Possible Changes

[mattman91]

what big guy is K watching Plumlee go up against in practice?

Zafirovski!

[sagegrouse]

A few points on the much maligned duo of Josh and Tyler...

1. They ALWAYS play with great effort.
2. They are two of the few players on the team that consistently help and play physical, team-oriented defense. Many of their fouls are doing the dirty work that others are failing to do on the front end and unwilling to do on the back end (we have enough guys willing to stand right next to the basket with their hands straight up or stand near the 3 point line and watch while their teammates get beat to the hoop -- watch the tape). Thank goodness we have at least 2 guys willing to support their teammates and play solid team-oriented defense.
3. They generally avoid taking bad/selfish shots. We have enough guys to score (and who at times get too self-focused).
4. They are exceptional and positive teammates.
5. I wish some of our supposed more talented players were more of 1-4.

This thing can get turned around if more players consistently play in the passionate, team-focused way that Josh and Tyler do.

To which we can add the variant of the old carpet ad, "A title on the door rates a Bigelow on the floor." To wit,

"A body all a-tore shows that Tyler's on the floor."

Ain't no such thing as a cheap foul with Tyler and Josh.

[Furniture]

How do players like Sheed, Amile, Matt and even Murphy feel when players with less talent(let's face it) get preferred as starters and get more minutes when things don't go to plan? Yes, it sends a tough message but it can go another way. I think we may have chemistry, morale and confidence issues.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

what big guy is K watching Plumlee go up against in practice?

I'm sorry, I'm just not in the "MP3 is the answer to all our prayers" camp. I don't understand why so many folks here think that since he hasn't played much, he's some hidden gem and Coach K is intentionally impeding his development.

Please, show me some evidence rather than just "he hasn't played, but he's the solution." In the absence of any evidence, I'm sticking with what I have seen with my eyes on the court and assuming that Coach K is playing the best players.

In the meantime, I will continue to say "increase the pace, gamble on full court D, outscore the other team" rather than pinning our hopes on an "unknown' with 2.5 years in the program and some conspiracy theory that K is waiting for the right moment to unleash the unholy beast that is Marshall.

Keep in mind, I would LOVE to be wrong. If MP3 goes in for 25 minutes next game and posts 10 and 10, I will be elated. I'm just not sure where all this unbridled optimism about Marshall is coming from.

He's tall, he's enthusiastic, and he's related to really good big men. I should be so lucky.

I think we can still win 14 conference games without some divine play from MP3 if we can refocus our team and come up with some "out of the box" scenarios that don't involve giving away minutes to an unproven commodity.

Go Duke!

[wsb3]

One word: Zone.

When we played a couple of possessions of zone, sure it was shocking, but it was effective.

I realize we are wasting our breath talking about zone but am I the only one that thinks this team might be a really good zone defensive team? The length and the athletes we have.

[Karl Beem]

How do players like Sheed, Amile, Matt and even Murphy feel when players with less talent(let's face it) get preferred as starters and get more minutes when things don't go to plan? Yes, it sends a tough message but it can go another way. I think we may have chemistry, morale and confidence issues.

Say What? If you're referring to Josh and Tyler, the team improved when they started. Sheed and Amile were awful yesterday.

[Ben1029]

As I mentioned in the post-game thread - coaching was the biggest issue today. K is not infallible. He is quite stubborn, and can be slow to see and embrace change. Well, now is the time to change.

What's not working?
1. Pressure D - we haven't displayed the ability to defend quick guards on the perimeter. Trying to pressure opposing guards simply allows them more of an opportunity to beat us off the dribble. Also, we aren't getting a high rate of turnovers and opposing teams are shooting quite well against us. We need to back up 1/2-1 step and play solid defense focused on containing not stifling the opposing guards.

2. Rebounding in small ball - we get dominated by opposing bigs because our bigs that are playing aren't really bigs. Jabari's natural position is 3/4, Amile's natural position is HS 4, and is trying to beef up to a college 4. Rodney's natural position is wing. He has no business defending the post ever. Josh has an old man's game but at 6'7" with limited athleticism he has a lot of trouble rebounding. Now, Josh does play good position defense, but he isn't physically equipped to compete at major college level, imo. These are the bigs Coach K is playing and it's clearly not getting it done.

3. Post offense - Jabari didn't get one touch in the post in the Clemson game. This is BAD coaching. Jabari is our only real post threat, and as K was doing at the beginning of the year - moving Jabari from interior to perimeter - K needs to do the same now. Whenever we needed a basket against Zona - K put Jabari in the post and we went to him and he delivered.

Where to go from here?
1. New lineup - Cook, Hood, Jabari, Amile, Marshall
2. Play contain, not pressure, D. Use our length to contest shots and rebound
3. Move Jabari around... put in post, on perimeter.
4. Have Amile and Marshall crash offensive boards
5. Reserves - Rasheed, Dawkins, Matt Jones should get primary minutes as wing reserves; Hairston & Semi should spell Amile & Marshall. Tyler? I guess he can spell Cook for a few minutes a game, but no more. He tends to be a defensive liability because of his propensity to foul and continues to get beat off the dribble and back door. Offensively, he's no real help. I'd much rather see Matt take his spot in the rotation.

It's time for our coaches to step up. It doesn't matter how many W's a coach has, he still must be flexible enough to make changes and realize when "his" way is not working. K's way is clearly not working and he must tweak it some. He has done it in the past and I'm sure he can do it again. Also, I'm sure K's loss of his brother has affected his focus on this team and the amount of emotional energy he can give to this team. Hopefully, Coach K and the team can bounce bac

I really like the idea of getting Parker more touches in the post but I'm not sure it works well with your proposed lineup. Having 2 guys who can't shoot with him does not really give him much space to operate or 3pt shooters to kick the ball out to if the other team were to double. It makes the paint really crowded. The other team's bigs do not have to guard Jefferson & Plumlee. If you have another guard in there it would make it harder for the team to double.

[MarkD83]

I'm sorry, I'm just not in the "MP3 is the answer to all our prayers" camp. I don't understand why so many folks here think that since he hasn't played much, he's some hidden gem and Coach K is intentionally impeding his development.

Please, show me some evidence rather than just "he hasn't played, but he's the solution." In the absence of any evidence, I'm sticking with what I have seen with my eyes on the court and assuming that Coach K is playing the best players.

In the meantime, I will continue to say "increase the pace, gamble on full court D, outscore the other team" rather than pinning our hopes on an "unknown' with 2.5 years in the program and some conspiracy theory that K is waiting for the right moment to unleash the unholy beast that is Marshall.

Keep in mind, I would LOVE to be wrong. If MP3 goes in for 25 minutes next game and posts 10 and 10, I will be elated. I'm just not sure where all this unbridled optimism about Marshall is coming from.

He's tall, he's enthusiastic, and he's related to really good big men. I should be so lucky.

I think we can still win 14 conference games without some divine play from MP3 if we can refocus our team and come up with some "out of the box" scenarios that don't involve giving away minutes to an unproven commodity.

Go Duke!

This may be repeating what I read in other threads, but the use of MP3 is not so much that he would be an elite big man, but that he would allow our top players to move to their more natural positions. IF MP3 is added to the rotation his role might be to clog up the lane and get rebounds (scoring is not required). This means Duke's current style of defense and offense would have to change. Not to bring back dreams of 2010, but the insertion of Zoubs into the line-up is the type of thing I would hope to see IF MP3 is used as a way to change the team dynamics.

[El_Diablo]

Where to go from here?
1. New lineup - Cook, Hood, Jabari, Amile, Marshall
2. Play contain, not pressure, D. Use our length to contest shots and rebound
3. Move Jabari around... put in post, on perimeter.
4. Have Amile and Marshall crash offensive boards
5. Reserves - Rasheed, Dawkins, Matt Jones should get primary minutes as wing reserves; Hairston & Semi should spell Amile & Marshall. Tyler? I guess he can spell Cook for a few minutes a game, but no more. He tends to be a defensive liability because of his propensity to foul and continues to get beat off the dribble and back door. Offensively, he's no real help. I'd much rather see Matt take his spot in the rotation.

I don't think this would work spacing-wise. It would be pretty difficult to have Jabari post up effectively if Amile and Marshall are both on the court (because neither is a threat outside of the paint). What are we going to do--have all three in paint? Have Marshall and Amile feeding the post from the perimeter? What will we do when Jabari gets double-teamed if there are only (at most) two other players on the court who can hit a shot from outside of 8 feet? As much as I would like to see Marshall play more, I don't think that lineup would work if we want to get Jabari more post opportunities.

IMO, the main benefit to having Marshall in the game is that he can protect the rim in ways that Josh and Amile cannot. And he's actually been more productive statistically than one may think. He is not a huge offensive threat, although he does have the highest effective FG% on the team, at 71.4% (Dawkins is next at 65.9%). He's not a great one-on-one defender, although his stop percentage is 55.2% (compared to Hairston's 41.1%, which is higher than only Pagliuca right now). Statistically, Marshall is a good, but not great rebounder (although I suppose if people want to discount his offensive production because a relatively high proportion of his playing time is in "garbage time" then they should be willing to admit that his pace-adjusted rebounding numbers are disproportionately affected by frequently playing in stall ball mode). I am not saying Marshall should be getting 25-30 minutes per game, but when we are getting out-rebounded by 18 (which is what happened yesterday...Clemson 48, Duke 30), then surely Marshall should be getting more than 0 minutes of playing time. Is 10 minutes per game really too much to ask, even if he is merely serviceable during that time? If only to keep Jabari out of the post on defense? Even if Marshall makes a couple mistakes throughout his 10 minutes, maybe a better-rested Parker can make up for it by hitting a couple shots that he's missing now (and let's not pretend that our other options at center play mistake-free basketball as it is).

That said, I think our main problems lie elsewhere. First, improved help-side defense across the board would make a much bigger difference to our bottom line, and that needs to come from Hood, Parker and the guards, in addition to whoever is playing center (Plumlee can help here with his ability to block shots and/or make it more difficult to get to the rim--especially because he tends to stay in the paint on defense--but this needs to get better from everyone). Second, Cook also needs to remain locked-in mentally for the entire game, or at least be shown the bench as soon as he starts into one of those multi-possession second-half slumps; let Thornton take over the point for a few minutes while Cook refocuses. Third, Sulaimon needs to find the happy medium between disappearing from the offense and forcing bad shots. I would put more playing time for Plumlee fourth in the order of importance.

Given those priorities, I am of the belief that our help-side defense will improve in fits and starts over the next couple months (with occasional lapses, of course, but hopefully not for entire games or halves) just by sheer blunt-force experience, if not also by improved communication. Getting Cook and Sulaimon primed mentally may or may not ever happen. So even though getting contributions from Plumlee may not be the most pressing concern at the moment, it is the easiest to fix while we work on the other issues. Getting 10 minutes for Plumlee does not require wholesale changes or bumping someone entirely from the rotation, as some people suggest would have to happen. For example, we could use a rotation like this:

Player/Minutes (change from season average)
Cook/34 (-1.5)
Sulaimon/20 (-1)
Dawkins/18 (+2.5)
Thornton/17 (-3)
Hood/33 (+0.5)
Parker/30 (+0.5)
Jefferson/25 (+7)
Hairston/8 (-5)

That would give Plumlee 10 minutes per game and still leave a buffer of 5 extra minutes to be distributed to Jones/Ojeleye or amongst the other rotational players. It would require two of Plumlee/Hairston/Jefferson to be in the game at the same time for only 3 minutes per game. And note that the only rotational player getting squeezed here is Hairston...others are seeing marginal decreases or even increases, including a substantial increase for Jefferson over his season average. Even then, it is pretty much what Hairston is already getting in ACC play. Jones would also see a drop from his average of 8 mpg, but that is largely happening anyway too (5 total minutes in three ACC games).

EDIT: If Marshall can handle that, then we can talk about increasing his playing time from 10 to 15 or so. But let's not too far ahead of ourselves now.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This may be repeating what I read in other threads, but the use of MP3 is not so much that he would be an elite big man, but that he would allow our top players to move to their more natural positions. IF MP3 is added to the rotation his role might be to clog up the lane and get rebounds (scoring is not required). This means Duke's current style of defense and offense would have to change. Not to bring back dreams of 2010, but the insertion of Zoubs into the line-up is the type of thing I would hope to see IF MP3 is used as a way to change the team dynamics.

Thank you. This is the most sensible rationale I have heard for inserting MP3 into the lineup.

[_Gary]

Thank you. This is the most sensible rationale I have heard for inserting MP3 into the lineup.

Several people have suggested this, but Mark did put it succinctly. Still, I don't think that the vast majority of posters asking for more of Marshall are suggesting it's because he's all-world and will immediately start playing like Miles or Mason. For me, at least, it's as much about clogging the lane defensively and allowing Jabari and the others to play their more natural positions as anything else.

[CajunDevil]

I really like the idea of getting Parker more touches in the post but I'm not sure it works well with your proposed lineup. Having 2 guys who can't shoot with him does not really give him much space to operate or 3pt shooters to kick the ball out to if the other team were to double. It makes the paint really crowded. The other team's bigs do not have to guard Jefferson & Plumlee. If you have another guard in there it would make it harder for the team to double.

Jabari in the post would pull Plumlee's man and result in easy dunks for Plumlee. We've seen that earlier this yr. We'd have to overload one side with Hood, Cook & Jabari. But, I was really thinking more about getting Jabari in the post at different times during the game regardless who is in the game.

Someone else mentioned that Plumlee wouldn't be feeding the post... of course not. Plumlee's role on offense is to set picks, to make himself available for a dump-off from penetration or when his man goes to double Jabari and to get offensive rebounds.

I'd have Plumlee play 20+ minutes/game...

[DukieInBrasil]

I'm sorry, I'm just not in the "MP3 is the answer to all our prayers" camp. I don't understand why so many folks here think that since he hasn't played much, he's some hidden gem and Coach K is intentionally impeding his development.

Go Duke!

nice straw man. nobody is saying MP3 is the solution to all our problems, but rather that he could help strengthen one of our glaring weaknesses. When Parker was getting worked over by (?)Nnoko(?) because he is like 4 inches shorter, Marshall could have been a reasonable response there by a) being tall b) causing Clemson to look to another player b/c the obvious size advantage was gone or c) preventing the offensive rebound and then and-1 foul due to a). Even if it was for only 3 or 4 minutes MP3 could have made a difference, b/c there was a 3-4 minute stretch there when Nnoko scored directly over Parker several times.
Parker has shown he is an excellent offensive player, but playing him as a 5 is a mistake, one that K keeps repeating with absolutely no change in the results. Parker has poor timing, poor positioning and poor instincts when it comes to screens/picks etc. If he were defending the 4, i think at least some of those deficiencies would be reduced. The kid can play, but he needs to be used in a way that maximizes his talents and minimizes his weaknesses. The way the coaches are currently asking him to play exposes his weaknesses more and reduces his chances to use his talents. That is a poor strategy, and one that needs to change if this team is to reach its potential.

[JNort]

What? Of course it could, what has Marshall done in his two years at Duke to indicate he is not a very poor--by ACC standards--player on the offensive end of the court, and frankly not great on defense either? You guys are acting like barely in the top-25 is as bad as it gets. Ask fans of any other school in the country whether that's the case. I'm not saying playing Plumlee would necessarily make us worse--though I sure as heck don't see what other people are seeing, and for certain it isn't in his numbers. Would we certainly be worse? Of course not. But definitely possible.

I don't know what you aren't seeing. His 2mpg are usually pretty good. He alters the way opposing teams shoot in the paint and he boxes out better than Josh and doesn't take those stupid long range jumpers. I wish Josh and Marshall switched up their minutes and see how Marshall does. I'd bet he gets more points, rebounds, and blocks. Not to mention him just being on the court would change how teams attacked the paint.

[JNort]

I'm sorry, I'm just not in the "MP3 is the answer to all our prayers" camp. I don't understand why so many folks here think that since he hasn't played much, he's some hidden gem and Coach K is intentionally impeding his development.

Please, show me some evidence rather than just "he hasn't played, but he's the solution." In the absence of any evidence, I'm sticking with what I have seen with my eyes on the court and assuming that Coach K is playing the best players.

In the meantime, I will continue to say "increase the pace, gamble on full court D, outscore the other team" rather than pinning our hopes on an "unknown' with 2.5 years in the program and some conspiracy theory that K is waiting for the right moment to unleash the unholy beast that is Marshall.

Keep in mind, I would LOVE to be wrong. If MP3 goes in for 25 minutes next game and posts 10 and 10, I will be elated. I'm just not sure where all this unbridled optimism about Marshall is coming from.

He's tall, he's enthusiastic, and he's related to really good big men. I should be so lucky.

I think we can still win 14 conference games without some divine play from MP3 if we can refocus our team and come up with some "out of the box" scenarios that don't involve giving away minutes to an unproven commodity.

Go Duke!

You're right! Sorta... It's like this for me, we know what we got in Josh which is IMO not very good. Josh has been atrocious defensively, takes bad shots, doesn't rebound well, doesn't block shots, to small to alter shots and to small to defend bigger post players. Now that said Plumlee may be an unknown on something's but we know he would automatically be able to make people alter shots because of his height, defend the post better and I doubt he will take those long range jumpers. So I say give him Josh's minutes.

[rsvman]

I honestly don't understand all the enthusiasm for the zone. We played it for maybe three Clemson possessions in the first half.

Of course they were flummoxed by it; they had probably been told by their coach that Duke hadn't played a zone since the Roosevelt administration.

My memory is that on the third possession one of their guards nailed an open three from the wing. We didn't see a zone again.

When we played zone against Arizona they shredded it by going to the deep baseline.

I'm not opposed to zone, and, in fact, I think we should mix it in at random times in every game, but I don't think it worked as well in the Clemson game as you guys seem to think it did.

[Kedsy]

Up front, I admit I didn't see the Clemson game and didn't even stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.

What's not working?
2. Rebounding in small ball - we get dominated by opposing bigs because our bigs that are playing aren't really bigs.

We didn't rebound well against Clemson, but for the season leading into the game, defensive rebounding has been one of our team strengths. So I disagree that "rebounding in small ball" isn't working.

It's time for our coaches to step up. It doesn't matter how many W's a coach has, he still must be flexible enough to make changes and realize when "his" way is not working. K's way is clearly not working and he must tweak it some.

If by "step up," you mean follow the instructions of random fans, I disagree. I think your proposed lineup would probably be a disaster.

...That would give Plumlee 10 minutes per game and still leave a buffer of 5 extra minutes to be distributed to Jones/Ojeleye or amongst the other rotational players. It would require two of Plumlee/Hairston/Jefferson to be in the game at the same time for only 3 minutes per game.

This all sounds reasonable, but do you really think 10 minutes of Marshall would have made the difference between winning and losing at Clemson?

Not to bring back dreams of 2010, but the insertion of Zoubs into the line-up is the type of thing I would hope to see IF MP3 is used as a way to change the team dynamics.

The thing is, Brian Zoubek was already playing more than 15 minutes a game when he was inserted into the starting lineup. I don't think that trick works with a player who hardly plays.

b/c there was a 3-4 minute stretch there when Nnoko scored directly over Parker several times.

I just checked the play-by-play, and unless "several" means two, this statement isn't true.

If he were defending the 4, i think at least some of those deficiencies would be reduced.

Except Jabari's worst defensive performances (e.g., guarding Perry Ellis against Kansas) came when he was defending the 4.

[CajunDevil]

If by "step up," you mean follow the instructions of random fans, I disagree. I think your proposed lineup would probably be a disaster.

I always appreciate your condescending tone... and especially your substantive analysis above. Nice work.

"Step up" means putting players in position to succeed. This is something that K hasn't been doing a good job of this year. Any questions?

Also, at least my proposed lineup could actually grab a rebound against a team with strong, aggressive big men... but maybe you'd call that a disaster.

[DUKIE V(A)]

You're right! Sorta... It's like this for me, we know what we got in Josh which is IMO not very good. Josh has been atrocious defensively, takes bad shots, doesn't rebound well, doesn't block shots, to small to alter shots and to small to defend bigger post players. Now that said Plumlee may be an unknown on something's but we know he would automatically be able to make people alter shots because of his height, defend the post better and I doubt he will take those long range jumpers. So I say give him Josh's minutes.

I have no problem with MP3 getting more opportunity, but saying Josh plays atrocious defense and implying he hoists up a bunch of ill advised jumpers is just not accurate. Josh is one of the few players who consistently plays solid help defense and rarely forces shots. I think there are ways to make your point without being overly harsh and flat out inaccurate.

[MChambers]

I always appreciate your condescending tone... and especially your substantive analysis above. Nice work.

"Step up" means putting players in position to succeed. This is something that K hasn't been doing a good job of this year. Any questions?

Also, at least my proposed lineup could actually grab a rebound against a team with strong, aggressive big men... but maybe you'd call that a disaster.

Count me in the group who appreciates Kedsy's analysis and found it more convincing than yours.

Many folks have tried to point out to you that a front line of Jabari, Amile, and Marshall won't work. I found their points well reasoned.