Short Bench?

[rocketeli]

Here's an interesting box score for those who are convinced Duke is some kind of outlier in terms of bench use:
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400506830

[Saratoga2]

It is one case but I also notice that Baylor won (great) by using 8 players heavily while Kentucky went with 5 players and a few cameos. It is an unfortunate fact that teams recruit far more players than they can give significant playing time to. It appears to be even more likely an issue with programs that can recruit at the highest level as often times very good players are left to languish on the bench. Duke fits that category.

The question I and others raised is whether a fatigued or foul troubled star player performs better than a fresh and rested very good player. Coaches know better than we do, but not playing these good players leaves them disheartened and candidates for transfer. All programs face this problem and we are no different. Coach K definitely uses a short bench but maybe no more so than other highly competitive programs. Where this approach could hurt the most is where a player is injured or sick for protracted periods and a team becomes very slim on backups.

Another obvious question is whether some of the experienced players who put up weak numbers despite their extensive playing times are providing better results than those deeper on the bench. The question has been talked about a great deal with Hairston and to a lesser extent Thornton being looked upon as players who might surrender some PT to athletes with high potential which remain on the bench. Semi and Marshall come to mind. Again, we have to hope that the coaches know best but those of us who watch just the games are left to wonder.

[greybeard]

It is one case but I also notice that Baylor won (great) by using 8 players heavily while Kentucky went with 5 players and a few cameos. It is an unfortunate fact that teams recruit far more players than they can give significant playing time to. It appears to be even more likely an issue with programs that can recruit at the highest level as often times very good players are left to languish on the bench. Duke fits that category.

The question I and others raised is whether a fatigued or foul troubled star player performs better than a fresh and rested very good player. Coaches know better than we do, but not playing these good players leaves them disheartened and candidates for transfer. All programs face this problem and we are no different. Coach K definitely uses a short bench but maybe no more so than other highly competitive programs. Where this approach could hurt the most is where a player is injured or sick for protracted periods and a team becomes very slim on backups.

Another obvious question is whether some of the experienced players who put up weak numbers despite their extensive playing times are providing better results than those deeper on the bench. The question has been talked about a great deal with Hairston and to a lesser extent Thornton being looked upon as players who might surrender some PT to athletes with high potential which remain on the bench. Semi and Marshall come to mind. Again, we have to hope that the coaches know best but those of us who watch just the games are left to wonder.

Both Semi and Marshall will get more playing time. I think Marshall will get around 20 minutes, probably more if his stamina holds up. If by Semi you mean Rasheed, his minutes I think will depend on the extent to which he can play the point. Cook is the guy who most needs a backup, and I think that K has decided that he needs Thorton on the court for the minutes he gets. Semi might well be closer to running the team AKA Cook, than Thorton, but K is dissatisfied with his inability to adapt his game to see the game more globally than he currently does. No one can replace Cook's combination, especially his ability late in the clock to get his shot, often a lay up, if the scorer's are covered; K might see Semi as potentially the closest to giving that to the team. If all this is so, and I begin this narrative solely on intuition, than I am not sure that pressuring Semi to adapt will not be counterproductive. I'm not K and have no real idea of what he is after in any case.

[throatybeard]

There's a reason it's 1A.

[Troublemaker]

The discussion of Duke's short bench is quite premature and will probably prove to be inaccurate.

Duke played a 9-man rotation in our last game against Michigan. Duke also played a 9-man rotation against Alabama. In between those two games, we played a 7-man rotation against Arizona. But, you'll note that against elite competition, the best coaches very often shorten their rotation. Sean Miller actually played fewer players and gave his bench fewer minutes than Coach K did in the Duke-Arizona game.

I think it's very possible Duke is trending towards a deep 9-man rotation. It might take the form of 5 perimeter players + 4 post players, or the unlikelier (but still possible based on talent) formulation of 6 perimeter players + 3 post players could also occur.

A 9-man rotation is a deep team. Perfect depth for a basketball team, I'd argue. Even with an 8-man rotation, I would not consider that to be "short." If you have a point guard, a wing, and a big man that you can rely on, that's a good thing to have.

Let's see how things shake out. I'd argue that as of right now, Coach K is on the path towards giving the "deep bench acolytes" exactly what they want, but they're too foolish, too impatient to recognize what is happening before their eyes. Duke is a very talented but young team, and it will take some time to develop a consistent rotation. Stay patient. Let it play out. Let the season breathe.

[rocketeli]

I think that if you look at a series of top team box scores you will see that the modal number of players that get 10+ minutes is somewhere between 7.5 and 8.5 and Duke tends to be right in that range.I'd like to see the "Duke always plays a short bench"meme retired because we don't really have substitution patterns or player use that are different from other top programs.

(as an aside, I feel that the coaches see the players in practice and know more about basketball than I do, so I rarely criticize their decisions. That being said, watching Josh Hairston (who I know is a great guy, works hard and wants to succeed as much as anybody) was the first time I remember hoping a Duke player would foul out.)

[Furniture]

I think we will see more and more of Marshall as we play more games.

[Jarhead]

I think we will see more and more of Marshall as we play more games.

If he can continues to play with the same intensity and results as he had in the last game we may see him on the starting roster.

[Furniture]

If he can continues to play with the same intensity and results as he had in the last game we may see him on the starting roster.

What I liked was that the rest of the team were genuinely pumped about him doing well. I think they know they will need him as many on this board have also pointed out.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I think we will see more and more of Marshall as we play more games.

If he can continues to play with the same intensity and results as he had in the last game we may see him on the starting roster.

We don't need Marshall to be a scorer, there are many other players who do that for us. We need him to play interior defense, rebound, and make foul shots (which may be the kicker...). He'll get some put back layups from the offensive rebounds he needs to get. And, he needs to be a high energy player, which doesn't seem to be a problem for him

[Indoor66]

We don't need Marshall to be a scorer, there are many other players who do that for us. We need him to play interior defense, rebound, and make foul shots (which may be the kicker...). He'll get some put back layups from the offensive rebounds he needs to get. And, he needs to be a high energy player, which doesn't seem to be a problem for him

I mostly agree with you Oz, but he does need to make himself a threat to score & pass. Otherwise his offensive value diminishes and he could clog the middle for the drivers.

[Furniture]

I mostly agree with you Oz, but he does need to make himself a threat to score & pass. Otherwise his offensive value diminishes and he could clog the middle for the drivers.

It was obvious to me from his few minutes in the last game that the potential is massive. I think that K is going to build him up slowly. Plenty of practice, increase the minutes and confidence. It's a question of time...

[azzefkram]

and make foul shots (which may be the kicker...)

While I would love him to make fouls shots, I only think it's an issue in end of game situations. I would love for opposing bigs to waste their fouls on hack-a-Marshall during the game. Get them in foul trouble and then let Jabari and Rodney go (more?) wild. Energy, defense, rebounding and the occasional put-back and I'd be a happy camper.

[gurufrisbee]

I think we'll keep seeing basically a ten man rotation. Jabari, Hood, and Cook will keep getting 35 minutes a night unless it's a blowout. THey are all just too good. The <cough> center position will keep being the three headed monster of Plumlee, Jefferson, Hairston. That trio will only ever get over 40 minutes total if in very rare occassions they play two of them at the same time, which only might happen 2-3 minutes a game. The SG position is almost in the same position now except there are FOUR with Sheed, Dawkins, Jones, and Tyler filling all those minutes (but they will average closer to 50-55 minutes as those guys are also the back ups for everything but center). So it's a ten man rotation with three guys playing a lot and seven guys playing smaller roles. I think this only changes IF someone in that group of seven steps up and says 'No, I'm a star like those other three and I'm not letting you give me less than 30.' (a.k.a. probably something only Sheed has the potential to do).

[Kedsy]

(but they will average closer to 50-55 minutes as those guys are also the back ups for everything but center).

They're the backups for center, too, because we've been going small (Jabari at C, Rodney at PF) for 5 or 10 (or more) minutes a game so far.

[Saratoga2]

I think we'll keep seeing basically a ten man rotation. Jabari, Hood, and Cook will keep getting 35 minutes a night unless it's a blowout. THey are all just too good. The <cough> center position will keep being the three headed monster of Plumlee, Jefferson, Hairston. That trio will only ever get over 40 minutes total if in very rare occassions they play two of them at the same time, which only might happen 2-3 minutes a game. The SG position is almost in the same position now except there are FOUR with Sheed, Dawkins, Jones, and Tyler filling all those minutes (but they will average closer to 50-55 minutes as those guys are also the back ups for everything but center). So it's a ten man rotation with three guys playing a lot and seven guys playing smaller roles. I think this only changes IF someone in that group of seven steps up and says 'No, I'm a star like those other three and I'm not letting you give me less than 30.' (a.k.a. probably something only Sheed has the potential to do).

Thornton is the only real sub for Quinn at this time, although Rasheed might do it and Matt appears to have some abilities along that line but is too inexperienced to put in to such a key position. So Tyler gets 5 to 8 minutes at backup PG and 15 at SG and he has a 20 minute night. That leaves 25 minutes to share between Rasheed, Matt and Andre. Now, with Alex out of consideration, we have some time open when Rodney is off the floor at the 3. That could also be filled by any of our true shooting guards or by Semi. Later in the season we may well need to rely on the 3 SG's and I think all of them can be contributors.

[Kedsy]

Thornton is the only real sub for Quinn at this time, although Rasheed might do it and Matt appears to have some abilities along that line but is too inexperienced to put in to such a key position. So Tyler gets 5 to 8 minutes at backup PG and 15 at SG and he has a 20 minute night. That leaves 25 minutes to share between Rasheed, Matt and Andre. Now, with Alex out of consideration, we have some time open when Rodney is off the floor at the 3. That could also be filled by any of our true shooting guards or by Semi. Later in the season we may well need to rely on the 3 SG's and I think all of them can be contributors.

I don't know that Alex has anything to do with it, nor Semi, really. Both of them have been playing PF/C minutes. The minutes when Rodney is off the floor were already going to Rasheed/Matt/Andre. Frankly so were/are the minutes when Jabari is off the floor and for the most part when our center collective is off the floor.

[Son of Jarhead]

Both Semi and Marshall will get more playing time. I think Marshall will get around 20 minutes, probably more if his stamina holds up. If by Semi you mean Rasheed, his minutes I think will depend on the extent to which he can play the point. Cook is the guy who most needs a backup, and I think that K has decided that he needs Thorton on the court for the minutes he gets. Semi might well be closer to running the team AKA Cook, than Thorton, but K is dissatisfied with his inability to adapt his game to see the game more globally than he currently does. No one can replace Cook's combination, especially his ability late in the clock to get his shot, often a lay up, if the scorer's are covered; K might see Semi as potentially the closest to giving that to the team. If all this is so, and I begin this narrative solely on intuition, than I am not sure that pressuring Semi to adapt will not be counterproductive. I'm not K and have no real idea of what he is after in any case.

I'm pretty sure that by Semi he meant Semi Ojeleye (6'7", 230lb, Freshman), not Rasheed Sulaimon (6'4", 190lb, Sophmore).

[kAzE]

Jefferson, Dawkins, and Jones have played well off the bench in recent games. I don't see a situation developing where any of those 3 guys fall out of the rotation completely. Jones or Dawkins seem to be the most likely to lose minutes to the other. Depending on game situation, you could see Coach K subbing those two guys out offense for defense or vice-versa. You absolutely have to imagine that Sulaimon gets it going and becomes a key guy in the rotation again, if not, play starter's minutes. At his best, he's the hybrid between Dawkins and Jones, and the only true two way shooting guard we have (at least until Jones has a break out offensive game, which could totally happen). Seems to me like a 9 man rotation is totally within reason. We have 11 guys who can all play. Hey, if basketball was 6 on 6, we'd be awesome.

[sagegrouse]

Jefferson, Dawkins, and Jones have played well off the bench in recent games. I don't see a situation developing where any of those 3 guys fall out of the rotation completely. Jones or Dawkins seem to be the most likely to lose minutes to the other. Depending on game situation, you could see Coach K subbing those two guys out offense for defense or vice-versa. You absolutely have to imagine that Sulaimon gets it going and becomes a key guy in the rotation again, if not, play starter's minutes. At his best, he's the hybrid between Dawkins and Jones, and the only true two way shooting guard we have (at least until Jones has a break out offensive game, which could totally happen). Seems to me like a 9 man rotation is totally within reason. We have 11 guys who can all play. Hey, if basketball was 6 on 6, we'd be awesome.

Deep within your heart, you know that we are going to see a lot of minutes with the following lineup, which lacks height but offers incredible offensive productivity:

Jabari
Hood
Two of Dawkins/Jones/Sulaimon
Cook

This would be a killer lineup against some teams.

sage