2016 Basketball Recruiting Thread

[Kedsy]

My main point in my Dennis Smith post was premised on the certainty that Rasheed and the high likelihood that Tyus would be gone by 2016-17. Thus, if -- if -- Smith is only 2016 PG target, then K is super confident re Smith or, in the event of missing out on "only priority" Smith, K is also confident that Soph Kennard would do fine as main PG in 2016-17.

Oh, I'm sorry. I misread your post. You may be right. It's also possible K thinks he can quickly come up with a backup plan if "only priority" Smith decides to go elsewhere.

Alternatively, he might feel that senior Matt Jones could man the point adequately. To me that seems more likely, if only because we've already seen Matt play college ball (unlike Luke) and Matt will be a senior. Or maybe some combination of Matt and Luke. I don't think there's anyway to know for sure at this point, but if Tyus leaves before his junior season and Dennis Smith, Jr., goes elsewhere, your hypothesis is certainly plausible.

[gumbomoop]

Alternatively, he might feel that senior Matt Jones could man the point adequately. To me that seems more likely, if only because we've already seen Matt play college ball (unlike Luke) and Matt will be a senior. Or maybe some combination of Matt and Luke. I don't think there's anyway to know for sure at this point, but if Tyus leaves before his junior season and Dennis Smith, Jr., goes elsewhere, your hypothesis is certainly plausible.

I know this (my) speculation re PG in 2016-17 will irritate some posters. But Smith's "only priority" comment did catch my eye, and raises questions, as Rasheed and probably Tyus will be gone.

Yes, in the no-Smith scenario, a combo of Matt and Luke is likely. I just haven't seen enough of Grayson to know whether he'd be in that PG mix. Truth is, of course, I've not seen Matt handle the ball much. Nor Luke .... but in the 2-3 times I've seen Luke, my assessment is that his handle is better than merely good. Also vision.

Lots of time to sort this one out. Hope Smith, Jr., joins the Devils.

[Kedsy]

I know this (my) speculation re PG in 2016-17 will irritate some posters. But Smith's "only priority" comment did catch my eye, and raises questions, as Rasheed and probably Tyus will be gone.

Yes, in the no-Smith scenario, a combo of Matt and Luke is likely. I just haven't seen enough of Grayson to know whether he'd be in that PG mix. Truth is, of course, I've not seen Matt handle the ball much. Nor Luke .... but in the 2-3 times I've seen Luke, my assessment is that his handle is better than merely good. Also vision.

Lots of time to sort this one out. Hope Smith, Jr., joins the Devils.

I don't think it's irritating at all. For years, Coach K seemed to target recruits at certain positions and go all in on that one guy. In the mid-2000s, that apparent strategy appeared to backfire a couple times, and in recent years K seemed to have "widened his net." If Coach K is going back to the old ways, it presumably means (a) the kid (Smith, Jr) is really special; (b) Coach K is very confident he'll land him; or (c) there just aren't any other 2015 or 2016 PGs that Coach K is interested in. Or some combination of the three.

That said, missing on "all in" recruits has left us scrambling at certain positions in the not-too-distant past, so I think it's interesting to speculate on what the team would look like in the case of a miss.

It's even more interesting if you consider the possibility that three of our four 2014-15 freshmen could easily be gone by 2016-17. Unless we get Brandon Ingram, that would leave us with a known roster of:

Sean Obi
Semi Ojeleye
Matt Jones
Grayson Allen
Chase Jeter
Luke Kennard

So we're going to need a fairly large freshman class in 2016-17, with guys who can hopefully join the rotation at PG, SF and/or PF/C. Sounds like Smith, Jr., Tatum, and Giles would be pretty good fits.

[tommy]

Oh, I'm sorry. I misread your post. You may be right. It's also possible K thinks he can quickly come up with a backup plan if "only priority" Smith decides to go elsewhere.

Alternatively, he might feel that senior Matt Jones could man the point adequately. To me that seems more likely, if only because we've already seen Matt play college ball (unlike Luke) and Matt will be a senior. Or maybe some combination of Matt and Luke. I don't think there's anyway to know for sure at this point, but if Tyus leaves before his junior season and Dennis Smith, Jr., goes elsewhere, your hypothesis is certainly plausible.

Here's something else to consider: The staff was at Brandon Ingram's open gym yesterday, and Brandon is going to be playing a lot of point guard this coming year, at 6'8". His HS team needs him to do it, and he is showing the skills necessary to handle the job. The staff watched him play for over an hour yesterday, playing primarily the point. I don't know if he'll be able to handle it against pressure at the college level -- I haven't seen him pressured all over the court by high-level defenders -- but Grant Hill handled the ball a lot at 6'8" while at Duke, so who knows? Maybe Ingram could do the same.

[tommy]

Hey Tommy, as of right now, where do you think Giles, Tatum, and Smith Jr ultimately land? Many have Smith and Giles to Duke, and Tatum a battle between Duke and Kansas?

It's just too early to tell. I have a better feel for Smith than I do for the other two, and I like our chances -- at this point -- with him. He and Giles are good friends, and with Giles being a NC kid and Coach K and he having such a longstanding relationship, I think we're going to be right there for him too. Duke visited Tatum today, so I'll be curious to find out what the vibe is there post-visit. Also, Tatum has a very long list of serious big-time national suitors, as well as his more local ones. The competition for him is fierce.

We have to keep in mind that these kids have a long way to go before they're going to commit anywhere, and a lot can happen to change the dynamics that exist this far out. A lot.

[FerryFor50]

So we're going to need a fairly large freshman class in 2016-17, with guys who can hopefully join the rotation at PG, SF and/or PF/C. Sounds like Smith, Jr., Tatum, and Giles would be pretty good fits.

I thought the same.

I also thought it was funny that Smith said Duke would be "willing" to take a package deal of him, Tatum and Giles. OF COURSE THEY WOULD. That would be a fantastic class.

[jv001]

Here's something else to consider: The staff was at Brandon Ingram's open gym yesterday, and Brandon is going to be playing a lot of point guard this coming year, at 6'8". His HS team needs him to do it, and he is showing the skills necessary to handle the job. The staff watched him play for over an hour yesterday, playing primarily the point. I don't know if he'll be able to handle it against pressure at the college level -- I haven't seen him pressured all over the court by high-level defenders -- but Grant Hill handled the ball a lot at 6'8" while at Duke, so who knows? Maybe Ingram could do the same.

So did Billy King(6'7") and he did ok as well. Like you say, who knows? GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

So did Billy King(6'7") and he did ok as well. Like you say, who knows? GoDuke!

While Billy King did have 3.5 assists per game his senior season, he had the third-most assists on that team. So King handled and distributed the ball but he wasn't in any sense the point guard (Quin Snyder was). In his senior season, Grant Hill had more assists than Duke's next two top assist-getters combined. He didn't guard the other team's PG, but he essentially ran the team on offense.

Also, small nit-pick, but GoDuke.com lists Billy King at 6'6" (not 6'7").

[jimsumner]

While Billy King did have 3.5 assists per game his senior season, he had the third-most assists on that team. So King handled and distributed the ball but he wasn't in any sense the point guard (Quin Snyder was). In his senior season, Grant Hill had more assists than Duke's next two top assist-getters combined. He didn't guard the other team's PG, but he essentially ran the team on offense.

Also, small nit-pick, but GoDuke.com lists Billy King at 6'6" (not 6'7").

Small nit-pick but Grant Hill had 176 assists as a senior. Duke's next two assist-getters totaled 185, Capel with 108, Collins with 77.

[mr. synellinden]

While Billy King did have 3.5 assists per game his senior season, he had the third-most assists on that team. So King handled and distributed the ball but he wasn't in any sense the point guard (Quin Snyder was). In his senior season, Grant Hill had more assists than Duke's next two top assist-getters combined. He didn't guard the other team's PG, but he essentially ran the team on offense.

Also, small nit-pick, but GoDuke.com lists Billy King at 6'6" (not 6'7").

Billy King was a good passer for a wing player, but he was not a distributor/handler in the sense we are talking about and contemplating for Ingram. Billy was an average to maybe even slightly below average ball handler for his size/position. He rarely shot the ball, so he had plenty of opportunities to pass and get assists. Danny Ferry was a terrific passer for a big man. What made that '88 team so great was its defense. When people talk about Duke's pressure man-to-man defense and the ability to create offense off of defense through turnovers, the '88 team is one of the best examples - of course led by King, who was national defensive player of the year (just ask Mark Macon).

[Kedsy]

Small nit-pick but Grant Hill had 176 assists as a senior. Duke's next two assist-getters totaled 185, Capel with 108, Collins with 77.

Oops, my bad. For some reason I skipped over Chris Collins and added up Jeff Capel and Marty Clark (166).

[Henderson]

Smith's "only priority" comment did catch my eye, and raises questions, as Rasheed and probably Tyus will be gone.

****
Lots of time to sort this one out. Hope Smith, Jr., joins the Devils.

My recollection is that Kyrie Irving reported being impressed that K told him that K wanted him to be Duke's PG. The staff seems to be sending the same message to Smith, and it seems to be resonating.

I hope Tyus displays talent sufficient to make him an early-entry lottery guy. At this point, he's in my "TBD" category. The 2016 NBA mock drafts I've seen project him as a late 1st rounder in 2016. I think it's just too early to tell how he'll develop and how quickly.

[Kedsy]

My recollection is that Kyrie Irving reported being impressed that K told him that K wanted him to be Duke's PG. The staff seems to be sending the same message to Smith, and it seems to be resonating.

I hope Tyus displays talent sufficient to make him an early-entry lottery guy. At this point, he's in my "TBD" category. The 2016 NBA mock drafts I've seen project him as a late 1st rounder in 2016. I think it's just too early to tell how he'll develop and how quickly.

While NBADraftNet has Tyus Jones as the 26th pick in the 2016 Draft (and not in the 2015 mock at all), Draft Express has him 14th in the 2015 Draft, and NBA Draft Room has him "lottery to mid-first round pick" in the 2015 Draft.

That said, I agree with you that it's too early to tell for Tyus. NBADraftNet's scouting report describes Tyus as a crafty, above-average NBA starter with low-upside (due to lack of size, strength, and athleticism) who will probably struggle defensively and to finish over size in the NBA. If accurate, that doesn't sound like a guy that NBA teams will be scrambling over each other to take in the lottery.

And if that's true, he could be anywhere from a one-year guy in college to a four-year guy. We just won't know until we see him play, and even then, it depends on Tyus's desires. If he's already perceived as low-upside, then staying in school shouldn't hurt his draft stock. But since he's also generally perceived as the 2nd best PG in this year's high school class, he could probably leave at any time and get drafted in that same mid-first round area. It may all depend on whether he'd rather be in college or in the NBA.

[Henderson]

While NBADraftNet has Tyus Jones as the 26th pick in the 2016 Draft (and not in the 2015 mock at all), Draft Express has him 14th in the 2015 Draft, and NBA Draft Room has him "lottery to mid-first round pick" in the 2015 Draft.

That said, I agree with you that it's too early to tell for Tyus. NBADraftNet's scouting report describes Tyus as a crafty, above-average NBA starter with low-upside (due to lack of size, strength, and athleticism) who will probably struggle defensively and to finish over size in the NBA. If accurate, that doesn't sound like a guy that NBA teams will be scrambling over each other to take in the lottery.

And if that's true, he could be anywhere from a one-year guy in college to a four-year guy. We just won't know until we see him play, and even then, it depends on Tyus's desires. If he's already perceived as low-upside, then staying in school shouldn't hurt his draft stock. But since he's also generally perceived as the 2nd best PG in this year's high school class, he could probably leave at any time and get drafted in that same mid-first round area. It may all depend on whether he'd rather be in college or in the NBA.

Agree with all of this. Implicit I think in your comments is that his NBA draft stock may be revealed in the first year or two. If that's the case, he may not want to wait an extra year or two at Duke if doing so would not improve his stock. Being the 15th pick in 2016 is worth more financially than being the 15th pick in 2017. Possible NBA early-entry criteria changes add an extra variable for guys in his class.

[Kedsy]

Implicit I think in your comments is that his NBA draft stock may be revealed in the first year or two.

Could be. If the NBADraftNet scouting report accurately reflects what the real NBA scouts think, then I think there are three basic possibilities:

(1) He shows in his first year or two that he's way better than his high school scouting report (in which case, he should probably enter the earliest draft after this occurs);

(2) He doesn't live up to the current scouting report (in which case, he should probably stay four years);

(3) The scouting report proves to be accurate (in which case he should enter the draft when it feels right for him -- the only cost/benefit is how much he enjoys college vs. the extra money from entering the draft earlier).

Since his supposed weaknesses (lack of size, lack of athleticism) are unlikely to change, I suspect the most likely possibility is #3 above, which would imply that his draft stock will stay the same between now and whenever he decides to go pro. However, your observation is still accurate, because we can't rule out #1 or #2 until we see him play on the college level for at least a little while.

[BD80]

... What made that '88 team so great was its defense. ... - of course led by King, who was national defensive player of the year (just ask Mark Macon).

No. Please don't ask Mark. I understand that he still dissolves into a puddle of goo at the mere mention of Billy King's name.

[Skitzle]

While NBADraftNet has Tyus Jones as the 26th pick in the 2016 Draft (and not in the 2015 mock at all), Draft Express has him 14th in the 2015 Draft, and NBA Draft Room has him "lottery to mid-first round pick" in the 2015 Draft.

That said, I agree with you that it's too early to tell for Tyus. NBADraftNet's scouting report describes Tyus as a crafty, above-average NBA starter with low-upside (due to lack of size, strength, and athleticism) who will probably struggle defensively and to finish over size in the NBA. If accurate, that doesn't sound like a guy that NBA teams will be scrambling over each other to take in the lottery.

And if that's true, he could be anywhere from a one-year guy in college to a four-year guy. We just won't know until we see him play, and even then, it depends on Tyus's desires. If he's already perceived as low-upside, then staying in school shouldn't hurt his draft stock. But since he's also generally perceived as the 2nd best PG in this year's high school class, he could probably leave at any time and get drafted in that same mid-first round area. It may all depend on whether he'd rather be in college or in the NBA.

This doesn't matter, unlike John Calipari, Coach K hold his kids back so they DONT succeed in the NBA. Players like Mason Plumlee stay for too long hurts their draft stock and their NBA potential and earnings.

K will hide Jones behind Cook at PG. Giving him limited time to shine, forcing him back for next year.

OBVIOUSLY!

PS. This post is dripping with sarcasm.

[rhynelander]

http://247sports.com/Bolt/Duke-offer...guard-32026783

let the Smith vs. Thornton vs. Smith &Thornton combo backcourt debate begin...

[camion]

I vote for &.

[jimsumner]

I vote for &.

Highly, highly unlikely Duke would get both. For all practical purposes, I believe they are mutually exclusive.