Tyler Thornton's amazing ACC Conference numbers

[stickdog]

Updated assists per 40 minutes of ACC play:

4.8 Thornton
4.6 Sulaimon
4.5 Cook
2.4 Hood
1.7 Jefferson
1.1 Parker
1.0 Dawkins
0.9 Plumlee
0.4 Jones

[stickdog]

Updated everything else:

Tyler Thornton's 150.9 offensive rating is first in the ACC and first in the NCAA for any offensive rating of any player in any NCAA conference in conference play only.

Tyler Thornton's 5.7 assist to turnover ratio is first in the ACC and 8th in the NCAA for any assist to turnover ratio of any player in any NCAA conference in conference play only.

Tyler Thornton's 5.1 steal percentage is first in the ACC and 9th in the NCAA for any steal percentage of any player in any NCAA conference in conference play only.

link

It is generally incredible whenever any player accumulates more steals than turnovers. To illustrate this point, so far in the NBA this season, only 20 of the 197 players who have played more than 1000 minutes have managed to notch more steals than turnovers. This is especially difficult for players who generate assists with any proficiency whatsoever. In fact, the only NBA player with more than 1000 minutes of playing time this season who has an assist rate higher than Tyler's 21.0% assist rate in ACC play and more steals than turnovers is Chris Paul. That's one out of 197 players.

Tyler Thornton doesn't just have more steals than he has turnovers in ACC play. He has 27 steals against just 7 turnovers in 334 minutes of ACC play. That's a 3.86 to 1 steal to turnover margin. That's ******* insane. Since the NBA's 1977-78 season, only a single player (Maurice Cheeks in 1991-92) with an assist percentage over 12.5% and more than 300 minutes of PT has ever had more than twice as many steals as turnovers! Since the NBA's 1977-78 season, only one player with more than 300 minutes of PT has ever had more than 3.8 times as many steals as turnovers!

It is generally incredible whenever any player accumulates 3 times as many assists as turnovers. To illustrate this point, so far in the NBA this season, only 8 of the 197 players who have played more than 1000 minutes (including Shane Battier and Josh McRoberts) have managed to notch more than 3 times as many assists as turnovers.

Tyler Thornton doesn't just have more than 3 times as many assists as he has turnovers in ACC play. He has 40 assists against just 7 turnovers in 334 minutes of ACC play. That's a 5.71 to 1 assist to turnover margin. That's ******* insane. Since the NBA's 1977-78 season, only one player with more than 1000 minutes of PT has ever had more than 5.5 times as many assists as turnovers!

[79-77]

TT deserves a lot of credit for seizing a bigger role with the team than many (including me) might have expected, but I think part of the story is what's happened with Cook's game. He seems to have plateaued while TT and Sulaimon have continued to improve.

I certainly didn't expect Cook to get only 11 minutes in an ACC game this season, as he did last night. Nor did I think Sulaimon had penetrate-and-dish in his game, but there we are.

[Scorp4me]

He seems to have plateaued while TT and Sulaimon have continued to improve.

That absolutely without a doubt can't be true! I know because I've read it here and every other Duke message board I've visited. This team has a higher ceiling with Cook starting, Thornton should be playing minimal minutes, and we have no chance with Tyler, why K can't see it when most posters can is beyond me. I know, cause I read it.

Just for clarification, that was sarcasm...but good natured sarcasm =)

[stickdog]

Tyler has 29 assists and 14 steals vs. just 3 turnovers over his last 7 games.

That's a 14.3 to 1 assist + steal to turnover ratio.

That's 6.3 assists and 3.0 steals against 0.7 turnovers per 40 minutes of play over his last 7 games.

6.3 assists per 40 minutes is not some small number.

In fact, only 8 Duke players have managed to average more than 5.0 assists per 40 minutes played over Duke's last 17 seasons.

JWill (sophomore): 7.6 assists & 2.5 steals vs. 5.0 turnovers per 40 minutes
JWill (freshman): 7.6 assists & 2.8 steals vs. 4.8 turnovers per 40 minutes
Chris Duhon (junior): 7.1 assists & 2.1 steals vs. 3.3 turnovers per 40 minutes
Chris Duhon (senior): 6.9 assists & 2.4 steals vs. 3.2 turnovers per 40 minutes
Chris Duhon (sophomore): 6.8 assists & 2.6 steals vs. 3.0 turnovers per 40 minutes
Will Avery (sophomore): 6.5 assists & 1.9 steals vs. 3.4 turnovers per 40 minutes
Wojo (senior): 6.5 assists & 2.9 steals vs. 2.5 turnovers per 40 minutes
Greg Paulus (freshman): 6.4 assists & 1.9 steals vs. 4.1 turnovers per 40 minutes
JWill (junior): 6.4 assists & 1.7 steals vs. 2.6 turnovers per 40 minutes
Quinn Cook (sophomore): 6.3 assists & 2.6 steals vs. 4.5 turnovers per 40 minutes
Kyrie Irving (freshman): 6.2 assists & 2.1 steals vs. 3.6 turnovers per 40 minutes
Quinn Cook (junior): 5.8 assists & 1.8 steals vs. 2.1 turnovers per 40 minutes
Jon Scheyer (senior): 5.3 assists & 1.8 steals vs. 1.8 turnovers per 40 minutes

Note that JWill & Duhon are Duke's only players over the last 17 seasons to have averaged more than 6.5 assists per 40 minutes of play. The fewest turnovers of either player in any of these seasons was 3.0 per 40 minutes of play. Over Tyler's last 7 games, he has averaged 6.3 assists and 0.7 turnovers per 40 minutes of play.

Further note that the lowest turnover total on the list is Scheyer's 1.8 turnovers per 40 minutes of play. Over his last 7 games, Tyler has averaged 0.7 turnovers per 40 minutes of play while averaging one more assist and 1.2 more steals per 40 minutes than Scheyer averaged his senior season. Tyler has also averaged just 0.8 turnovers per 40 minutes over the entire ACC season so far.

Finally, note that the highest steal total on this list is the 2.8 steals per 40 minutes notched by JWill in his freshman season. Tyler has averaged 3.0 steals per 40 minutes played over his last 7 games and 3.2 steals per 40 minutes played on the entire ACC season.

I'd put Tyler's recent 7 game tear of 6.3 assists and 3.0 steals vs. 0.7 turnovers per 40 minutes of play against any of these guards' assist + steal to turnover numbers, in terms of both efficiency and quantity.

[roywhite]

stickdog -- great job on the numbers, and truly impressive work for Tyler. Talk about a senior stepping forward...

My observation is that Tyler has made several of his steals after really good on-the-ball pressure by Rasheed Sulaimon. They seem to have some of the best two-man defensive plays that I've seen since Dawkins and Amaker were pulling off traps. Sulaimon sets it up with tough man-to-man defense on the ball handler, pushing him out and turning him, and Tyler anticipates and pounces, either knocking away the dribble or intercepting the pass.

Is this an accurate perception of where and how many of Thornton's steals are occurring?

[Furniture]

I think one difference between Cook and TT was quite noticeable last night. TT would get up court and move the ball much quicker than Cook.

[Kedsy]

I'd put Tyler's recent 7 game tear of 6.3 assists and 3.0 steals vs. 0.7 turnovers per 40 minutes of play against any of these guards' assist + steal to turnover numbers, in terms of both efficiency and quantity.

I agree Tyler has been playing very well lately, but I'm not sure how instructive it is to compare a 7 game stretch to another player's full season. I'm sure more than 8 players have put up these kinds of numbers over 7 games, and I'm sure the 8 you named did it multiple times and many of them had equally or even more eye-popping numbers than Tyler over a 7 game stretch as well. I just think it's an apples and oranges comparison.

[Des Esseintes]

I agree Tyler has been playing very well lately, but I'm not sure how instructive it is to compare a 7 game stretch to another player's full season. I'm sure more than 8 players have put up these kinds of numbers over 7 games, and I'm sure the 8 you named did it multiple times and many of them had equally or even more eye-popping numbers than Tyler over a 7 game stretch as well. I just think it's an apples and oranges comparison.

Yeah, same goes with the 1000+ minute NBA players cited earlier in the thread. Tyler is playing great, but the 18 games of ACC play =/= 82 of NBA play. Which, again, does nothing to take away from Tyler having the latest Extraordinary Duke Senior Season, in which a guy exceeds even the seemingly rosiest of expectations we could have put on him.

[greybeard]

There is quite a large difference between Scheyer and Thornton. Scheyer was (as a senior) nothing of a game-manager. He was a true playmaker for that team, and certainly didn't just play within himself on offense.

He absolutely played within himself on offense, which was given broader range by K. Thornton is on the court with four bona fide scorers. Scheyer, 2. Scheyer had more scorer in his game than Thornton, but he was not a creator for that offense. Zoubek was the closest thing to a creator that Duke had. A unique roll which made Duke such a very tough out.

[stickdog]

I agree Tyler has been playing very well lately, but I'm not sure how instructive it is to compare a 7 game stretch to another player's full season. I'm sure more than 8 players have put up these kinds of numbers over 7 games, and I'm sure the 8 you named did it multiple times and many of them had equally or even more eye-popping numbers than Tyler over a 7 game stretch as well. I just think it's an apples and oranges comparison.

Please list all the Duke players who have had 7 consecutive ACC game stretches with more than 6.3 assists per 40 minutes and better than a 9.7 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.

Because I really like them apples.

[CBecker]

I think his passing is underrated by some here. He doesn't just make safe passes. Passing into the post is quite a difficult thing to do considering how blocked up the area can get at times, Tyler to me is possibly the best post passer on the team. He made a few to Jabari last game that really caught my eye.

[throatybeard]

I don't know anything about the rate stats y'all are posting and I salute them, but count-stats-wise, I want to say that Wojo and THill both ended their careers with more steals than TOs.

[Kedsy]

Please list all the Duke players who have had 7 consecutive ACC game stretches with more than 6.3 assists per 40 minutes and better than a 9.7 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.

Because I really like them apples.

First of all, do you deny that comparing a 7 game stretch to another player's full season is a misleading comparison? Because I think that's pretty self-evident. And why 7 games? In the four games preceding Tyler's nice 7 game stretch, he had exactly one (1) assist in each game. So why didn't you talk about his 11 game stretch?

Second, why does it matter if it's ACC games or not? It's not like the 7 game stretch you cite was against particularly difficult opposition: only two top 20 teams (according to Pomeroy), and against one of those teams Tyler had zero (0) assists against 1 turnover; plus one top 50 team (#49), and four teams ranked between #116 and #184. My guess is most 7 game stretches (ACC or not) in most year's Duke schedule would average as good or better than the #96 that this stretch averages.

Third, after you make the claim that Tyler's stats are so otherworldly by making an apples-to-oranges comparison to easily accessible full-season stats, why do you think I'd feel obligated to research 7-game stretches of every Duke player ever?

Finally, the second player I looked up, Quinn Cook as a freshman, had a 7-game ACC stretch in which he averaged 6.59 assists per 40 minutes with a 7 to 1 a/to ratio. A slightly smaller a/to, but essentially the same stats with which you've challenged me. He also had a 5 game stretch against ACC opponents in which he averaged 6.06 assists per 40 with a 10 to 1 a/to ratio, and an earlier 4 game stretch (admittedly including just one game against an ACC team) in which he averaged 11.43 assists per 40 with a 12 to 1 a/to ratio. Honestly, I have no desire to look up every other Duke player to give you a complete list, but if the second player I looked up put up those kind of stats in short stretches, maybe it's not so unique as you suggest.

[Kedsy]

Because I really like them apples.

OK, I checked three more players. Wojo had a 5 game stretch in 1998 where he averaged 8.1 assists per 40 with a 9.67 to 1 a/to ratio, and a 4 game stretch in 1996 where he averaged 7.92 assists per 40 with a 10 to 1 a/to ratio. He may have had other such streaks, even longer ones, but it's hard to catch them all when you're just eyeballing. Jon Scheyer in 2009-10 opened the season with an 8 game stretch averaging 5.87 assists per 40 with a 21 to 0 (!) a/to ratio. I'm sure you could find some other impressive short spans for him too. Chris Duhon as a freshman had a 7 game ACC stretch with 5.31 assists per 40 and a 7.67 a/to ratio, including a 5 game stretch where he averaged 5.25 assists per 40 with a 16 to 1 a/to ratio. I'd bet he had some other nice stretches in his career as well.

So, I've now checked five guys and four of them had similar (admittedly not identical, but similar) short streaks that essentially match Tyler's numbers, some even more eye popping than his. And that's just from quick eyeballing.

If that's not enough for you, I don't care. I'm going to bed now.

[stickdog]

Still waiting for that 7+ consecutive ACC game stretch I asked for.

The reason I'm asking for an equally impressive 7+ game streak of ACC games is because that is the streak Tyler is on right now (and counting).

[79-77]

I think his passing is underrated by some here. He doesn't just make safe passes. Passing into the post is quite a difficult thing to do considering how blocked up the area can get at times, Tyler to me is possibly the best post passer on the team. He made a few to Jabari last game that really caught my eye.

Perhaps on post entries, but I think Sulaimon is better at penetrate-and-dish.

[CBecker]

Perhaps on post entries, but I think Sulaimon is better at penetrate-and-dish.

Yeah I meant entries. Rasheed is obviously better at penetration. Tyler throws a nice lob as well.

[Kedsy]

Still waiting for that 7+ consecutive ACC game stretch I asked for.

The reason I'm asking for an equally impressive 7+ game streak of ACC games is because that is the streak Tyler is on right now (and counting).

Thanks for helping me make my point. My original point was you were improperly trying to show how good Tyler's recent 7 game stretch is by comparing it to other player's full seasons. But if 5 game stretches aren't a good enough comparison for a 7 game stretch, how is a 7 game stretch a worthy comparison for an entire season?

Sure, Tyler is on a good 7 game streak. But he's also working on a 5 games streak of 4.55 assists per 40 with a 6 to 1 a/to ratio, and all the streaks I mentioned were way better than that. Also, basically, you're touting him for beating up on a bunch of sub-115 teams. Against the only top 100 teams we've played during Tyler's current streak, he's averaging a pedestrian 3.33 assists per 40 and a 2 to 1 a/to ratio. Not particularly good at all.

Finally, I did give you a couple 7+ game streaks: Quinn's freshman streak of 6.59 assists per 40 and 7 to 1 ratio and Jon Scheyer's 8 game streak of 5.87 assists per 40 and 8.4 to 1 a/to ratio (I apologize for misspeaking about Scheyer's 21 to 0 a/to -- that was only in four games, but it was late when I posted it). If you really think that Tyler's 6.3 and 9.7 to 1 is substantially more impressive than Quinn's 6.59 and 7 to 1, I hope you realize that if Tyler had been credited with just one more turnover, his a/to would have been 7.25 to 1. Again, emphasizing how short spans aren't comparable to full seasons.

Finally, since you're "waiting," here it is: Andre Buckner during his freshman season had a 7 ACC game stretch in which he averaged 7.1 assists per 40 with an infinite (zero turnovers) a/to ratio. Better than Tyler in both measures. While it's true Andre B didn't play many minutes during that streak, neither has Tyler compared to the full season totals of most of the guys on your comparison list. It's all a matter of degree and that was my point.

[Steven43]

Perhaps on post entries, but I think Sulaimon is better at penetrate-and-dish.

You are correct that Sulaimon is better at penetrate-and-dish because Thornton doesn't penetrate-and-dish. At all. He doesn't even penetrate. He has neither the handles nor the quickness necessary to be that type of player.