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  1. #21
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by TexHawk View Post
    (with #3 Turner as a strong possibility). Oh man. That would be a great battle for preseason #1 in 2014.
    "Strong possibility" as in, you guys are right there with anyone else on Turner's recruitment? Or do Kansas fans/insiders feel confident enough to take KU against the field for his eventual commitment? Just wondering. I like following recruiting.

  2. #22
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post

    I think Bill Self knows exactly what he's doing.
    Does this season's Bill Self know what he's doing? Previous seasons' Bill Self scheduled in the non-conference slate:

    2013 - 4 creampuffs
    2012 - 5 creampuffs
    2011 - 7 creampuffs
    2010 - 7 creampuffs

    (Creampuff = team rated 130 or below in Pomeroy)

    I'm a fan of Self but I wonder, if he could re-do this season's slate, if he would've swapped in a couple more easy teams to KU's non-conference schedule.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    It's sort of insane on Self's part. Kansas is going to go through the entire non-conference slate having played only two creampuff teams (LA-Monroe & Towson), which they've already played. It's all tough hoeing the rest of the way for Kansas.

    I think you've gotta throw in a few "breather" games where your players can relax a bit and the coaching staff can experiment and work on specific things without fearing a loss. KU's slate is still preferable to an all-creampuff schedule but it's perilously close to the other extreme, which might be slightly detrimental to a team's development as well.
    Most of these games are put together 2-3 years in advance. Georgetown is actually a lot worse today then they were when the game was scheduled. Same goes for New Mexico (probably not A LOT worse, but certainly not as good). On the flip side, nobody expected Villanova to be a Top 10 team, or Colorado to be as good as they are. (KU beat the Buffs by 40 last year in AFH.)

    There is precedence for this at KU with Bill Self. In 2005, with freshman Brandon Rush-Mario Chalmers-Micah Downs-Julian Wright, KU started 3-4. Including losses to Top 5 Arizona and Top 15 Nevada. They lost 2 of their first 3 conference games, and were 10-6 in early January. They closed 15-1, won the Big 12 title and conference tournament. They then lost to Bradley in the 1st round of the NCAA, but we're not going to talk about that.

    Wiggins and Embiid are certainly better than anyone on that team, and Ellis-Tharpe-Black are better than any of the veteran players, which featured walkon Christian Moody and a sophomore Sasha Kaun.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Does this season's Bill Self know what he's doing? Previous seasons' Bill Self scheduled in the non-conference slate:

    2013 - 4 creampuffs
    2012 - 5 creampuffs
    2011 - 7 creampuffs
    2010 - 7 creampuffs

    (Creampuff = team rated 130 or below in Pomeroy)

    I'm a fan of Self but I wonder, if he could re-do this season's slate, if he would've swapped in a couple more easy teams to KU's non-conference schedule.
    I'm curious to know whether Self believes that creampuffs are used to give players a rest and possibly some mild tinkering (which they are). This year, with such an inexperienced squad, maybe Self believes that giving them NCAA-team experience game-in and game-out is the best way. Maybe Self thinks that creampuffs don't develop players as quickly as mid-majors and BCS teams.

    I can see it going either way, actually. You will undoubtedly learn more playing tougher teams, but you physically (and possibly physiologically) wear down the team quicker as well.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    "Strong possibility" as in, you guys are right there with anyone else on Turner's recruitment? Or do Kansas fans/insiders feel confident enough to take KU against the field for his eventual commitment? Just wondering. I like following recruiting.
    It's been discussed in the 2014 recruiting thread on here. 247 has KU with a 61% "lead", followed by Okla State at 33%. But that's not the entire picture, as in October it was 100% for KU, but 7 of the last 8 predictions have been for OSU, including two KU insiders. Jerry Meyer tweeted the other day that KU leads with OSU trailing. (This was after Turner had a monster game on ESPN.)

    The strangest part is that the most recent info I have heard out of Lawrence is that Bill Self and staff are actually backing off a bit. Maybe they are just waiting for the official visit, but all of the attention has been on Rashad Vaugh and Jaquan Lyle lately.

  6. #26
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Maybe Self thinks that creampuffs don't develop players as quickly as mid-majors and BCS teams.
    That certainly is part of the reasoning, I'm sure.

    This article has Self in his own words discussing the schedule after last night's loss: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/12/10...9-florida.html
    “We’re the only (BCS) school in America that doesn’t have any home games for a month,” Self said. “And that’s my fault. And the schedule doesn’t lend itself to getting some confidence by winning some games (where) you don’t have to play great.

    Self still believes in his young team’s talent, but the pieces just aren’t fitting. He knew a rough patch was coming, but he’d hoped KU could avoid some losses as they weathered the storm.
    Anyway, I'm sure Kansas will be a very good team by March. But it looks like Self is wondering if he could've gotten his team to gain its confidence sooner had they played a slightly easier schedule.

  7. #27
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    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    That certainly is part of the reasoning, I'm sure.

    This article has Self in his own words discussing the schedule after last night's loss: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/12/10...9-florida.html


    Anyway, I'm sure Kansas will be a very good team by March. But it looks like Self is wondering if he could've gotten his team to gain its confidence sooner had they played a slightly easier schedule.
    But that is in hindsight. Imagine if Kansas got through that entire schedule without a loss - they would have the right mentality and the right confidence. I like the approach that Self took, but it certainly must be frustrating for the players, coaches, and fans to get to the end target (tournaments).
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  8. #28
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    But that is in hindsight. Imagine if Kansas got through that entire schedule without a loss - they would have the right mentality and the right confidence. I like the approach that Self took, but it certainly must be frustrating for the players, coaches, and fans to get to the end target (tournaments).
    Well, sure. How else is a coach going to evaluate things if not in hindsight? I'm sure, like you, Kansas liked the approach to the schedule before the games were played; otherwise, they might've scheduled it differently (to the extent that they can control the difficulty of a schedule). But once the games are played and over with, Self is going to evaluate in hindsight to figure out whether he still likes that approach going forward. If Kansas returns to scheduling 4+ creampuffs every season from now on, we'll have our answer.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Well, sure. How else is a coach going to evaluate things if not in hindsight? I'm sure, like you, Kansas liked the approach to the schedule before the games were played; otherwise, they might've scheduled it differently (to the extent that they can control the difficulty of a schedule). But once the games are played and over with, Self is going to evaluate in hindsight to figure out whether he still likes that approach going forward. If Kansas returns to scheduling 4+ creampuffs every season from now on, we'll have our answer.
    Warning, long boring post ahead:

    KU scheduling is always a bit wonky. Due to some problems in other parts of the AD, the basketball team basically bankrolls the entire athletic department. That is one of the reasons why you won't see KU at the top of those "most valuable basketball programs" lists. The AD doesn't report hoops ticket revenue in their annual reports (which is massive), because it earmarks some of that money to go to other things. Like, that Turner Gill buyout (ugh) that we are still paying for, and the Charlie Weis one (ugh ugh) that is around the corner.

    As a result, just about every game on the schedule needs to net out hugely positively for KU. Which in general means home games, and lots of them. Some years that means we can get a national team involved for a national TV broadcast at home (Temple last year, Georgetown this year). Other years that means more cream puffs because the AD can't find anybody.

    It's not EVERY game, because everyone realizes that we need to play teams like Duke, Kentucky, MSU, Indiana, UCLA, etc. to build the team up. It also doesn't hurt that those games make money too. But those need to be in events like the Champions Classic, Maui, or home-and-homes.

    Now, Colorado does not fit that list, but Denver is a MASSIVE hub for KU alumni, so the AD schedules some games there, grabs some donations, goes home. This is also why games in Chicago are good for KU (more alumni), but a game in Charlotte would not be. The other big alumni base is north-to-south Texas, but we play a ton of conference games down there. This is also why KU will play one game in the Sprint Center in KC every year, as KC is the biggest alumni base (obviously). Side note: KU typically plays awful in the Sprint Center, losing to Davidson, UMass, Syracuse in recent years, almost falling to Oregon State last year, and almost dropping the #1/#16 game. Another reason why you might want to bet on New Mexico this weekend.

    Example: In the area, everyone's favorite complaint is... Why won't KU play Missouri in KC once a year? Answer? Easy: It wouldn't make any money. The gate would have to be split 50-50, and that's a loss for KU. If Missouri wants to come to AFH, they are more than welcome to. KU won't do a home-and-home with them right now, because they just aren't good enough nationally. KU-Florida on a Tuesday night is a national game (somewhat), KU-Missouri on a Wednesday is a fire-breathing rivalry that nobody really cares about outside of those two states.


    Back on topic... I would like to think that Bill Self is an all-knowing master of schedule manipulation, but it's just not that simple. This year's schedule is just a confluence of a lot of weird little events. I sincerely doubt anyone in the hoops program was ever faced with a decision like... "New Mexico might be too good for our young team to face at this point, can we push that back to 2014?"

  10. #30
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    Mar 2007
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    Mount Kisco, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by TexHawk View Post
    Example: In the area, everyone's favorite complaint is... Why won't KU play Missouri in KC once a year? Answer? Easy: It wouldn't make any money.
    Great overall post, and it highlights why K (and others) have been so smart at bankrolling the basketball program by creating those huge neutral site games with marquee opponents and corporate sponsors rather than playing the true road games that every writer pines for. As a pure fan, would I love a Duke/Kansas home-and-home at CIS and AFH - of course, it would be epic! As a savvy fan who realizes how much K has assured the future success of the program by endowing all the scholarships and god knows what else, would I be satisfied with a Duke/Kansas series played at MSG and the United Center? Yes, but I guess that's what the Champions Classic is, to some degree. As K always says, Duke has to work it even harder because our alumni base is smaller (although they do, in general, make some big loot!). It always bugs me when writers play that "for the love of the game" card and ignore the financial realities that these big time hoops programs operate under, subsidizing entire sports departments and such.

  11. #31
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    Feb 2008
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    Lewisville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    Great overall post, and it highlights why K (and others) have been so smart at bankrolling the basketball program by creating those huge neutral site games with marquee opponents and corporate sponsors rather than playing the true road games that every writer pines for. As a pure fan, would I love a Duke/Kansas home-and-home at CIS and AFH - of course, it would be epic! As a savvy fan who realizes how much K has assured the future success of the program by endowing all the scholarships and god knows what else, would I be satisfied with a Duke/Kansas series played at MSG and the United Center? Yes, but I guess that's what the Champions Classic is, to some degree. As K always says, Duke has to work it even harder because our alumni base is smaller (although they do, in general, make some big loot!). It always bugs me when writers play that "for the love of the game" card and ignore the financial realities that these big time hoops programs operate under, subsidizing entire sports departments and such.

    Interesting, and hadn't really thought about the business rationale for those neutral site games.

    Now, does that generate a revenue stream that goes directly to Duke, or is it part of an overall ACC media bank that gets divided among all member schools?

  12. #32
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    Mar 2007
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    Mount Kisco, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Interesting, and hadn't really thought about the business rationale for those neutral site games.

    Now, does that generate a revenue stream that goes directly to Duke, or is it part of an overall ACC media bank that gets divided among all member schools?
    I think K would argue that there are multiple benefits:
    -Money
    -Playing in large, NCAA tournament style arenas
    -Allowing alumni around the country, especially the NYC metro area, to see games in person
    -Expanding the brand via "event" type games
    -Assuring recruits they'll be playing in NBA arenas like MSG, United Center, etc.

    But, I don't think they have to share one penny with the ACC for non-conference games. The big arena allows them to sell more tickets and make more $. That's why Boeheim is loathe to play any road game he doesn't have to, every time he plays in the Carrier Dome, the program makes so much $$$, just like TexHawk was saying about Kansas and AFH. We fail to consider how much $ Duke leaves on the table with CIS being so small and the students attending for free - not that I'd ever suggest changing it - but that's why K has had to be so shrewd about developing alternate revenue streams.

  13. #33
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    Feb 2007
    TexHawk and BillyDat - great posts on the financial imperatives of scheduling.

    KU and Duke really do seem very similar in that regard. Whenever my non-Duke friends ask me, "Why do you guys play every year in MSG or the Meadowlands?", my reply is simply, "To make money to fund the program, and likely, other sports as well."

    TexHawk, I really appreciate your takes on KU basketball and bball in general. I think it's really cool when reasonable opposing fans like yourself stick around and contribute to this neighborhood pub of ours.

  14. #34
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    Apr 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by TexHawk View Post
    Who exactly expected Wiggins to be dominant? And what is your definition of "dominant"?
    1. Anyone using the name "Canadian Jordan" and/or "Maple Jordan," as well as the voters for the preseason All-America team. 2. "Top five players in all of college basketball."

    Do you disagree that comparing a person to one of the most dominant players in the history of the game implies that they expect him to dominate in some manner? Or that if people predict he will be one of the top five players in all of college basketball, that they expect him to be a dominant-type player this season (such as other first-teamers Doug McDermott and Marcus Smart)?

    You can quibble semantics, but the bottom line point is that Wiggins has been extremely overhyped by some people. It's not his fault (especially with the low-key way he has handled himself to date), but lots of people seemed to have had unrealistic expectations of him. Your expectations were probably a little more in line with where they "should" be, and he has definitely played well so far, but to argue that no one expected him to be a dominant-type player in college is a bit of a stretch IMO.

  15. #35
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    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    I think K would argue that there are multiple benefits:
    -Money
    -Playing in large, NCAA tournament style arenas
    -Allowing alumni around the country, especially the NYC metro area, to see games in person
    -Expanding the brand via "event" type games
    -Assuring recruits they'll be playing in NBA arenas like MSG, United Center, etc.

    But, I don't think they have to share one penny with the ACC for non-conference games. The big arena allows them to sell more tickets and make more $. That's why Boeheim is loathe to play any road game he doesn't have to, every time he plays in the Carrier Dome, the program makes so much $$$, just like TexHawk was saying about Kansas and AFH. We fail to consider how much $ Duke leaves on the table with CIS being so small and the students attending for free - not that I'd ever suggest changing it - but that's why K has had to be so shrewd about developing alternate revenue streams.
    Wow. This is way too informative and rational for a Wednesday afternoon. Thanks, Billy Dat. Post-of-the-month for me.

    Thanks again.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by El_Diablo View Post
    1. Anyone using the name "Canadian Jordan" and/or "Maple Jordan," as well as the voters for the preseason All-America team. 2. "Top five players in all of college basketball."

    Do you disagree that comparing a person to one of the most dominant players in the history of the game implies that they expect him to dominate in some manner? Or that if people predict he will be one of the top five players in all of college basketball, that they expect him to be a dominant-type player this season (such as other first-teamers Doug McDermott and Marcus Smart)?

    You can quibble semantics, but the bottom line point is that Wiggins has been extremely overhyped by some people. It's not his fault (especially with the low-key way he has handled himself to date), but lots of people seemed to have had unrealistic expectations of him. Your expectations were probably a little more in line with where they "should" be, and he has definitely played well so far, but to argue that no one expected him to be a dominant-type player in college is a bit of a stretch IMO.
    That's why I asked for someone to define "dominant". To me, "dominant" was Michael Beasley and Kevin Durant. Beasley averaged 26 ppg, and almost 13 rebounds. That's insane, he scored 39 points in AFH on the national champions and #1 defense in the country. Guys who are once in a decade type of "mature college talents". Whether they turn into the next Jordan is not really relevant. Wiggins is not at that level, and I would love to find a link to anyone who predicted he would average 26 ppg like Durant did.

    The "Maple Jordan" nonsense was never meant as "he will be Michael Jordan for KU". It was that he has the talent and athleticism to get there someday. Michael Jordan wasn't Michael Jordan as a freshman.


    When I watch Wiggins, I am seeing a "dominant" defensive player. Like, Anthony Davis level, without the blocked shot numbers. "Gamechanger". His offense is coming around with his confidence, but he certainly won't be as smooth on that end as someone like Jabari Parker this year. (The last I looked, his +/-, while flawed as a metric, is off the charts.)

    I don't see any reason why he shouldn't be considered for the All American team, so I don't think those preseason voters were terribly off in their judgement.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Wow. This is way too informative and rational for a Wednesday afternoon. Thanks, Billy Dat. Post-of-the-month for me.
    Thanks again.
    You're welcome, but I credit TexHawk for getting the subject started and articulated so well, especially vis-a-vis KU's specific issues, which are different than Duke's but similar in basis. I am always quick to jump on this topic because I hate when criticism doesn't factor in the reality of the environment - like kids who should stay in school rather than collect NBA millions. It happens all the time in pro sports when fans make crazy trade suggestions that would never work under the salary cap and get mad when you point this stuff out.

    It's like Thornton Mellon trying to reason with Professor Phillip Barbay.

  18. #38
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    California
    Quote Originally Posted by TexHawk View Post
    I would love to find a link to anyone who predicted he would average 26 ppg like Durant did.
    That's an arbitrary and rather specific hurdle you have selected. But is this close enough?

    Wiggins is "dealing with ridiculously high expectations that have some wondering whether Wiggins can have a season comparable to the one Kevin Durant had in his first and only year at Texas" and "is CBSSports.com's Preseason National Player of the Year."

    http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...er-of-the-year

    How about this?

    "Kevin Durant averaged 25.8 points and 11.1 rebounds per game during his freshman year and I expect Wiggins to come close to those numbers. I’d feel more comfortable predicting something closer to 23 points and 10 rebounds a game . . . ."

    "Something tells me Wiggins will win athlete of the year and that will propel him to the best season of college basketball that we have witnessed since Durant was lighting it up in the Big 12."

    http://www.rantsports.com/prep-sport...nsas-jayhawks/


    "But he also tried to dismiss some of the buzz that has come from the early comparisons to NBA stars LeBron James and Kevin Durant."

    http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebaske...g-12-media-day
    Last edited by El_Diablo; 12-11-2013 at 05:30 PM.

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