ACC Preview - N. C. State

[gw67]

I enjoyed DBR's preview of State, particularly, the snippets of information on the new players. There is nothing new about the evaluation - State has a strong and deep frontcourt, an unknown situation at point guard and two good scorers at off guard and wing. Like most teams, they will settle on 8-9 players to do most of the playing. They should challenge the Devils for second place in the conference but they need to settle on a point guard and they also need to find another guard to spell Grant. Horner can provide relief for Fells at forward but then moving Fells to guard to spell Grant didn't seem to work in the games I watched last year. Fells didn't share the ball and was poor on the defensive end against smaller players.

gw67

[riverside6]

It seemed as though NC State was a different team last season without Engin Atsur, and unfortunately for Gavin Grant's predictions, Atsur is gone. That being said, I wanted to look at the numbers to see if I could prove anything...

With Atsur playing <= 7 minutes, NC State averaged

13 Games
72.8 PPG
14.7 APG
15.9 TPG
49&#37; FG
76% FT
35% 3P

With Atsur playing > 7 minutes, NC State averaged...

23 Games
71 PPG
14.4 APG
14.2 TPG
49% FG
71% FT
36% 3P

The turnovers drop, but I guess I'm a little surprised the numbers aren't a little more drastic than they are. Perhaps the Atsur effect was overblown by myself.

[JasonEvans]

This may seem crazy, but I sorta wonder if the extra depth and expectations may hurt State a little bit. Sometimes players perform better when they know they do not need to look over their shoulder to see if someone is waiting to sub for them. They certainly play looser with no expectations on them.

Last season, the State big men, Costner and McCauley, were unhearalded and unknown. They played loose and played hard and took many teams by surprise. I mean, these were the same guys who barely sniffed mop-up minutes as freshmen and suddenly, as sophs, they were playing 35 minutes a game and racking up double-doubles left and right. I just think there is a chance they may struggle a bit with enhansed expectations this year.

Also, while they played well late in the year, we are talking about a team that lost 16 games last season-- many of them by double digits. How often do teams go from winning 5 ACC games to winning 10 ACC games?

Still, on paper State looks very impressive. If anybody can play halfway decent PG they look to be a very tough team. In fact, I think a very decent case can be made for picking them ahead of Duke in the ACC.

--Jason "it'll be interesting to see how Lowe does with enhansed expectations too -- NC State fans can be awful demanding" Evans

[riverside6]

This may seem crazy, but I sorta wonder if the extra depth and expectations may hurt State a little bit. Sometimes players perform better when they know they do not need to look over their shoulder to see if someone is waiting to sub for them. They certainly play looser with no expectations on them.

Last season, the State big men, Costner and McCauley, were unhearalded and unknown. They played loose and played hard and took many teams by surprise. I mean, these were the same guys who barely sniffed mop-up minutes as freshmen and suddenly, as sophs, they were playing 35 minutes a game and racking up double-doubles left and right. I just think there is a chance they may struggle a bit with enhansed expectations this year.

Also, while they played well late in the year, we are talking about a team that lost 16 games last season-- many of them by double digits. How often do teams go from winning 5 ACC games to winning 10 ACC games?

Still, on paper State looks very impressive. If anybody can play halfway decent PG they look to be a very tough team. In fact, I think a very decent case can be made for picking them ahead of Duke in the ACC.

--Jason "it'll be interesting to see how Lowe does with enhansed expectations too -- NC State fans can be awful demanding" Evans

I completely agree, transitioning from the team that has no pressure on them to a team that must meet expectations is tough. Then again, Gonzaga did it.

[Wander]

The turnovers drop, but I guess I'm a little surprised the numbers aren't a little more drastic than they are. Perhaps the Atsur effect was overblown by myself.

You left out the most important stat: wins and losses.

With Atsur injured, NC State was 1-4 in the ACC, and 0-6 against postseason teams.

With Atsur healthy, NC State was 7-8 in the ACC, and 10-8 against postseason teams.

[riverside6]

You left out the most important stat: wins and losses.

With Atsur injured, NC State was 1-4 in the ACC, and 0-6 against postseason teams.

With Atsur healthy, NC State was 7-8 in the ACC, and 10-8 against postseason teams.

Good point, I should have looked at points allowed per game as well, although I don't have time to pull it. Atsur's defense certainly shouldn't be underestimated and as Duke fans we all know the importance of a point guard who can defend.

[Classof06]

I completely agree, transitioning from the team that has no pressure on them to a team that must meet expectations is tough. Then again, Gonzaga did it.

If NC State doesn't live up to expectations, that is solely their fault. Despite the fact that State fans can be demanding, that didn't stop Gavin Grant from establishing quite lofty preseason standards:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=2969060


That being said, I still think Duke and NC State are the two best teams in the ACC after UNC. I expect us both to finish 2 and 3 in the league; who finishes 2 and who finishes 3 is obviously TBD.

[SilkyJ]

That being said, I still think Duke and NC State are the two best teams in the ACC after UNC. I expect us both to finish 2 and 3 in the league; who finishes 2 and who finishes 3 is obviously TBD.

While who will finish 2/3 (and #1 for that matter) are all TBD, I think it is clear that we are much more talented that State. In fact, its really not even close, imho. Bring into the fact that you will have a lot of young guys playing a lot of minutes, and no PG, mean that they probably will lose some games that they should win b/c of turnovers/bad decicions, etc. So even if by the end of the year State has become as good or better then we are, I expect to finish ahead of them in the ACC.

Wouldn't be surprised if their rotation firms up late in the season and if they made another late run in the ACC/NCAA tourney...(especially if their freshman PG matures throughout the year, which often happens with PGs...especially ones who are coach by an ex- PG)