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  1. #81
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by stickdog View Post
    For curiosity's sake, I ran the numbers of how Duke and Duke's opposition have been performing on a points per 40 minutes basis with Tyler on and off the court over Duke's last 7 games.

    This includes the UNC game in which Tyler performed very poorly and had his worst plus/minus performance of the season.

    Over Duke's last 7 games, Duke's per 40 minute game score with Tyler in the game is 71 to 55.

    Over Duke's last 7 games, Duke's per 40 minute game score with Tyler out of the game is 75 to 73.

    If you pull Tyler's utterly terrible game against UNC out of the equation, the numbers become much more flattering to Tyler.

    Over Duke's last 6 games other than the UNC debacle, Duke's per 40 minute game score with Tyler in the game is 74 to 52.

    Over Duke's last 6 games other than the UNC debacle, Duke's per 40 minute game score with Tyler out of the game is 71 to 75.
    Man, I sure wish Tyler had played better against the tar heels . I'll be hoping for great games for TT against Wake and unc. GoDuke!

  2. #82
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.
    Watch this Man's carriage amidst so many very, very talented teammates, throughout a game that necessarily presents many unwanted outcomes. Watch as the bar that defines exceptionalism for Duke basketball rises, and than rises some more. Tyler Thornton is college basketball's current best story. It will not likely be told. It certainly hasn't been here.

  3. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by greybeard View Post
    Watch this Man's carriage amidst so many very, very talented teammates, throughout a game that necessarily presents many unwanted outcomes. Watch as the bar that defines exceptionalism for Duke basketball rises, and than rises some more. Tyler Thornton is college basketball's current best story. It will not likely be told. It certainly hasn't been here.
    Seriously, have you been following all the other great untold college basketball stories among the 351 NCAA Division I teams this season? I haven't. I'm just wondering how you're so sure Tyler is the best.

  4. #84
    Well, it's a pretty damn good and definitely unlikely story, it's currently happening on the team we all root for, and there's a long lull between games ...

  5. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by stickdog View Post
    For curiosity's sake, I ran the numbers of how Duke and Duke's opposition have been performing on a points per 40 minutes basis with Tyler on and off the court over Duke's last 7 games.
    I used to study plus/minus numbers for Duke's players, and Tyler has often had pretty good plus/minus numbers. I stopped talking about plus/minus, though, when people around here emphatically and continually said how meaningless a statistic it is, especially over only one or a few games. And then after Pomeroy wrote an article disparaging plus/minus, that was more or less the death knell for that particular stat. But I've always secretly thought it was interesting anyway.

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Seriously, have you been following all the other great untold college basketball stories among the 351 NCAA Division I teams this season? I haven't. I'm just wondering how you're so sure Tyler is the best.
    Over his last 9 games, London Perrantes of UVA has 33 Assists to 4 turnovers and is 10 for 21 from 3. Hopefully the Cav's fans are celebrating that.

  7. #87
    Somebody is telling that story.

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by niveklaen View Post
    Over his last 9 games, London Perrantes of UVA has 33 Assists to 4 turnovers and is 10 for 21 from 3. Hopefully the Cav's fans are celebrating that.
    And (now that you mention it) over the last 14 games his a/to numbers are 58 to 9. Over the 9 game span that's 4.75 assists per 40 and an 8.25 a/to ratio. Over the 14 game span, it's 5.62 assists per 40 and a 6.4 to 1 a/to ratio. Still not quite as good as Tyler, but qualitatively similar, especially considering its more games and he plays more minutes (30.9 mpg in last 9 games; 29.5 in last 14 games) than Tyler (26.3 mpg in last 7 games).

    Both players are hot right now.

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Rochester, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I used to study plus/minus numbers for Duke's players, and Tyler has often had pretty good plus/minus numbers. I stopped talking about plus/minus, though, when people around here emphatically and continually said how meaningless a statistic it is, especially over only one or a few games. And then after Pomeroy wrote an article disparaging plus/minus, that was more or less the death knell for that particular stat. But I've always secretly thought it was interesting anyway.
    Plus/minus alone is weak (imagine the plus/minus [okay, minus] of the poor slob who subbed in for Jordan/Russell/Chamberlain). But the idea is so fundamentally excellent that I am with you on remaining loyal to the stats principle. Surely, corrections could help. I haven't looked, but a +/- corrected for the other players on the court with the player in question would be a start.

  10. #90
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Seriously, have you been following all the other great untold college basketball stories among the 351 NCAA Division I teams this season? I haven't. I'm just wondering how you're so sure Tyler is the best.
    If you turn the question back on yourself you will have the answer. If you read every comment about Tyler these last four years, you will find your way towards the answer. If you take a step back and really look at the comments, the analysis presented in this thread, you will find your way towards the answer. After you do that, we'll talk. Peace.

  11. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by Listen to Quants View Post
    Plus/minus alone is weak (imagine the plus/minus [okay, minus] of the poor slob who subbed in for Jordan/Russell/Chamberlain). But the idea is so fundamentally excellent that I am with you on remaining loyal to the stats principle. Surely, corrections could help. I haven't looked, but a +/- corrected for the other players on the court with the player in question would be a start.
    This is the way +/-, or "adjusted plus minus," is generally used in the NBA*, and it tends to generate results that satisfy the old Bill James (I think) maxim that a stat should mostly but not completely confirm things you already know. The problem is an NBA season has far more possessions--ballpark 8000 per season vs. around 2000 for college, and college has a lot more blowouts against weak competition.

    * There's also some statistical voodoo that's often done to "regularize" the results to prevent very small sample size issues--like two players who almost always play together except for a couple of minutes--from blowing up the results.

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by vick View Post
    This is the way +/-, or "adjusted plus minus," is generally used in the NBA*, and it tends to generate results that satisfy the old Bill James (I think) maxim that a stat should mostly but not completely confirm things you already know. The problem is an NBA season has far more possessions--ballpark 8000 per season vs. around 2000 for college, and college has a lot more blowouts against weak competition.

    * There's also some statistical voodoo that's often done to "regularize" the results to prevent very small sample size issues--like two players who almost always play together except for a couple of minutes--from blowing up the results.
    Replying to myself, and tying this back to Tyler, one way to estimate adjusted plus-minus is to use the results of a regression from pace-neutral stats on players' adjusted plus-minus results. As you might expect, you can capture a lot of offensive value from the box score but rather less for defense. Anyway, this metric really likes Tyler, largely because steals are so heavily correlated with being a good player from a +/- perspective.

  13. #93
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by greybeard View Post
    If you turn the question back on yourself you will have the answer. If you read every comment about Tyler these last four years, you will find your way towards the answer. If you take a step back and really look at the comments, the analysis presented in this thread, you will find your way towards the answer. After you do that, we'll talk. Peace.
    What does this even mean?

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  14. #94
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    New York

    It is not the spoon that bends. It is only yourself.

    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    What does this even mean?

  15. #95
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Man, that takes me back to Village of the Damned.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  16. #96
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    What does this even mean?
    It means that this guy is performing at the vortex of the team, doing what he normally does, see my gazillion posts over the years and critiques in the multiple gazillions, and ask your how this guy is still growing each game in performance and importance, steps up at crucial moments, sets the tone and style, especially in the face of unwanted outcomes, shoots a shot from 3 that had to have been taught him by a man from Mars that goes in 50 plus percent of the time, and has earned his place at the helm of this extremely talented team that everyone wrote off only how can you write off a team when a captain comes off the bench hitting 3 3 threes in a row with a style that none of us has seen. Tyler chose this style because he developed it and it works, not because it looks good. It insults other teams, he steps in, glides, does not look to elevate or even bring the ball up to his forehead or higher. He shoots it from the hip, there is nothing a defender can do to disrupt the shot or his vision, if there is he does not shoot it, and he is killing people with it. Okay, come prepared for Parker and Hood and Rasheed and Dawkins, deal with ugly and deadly. Deal with me. Get through me. Or not. And, if not, trouble. Big, big trouble. Just one story in a much, much bigger one.

    This guy who has the heart of a lion, the wiles of his coach, the calm of a warrior, commands the respect of his teammates, this guy who has delivered in victory and defeat with the same I-see-it-I-do-it all out because I trust me and my boyz on every play, gets ignorned by the world and torn apart, relatively speaking, by some fans who would not see exceptionalism if it hit them in their heads which it has.

    Now, on a division III program that would be one thing. But, Thornton has been doing this for 4 years now on the biggest stage imaginable, and, aside from an occasional platitude which is really another way of saying "we don't know what he is doing out there so we'll throw him a bone because, hey, we do not know enough to argue the point with K. This year he has been emerging ever stronger right in the vortex of a team that more and more grows in a way that shows great promise; at least it deserves great respect. And, still, There is Parker, and Hood, and Amile, and Rasheed, and Plumlee, and Cook, and Dawkins but it is a no talent that people are still trying to pick apart who has been quietly putting up staggering numbers while giving this team a personality, and what a personality it is.

    So, what are Thornton's defining qualities. "The elements [a]re so mixed in him that nature might stand up and say to all the world, 'this [I]s a man.'" Syracuse has a spectacular talent, Ennis. Duke has Thornton. Defines the two programs exactly doesn't it.

    The irony is that not a head has picked up on it. In this thread, many have. To them I say, Duke.
    Last edited by greybeard; 02-28-2014 at 12:46 AM.

  17. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by greybeard View Post
    It means that this guy is performing at the vortex of the team, doing what he normally does, see my gazillion posts over the years and critiques in the multiple gazillions, and ask your how this guy is still growing each game in performance and importance, steps up at crucial moments, sets the tone and style, especially in the face of unwanted outcomes, shoots a shot from 3 that had to have been taught him by a man from Mars that goes in 50 plus percent of the time, and has earned his place at the helm of this extremely talented team that everyone wrote off only how can you write off a team when a captain comes off the bench hitting 3 3 threes in a row with a style that none of us has seen. Tyler chose this style because he developed it and it works, not because it looks good. It insults other teams, he steps in, glides, does not look to elevate or even bring the ball up to his forehead or higher. He shoots it from the hip, there is nothing a defender can do to disrupt the shot or his vision, if there is he does not shoot it, and he is killing people with it. Okay, come prepared for Parker and Hood and Rasheed and Dawkins, deal with ugly and deadly. Deal with me. Get through me. Or not. And, if not, trouble. Big, big trouble. Just one story in a much, much bigger one.

    This guy who has the heart of a lion, the wiles of his coach, the calm of a warrior, commands the respect of his teammates, this guy who has delivered in victory and defeat with the same I-see-it-I-do-it all out because I trust me and my boyz on every play, gets ignorned by the world and torn apart, relatively speaking, by some fans who would not see exceptionalism if it hit them in their heads which it has.

    Now, on a division III program that would be one thing. But, Thornton has been doing this for 4 years now on the biggest stage imaginable, and, aside from an occasional platitude which is really another way of saying "we don't know what he is doing out there so we'll throw him a bone because, hey, we do not know enough to argue the point with K. This year he has been emerging ever stronger right in the vortex of a team that more and more grows in a way that shows great promise; at least it deserves great respect. And, still, There is Parker, and Hood, and Amile, and Rasheed, and Plumlee, and Cook, and Dawkins but it is a no talent that people are still trying to pick apart who has been quietly putting up staggering numbers while giving this team a personality, and what a personality it is.

    So, what are Thornton's defining qualities. "The elements [a]re so mixed in him that nature might stand up and say to all the world, 'this [I]s a man.'" Syracuse has a spectacular talent, Ennis. Duke has Thornton. Defines the two programs exactly doesn't it.

    The irony is that not a head has picked up on it. In this thread, many have. To them I say, Duke.
    http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=209411052

    Read this article and you will have a new level of respect and appreciation for Tyler Thornton and what he brings to Duke University. I just read it and it had that effect on me.

  18. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by greybeard View Post
    It means that this guy is performing at the vortex of the team, doing what he normally does, see my gazillion posts over the years and critiques in the multiple gazillions, and ask your how this guy is still growing each game in performance and importance, steps up at crucial moments, sets the tone and style, especially in the face of unwanted outcomes, shoots a shot from 3 that had to have been taught him by a man from Mars that goes in 50 plus percent of the time, and has earned his place at the helm of this extremely talented team that everyone wrote off only how can you write off a team when a captain comes off the bench hitting 3 3 threes in a row with a style that none of us has seen. Tyler chose this style because he developed it and it works, not because it looks good. It insults other teams, he steps in, glides, does not look to elevate or even bring the ball up to his forehead or higher. He shoots it from the hip, there is nothing a defender can do to disrupt the shot or his vision, if there is he does not shoot it, and he is killing people with it. Okay, come prepared for Parker and Hood and Rasheed and Dawkins, deal with ugly and deadly. Deal with me. Get through me. Or not. And, if not, trouble. Big, big trouble. Just one story in a much, much bigger one.

    This guy who has the heart of a lion, the wiles of his coach, the calm of a warrior, commands the respect of his teammates, this guy who has delivered in victory and defeat with the same I-see-it-I-do-it all out because I trust me and my boyz on every play, gets ignorned by the world and torn apart, relatively speaking, by some fans who would not see exceptionalism if it hit them in their heads which it has.

    Now, on a division III program that would be one thing. But, Thornton has been doing this for 4 years now on the biggest stage imaginable, and, aside from an occasional platitude which is really another way of saying "we don't know what he is doing out there so we'll throw him a bone because, hey, we do not know enough to argue the point with K. This year he has been emerging ever stronger right in the vortex of a team that more and more grows in a way that shows great promise; at least it deserves great respect. And, still, There is Parker, and Hood, and Amile, and Rasheed, and Plumlee, and Cook, and Dawkins but it is a no talent that people are still trying to pick apart who has been quietly putting up staggering numbers while giving this team a personality, and what a personality it is.

    So, what are Thornton's defining qualities. "The elements [a]re so mixed in him that nature might stand up and say to all the world, 'this [I]s a man.'" Syracuse has a spectacular talent, Ennis. Duke has Thornton. Defines the two programs exactly doesn't it.

    The irony is that not a head has picked up on it. In this thread, many have. To them I say, Duke.
    Well said, Grey one. It seems that often we get lost in the forest of detail and fail to see the whole of the canvas.

  19. #99
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC

    Truly, a Duke student athlete!

    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=209411052

    Read this article and you will have a new level of respect and appreciation for Tyler Thornton and what he brings to Duke University. I just read it and it had that effect on me.
    A great article on a great young man. The comment I liked was when he said he wanted to represent his family, represent the school and Duke tradition and represent Coach for giving him the opportunity to play at Duke. A player that thanks his coach for giving him the chance to play, not a player that thinks he's doing the coach a favor by attending Duke University. Here is a young man that's not blessed with God given talent that others possess. But through hard work and dedication to Duke University, has made himself a very valuable player and teammate. He has the heart of a champion and no one gives more on the court than Tyler Thornton. GoDuke!

  20. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    Well said, Grey one. It seems that often we get lost in the forest of detail and fail to see the whole of the canvas.
    I just love to mix metaphors.

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