Tyler Thornton's amazing ACC Conference numbers

[stickdog]

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Tyler Thornton's 152.1 offensive rating is first in the ACC and first in the NCAA for any offensive rating of any player in any NCAA conference in conference play only.

Tyler Thornton's 5.0 steal percentage is first in the ACC and ninth in the NCAA for any steal percentage of any player in any NCAA conference in conference play only.

Tyler Thornton's 4.7 assist to turnover ratio is second in the ACC and 12th in the NCAA for any assist to turnover ratio of any player in any NCAA conference in conference play only.

[stickdog]

Offensive Rating measures how efficiently a team scores on the possessions an individual player "uses". You can "use" a possession by shooting the ball, making an assist or turning the ball over.

Thornton's scoring efficiency numbers in ACC play are unworldly high because he has hit 52% of his three point shots and 75% of his free throws, and he has very rarely taken any other shot. Therefore, his effective field goal percentage in ACC play is 73.4% and his true shooting shooting percentage is 74.0%.

Through 15 ACC games, Tyler has hit 15-29 three point field goals while playing 20 minutes per game. That means he averages 2 made threes per 3.9 threes attempted per 40 minutes of ACC play. Only Dawkins, Hood and Cook are averaging more made threes per 40 minutes of ACC play, and Cook is hoisting 7.5 threes per 40 minutes in order to account for his 2.5 made threes per 40 minutes on 34% shooting compared to Tyler's 52% shooting.

Even more impressive are TT's assist, steal and turnover numbers in ACC play. Steal percentage measures how many steals you average per defensive possession played. Tyler averages one steal per every 20 ACC defensive possessions played. Despite playing just 20 minutes per game over Duke's 15 ACC games, Tyler has somehow managed to generate 24 of Duke's 101 total steals. That's 24% of the steals in just 10% of the available playing time. To put this in another perspective, Duke's ACC opponents have only managed to pry a combined 64 total steals away from Duke over 15 games of play. So Tyler, by himself and despite playing just 20 minutes per ACC contest, has managed to notch 3/8th of the total steals of all of Duke's ACC opponents.

It is generally incredible whenever any player accumulates more steals than turnovers. To illustrate this point, so far in the NBA this season, only 20 of the 197 players who have played more than 1000 minutes have managed to notch more steals than turnovers. This is especially difficult for players who generate assists with any proficiency whatsoever. In fact, the only NBA players this season who have an assist rate higher than Tyler's 17.8% assist rate in ACC play who have more steals than turnovers on the season are Chris Paul and Andre Iguodala. That's 2 out of 198 players.

Tyler Thornton doesn't just have more steals than he has turnovers in ACC play. He has 24 steals against just 7 turnovers in 301 minutes of ACC play. That's a 3.4 to 1 steal to turnover margin. That's ******* ridiculous. Since the NBA's 1977-78 season, only a single player (Maurice Cheeks in 1991-92) with an assist percentage over 12.5% and more than 300 minutes of PT has ever had more than twice as many steals as turnovers! Since the NBA's 1977-78 season, only 8 players (including Shane Battier this current season) with more than 300 minutes of PT have ever had more than 2.5 as many steals as turnovers! And none of these 8 players has had an assist rate above 10.1%. Since the NBA's 1977-78 season, only 3 players (including Shane Battier this current season) with more than 300 minutes of PT have ever had more than 3.3 as many steals as turnovers! And none of these 3 players has had an assist rate above 6.3%.

It is generally incredible whenever any player accumulates 3 times more assists than turnovers. To illustrate this point, so far in the NBA this season, only 8 of the 197 players who have played more than 1000 minutes (including Shane Battier and Josh McRoberts) have managed to notch more than 3 times as many assists as turnovers.

Tyler Thornton doesn't just have more than 3 times as many assists as he has turnovers in ACC play. He has 33 assists against just 7 turnovers in 301 minutes of ACC play. That's a 4.71 to 1 assist to turnover margin. That's ******* ridiculous. Since the NBA's 1977-78 season, only 8 players (including Shane Battier this current season) with more than 1000 minutes of PT have ever had more than 4.71 times as many steals as turnovers! Muggsy Bogues accomplished this feat an amazing 6 times. John Paxson and Maurice Cheeks managed it twice over their long careers, and no other NBA player has ever managed it more than once.

[ncexnyc]

Bruise Brother #1 getting some statistical love, that will freak some people out.

[FerryFor50]

Omg why is he playing so many minutes ????

[timmy c]

Omg why is he playing so many minutes ????

Seth Curry should be taking some of those minutes... Clearly.

[OldPhiKap]

Seth Curry should be taking some of those minutes... Clearly.

Olek looked great at the Blue-White.

[Furniture]

He knows his limits. He is one smart young man!
Good leader too. You can clearly see in the huddle that he us doing the talking a lot of the time and the others are listening.
I think he got a hard rap by some earlier in the season because he was for the most part coming on with Josh. Many pointed out that with them both of at the same time the 'team' became ineffective offensively.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

MP3 should take up TT playing time. He leads the nation in screens set per 40 mins.

Seriously though, what a curious player Tyler has become. He is weirdly compelling to watch, and I guess this explains why to a degree.

Go Duke!

[CDu]

I don't mean to discredit the season Thornton is having in any way, but I must say that ORtg tends to overinflate the offensive value of a player like Thornton (and, similarly, a player like Dawkins). If you only shoot open 3pt shots and only make safe passes around the perimeter, you're making high-percentage plays and avoiding the types of plays that threaten to lower your ORtg. It's a great measure of the efficiency of a player, but not a great measure of the overall offensive value of the player.

For example, a 40+% 3pt shooter who never dribbles, never passes, and never takes anything other than a wide-open 3 is going to have a very strong ORtg. Conversely, a PG who is tasked with creating offense for himself and for others is going to commit more turnovers and is going to have more trouble sustaining a high ORtg.

Thornton (this season, at least) is the ORtg anomaly. He pretty much only shoots wide-open 3s or wide-open layups. He pretty much only makes the safe pass (generally to a perimeter guy). He pretty much never dribbles into traffic. So as long as he's hitting his 3s, his ORtg is going to look spectacular.

All that is meant to say this: Thornton has been a near-perfect 5th option on offense. As long as you have guys around him who can do all the heavy lifting for the offense, he's a terrific option out there, because he doesn't do anything that risks hurting the offense. Now, if you put him and two of Hairston/Plumlee/Jefferson on the floor together, then your offense is going to stagnate. But in a lineup with Sulaimon, Hood, and Parker, Thornton is far enough down the food chain that his offensive limitations don't hurt us, and his skill set actually complements the lineup.

I've been incredibly pleased with his performance this year. He's worlds better this year than he has been in any previous year. But he's basically managed that improvement by becoming a fantastic set-shooter who only shoots when wide open and only makes the safest of plays when not shooting. Which is a good thing for him, because his skill set isn't that of a guy who can be a playmaker.

It's great to see a kid figure out his role and really play it well. Thornton has absolutely found that niche and is doing it about as well as he can do it.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Thornton is just what this team needs: a senior leader who gives this team the intangibles and the hard-nosed defense. I have enjoyed everything that Thornton has brought this year. He is a fearless warrior.

Also, I love his ability to hit threes. And I'm sure that Coach K kicks his butt every time Thornton is open down low and passes it instead of shooting it. Thornton is, without question, unselfish to a fault.

[Kedsy]

I don't mean to discredit the season Thornton is having in any way, but I must say that ORtg tends to overinflate the offensive value of a player like Thornton (and, similarly, a player like Dawkins). If you only shoot open 3pt shots and only make safe passes around the perimeter, you're making high-percentage plays and avoiding the types of plays that threaten to lower your ORtg. It's a great measure of the efficiency of a player, but not a great measure of the overall offensive value of the player.

I agree completely with what you say about Tyler and oRtg. He's having a great senior season and is the perfect 4th or 5th option, but the numbers don't entirely measure his offensive worth when he's out there.

I don't entirely agree with your parenthetical statement about Andre. While Tyler's great oRtg comes with a 7.7 usage percentage (according to sports-reference.com, and for the season, not just ACC games), which is the lowest on the team, Andre's great oRtg comes with a 24.6 usage percentage, which is the 2nd highest on the team. So, while you're right that Andre doesn't necessarily put himself out there by driving very often or trying to make tough passes, he gets the ball a lot and tries to score a lot. I think the fact that he still has a high oRtg does say a great deal about his overall offensive value.

[CDu]

I agree completely with what you say about Tyler and oRtg. He's having a great senior season and is the perfect 4th or 5th option, but the numbers don't entirely measure his offensive worth when he's out there.

I don't entirely agree with your parenthetical statement about Andre. While Tyler's great oRtg comes with a 7.7 usage percentage (according to sports-reference.com, and for the season, not just ACC games), which is the lowest on the team, Andre's great oRtg comes with a 24.6 usage percentage, which is the 2nd highest on the team. So, while you're right that Andre doesn't necessarily put himself out there by driving very often or trying to make tough passes, he gets the ball a lot and tries to score a lot. I think the fact that he still has a high oRtg does say a great deal about his overall offensive value.

I completely agree that Dawkins is a very valuable offensive player. But I also think that ORtg overvalues him. I don't think the two are mutually exclusive statements. I would agree that Dawkins' ORtg is probably closer to his actual offensive value than Thornton's ORtg (i.e., that ORtg overvalues Thornton more than it does Dawkins), due in large part to the difference in usage rate.

[Indoor66]

I would point out that the "numbers" never measure the intangibles. As seniors, both Dawkins and Thornton (particularly Thornton) are stabilizing influences on their much younger teammates. Add that to the "numbers" and their worth far exceeds their usage or pure stats.

[killerleft]

Tyler Thornton does a lot of good things for us. He's very good at taking fouls underneath so our bigs don't get them, while most of the time forcing the other team to make foul shots. He's just a great student of the game, and only the bang-bang nature of the game prevents virtually all of his decisions from being right. He's also a clutch shooter. I was quite agitated toward the end of the UNC game when he didn't get passes while patiently waiting (wide open) to take the 3-pointers for which he was already locked-and-loaded to hit.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I would point out that the "numbers" never measure the intangibles. As seniors, both Dawkins and Thornton (particularly Thornton) are stabilizing influences on their much younger teammates. Add that to the "numbers" and their worth far exceeds their usage or pure stats.

Actually, advanced metrics can measure the intangibles, and it's only getting better. +/- is probably the most simple, and I'm sure that Thornton has a wonderful +/-.

The legacy of Shane Battier. Thank you Shane to all us stat nerds out there.

[toooskies]

I completely agree that Dawkins is a very valuable offensive player. But I also think that ORtg overvalues him. I don't think the two are mutually exclusive statements. I would agree that Dawkins' ORtg is probably closer to his actual offensive value than Thornton's ORtg (i.e., that ORtg overvalues Thornton more than it does Dawkins), due in large part to the difference in usage rate.

All of this may be true, but shooting over 50% from behind the arc is spectacular in any context. That he has taken and made so many means that he's only taking good shots, which means he's executing the offense well. Also, a high turnover rate has been a problem for him in the past, so having so few this year is a significant and welcome improvement.

[Listen to Quants]

... While Tyler's great oRtg comes with a 7.7 usage percentage (according to sports-reference.com, and for the season, not just ACC games), which is the lowest on the team ... ...

Your, and others' point that Tyler is not a central focus of the offense is, of course, right and the numbers support this. Still, 'usage percentage' is a stat that one doesn't necessarily want high (you know that, of course). The missed FGs and TOs obviously are negative to the offense. Thornton's stats obviously reflect a style designed to be low usage AND effective. His 3% is of course wondrous, as is his Assist/TO. It should be noted too, that 4.4 assists/40 minutes in ACC play for a '2' guard who almost always is on the court with either Sulaimon or Cook is a fair volume. His passes are safe but he has purpose.

I'm just chiming in with everybody else, ... kid is remarkably useful on the offensive end where a lot of us figured he would be a slight burden.

[CDu]

All of this may be true, but shooting over 50% from behind the arc is spectacular in any context. That he has taken and made so many means that he's only taking good shots, which means he's executing the offense well. Also, a high turnover rate has been a problem for him in the past, so having so few this year is a significant and welcome improvement.

Actually, Dawkins is turning the ball over at about the same rate he always has. His career-low for turnovers/40 was 1.25 (as a freshman). As a sophomore and junior, it was 1.42-1.44. This year, it's 1.33. So he's been remarkably consistent in terms of turnover rate.

Dawkins' ORtg this year has been slightly better than his sophomore year ORtg, basically a result of hitting a higher percentage of his 3s this year. What's impressive is that he's done it while increasing his usage rate by about 50%.

Or were you talking about Thornton? If so then I'd agree that he's cut down on his turnovers. But I wouldn't say that he has taken "so many" shots. He has only attempted 59 FG this year (46 3s). It's amazing that he has hit 50%, although a good chunk of that is because he's so frequently left wide open for those 3s.

That said, he's been a VERY effective 5th option on this particular team, primarily because we're able to create offense while allowing him to stand quietly in the corner or on the wing in hopes of hitting a 3. Unlike in previous years where we didn't have quite as many playmakers on the floor, he's basically able to function in a low-risk role out there.

[g-money]

I'm glad some of the stats are backing up what we've always known about Tyler: The kid's a winner.

[Troublemaker]

It should be noted too, that 4.4 assists/40 minutes in ACC play for a '2' guard who almost always is on the court with either Sulaimon or Cook is a fair volume.

Yes, his passing is underrated. Tyler's the player I'm most comfortable with making an entry pass to the low post against both zone and man.

Against 2-3 zone, he and Sheed are the players I'm most comfortable with making the pass into the high post / FT line area.