MBB: Duke at Miami - Pre-Game and In-Game Thread (Wed 1930 EST, Espn2)

[JBDuke]

Duke travels to southern Florida for a matchup with the 'Canes Wednesday night at 7:30 pm. The game will be televised on ESPN2.

Please put your pre-game and in-game thoughts here.

[davekay1971]

This could be an important growth game for our team. They played extremely well in destroying State in Cameron. Doing that against a better coached team, away from home, is the next challenge. Even more importantly, responding, away from home, when the opponent ups their intensity, is a challenge this team has yet to meet. We've been the scariest team in America with a 10 point lead and less than 10 minutes to go (and not in a good way). We all know the upside that this team has. We all know Coach K is about the best coach in America to help a team achieve that upside. I think they took a big step yesterday. Doing it on the road, against a Jim Larranaga coached team, is another story, and would be a huge step forward.

[Troublemaker]

This is the real test, as much as I enjoyed drilling NCSU.

Larranaga will actually have a good gameplan that tests our weaknesses.

Disregard Miami's 147th offense ranking in KenPom. They're going to play much better than that.

Larranaga is going to spread us out, sometimes lifting all five of his players beyond the 3-pt line. Once spread out, he's going to try to drive, ball screen and drive, backdoor bounce-pass, and backdoor lob Duke to death. Can we finally defend those things? That's the test.

Oh, and they play a very good matchup zone as well. Will we struggle or will we pick that apart?

[Saratoga2]

Coach K came up with the concept of line change to get this team going, something virtually no one on the board had suggested. I think he is up to the task of getting the most from these kids at this time. It will be a challenge since it is a road game against a scrappy well coached team. Go Duke!

[devildeac]

In the Raleigh N&O today, K expressed gratitude to the former POTUS for attending the game yesterday and referred to him as a good luck charm, inviting him to the game in Miami, too. K didn't think he'd attend so K said we'd just have to do it on our own. He also referenced some extra work Parker had done with Capel the last several days in recognizing what the defense was allowing and allowing him a bit more freedom in exercising his own judgment whether to shoot/drive/pass. Looking forward to more of that against the U.

[cptnflash]

This is the real test, as much as I enjoyed drilling NCSU.
Larranaga will actually have a good gameplan that tests our weaknesses.

Disregard Miami's 147th offense ranking in KenPom. They're going to play much better than that.

Larranaga is going to spread us out, sometimes lifting all five of his players beyond the 3-pt line. Once spread out, he's going to try to drive, ball screen and drive, backdoor bounce-pass, and backdoor lob Duke to death. Can we finally defend those things? That's the test.

Oh, and they play a very good matchup zone as well. Will we struggle or will we pick that apart?

+1 to that assessment. I actually think the next four games are the most important (and certainly the most difficult) 4 game stretch of our season. If we can take 3 of the next 4, I'll be ecstatic. It gets much easier after that.

[hurleyfor3]

Miami has the slowest tempo in all of D-I. Fourth from the bottom is Clemson.

[Olympic Fan]

Disregard Miami's 147th offense ranking in KenPom. They're going to play much better than that.

Actually, I think Miami's offensive ranking is well earned.

The 'Canes do other things well ... they control tempo (as hurley noted -- they play the slowest tempo in Div. 1). They play good defense (third in ACC play in field goal percentage defense) and they don't foul. They rebound at just about the same rate as Duke (slightly better offensive rebound rate, slightly worse defensive rebound rate)

But their offense is not very good -- I'm not basing that on the fact that they are last in the ACC in scoring (that's a function of their tempo), but they are 13th in the ACC field goal percentage, 11th in 3-point percentage and in a three-way tie for ninth in turnover margin.

I'm basing those rankings on play in the ACC, since in the pre-ACC season, they were pretty bad, losing at home to the likes of St. Francis and Central Florida. During this period, they also lost an early ACC game at home (in OT) to a terrible Virginia Tech team.

But since conference play started for real after New Year's, Miami has been VERY tough to play -- they won at UNC, led Syracuse at Syracuse at the final TV timeout and now have won at Georgia Tech. They did also lose by 10 at home to FSU.

Obviously, it took Larranaga time to put this team together. He graduated the top six players off last year's team. The No. 7 man from last year -- senior wingman Rion Brown -- is his top scorer, although he's shooting just 40.4 percent from the floor and 28.4 from the 3-point line. The No. 2 scorer is fifth year senior wing Garrius Adams, who missed last season with an injury.

I think their two most dangerous players are fifth-year senior big man Donnavan Kirk and junior power forward James Kelly. They get support from a rough, but very athletic center in Tonye Jekiri.

Two freshmen share the point -- Manu Lecomte is a tiny playmaker from Belgium, while Davon Reed is a combo guard who has never played the position before.

Amazing to me how old they were. After last year, they lost a 6-year senior, a fifth-year senior and four regular seniors. This team plays two fifth-year seniors (Adams and Kirk) and two four-year seniors (Brown and Swoope). Only the two points are young.

It's a team Duke will beat if the Devils play well ... but it's going to be a long, frustrating night.

[pfrduke]

We've got to try to speed Miami up. They've been excellent at controlling pace this season and both their offense and defense plays better (on average) in lower possession games.

[Bob Green]

A subplot for this game is the need for the team to win a road game prior to traveling to Pitt and Syracuse. Let's beat the 'Canes to start a road winning streak and carry it forward against the Panthers and Orange.

[RoyalBlue08]

We've got to try to speed Miami up. They've been excellent at controlling pace this season and both their offense and defense plays better (on average) in lower possession games.

It would be nice to speed them up, but you also have to be careful how you do this. Carolina tried to trap and press them, and got torn to pieces with precision passing. It might be that we could do a better job with quicker athletes and just a better effort, but it could also backfire.

[DBFAN]

I still haven't figured out how SYU still hasn't had to play a decent team on the road in conference play. I know this seems childish, and it all evens out eventually, but Duke has to play SYU, Pitt, and UNC on the road in the First half, while SYU only road games thus far in Conference is BC, and VT ( I think, I could be wrong), and I'm not really sure if VT constitutes as a real team

[Dukehky]

I think that we really need to take care of business in these next two games. I'm sure the game at Miami last year, although two completely different teams, is still fresh in the minds of our returning players and has been conveyed to the new guys. I actually expect us to win this game handily, which is the first time I've thought that going on the road this year.

We need this game and FSU pretty badly before we hit the brutal back to back at Pitt and at Cuse. Ideally we win both of those games, but realistically I think that getting 1 of the 2 would be a big accomplishment. This is a key stretch in the ACC season, and at Miami will show if Duke has actually grown or if we just beat two decent and/or bad teams at home. Winning on the road in the ACC as proven to be kind of a crap shoots, but good teams win on the road, so I think we'll see if we really have turned the corner in Coral Gables. For the record, I think we have. I just hope K doesn't revert to old habits of playing 6-7 guys because Miami doesn't have a Shane Larkin this year. Put Sheed, Jones, Thornton on their PG and wear his backside out.

[Clay Feet POF]

,
I just hope K doesn't revert to old habits of playing 6-7 guys because Miami doesn't have a Shane Larkin this year. Put Sheed, Jones, Thornton on their PG and wear his backside out.

Agree in spades, this is not the time to slow down our developement and lose the energy & identity the team is building.

[bbosbbos]

Miami's zone almost killed Cuse @ Cuse. I am not sure if speeding up game will be a solution. Against zone Dre might be one answer.

[FerryFor50]

Actually, I think Miami's offensive ranking is well earned.

The 'Canes do other things well ... they control tempo (as hurley noted -- they play the slowest tempo in Div. 1). They play good defense (third in ACC play in field goal percentage defense) and they don't foul. They rebound at just about the same rate as Duke (slightly better offensive rebound rate, slightly worse defensive rebound rate)

But their offense is not very good -- I'm not basing that on the fact that they are last in the ACC in scoring (that's a function of their tempo), but they are 13th in the ACC field goal percentage, 11th in 3-point percentage and in a three-way tie for ninth in turnover margin.

I'm basing those rankings on play in the ACC, since in the pre-ACC season, they were pretty bad, losing at home to the likes of St. Francis and Central Florida. During this period, they also lost an early ACC game at home (in OT) to a terrible Virginia Tech team.

But since conference play started for real after New Year's, Miami has been VERY tough to play -- they won at UNC, led Syracuse at Syracuse at the final TV timeout and now have won at Georgia Tech. They did also lose by 10 at home to FSU.

Obviously, it took Larranaga time to put this team together. He graduated the top six players off last year's team. The No. 7 man from last year -- senior wingman Rion Brown -- is his top scorer, although he's shooting just 40.4 percent from the floor and 28.4 from the 3-point line. The No. 2 scorer is fifth year senior wing Garrius Adams, who missed last season with an injury.

I think their two most dangerous players are fifth-year senior big man Donnavan Kirk and junior power forward James Kelly. They get support from a rough, but very athletic center in Tonye Jekiri.

Two freshmen share the point -- Manu Lecomte is a tiny playmaker from Belgium, while Davon Reed is a combo guard who has never played the position before.

Amazing to me how old they were. After last year, they lost a 6-year senior, a fifth-year senior and four regular seniors. This team plays two fifth-year seniors (Adams and Kirk) and two four-year seniors (Brown and Swoope). Only the two points are young.

It's a team Duke will beat if the Devils play well ... but it's going to be a long, frustrating night.

Agreed.

Larranaga's teams generally play a slow pace. Last season's Miami team, which had some real skill players, played at the 20th best efficiency (112 points per 100 possessions), which was an anomaly for Larranaga coache teams. The previous year's team was 183rd.

This season's team plays slow because it has to. It's not very good offensively, so they cover up that deficiency with good defense. If Duke wants to win this game, they will probably need to score 70 or more. While Miami does have some completely head scratching, awful losses (and close wins) early, they've played better lately. They only lost by 5 to Syracuse (and had a real chance to pull it out), and of course, beat our friends down the road at the Dome.

They also have some players that concern me that have not been mentioned here...

Rion Brown will be a handful, I think. He can slash and shoot. He also rebounds well from the guard position and is 6'6".

Tonye Jekirir is a big, physical 7 footer who can rebound.

I also worry about Swoope, who is strong and athletic. But there is no Shane Larkin, no Reggie Johnson, no Kenny Kadji, no Durand Scott, no Trey McKinney-Jones. So, I don't see the offense being a problem, especially if Duke ends up pressuring the ball all game like they did against State. If they force turnovers and turn them into points, then Miami's defense won't be a problem either...

[Troublemaker]

I still haven't figured out how SYU still hasn't had to play a decent team on the road in conference play. I know this seems childish, and it all evens out eventually, but Duke has to play SYU, Pitt, and UNC on the road in the First half, while SYU only road games thus far in Conference is BC, and VT ( I think, I could be wrong), and I'm not really sure if VT constitutes as a real team

Schedules don't really even out without a double round-robin in place (and even then, the timing of when you play certain teams could be a factor.)

Syracuse has a very tough schedule down the stretch.

By the end of conference season, I'm pretty sure we're going to regard UVA and/or Pitt as the biggest threats to win the regular season. It just doesn't seem that way now, when Syracuse is undefeated and #2 in the country and so forth.

[Troublemaker]

Actually, I think Miami's offensive ranking is well earned.

Hey OF, the reason I believe Miami's offense is more dangerous to Duke than their ranking suggests is because Larranaga will spread Duke out, ball screen drive, and backdoor. Stuff that, for example, NCSU didn't do. Plus, we'll be on the road. To me, Wednesday will be a big test for Duke on both ends of the court, not just on offense against Miami's tough matchup zone and slow-down pace. We can certainly pass the test against Miami's offense, perhaps with flying colors if Duke has truly turned the corner, but the test is coming.

There's one particular lineup they have used and might use against Duke that will be interesting. Donovan Kirk at center, 3 wings, and Lecomte at point guard. They run 5-out motion with that lineup, similar to how Notre Dame beat Duke down the stretch. They run it with less skilled offensive players than ND but perhaps with more athleticism. If they use it, it'll be interesting to see how well we guard it.

Garrius Adams is a candidate for Duke guards to help off of. He's only shooting 24% from three and 42% from two. Jones and Thornton can cheat towards the middle and go for strips if they are guarding him.

[Furniture]

Coach K came up with the concept of line change to get this team going, something virtually no one on the board had suggested. I think he is up to the task of getting the most from these kids at this time. It will be a challenge since it is a road game against a scrappy well coached team. Go Duke!

I thought I heard that the other coaches came up with the line change concept for this team.

[Newton_14]

I think that we really need to take care of business in these next two games. I'm sure the game at Miami last year, although two completely different teams, is still fresh in the minds of our returning players and has been conveyed to the new guys. I actually expect us to win this game handily, which is the first time I've thought that going on the road this year.

We need this game and FSU pretty badly before we hit the brutal back to back at Pitt and at Cuse. Ideally we win both of those games, but realistically I think that getting 1 of the 2 would be a big accomplishment. This is a key stretch in the ACC season, and at Miami will show if Duke has actually grown or if we just beat two decent and/or bad teams at home. Winning on the road in the ACC as proven to be kind of a crap shoots, but good teams win on the road, so I think we'll see if we really have turned the corner in Coral Gables. For the record, I think we have. I just hope K doesn't revert to old habits of playing 6-7 guys because Miami doesn't have a Shane Larkin this year. Put Sheed, Jones, Thornton on their PG and wear his backside out.

I would just encourage folks, to not look beyond one game at a time. This Duke team is a work in progress who have now taken two steps forward over the last week, and this will be our 3rd game with the new rotation and playing style. From that standpoint, we are 2-0 with our first road game coming up. If our guys play like they have played the last two games they will have an excellent chance to win, but I certainly am not going to predict a victory let alone a comfortable one. Miami has been playing really good basketball. We will have to earn the victory Wednesday.