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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    My biggest pet peeve with big men. Fortunately, Mason worked on his and really improved. Marshall had nothing to do but work on his throws while he rehabbed the foot. Really no excuse. He needs to be better. It can be done. Go underhand if nothing else works. It is practice and muscle memory. His stroke is not horrible- just needs to practice.
    He's not playing much. When he gets on the court, he is over-excited. That ain't no way to make FTs. If he calms down, they'll start falling.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Elon is pretty bad.
    Well, they're a heck of a lot better than Vermont.

    According to Pomeroy, Elon ranked #119 in the country. And while I don't think Pomeroy can be 100% relied on at this point in the season, that still puts Elon as much better than "pretty bad." Also, Elon was the pre-season favorite to win the Southern Conference, which means they have a decent chance at being an NCAAT team. Duke just made them look pretty bad, and that's progress for the Blue Devils.

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Well, they're a heck of a lot better than Vermont.

    According to Pomeroy, Elon ranked #119 in the country. And while I don't think Pomeroy can be 100% relied on at this point in the season, that still puts Elon as much better than "pretty bad." Also, Elon was the pre-season favorite to win the Southern Conference, which means they have a decent chance at being an NCAAT team. Duke just made them look pretty bad, and that's progress for the Blue Devils.
    i think we're nearly at the point when pre-season rankings are irrelevant in ken pom...and even if we're not 100% there, they mean pretty little at this point (given the higher weighting to more recent results). That said, if you mean that they won't accurately reflect how good a team is in march because teams still have a ways to go in the next 3 months, I agree with you...but that lack of confidence comes from the changing ability of teams, not because of some inherent flaw in ken-pom's system, IMO
    1200. DDMF.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    I'm looking forward to seeing Pomeroy's rankings tomorrow. I think the defense might crack the top 30 and Duke overall will crack the top 10.

    Also, guys, I'm beginning to think final exam week may have affected our performance against Gardner-Webb.

    Happy New Year, everyone!

  5. #25
    I am not confident that I would make the poll right, but I will say that Dawkins was man of the match.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Gthoma2a View Post
    I am not confident that I would make the poll right, but I will say that Dawkins was man of the match.
    The first three that Dre missed, he was wide open for an alley-oop on the initial break. I would have loved to see him throw one down. Due to his shooting, people forget (and I think Dre forgets too) just how athletic he is.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    The first three that Dre missed, he was wide open for an alley-oop on the initial break. I would have loved to see him throw one down. Due to his shooting, people forget (and I think Dre forgets too) just how athletic he is.
    Athletic? Absolutely. But that athleticism rarely gets shown due to AD's poor handle. If he had the handle of, say, Gerald Henderson - a play with an okay but not great handle - AD would be long gone in the NBA.

    Speaking of the NBA, AD will definitely be given a shot. Probably in the second round. His skill is way to valuable to not be given a second round pick.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I'm looking forward to seeing Pomeroy's rankings tomorrow. I think the defense might crack the top 30 and Duke overall will crack the top 10.

    Also, guys, I'm beginning to think final exam week may have affected our performance against Gardner-Webb.

    Happy New Year, everyone!
    kenpom reduces the effect of huge outliers in blowout cupcake games, mitigating the so called "wisconsin" effect....duke played 30 points better on defense than their adjusted average for the season...and such a result would certainly be subject to the new formulas...so while we should see a bump, don't expect an astronomical improvement until we start showing the improved defense against more teams like UCLA which we don't easily outclass
    1200. DDMF.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    The first three that Dre missed, he was wide open for an alley-oop on the initial break. I would have loved to see him throw one down. Due to his shooting, people forget (and I think Dre forgets too) just how athletic he is.
    I know exactly what you mean. I have always noted his athletic ability since his freshman year, when he dunked on GT in the final of the ACC tourney (most people didn't know he had it in him; straight down the lane in a big game). Then, he went on to beat both Plumlees in a dunk contest. Not many people who can shoot like him (granted there are few) could do that. Not to mention that he has always had a habit of getting steals. Watch some of his earlier 20+ point games and it is steals and run-outs on a lot of the plays. He is better than people give him credit for, in a lot of ways (see the blocks in the last couple of games). My cheeks literally hurt during some of these games because I love seeing him play well. The smile and cackle are something that must drive my neighbors crazy. I have always felt like he was going to take off. Now, in his senior season, he's fully done it. Everyone sang the praises of Jabari, Hood and Rasheed, but it is great to see the old young gun has become a true senior leader. He has earned this season with his heart through his Duke career. It makes me so happy.
    Last edited by Gthoma2a; 12-31-2013 at 07:04 PM.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    He's not playing much. When he gets on the court, he is over-excited. That ain't no way to make FTs. If he calms down, they'll start falling.
    I don't disagree but I want to know that he makes 75% in practice. He needs to be that good when calm.

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Trinity/Archdale Area(North Carolina)

    Jabari and his shoes

    To anyone that attended the game today...

    Did you notice Jabari changing his shoes at least three times? Maybe four? My son kept watching him and thought that was the coolest thing. I was more focused on the court action but wondered if he had this right

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    The Northwest

    takeaways from the game

    Elon isn't great, but they return all five starters - four seniors - from a winning team last year. THose type of teams rarely get blown out by anyone.

    I still have zero idea why Tyler is A) starting and B) playing any minutes at all other than backing up Cook at PG. We absolutely don't need him at SG - Sheed and Dawkins are both playing terrifically there now.

    The three headed center of Amile, Plumlee, and Josh is getting better and it needs to because it never was a good plan for those three guys to combine for just 40 minutes a night. They need to be more like 50 or even 60 so we can really battle on the boards. Of course we might be able to get that in 40 if Amile keeps rebounding like that and Plumlee keeps improving.

    This team is still so good offensively that you know there are going to be a couple nights in ACC play where they shoot 65% from the floor, 50% from the arc, and top 100 points. I'm hoping for both games against NC and in the carrier dome (welcome to the ACC, orange) and Maryland (get the heck out of the ACC, whiny twerps).
    Last edited by Newton_14; 01-02-2014 at 09:59 AM.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    i think we're nearly at the point when pre-season rankings are irrelevant in ken pom...and even if we're not 100% there, they mean pretty little at this point (given the higher weighting to more recent results). That said, if you mean that they won't accurately reflect how good a team is in march because teams still have a ways to go in the next 3 months, I agree with you...but that lack of confidence comes from the changing ability of teams, not because of some inherent flaw in ken-pom's system, IMO
    Well, to call up the ghosts of Aristotle and Plato, we know that KenPom has a forecasting system based on analysis of prior games. If the teams he covers evolve or change in unpredictable ways during the season, the system is likely to be bad -- even if perfectly conceived and executed.

    Happy New Year, Sage
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Well, to call up the ghosts of Aristotle and Plato, we know that KenPom has a forecasting system based on analysis of prior games. If the teams he covers evolve or change in unpredictable ways during the season, the system is likely to be bad -- even if perfectly conceived and executed.

    Happy New Year, Sage
    yep. completely agree. but largely that is the exception at this point, and we can no longer say his ratings are bad because of preseason rankings or unconnectedness of the graph...the arguments have to be based on some fundamental change in the quality of the team, which we clearly have with a team like duke.
    1200. DDMF.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by gurufrisbee View Post
    The three headed center of Amile, Plumlee, and Josh is getting better and it needs to because it never was a good plan for those three guys to combine for just 40 minutes a night. They need to be more like 50 or even 60 so we can really battle on the boards.
    If you want Amile/Marshall/Josh to play 60 minutes, does that mean you want Jabari to play only 20 minutes? Or are you suggesting Jabari should play some SF, which he hasn't done all year? If the latter, do you really think that playing Amile/Marshall/Josh more minutes at the expense of Rodney/Andre/Rasheed is a good idea?

    Personally, I think Amile/Marshall/Josh combining for 35 to 40 minutes is just fine.

    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    yep. completely agree. but largely that is the exception at this point, and we can no longer say his ratings are bad because of preseason rankings or unconnectedness of the graph...the arguments have to be based on some fundamental change in the quality of the team, which we clearly have with a team like duke.
    Is it really all connected at this point? I honestly don't know. Considering how much a couple of bad data points affect the numbers, I am a little dubious, but I admit my doubts could be misplaced.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Is it really all connected at this point? I honestly don't know. Considering how much a couple of bad data points affect the numbers, I am a little dubious, but I admit my doubts could be misplaced.
    Not sure if I'm following what you guys are referencing - the reliability of efficiency ratings this far into a season?

    Don't know the intricacies of his efficiency formulas, but I suspect that a team working through a new defense with several new personnel has a lot of room for improvement after a handful of games. If we have a top 20 run-rate D by the end of ACC play, we're going to be a tough out.

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post

    Is it really all connected at this point? I honestly don't know. Considering how much a couple of bad data points affect the numbers, I am a little dubious, but I admit my doubts could be misplaced.
    only kenpom knows for sure, but this post from last year

    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...ngs_why_weight

    indicates that preseason rankings comprise only about 2 games at this time of year, which given duke has played 14, would be *only* about 12%, so perhaps my guess was off and I was slightly premature, as kenpom indicates that it's usually not until late january when preseason rankings weave their way out of the system (that said, preseason rankings were much higher than duke is currently...so we can't blame DUKE's ranking on that anyway), he discusses average motion of teams that out/under performed their preseason rankings, but there is no discussion of the standard deviation of the teams (i.e. how far do the teams move from now until the end of the year)

    so yeah, perhaps i was a tad premature...but what i would love to see from a kenpom is a standard deviation by date....or, given any point in the season, in what range can we expect this teams final ranking to be, which is really what we're discussing here....if anyone knows of a blog post he's made about such things, i'd love to see it (or alternatively, if it is possible to access kenpom on arbitrary dates, i could do it myself)
    1200. DDMF.

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    The Northwest
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    If you want Amile/Marshall/Josh to play 60 minutes, does that mean you want Jabari to play only 20 minutes? Or are you suggesting Jabari should play some SF, which he hasn't done all year? If the latter, do you really think that playing Amile/Marshall/Josh more minutes at the expense of Rodney/Andre/Rasheed is a good idea?

    Personally, I think Amile/Marshall/Josh combining for 35 to 40 minutes is just fine.
    .
    Well I don't think they would ever actually play 60 unless Duke was running away with the game and we could definitely have two of them out there together the entire second half. So in that sense, sixty might be a big much. But Jabari and Hood should not have to play 40 each. If they each play 32, I would love to see that the Amile/Marshall/Josh guys can step up and play their 40 plus 16 more. And truly I think we may need them too, in order to have the size to battle with several foes in conference play.

    In my head, if it's a close game against a team with size, I'm thinking the time breaks down something like this:

    C - all 40 to the three headed
    PF - Jabari 32, the other 8 for the three headed
    SF - Hood 32, the other 8 for the three headed (which really means Jabari sliding down) OR possibly Semi/Jones OR possibly Sheed/Dawkins
    SG - Sheed 20, Dawkins 20
    PG - Cook 32, Tyler 8

    I'd totally rather have those minutes go to Dawkins or Semi or Jones or Sheed, but I just think we're going to need them to go to big guys to compete with bigger teams.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Bethesda, MD
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    He's not playing much. When he gets on the court, he is over-excited. That ain't no way to make FTs. If he calms down, they'll start falling.
    Much discussion of MP3's free throw woes, and understandably so, but Amile Jefferson's is at 15 of 38 for the year, which is also problematic. I think his stroke actually looks worse than MP3's and, given his higher volume, I'm not sure his low success rate is attributable to nerves. It's a shame for both of them.

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    My biggest pet peeve with big men. Fortunately, Mason worked on his and really improved. Marshall had nothing to do but work on his throws while he rehabbed the foot. Really no excuse. He needs to be better. It can be done. Go underhand if nothing else works. It is practice and muscle memory. His stroke is not horrible- just needs to practice.
    I have not watched the last few games and did not pay too much attention to what I saw of his free throw shooting the one time I saw him miss a few. He struck me as disconnected.

    Here's a hypothesis and a means for his figuring it out.

    The connection between force imparted into the ground and back up through the body can get trapped; it needs to have some connection, the more the better, to arm extension and release. In Marshall's style, from my very brief observation, there was little.

    Perhaps why: odds on that, from an extraordinarily early age, coaches singular point of emphasis, was to get the ball high and keep it there. Marshall had little time for play, exploring bringing it to other spots, being somewhat shorter through the body, starting with the knees (soft, pliant). "Get it up there, Marshall, hold it firm). The play was is essential. is essential. He knows how to sense and feel himself--many people are disconnected from that, they understand themselves from the outside in, which is how most people see others, and which is what coaches were demanding of him, in effect. But, he knows how.

    Solution: it is not from the foul line. It begins from layup distance, and play. beginning from the regular, righty layup spot. Playing with starting with the ball at different heights, forehead, between nose and mouth, hairline; different release points, vectors out, different spacing between the feet, different hand placement, tonus of fingers, placement, placement of other hands. No regimen, and, when get bored, leave it. Go to another spot, do not try to grasp anything. Sense, feel, notice the arch and spin of the ball that results, if onto something, play with it some more, looking for better feel, see how doing much less than needed can produce the same results, leave it.

    When get the knack of just exploring in this fashion, play from in front of the basket. How long at this, as long as it is interesting, fascinating. Do not play with boredom or frustration. Then a step back when you have one or more modes that show promise. No need to have "1" way of doing it well; quite to the contrary. He will chose one.

    By time get three or four feet away, play with greater subtlety and one will emerge as best. Always play with more, with deviations to get different flight, feel, chose what like, what floats, nice arc. Doesn't take long. You have it from 4 feet, you have your shot. From the line, practice but still tweak. You will have it, and it will get better.

    Coach can be around to give minimal guidance when get off course, but mostly to know when getting bored (habbit from years of "how to" coaching is to stay fixed on what "shown". Failure is "crucial" to the learning process. Failure is place of learning. Do not run completely away from that spot, tweak it until next emerges. Maybe coach is not very good idea at very beginning. MUST resist with giving "how to", except to extent, "maybe try it with right elbow out for a few, then elbow in an inch or two, no feedback as to which is better, it is for Marshall to sense, feel himself and see what is happening. to learn not be taught.

    Can learn to shoot from different heights, feet positioned slightly differently, hands, elbows, etc. to go with different shots or same shots (they are all different). Explore. Own.

    Improvement will happen very soon. Change if disengaged. Do not grab onto anything. You will come back to what somatically resonates and produces results that encourage.

    Marshall will earn very quickly.

    Just a hypothesis. I doubt that this has occurred to Marshall. I very strongly doubt that this will occur to shooting experts. They need to make themselves invisible, minimal, to encourage learning process. They are paid to do what they know, to make teacher and teaching important, not self learning.

    Self learners who are great at it, especially as to specialty, Dre, might not apprehend "how" they do it. If they did, would apply it elsewhere. They just do it; probably assume everybody does. If asked, will show and explain how he shoots, not how he keeps learning, in all probability. Difficult to separate the two. From experience. Very. Cheers

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