If it's numbers, it's probably TJ Warren. He is way ahead in scoring. OTOH Jabari is #2 in scoring and a clear #1 in rebounding.
If it's national hype, it's Jabari. He won 46 states out of 50 in an ESPN poll for most outstanding freshman (and two were "undecided"). I expect Jabari to be first-team A-A. I don't expect that of any of the other candidates
If it's value to a really good team, then it may be Paige or Ennis (or Parker). Here there is a difference between MVP and Most Outstanding Player. Paige has been phenomenal in the clutch.
I don't think the Erik Green example from last year means anything for this year's choice. Moreover, State is a respectable team compared to the disaster that was Virginia Tech in 2013.
And it depends on who's voting. The writers have traditionally been the only ones selecting All-ACC and MVP. Now the coaches are in the act. I expect they will have different choices (although if the writers' votes were limited only to the 15 or so most knowledgeable writers, they may more closely converge).
'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013