2014 USA National Team Pre-Tournament Thread

[COYS]

I have a theory. And I can't really justify it with numbers, stats, or historical evidence. But my theory is this: basketball is absolutely becoming a more international game. You are seeing more international players come into the NBA. But the number of international stars has gone down in the last 10 years or so.

In the early-mid 2000s, the following good-to-great players came to prominence:
-Dirk N
-Tony P
-Manu G
-Zydrunas I
-Hedo T
-Luol D
-Andrei K
-Peja S
-Yao M
-Pau G
-Steve N

In the last 5-8 years, these are the international good-to-great players who came to prominence:
-Joakim N
-Al Horford
-Marc G
-Serge I
-Doran G
-Andrew B
-Ricky R?

I am probably missing a few. But if you look at the first list, you see plenty of stars (or players playing second or third banana on their team). In the second list, it's significantly more restricted.

Again, I'm not arguing that there are less international players in the game. That is just not true. But I am saying that the number of internationals stars has decreased, and I believe this is having an impact on the ability to beat the US in international play.

I hope that everyone overlooks the US. And I'm sure they will. I really want to see the US play with a chip on their shoulder. That would be fascinating.

Of course, you also have to take into account the fact that more money is poured into the European leagues now (and even China is getting into the action). This isn't to say that potential NBA superstars are staying in Europe rather than playing in the NBA, but it's definitely not a clear-cut decision for players to leave Europe for the NBA. Rubio stayed in Europe for a few extra years even though he was a high draft pick. Tiago Splitter was originally going to declare for the 2006 draft, but NBA teams balked at paying his buyout. Then, instead of coming over from Europe right away in 2007, he stayed in the Spanish League, making eight times what he would make as an NBA rookie (San Antonio, always masterful at managing cap space, figured this was a possibility). (All this info is from his wikipedia page) Andrei Kirilenko even left the NBA for a while during the strike-shortened season because he could make good money in Europe.

This isn't to say that surefire stars are staying in Europe instead of coming to the United States, but it does seem that it's getting harder to get prospects and established players who are unlikely to be stars in the NBA to take less money to play in the NBA when they can make more in Europe. While the NBA might be lacking a little bit in fresh international star power at the moment, I think that's more of a fluke than anything else. Of those guys in the first list that you made from the 2000's, only Dirk is a surefire Hall-of-Famer (Parker and Ginobli will likely be knocking on the door and Yao probably would have been if it weren't for his unfortunate series of injuries). That no one else has had that type of career doesn't necessarily speak to a lack in the over all talent level of international players (Horford may not be Dirk, but when he's been healthy he has been outstanding). I would be willing to bet that European teams, as a whole, are generally deeper and more talented than they were 20 or even 10 years ago, it's just that a lot of the guys who would be rotation players/end of bench guys in the NBA are staying in Europe. Remember, the Greek team that managed to hand Coach K his only loss as the head coach of the national team didn't feature an NBA star. I would argue that the Spanish teams that the USA has defeated in the gold medal games of the past two Olympics have actually been the best international teams the USA has ever had to face, including Argentina from the 2004 Olympics. Still, the USA has emerged victorious.

I think the USA's winning streak has more to do with the fact that the USA still has, by far, the best talent pool. The losses in the early 2000's and even 2006 can easily be explained by the rest of the world catching up a bit in talent level and the fact that the USA's basketball program's philosophy was basically roll the ball out there and see what happens ever few years. Even with the best players, other countries feature enough depth of talent to beat the USA if the USA doesn't prepare properly. As we've talkied about before, Coach K's and Colangelo's greatest legacy will be the establishment of a program designed to develop the national team beginning at the youth ranks. As long as that commitment continues, I don't see the USA losing its place as the team to beat anytime soon, even if we do lose a game here or there.

[MarkD83]

As we've talkied about before, Coach K's and Colangelo's greatest legacy will be the establishment of a program designed to develop the national team beginning at the youth ranks. As long as that commitment continues, I don't see the USA losing its place as the team to beat anytime soon, even if we do lose a game here or there.

To add to this, the legacy is that USA basketball has a talent pool that is not just the superstars in the NBA but the talented role players that are needed on a team. The selection of 5 PF/C for the current team is a good example. For the next olympics I fully expect to see a different mix of players depending upon how other nations put together their teams.

The other thing that we may be missing is that the past paradigm was that other national teams played together for long periods of time so played better team basketball than the USA. I think the rest of the world has slipped back a bit in this area because the best international players are in the NBA. For example, Ricky R and the Gasols do not get a lot of time to practice together because they have an 82 game schedule to deal with and the NBA playoffs.

[superdave]

The fact that each of the top ten listings is related to at least one other top ten listing (4 of the 1992 team) reduces the meaningfulness of the statistic as to each individual. How much did Lebron play with Paul to achieve that +/- ? How much credit goes to Paul for setting up baskets or pressuring the ball, allowing Lebron to coast, conserving energy to take a more active role when Paul was out?

Statistics. Particularly over such small sample sizes in such disparate circumstances.

538's plus/minus stats are not from international play but from the two NBA seasons immediately preceding and following the international event. Here is the excerpt from the article -

To measure this, I used Statistical Plus/Minus (SPM), a box-score-based metric that tries to estimate a player’s on-court influence per 100 possessions. (For current players, I’d normally use ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus, but for this exercise we also need numbers for players going back to the early 1990s.) By averaging together each player on a given team’s NBA performance in the seasons before and after a particular international tournament — both FIBA events and the Olympics — we can approximate how much talent each American roster had to work with.

[COYS]

To add to this, the legacy is that USA basketball has a talent pool that is not just the superstars in the NBA but the talented role players that are needed on a team. The selection of 5 PF/C for the current team is a good example. For the next olympics I fully expect to see a different mix of players depending upon how other nations put together their teams.

.

It's also been amazing how stars have been convinced to play bit parts. Cousins is a borderline All Star and yet he seems perfectly happy and committed to coming off the bench. Steph Curry is an All Star point guard who is having no problem playing off the ball (aside from fouling too much) and mostly acting as a spot up shooter. Andre Drummond is one of the best rebounders on the planet and yet he may only see bit minutes on this team. And that's just from this year's squad. Kobe, who has never wanted to play second fiddle, had no problem taking on the role of defensive stopper on that 2008 team and then took an even smaller offensive role in 2012. Carmelo Anthony, another guy who does not seem all that anxious to share the spotlight, filled the role of a super sub perfectly. Does anyone remember how, in 2012 against a weak Tunisian team, Coach K did what he has done at Duke and benched all five of his starters at once to start the second half to send a message to his starters? Those starters were Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, and Tyson Chandler. I bet those guys had never been benched like that before in their entire careers. Yet, rather than wining or pouting, they responded by playing spectacularly for the rest of the game. After poor preparation and bad chemistry made 2000 a close call and then doomed the 2004 team, it is impressive how quickly the culture has changed.

[tux]

I think the 538 data more or less confirm our collective eye tests.

I'd fall back to the obvious: basketball is a game of parity. A team can get hot and hit shots even if facing a good/great defense. More talented teams can go through cold spells and get upset by less talented teams. The medal round is like the NCAA tournament --- anything can happen and almost everything will happen eventually.

One of my pet peeves is fans announcing how bad a team played defense (in a given game) based on the other team's point total (or shooting percentage). You can play very solid defense and still get beat. Guys hit shots with a hand in their face... it's part of the game.

[FerryFor50]

It's also been amazing how stars have been convinced to play bit parts. Cousins is a borderline All Star and yet he seems perfectly happy and committed to coming off the bench. Steph Curry is an All Star point guard who is having no problem playing off the ball (aside from fouling too much) and mostly acting as a spot up shooter. Andre Drummond is one of the best rebounders on the planet and yet he may only see bit minutes on this team. And that's just from this year's squad. Kobe, who has never wanted to play second fiddle, had no problem taking on the role of defensive stopper on that 2008 team and then took an even smaller offensive role in 2012. Carmelo Anthony, another guy who does not seem all that anxious to share the spotlight, filled the role of a super sub perfectly. Does anyone remember how, in 2012 against a weak Tunisian team, Coach K did what he has done at Duke and benched all five of his starters at once to start the second half to send a message to his starters? Those starters were Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, and Tyson Chandler. I bet those guys had never been benched like that before in their entire careers. Yet, rather than wining or pouting, they responded by playing spectacularly for the rest of the game. After poor preparation and bad chemistry made 2000 a close call and then doomed the 2004 team, it is impressive how quickly the culture has changed.

Honestly, I believe most of these star players are pretty realistic. The only time they generally have issues with playing time is if they see guys they feel they are better than getting more time than they are. On the US Basketball team, it's hard for most players to make a case that they're that much better than the guy playing ahead of them. The only guys I feel who would have issues with not playing enough would be Harden and maybe one of the PGs.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Of course, you also have to take into account the fact that more money is poured into the European leagues now (and even China is getting into the action). This isn't to say that potential NBA superstars are staying in Europe rather than playing in the NBA, but it's definitely not a clear-cut decision for players to leave Europe for the NBA. Rubio stayed in Europe for a few extra years even though he was a high draft pick. Tiago Splitter was originally going to declare for the 2006 draft, but NBA teams balked at paying his buyout. Then, instead of coming over from Europe right away in 2007, he stayed in the Spanish League, making eight times what he would make as an NBA rookie (San Antonio, always masterful at managing cap space, figured this was a possibility). (All this info is from his wikipedia page) Andrei Kirilenko even left the NBA for a while during the strike-shortened season because he could make good money in Europe.

This isn't to say that surefire stars are staying in Europe instead of coming to the United States, but it does seem that it's getting harder to get prospects and established players who are unlikely to be stars in the NBA to take less money to play in the NBA when they can make more in Europe. While the NBA might be lacking a little bit in fresh international star power at the moment, I think that's more of a fluke than anything else. Of those guys in the first list that you made from the 2000's, only Dirk is a surefire Hall-of-Famer (Parker and Ginobli will likely be knocking on the door and Yao probably would have been if it weren't for his unfortunate series of injuries). That no one else has had that type of career doesn't necessarily speak to a lack in the over all talent level of international players (Horford may not be Dirk, but when he's been healthy he has been outstanding). I would be willing to bet that European teams, as a whole, are generally deeper and more talented than they were 20 or even 10 years ago, it's just that a lot of the guys who would be rotation players/end of bench guys in the NBA are staying in Europe. Remember, the Greek team that managed to hand Coach K his only loss as the head coach of the national team didn't feature an NBA star. I would argue that the Spanish teams that the USA has defeated in the gold medal games of the past two Olympics have actually been the best international teams the USA has ever had to face, including Argentina from the 2004 Olympics. Still, the USA has emerged victorious.

I think the USA's winning streak has more to do with the fact that the USA still has, by far, the best talent pool. The losses in the early 2000's and even 2006 can easily be explained by the rest of the world catching up a bit in talent level and the fact that the USA's basketball program's philosophy was basically roll the ball out there and see what happens ever few years. Even with the best players, other countries feature enough depth of talent to beat the USA if the USA doesn't prepare properly. As we've talkied about before, Coach K's and Colangelo's greatest legacy will be the establishment of a program designed to develop the national team beginning at the youth ranks. As long as that commitment continues, I don't see the USA losing its place as the team to beat anytime soon, even if we do lose a game here or there.

I'm not disagreeing with you on most accounts. The talent around the world is getting better. The leagues in Europe are getting better. But the number of European stars are decreasing, and I feel that this is having at least some effect on the international pool. Dirk, Parker, Ginobs, and Steven Nash are sure-fire Hall of Famers. I don't think that's debatable for any of the four. Yao is borderline, although his effect on basketball in China could get him into the Hall of Fame (and probably will).

Also, having better European leagues actually does the US a favor from an international perspective. I compare it to the MLS. The MLS is not a competitive league. If the players stay there, they aren't going to develop and become world class players. No player who played his prime in the MLS has ever been considered a world-class player. The same goes for basketball in European leagues. If you want to be the best, you aren't going to stay in Europe. Sure, the pay may be better. Sure, they may be comfortable. But there is no way that playing in the European leagues makes you world class nor can you be compared to NBA players.

Bottomline, if really solid European players want to stay in Europe and make more money, that works out for the US. And I think we're starting to see that.

[g-money]

Sorry I've been out of the loop, but when the heck is this tournament going to start? Isn't the NBA season right around the corner?

At least football is back. Ever since the (real) WC ended, baseball has done nothing but make me comfortably numb.

[gumbomoop]

Sorry I've been out of the loop, but when the heck is this tournament going to start?

August 30. Final is Sept. 14.

http://www.fiba.com/en/Module/C9DAD8...c-6356b653578d

[Billy Dat]

Mason & Andre Drummond getting some culture in Bilbao
https://twitter.com/masonplumlee/sta...189376/photo/1

[FerryFor50]

Mason & Andre Drummond getting some culture in Bilbao
https://twitter.com/masonplumlee/sta...189376/photo/1

Hey, Mason is wearing a shirt!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Hey, Mason is wearing a shirt!

Well, Bilbao ain't China!

[94duke]

August 30. Final is Sept. 14.

http://www.fiba.com/en/Module/C9DAD8...c-6356b653578d

Here is a schedule of the US games from the USA Basketball site. It includes TV times and the results of the three exhibition games.
http://www.usab.com/mens/national-team/schedule.aspx

[Billy Dat]

With the tournament ready to open, there is a ton of coverage starting to hit:

Power Ranking of all participating teams - via Marc Stein
http://espn.go.com/blog/marc-stein/p...ld-cup-edition

Must watch players - $ - via Frank Frashilla
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...playerstowatch

Never Mind the Gasols! Go, Team USA! It’s Time for the FIBA Basketball World Cup!
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/go...up-wolverines/

[Billy Dat]

Nice piece on the Team USA assistant coaches, including Capel

http://www.usab.com/news-events/news...n-numbers.aspx

[pfrduke]

Now that the cup is about to begin, this thread is closed. Please visit this one to discuss all World Cup action.