Jay Bilas' Top 68 Teams (1/7/2014)

[jv001]

Bingo. Trust is a big thing for Coach K. And he's shown in the past to be loath to go deep to the unknown unless he absolutely has to do so.

Hairston knows where to be on the floor defensively. That's certainly better than not knowing where to be. But knowing where to be only helps so much. You need to know where to be AND be able to do something once you're there.

Hairston rarely gets caught out of position. But despite being in position, he rarely gets rebounds, rarely makes defensive stops, and is nonexistent on offense. Some have argued that he provides "boxing out" benefits that lead to others getting rebounds, but I don't see any evidence of that. For example, last night was one of our best rebounding games of the season, and Hairston played sparingly. Moreover, our leading rebounder (Jefferson) was also frequently the guy asked to box out the opposing C. One can box out without being a non-factor statistically.

Conversely, Plumlee may sometimes get out of position. I do think some folks overstate how frequently he's out of position defensively (my eyes tell me his positioning problem is more on the offensive end). But sure, it may happen. But what is undeniable is that he seems to be more involved in the action when he's in there than Hairston. He averages almost as many rebounds and almost as many assists as Hairston despite playing less than half of Hairston's minutes. And he has as many steals and more blocks than Hairston. And Hairston's foul rate is nearly 3 times that of Plumlee.

I have trouble believing that Plumlee's supposed deficiencies in positioning offset his advantages in ability to produce/extend possessions. It just seems like Coach K has a bit more trust in Hairston than he does Plumlee, and that trust is keeping Plumlee on the bench.

It should be noted, however, that we may be seeing a shift. Jefferson has seemingly supplanted Hairston in the rotation. Hairston is now averaging just 9 mpg over the past 4 games, and just 6.5 mpg in the 2 ACC games. So the real discussion may be whether Plumlee should be playing more at the expense of Jefferson - not Hairston.

Right now, I'd argue that Plumlee should be playing more over Hairston. But that doesn't matter much, since Hairston isn't playing much. I don't think I would make the same argument for Plumlee over Jefferson right now.

I agree with everything in your post. Including the bolded portion of your post. Amile needs to get as many minutes as he can handle and stay out of foul trouble. He's even doing that well. Marshall needs as many minutes as he can handle unless he really under performs. However not in end of game minutes because of his free throw woes. Therefore his minutes should come at the expense of Josh and when Jabari needs a rest. To be an elite program, we will need for the team to improve on defense and it wouldn't hurt for Marshall to improve his all around game as well. GoDuke!

[rsvman]

Yea; I'd note that Plumlee *also* played sparingly last night during one of our best rebounding games of the season. ...

The whole thread has kind of spontaneously moved in a direction that suggests that the only possible advantage the team could have by playing Plumlee more is better rebounding. It's unfortunate that it trended that way; looking at last night's game then provides evidence that we don't need Marshall because we can rebound just fine without him.

But rebounding isn't the story. It's part of the story, but it's not the story. Re-watch the first half of last night's game (if you have the stomach for it). We rebounded just fine, and yet, there was a glaring problem in the center of the lane: a complete absence of interior defense.

I'm not saying that playing Plumlee more is the obvious solution to the problem, but at the same time I am saying that it is POTENTIALLY a longer-term partial solution to the problem. I am sick of listening to color commentators on my television saying this (or a close approximation of it): "Duke plays an overextended defense that makes it relatively easy for the opposing team to drive the lane. Unfortunately for Duke, they DON'T HAVE A SHOTBLOCKER on the team. Yada Yada, blah blah blah."

I want to scream at the tv that we MIGHT have a shotblocker on the team, but it's hard for him to block shots from the freakin' bench (especially given the previous discussion about his lack of wingspan). We have all seen instances during the season in which Plumlee has either blocked or altered shots, sometimes several in quick succession. To be fair, we've also seen times when people have blown by him or put a spin move on him and scored with ease. From the observations I have made over the course of the season so far, it's hard to say which occurs with more frequency.

However, the first half of last night's game was a perfect example of a time when playing Plumlee could not possibly have made our interior defense any worse than it already was, and I really wish Coach K would've given the big guy a reasonable shot at it. He missed one defensive assignment and he was right back on the bench. He needs a slightly longer leash.

[Kedsy]

Amile needs to get as many minutes as he can handle... Marshall needs as many minutes as he can handle unless he really under performs. However not in end of game minutes because of his free throw woes. Therefore his minutes should come at the expense of Josh and when Jabari needs a rest.

This seems contradictory to me. In our last game, Amile played 28 minutes, so I assume he can handle that much. Jabari only played 21 minutes but we know he'll probably generally play 10 or 15 more. Josh only played 4 minutes (and Marshall had 2). For the sake of future Duke teams, I certainly hope Marshall can "handle" more than 6 minutes a game, or even 10 to 12 (if you add in Jabari resting, which against Georgia Tech saw us go small). As CDu said, if Marshall is going to get significantly more minutes, they'd have to come from Amile, which I don't think sounds like a very good idea at all.

Put another way, on this season's Duke team it would be almost impossible for both Amile and Marshall to get "as many minutes as [they] can handle." At least not without seriously reducing minutes from one or more of our top six players.

[jv001]

This seems contradictory to me. In our last game, Amile played 28 minutes, so I assume he can handle that much. Jabari only played 21 minutes but we know he'll probably generally play 10 or 15 more. Josh only played 4 minutes (and Marshall had 2). For the sake of future Duke teams, I certainly hope Marshall can "handle" more than 6 minutes a game, or even 10 to 12 (if you add in Jabari resting, which against Georgia Tech saw us go small). As CDu said, if Marshall is going to get significantly more minutes, they'd have to come from Amile, which I don't think sounds like a very good idea at all.

Put another way, on this season's Duke team it would be almost impossible for both Amile and Marshall to get "as many minutes as [they] can handle." At least not without seriously reducing minutes from one or more of our top six players.

Badly posted on my part. I think there will be times that Amile won't get 28 minutes because of foul trouble, getting beaten by a much bigger 5 or just needing more rest. Add in a couple of mins for Jabari while Amile moves to PF and I would expect Marshall to not get more than 10-12 mins max, unless he really improves. Quinn, Rodney and probably Jabari will get 30-35 minutes each. So, that doesn't leave many minutes. GoDuke!

[tommy]

While last night Miller did hurt us in the post, I agree with many that the more significant problem, again, was giving up dribble penetration. It seemed particularly bad in the first half when even after their guards got into the lane, our bigs often didn't come over and help, try to block shots, etc., until it was too late, if at all. The GT guys just went all the way to the rim.

With respect to Marshall Plumlee, though, it seems to me that the question is this: Is a long-armed, 6'9" Amile Jefferson more or less likely than a short-armed 7'0" Marshall Plumlee to learn to come over and help, put his arms in the air and alter and/or block the shot of a 6'2" or 6'4" or 6'6" guy driving to the hoop? I don't know that Amile isn't just as able to alter the shots of those smaller and mid-sized guys who are primarily the ones hurting us. He towers over those guys, and he has long arms, and he is athletic. So Marshall is a couple inches taller. So what, in that context?

Yes, having a bigger body would normally help against traditional post play. But as has been discussed and demonstrated ad nauseum on these boards, traditional post play has not been where our defense has broken down this season FOR THE MOST PART -- Miller's solid game notwithstanding.

And when it comes to rebounding, Amile has been just a beast, even playing against bigger and stronger guys in the post. Don't think there's a lot of room to complain about his rebounding, or indeed the team's defensive rebounding for most if not all of the year.

[FerryFor50]

While last night Miller did hurt us in the post, I agree with many that the more significant problem, again, was giving up dribble penetration. It seemed particularly bad in the first half when even after their guards got into the lane, our bigs often didn't come over and help, try to block shots, etc., until it was too late, if at all. The GT guys just went all the way to the rim.

With respect to Marshall Plumlee, though, it seems to me that the question is this: Is a long-armed, 6'9" Amile Jefferson more or less likely than a short-armed 7'0" Marshall Plumlee to learn to come over and help, put his arms in the air and alter and/or block the shot of a 6'2" or 6'4" or 6'6" guy driving to the hoop? I don't know that Amile isn't just as able to alter the shots of those smaller and mid-sized guys who are primarily the ones hurting us. He towers over those guys, and he has long arms, and he is athletic. So Marshall is a couple inches taller. So what, in that context?

Yes, having a bigger body would normally help against traditional post play. But as has been discussed and demonstrated ad nauseum on these boards, traditional post play has not been where our defense has broken down this season FOR THE MOST PART -- Miller's solid game notwithstanding.

And when it comes to rebounding, Amile has been just a beast, even playing against bigger and stronger guys in the post. Don't think there's a lot of room to complain about his rebounding, or indeed the team's defensive rebounding for most if not all of the year.

You're forgetting about leaping ability, which I think Marshall has hands down. More than makes up for the shorter arms. Though I'd be interested in hearing what each's wingspan is...

[CDu]

I agree with those who have said that rebounding has not been a big problem for the most part this year. I also agree with those who have said that Jefferson has been unequivocally terrific on the boards.

I fall in the camp of thinking our best-case scenario is a rotation something like this:
C: Jefferson 25 mpg-30 mpg, Plumlee 10-15 mpg, Hairston 0-5 mpg
PF: Parker 30-35 mpg, Hood 0-5 mpg, Jefferson 0-5 mpg
SF: Hood 30 mpg, Dawkins/Jones 10 mpg
SG: Sulaimon 25-30 mpg, Dawkins/Thornton/Jones 10-15 mpg
PG: Cook 30-35 mpg, Thornton 5-10 mpg

There will be games where I think Plumlee's size and athleticism will be needed. On those nights, we need him to be ready to contribute 15-20 mpg of solid play. There will be games in which we just don't need Plumlee. On those nights, I'd expect to see him play limited minutes.

[CDu]

You're forgetting about leaping ability, which I think Marshall has hands down. More than makes up for the shorter arms. Though I'd be interested in hearing what each's wingspan is...

According to DraftExpress, Jefferson has a wingspan of 7'0". Plumlee has a wingspan of 6'8.5".

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...efferson-6271/
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...-Plumlee-6261/

It's almost like they got them backwards!

So taking height into account, I'd guess that they have a similar standing reach. And I'd guess that Plumlee outjumps Jefferson by quite a bit.

[J_C_Steel]

I agree with those who have said that rebounding has not been a big problem for the most part this year. I also agree with those who have said that Jefferson has been unequivocally terrific on the boards.

I fall in the camp of thinking our best-case scenario is a rotation something like this:
C: Jefferson 25 mpg-30 mpg, Plumlee 10-15 mpg, Hairston 0-5 mpg
PF: Parker 30-35 mpg, Hood 0-5 mpg, Jefferson 0-5 mpg
SF: Hood 30 mpg, Dawkins/Jones 10 mpg
SG: Sulaimon 25-30 mpg, Dawkins/Thornton/Jones 10-15 mpg
PG: Cook 30-35 mpg, Thornton 5-10 mpg

There will be games where I think Plumlee's size and athleticism will be needed. On those nights, we need him to be ready to contribute 15-20 mpg of solid play. There will be games in which we just don't need Plumlee. On those nights, I'd expect to see him play limited minutes.

Well done. In my view, that distribution of minutes gives this year's edition of the Blue Devils the best chance to win -- provided that Plumlee and Jefferson improve with more PT.