better player than Parker, a case could be made that Warren's season has carried more weight for his program. I think that the same folks who voted for Erick Green will vote for Warren. And while I do love Jabari, I feel Warren is equally deserving.

  13. #13
    I think it should be Warren, but I'm baffled by the people that claim that so and so is easily the best player.

    I think Warren should win it based on his offensive performance. None of the candidates are tremendous defenders, and no other players are on the same offensive level as Warren. He's a high volume scorer, but not a high volume shooter, and that's what makes him stand out.

    When was the last ACC player that was a high volume scorer and scored with Warren's sheer efficiency? Warren should be shooting even more based on his offensive efficiency. When you watch him play, he's scoring seemingly effortlessly compared to others.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Slackerb View Post
    I think it should be Warren, but I'm baffled by the people that claim that so and so is easily the best player.

    I think Warren should win it based on his offensive performance. None of the candidates are tremendous defenders, and no other players are on the same offensive level as Warren. He's a high volume scorer, but not a high volume shooter, and that's what makes him stand out.

    When was the last ACC player that was a high volume scorer and scored with Warren's sheer efficiency? Warren should be shooting even more based on his offensive efficiency. When you watch him play, he's scoring seemingly effortlessly compared to others.
    Last year? Green was very close to the same usage and much more efficient than Warren is. As offensive players, Warren hasn't touched Green's level, which is no knock on him at all, but a testament to how unbelievably good Green was last year.

  15. #15
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    As long as we are talking about it, color me shocked that the Nuggets could not find a spot on their roster for Erick Green. They are stashing him in Europe for at least a year. He's in the Italian league averaging about 11 ppg.

    -Jason "with his size and skill, I would have thought Green could make it in the NBA... maybe someday" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  16. #16
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    My $0.02...

    It's about stats. I hate to say it, but it really is. Unfortunately, that means players like Ennis and Harris (12ppg, 11.5ppg) aren't going to be given that much consideration, despite being the most important players on the 2nd and 1st ranked teams in the ACC, respectively.

    Paige, Warren, Fair, and Parker (17.5, 23.8, 16.5, 18.8) are all putting up great numbers. IMO, I think these are the four candidates. Breaking them down further:
    -Paige: by far the most important and statistically relevant UNC player. He is leading a UNC team that is surprising a lot of folks
    -Warren: insane numbers for a terrible team. Highly efficient scorer.
    -Fair: Best statistical player for a 2nd ranked Orange.
    -Parker: Best rebounder, incredible scorer for 3rd ranked Blue Devils.

    I think Fair gets eliminated from that list fairly quickly. Paige may be next to go, simply because his point average isn't as high. Parker v Warren is an interesting debate. Parker is the better player, but Warren crushes Parker on points, is not a bad rebounder (7.0), and is, IMO, more important to the Wolf Pack than Parker to the Devils. That isn't anything against Parker, but rather how bad State is and how good Warren is.

    I think, as of right now, it's Warren's trophy to lose.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  17. #17
    Based on ACC stats, here are the numbers for the various players who have been discussed (in order of PPG, for no particular reason):

    Warren: 23.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.6 spg, 50.6 fg%
    Paige: 16.8 ppg, 5.1 apg, 1.5 spg, 2.3 a/t, 42.7 fg%, 39.8 3pt%
    Parker: 16.8 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 1.4 bpg, 43.3 fg%
    Fair: 15.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg
    Ennis: 12.3 ppg, 5.8 apg, 1.7 spg, 2.8 a/t

    Honestly, I don't think Fair should even be 1st-team All-ACC. I think the other four guys are sure-fire first-team All-ACC guys.

    If I had to pick, I'd either go with Warren for his fantastic scoring and scoring efficiency or Parker for his all-around game. If I had to say right now, I'd lean in favor of Warren. But a strong finish by Parker (perhaps closing the game some in PPG and FG%) could sway me back to Parker.

    As of now, my first team would probably look like this: Warren, Parker, Paige, Ennis, McDaniels/Brogdon
    Second team: Brogdon/McDaniels, Hanlan, Patterson, Fair, McAdoo
    Third team: Zanna, Hood, Atkins, Sherman, Wells

  18. #18

    Not having Malcolm Brogdon on the list is just wrong

    The guy is the best pleyer on arguably the best team. And don't say it's all stats, he has scored in Double figures in every ACC games., stuffs the stat sheet, and is an outstanding defender. The North Carolina-Duke bias is over the top.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehky View Post
    While reading through the NC State/UNC game thread, I noticed some talk of Paige or Warren perhaps getting ACC Player of the Year. That got me to thinking, who do I think will win it?

    I think that Fair and Ennis will split a lot of votes, removing either one from serious contention.

    Erik Green proved last year that you can play on a terrible team and still win Player of the Year. How it wasn't Shane Larkin I will never fully understand (or Mason, but whatever, can't win em all).

    Paige is averaging 17 and 4, which are pretty solid numbers, but not great considering the amount his team needs him to score.

    I think Jabari is the front runner here. He is tops in the league in rebounding and second in scoring to Warren, and Jabari has tons of options around him. His defense is not great, and he turns the ball over too much, but he is easily the best player in the conference. Does that make him POY?

    Will people not vote for him because he's a freshman with tons of hype? I don't think that will be the case, because he makes everyone money. When people see a story headline with the name Jabari Parker, they're going to read it.

    I think the vote is probably between Warren and Jabari (mostly due to the fact that Ennis and Fair will really split some votes, and Rodney isn't really in contention right now, thought perhaps he should be), and I can't see the POY going to a low tier team for the second year in a row.

    Obvious bias accepted, but I tried to be objective.

  19. #19
    I was lazy and didn't specify "efficient". I meant scoring efficiency, and more based on watching players than stats. Stats are dangerous if you don't specifying what you're talking about and obviously can be stated to make a case, so I recognize that.

    When you look at PER specifically, yes, last year's Green was much higher than Warren so far this year (31.6 vs. 30.27). But other factors like effective field goal percentage and field goal percentage are also important (and more visible to voters?) and don't include defensive statistics. Green's eFG% was 53.0% and Warren's is 55.1%. The pure shooting percentages are much worse for Green of course: 52.3% for Warren and 47.5% for Green.

    Also, I think a player's career and legacy should factor somewhat in POY honors, and Warren will surely leave his mark in terms of scoring efficiency.

    If Warren's career ended today rather than in a few weeks, he'd finish 4th in career FG% for the ACC at 56.0%, with the next wing player being Al Thornton at #11 with 52.8%. According to the stats I'm looking at, he'd be 4th in career ACC PER. Pretty impressive.

    It's a close race, but in my view Warren is doing more with less than the others, and doing so incredibly efficiently on the offensive end of the court. Teams are doubling on him early and often in games, and he still piles up the points. He's had 7 30+ point games, and I think I read somewhere that no other player in the ACC has more than 1 30+ game. He hasn't scored less than 20 points since Jan 11 (his ONLY single point game). Etc., etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by vick View Post
    Last year? Green was very close to the same usage and much more efficient than Warren is. As offensive players, Warren hasn't touched Green's level, which is no knock on him at all, but a testament to how unbelievably good Green was last year.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by BobBender View Post
    The guy is the best pleyer on arguably the best team. And don't say it's all stats, he has scored in Double figures in every ACC games., stuffs the stat sheet, and is an outstanding defender. The North Carolina-Duke bias is over the top.
    I don't think this argument is a strong reason for being Player of the Year. For one thing, it was that kind of argument that (until recently) had CJ Fair and his okay-but-not-great stat line in serious conversation for Player of the Year. For another thing, UVa having the best record doesn't make them the best team given the unbalanced schedule.

    You definitely need to be the best player on your own team. But being on the winningest team in the conference doesn't mean you need to be in the discussion for PoY.

    I think Brogdon should absolutely be in the discussion for 1st Team All-ACC. I just don't think he should be PoY.

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