Deutschland ist Weltmeister!

[gumbomoop]

"Is life more like baseball, or is it more like soccer?"

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/11/op...an-region&_r=0

[JohnGalt]

ARG has far too many Man City guys, and they wear Carolina blue. Easy call. Deutschland!

WHOA. First, there's no such thing as "Carolina blue." It's a faded version of Duke Blue. Second, suggesting Argentina wears "Carolina blue" is similar to suggesting Duke uses the Central Connecticut State University Blue Devils' mascot. Backwards.

BRASIL DECIME Q SE SIENTEEEEE

[brevity]

ARG has far too many Man City guys, and they wear Carolina blue. Easy call. Deutschland!

WHOA. First, there's no such thing as "Carolina blue." It's a faded version of Duke Blue. Second, suggesting Argentina wears "Carolina blue" is similar to suggesting Duke uses the Central Connecticut State University Blue Devils' mascot. Backwards.

Yeah, if Argentina starts putting argyle on their jerseys, then we can complain.

So... Germany vs. Argentina. I was thinking the Hitler's Whereabouts World Cup Final, but social media is full of abusive Nazi analogies this week. No need to add to that.

How about the Dueling Pope World Cup Final?

pontificate.jpg

[fuse]

I didn't check to see if this was up thread, but quite a long analysis on Messi:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...is-impossible/

Good stuff.

[JohnGalt]

If I do, I think I want Aguero in there instead of Higuain in front of Messi, right?

I think that depends. Agüero was the most efficient striker in the Premier League last year but his club fitness issues have carried over into this tournament. Anytime you field a clearly half fit player you run the risk of 'wasting' a substitute (a la Diego Costa in the UCL Final) so while, generally speaking, Agüero is the superior striker to Higauín, I'm not sure it's a wise decision to start him. Also, as flat (and even maybe a little overweight) as Higuaín looked over the group stage and first couple knockout rounds, I think his performances against the Swiss and Dutch merit him continuing on as the starting target man. If you go that route, it also gives you the ability to throw Agüero on around the 70th, which no team (even a loaded German squad) would want to face.

Ditto Di Maria wrt fitness. I have a hard time believing Sabella would risk starting him.

I didn't check to see if this was up thread, but quite a long analysis on Messi:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...is-impossible/

Good stuff.

That really is an excellent, if at times stats-heavy, article. I've been telling some of my lukewarm friends for several years now to watch Messi whenever you can because one day he'll be in Greatest Ever debates...especially if they get a result tomorrow.

_______________

What are we thinking about today? It'll be interesting to see exactly how much Silva's absence meant. TBH, I'm rooting for a Brazilian victory if for nothing more than a little catharsis for a heartbroken nation. There's also too many unlikeable players on the Dutch side (Dirk excluded, obviously).

[gus]

I didn't think I'd watch the 3rd place game, but I did.

Wow. Brazil never looked good this tournament, but wow.

[JasonEvans]

It ain't all his fault, but Brazil's coach probably needs to leave Brazil right now and never come back. Whew...

I know Robben dives, but pulling him down like that in the first 2 minutes of the game was just pathetic by Brazil. That PK was perfectly placed.

-Jason "speaking of PKs, does anyone want to blame the Dutch coach for not saving a sub at the end for his keeper? The guy who subbed earlier in the tourney appeared waaay better against PKs" Evans

[YmoBeThere]

It ain't all his fault, but Brazil's coach probably needs to leave Brazil right now and never come back. Whew...

I know Robben dives, but pulling him down like that in the first 2 minutes of the game was just pathetic by Brazil. That PK was perfectly placed.

-Jason "speaking of PKs, does anyone want to blame the Dutch coach for not saving a sub at the end for his keeper? The guy who subbed earlier in the tourney appeared waaay better against PKs" Evans

He addressed it head on the same day. Van Persie was gassed and he felt not helpful to the cause at that time.

Felipao can still point to his 2002 victory, I think the players will take the bigger fall for the last week of play. It's not like it was 2-1 and he should have saved a substitution in case there were penalty kicks. His guys got outscored 10-1, that's not a manager issue(other than team selection) that is utter failure on the part of the players.

Maybe I'm sympathetic to his plight, he lived in Canoas when I was working in Gravatai(both suburbs of Porto Alegre). Plus it was 2002 when I was there.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Hi all,

It's been a while since I last posted here. After our loss, I went to the North End for Italian food here in Boston, drank a bottle of wine (or two) with friends, and woke up the next day at 4:30am with the worst headache, fever, and cold in my last decade. Finally recovered, which is why I've been absent. Anywho, here are my thoughts from the last week:

1) I don't like the Argies at all. Never have, never will. 1978 was before I was born, but it still hurts. Plus, they have historically played dirty (1998, anyone?). However, I have to tip my hat to their strategy on Wednesday. Excellent! Not only did they contain Robben, but they really prevented any creativity/chances from the Dutch side.

2) The Dutch defense was the three "S" that Dickie V loves to use. This Dutch defense is so refreshing and so incredible. Holland has rarely had a good defense, even in 1998. I mean, we absolutely, 100% shut down Messi. That's not easy to do. Our defense has been better than our offense, and that's like saying that Duke's offense is waaaaaaay better than its defense. If I told you that, you'd be shocked. Ala 2013-2014... But I regress. I love our young, athletic, smart defense. It's a good sign of things to come.

3) Brazil is...ummmmmm...terrible. How can you like this Brazil team? They are entitled, lazy, incompetent, and a collection of talented cry babies who think that Neymar is the second coming of Jesus. Brazil has been my least favorite team in the world since 1994 (when they crushed our WC hopes in the quarters) and couldn't be more pleased with how things turned out for Selecao. $11 billion down the drain and nothing to show for it. This team has put this country in the dumps, emotionally and financially. Poor Brazilian citizens.

4) I love Robben. I know he has a reputation for diving, and he does. But in his last three games, he played clean, smart, and amazing. He is still the player of the tournament for me. Amazing, amazing player. I hope he still has legs in four years. He could use him.


Tomorrow's Review: Argies v Mannschaft (3pm EST)
I really hate how this game has been advertised: the Germans vs Messi. Messi is amazing, and probably the best player in the tournament. But Germany is...well, Germany: efficient, smart, calculated, and versatile. Messi may be the best player on the pitch, but the Germans account for players #2-8 (Lahm, Muller, Neuer, Schwinny, Khedira, Kroos, Hummels, the right Boateng brother, etc). They are a collection of assets, but more importantly they function as a team. Unlike Belgium, Brazil, and Italy, Germany = team > sum of players. It's a thing of beauty. Argentina is talented with a disciplined defense, strong midfielders, opportunistic forwards, and some guy named Messi. But shut Messi down and the creativity really dies (see Argies vs Holland). Higuain has had an okay WC, Di Maria isn't 100% (and hasn't looked great), and Aguero has looked really disappointing. Mascherano has looked like the second best player on this team, but he's a holding midfielder and doesn't provide that much creativity.

Germany has better wingers, a much better midfield, and are more creative. Argentina may have the better defense, but Germany's D only needs to shut down Messi and neutralize the other players. It's harder than it sounds, but very manageable. Good luck trying to shut down Ozil, Kroos, Muller, Khedira, Schwinny, Klose, Schullre (when he gets off the bench), and the full backs who love coming forward.

This is Germany's World Cup. Come on UEFA, break that South American curse. I can't believe this, but as a Dutchman, I'll be rooting for Mannschaft. Prediction: Germany 2 - 0 Argentina.

[greybeard]

http://prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com/2...-is-exhausted/

[Troublemaker]

My futbol knowledge is pretty weak, dabbling in the sport once every four years. Here are my thoughts on the Final anyway.

I want to pick Germany to win but I'm still afraid of this stat: Of the 17 previous World Cups played in the Americas or in Europe, never has a European team won in the Americas (0 for 7), and only once has a team from the Americas won in Europe (Brazil in Sweden, 1958). Germany is trying to turn 1 for 17 into 2 for 18 (and 0 for 7 into 1 for 8). Home-continent advantage does seem to exist. I also don't like that Germany's coming off that demolition of Brazil and are considered the heavy favorites now. I think early in the game, Argentina will have a mental advantage and will be able to play looser.

This will be a very defensive game to start. With Di Maria having aggravated his injury in practice today and likely out for the final tomorrow, I think Argentina will go into a defensive shell much like how they played Holland (and how Holland played them) in their semifinal match. Argentina will go 5-3-2 with Mascherano playing a sweeper role. He's been magnificent and if he shuts down Germany, there'd be some irony since it was Beckenbauer that made playing sweeper cool. Messi will have to often pull back into the midfield to help out so that Germany doesn't completely dominate that area. Meanwhile, Germany's attack will be slowed because they'll use three defenders on Messi like almost every other team has done. Messi will encounter Schweinsteiger and Khedira, the latter of whom will have to stay back unlike against Brazil when he spent so much time attacking in Brazil's half, and also leftback Howedes when Messi ventures right as he will be wont to do.

Argentina will rely on their shutdown defense and hope that Messi can use his brilliance to basically score on his own on a counterattack. I think this strategy will look brilliant because Messi WILL get his World Cup Final Moment to give Argentina a 1-0 lead in the 1st half on a counterattack where he loses Germany's MFs and exposes Howedes, a relative weakness for Germany compared to the rest of their team, for an angle that Neuer can't stop.

Does Argentina hold on for a 1-nil win? I say no. I think going down by one goal will awaken Germany and put them in the proper mindset. No longer the heavy favorite, they'll start to play better and in full-attack mode. I think Germany will bombard Argentina's defensive shell with precision attacks through the air and on the ground, wearing them down. Ozil (Germany's other relative weakness this tournament) finally contributes and feeds Klose on a header for the equalizer just before the half ends. This deflates Argentina and gets the Brazilians in the stands that were previously deflated to come alive and really root on Germany. In the 2nd-half, under heavy attack, it's just a matter of time before Argentina lets another one through, this time by Thomas Muller who scores on a rebound off the goalie in the 88th minute to give Germany a 2-1 win and Muller the Golden Boot due to having more assists than James Rodriguez. Germany, World Cup Champs, 2014.

[JohnGalt]

Hi all,

It's been a while since I last posted here. After our loss, I went to the North End for Italian food here in Boston, drank a bottle of wine (or two) with friends, and woke up the next day at 4:30am with the worst headache, fever, and cold in my last decade. Finally recovered, which is why I've been absent. Anywho, here are my thoughts from the last week:

Yikes! Glad to know you're feeling better!

1) I don't like the Argies at all. Never have, never will. 1978 was before I was born, but it still hurts. Plus, they have historically played dirty (1998, anyone?). However, I have to tip my hat to their strategy on Wednesday. Excellent! Not only did they contain Robben, but they really prevented any creativity/chances from the Dutch side.

I'm not sure that's fair. I think you may be remembering the '98 squad as particularly dirty because of the Simeone incident with Beckham. Plus, the Dutch in 2010 weren't exactly figures of purity:

DeJongAlonsoFoulHollandSpainWorldCupF_2476492_thumb.jpg

If anything, you should blame Cruyff for 1978. He was an exceptional talent so his petulance was often overlooked, but skipping out on a major tournament like that? Ouch. There's got to be at least a little resentment in Holland right?

3) Brazil is...ummmmmm...terrible. How can you like this Brazil team? They are entitled, lazy, incompetent, and a collection of talented cry babies who think that Neymar is the second coming of Jesus. Brazil has been my least favorite team in the world since 1994 (when they crushed our WC hopes in the quarters) and couldn't be more pleased with how things turned out for Selecao. $11 billion down the drain and nothing to show for it. This team has put this country in the dumps, emotionally and financially. Poor Brazilian citizens.

Agreed. I've been commenting for a couple years now that it was unfortunate for Brazil that they'd be hosting the cup during a down period in terms of overall [attacking] talent. Weirdly though, what should have been their strong suit (defense) was absolutely obliterated over the last two matches (as we all saw). Most people consider Thiago Silva to be one of the top couple center-halves in world. David Luiz just moved to PSG from Chelsea for 50 mill. Dante, who starts for Munich, can barely get a look. Dani Alves (although aging) and Marcelo have been stalwarts in the Clasico.

Weird.

4) I love Robben. I know he has a reputation for diving, and he does. But in his last three games, he played clean, smart, and amazing. He is still the player of the tournament for me. Amazing, amazing player. I hope he still has legs in four years. He could use him.

I think what's most amazing about Robben is that he's been doing what he's been doing for all these years with essentially one move. HE'S GOING TO GO LEFT, PEOPLE. Everyone knows it, but he still gets it done. And even though he's 30 now it doesn't appear like he's lost even a little pace. Usually it's a worry for speedy wingers when they start getting into their late 20s because that pace can start deteriorating. But he's still flying down the wing and cutting left.

...BREAKDOWN...Prediction: Germany 2 - 0 Argentina.

It was clear throughout the tournament that Sabella had tweaked his tactics to get the most out of Messi. It appeared to be at the expense of Di Maria but now that he's injured, it no longer matters. It was always an issue for him and how he'd squeeze Higuain, Di Maria, Messi, Aguero, and even Lavezzi into the same lineup anyway. Injury problems have more or less resolved that problem and now the game is more or less 'with the other team man-marking Messi, how can we best get him to contribute.'

This Argentina team is a strange one because (like I mentioned above), it was expected that that attacking unit would have to score a lot of goals in order to make up for a shoddy defense that was likely to let in a lot of goals. Yet the attack has only scored 8 goals and the defense has only let in 3. Either way, I would expect Argentina to remain compact - Enzo Perez isn't nearly as attack-minded as Di Maria and will more than likely tuck in on the right to become a "central winger" alongside Masch and Biglia. The attacking unit will consist of Lavezzi running in behind the space left by Lahm in order to link up with Messi and Higuain. Higuain has looked better and better as the matches have continued and he'll be expected to work hard in leading the line and not worry about tiring as Aguero should be fit enough to come on around 75. Something I think Sabella should consider is having Enzo on the left in order to try and contain Lahm's runs forward. It would also allow Messi, Higuain, and Lavezzi to attack Howedes, Germany's clear weak link.

I would expect Germany to press high immediately to try and get another early goal and force Argentina to step out of the shell. They certainly have the horses to make it happy but - like everyone - they'll be leery of Messi Magic pulling an El Diego and winning it for Argentina. He's ruthlessly efficient (as Fuse's article explains in detail) and only needs a little space to express himself on the field. It would be unexpected but Jogi could consider moving Lahm into the holding midfield zone again in order to have him track Messi. Germany have looked much better with him in his natural FB position though so I wouldn't expect it. It would also be at the expense of fan-favorite Schwinny, which is a risky move for the world cup final.

Ultimately, I expect both teams to be relatively reactive and to come into the match as we'd expect. There's a lot at stake.

BOLD prediction: Argentina 2 - Germany 1...in extra time.

(made with the heart over the head)

[OldPhiKap]

A lot has been said, rightfully so, about the tv ratings for the US games as a proxy for the popularity of soccer. I will be curious to see the ratings for the final -- much more like the SB or WS, where your team probably isn't in it.

[OldPhiKap]

"Shakira is staying in our hotel. I hope she has the room with the hot water.."

Nice.

Argentina with the better first half, AND wearing Duke blue.

[OldPhiKap]

Ah. Pulling for Argentina, but the best team in the Tournament won. Congrats to Germany.

[NSDukeFan]

Ah. Pulling for Argentina, but the best team in the Tournament won. Congrats to Germany.

True enough. I was pulling for Germany, though I was hoping Argentina would get a late equalizer even though I dislike penalty shots determining a winner. (Then why was I hoping Argentina equalized, I don't know, more thrills, I guess). Germany controlled the play for much of the game, but Argentina seemed to have as many good scoring opportunities (Higuain, if you are a world class striker don't you have to do better than that first half shot, if you are gifted that kind of chance). And Argentina had Messi, so as much as he was triple teamed, quadruple teamed and whole team teamed, I knew that it wouldn't take much for him to find the back of the net.
Argentina's last two games were both remarkable (to me) in the number of clean tackles that both they and their opponents made. There were three very quality teams in the semi finals. Very enjoyable tournament. I'm sad that the next World Cup won't be for another 3 years and 11 months. At least there are 4 Duke men's basketball seasons, a couple of Olympics and a Euro before then, and some other sports and activities to keep me entertained, but still, there's nothing like the World Cup to me.

[JohnGalt]

What a tournament. I wanted Argentina to win, but Germany are more than deserving. The match was more/less even except for about 3 seconds of brilliance from Mario Götze. I'm already in full post-World Cup depression mode.

Congrats, Germany. Well-earned.

[Reisen]

This game was basically Duke-UConn 1999, if Duke had won.

I really thought Germany was going to lose. I was pulling for them hard, and they played very well, but Argentina's defense did a great job of just keeping them alive (somewhat like in our game against Germany). Germany controlled the game and pressed, but Argentina had many dangerous counters. Too bad Khedira was out...

[flyingdutchdevil]

Random thoughts about the final and the World Cup in general

1) The WC Final lived up to it's billing. It was a great game and a really exciting game. As a neutral observer (okay, I wanted Germany to win), I really enjoyed the two even sides with Germany's constant runs and Argentina's disciplined back 4 and counter attacks. Argentina had the better chances, Germany had the better game. Messi was given more space than he normally gets but couldn't get it past Neuer. Higuain crossed a thin line from becoming hero to villain. Muller had a few great chances. Schurrle and Gotze provided the beautiful finish. Lovely game. Just lovely.

2) Neuer proves he is on a class by himself. With respect to WC Heroes Howard, Ochoa, and Navas, and Amazing Keepers Buffon, Casillas, Ter Stegen, and de Gea, Neuer is a goalkeeping class all to himself. He doesn't make spectacular saves as much as Ochoa or Navas, but this is because his presence completely scares opponents. Higuain, Palacio, and even Messi all missed because of Neuer's presence, not his saving abilities. Neuer is 6'4" with a wingspan that would make shooting guards jealous. Neuer is also smart, calculated, and quick. He deserved the Golden Glove.

3) UEFA continues to rule the football world. The last three world cups have had the following last 3 finishers: 2006 - Italy, France, Germany; 2010 - Spain, the Netherlands, Germany; 2014 - Germany, Argentina, the Netherlands. That's 8 of the 9 last three top 3 finishers coming from Europe. On top of that, two of the top three finishers at the World Cup held on South American soil her European, including the World Cup Champion. South America has indeed had a mini revival with Chile and Colombia, and Argentina is looking amazing. However, no one has or can displace Europe right now. All the Youth Systems set up in Spain, Germany, and France is the last two decades are really paying off (thanks to the Netherlands). In 2018, with the World Cup on European soil in colder climates and violent fans, I don't see how Europe doesn't win again.

4) The World Cup, despite being the top spectator sport and facing one-game eliminations, is still very predictable. Here are the consensus four favorites heading into the tournament (in no order): Spain, Germany, Brazil, Argentina. Here are the four semi-finalists: Germany, Brazil, Argentina, the Netherlands. Spain's meltdown was a shocker. So was the Netherlands being in the semis. But the finals brought Germany and Argentina, two of the favorites, together. The World Cup is a predictable tournament. In the last ~6+ World Cups, no one is surprised by the Finalists. The semis often produce a shocker country (the Netherlands, Uruguay, Bulgaria, Sweden, South Korea, etc), but the finalists and the World Cup Champion are often predictable. Despite being a Beautiful Game that everyone can play, the team's with the most talent often win out.

5) Fantastic World Cup. Despite a few issues here and there (suspect reffing, Neymar's injury, a few diving issues, hot weather), this World Cup was amazing: goals, great players playing well, new players coming into the spotlight, overachievers, underachievers, passion, emotion, good managers, little infighting (African teams aside). In fact, this World Cup was sooooooo good that few people outside of Brazil talked about how the $11 billion cost will cripple Brazil for a very, very long time.

6) Teams over achieved and under achieved. And that's beautiful. My single favorite part of the World Cup is...watching my team win. My second favorite is watching which teams surprise and which teams falter.
Overachievers (in no particular order): USA, the Netherlands, Costa Rica, France, Mexico, Colombia
Underachievers (in no particular order): Spain, Uruguay, Italy, England, Brazil, Asian teams, African teams not named Nigeria or Algeria, Portugal, Brazil again (for good measure)

7) 2018 favorites already established. It's four years away, and some players will develop better than expected and others will develop worse. However, we can already see who the top 6-7 teams will be. In order:
-Germany: yes, many of their stars will be old and may not even be on the 23-man roster (Schwinny, Lahm, Klose), but most will be in their prime (Reus, Kroos, Khedira, Gotze, Neuer, Ozil, Schurrle, Hummels, OMG...). Good news for everyone else: teams rarely, if ever, win back-to-back WCs.
-Belgium: It really hurts to write that Belgium will be a favorite, but they will. Just like everyone thought, Belgium has this amazing collection of assets that didn't know how to play with each other. In four year's time, when most players will be in their prime, they will probably have figured it out. Gross...
-Colombia: Falcao will be 32, but Ha-mes will be in his prime. They have the pieces around them to look amazing.
-Spain: Old guard out, new guard in. Spain just keeps on producing talent after talent. However, I expect that Euro 2016 will feature a mixed collection of old and new players. When Spain loses, there will be cries to only play new players. And the new players will be good, but they will be unproven and not have gelled.
-Netherlands: Bad news - Robben, van Persie, and Sneijder will be 34. Good news - our midfield will be one of the tops with Strootman, van Ginkel, Clasie, and others, and our defense is super young and looked like a top 3 defense in the WC.
-Argentina: the best facet of Argentina this year, their defense, will be too old to play in the next WC. Messi will be 31 and just past his prime (his technique will get better, his pace slower). Higuain will be 30, Mascherano will be non-existent, but Aguero and Di Maria will be in their prime.
-Chile: Really good, young talent. Sanchez will be in his prime, and Vidal will be just past it. Don't think they have enough solid pieces to go all the way.

8) My World Cup XI:

GK - Manuel Neuer, Germany: obviously
D - Javier Mascherano, Argentina: the main reason Argentina made it to the finals
D - Ron Vlaar, the Netherlands: find me a better defensive center-back during this WC. He was simply amazing
D - Jerome Boateng, Germany: the most under-rated German player. He was good-to-great in the tournament and amazing in the final game.
D - Philip Lahm, Germany: the captain, the holding midfielder, the true puppet master. He didn't wow, but he didn't screw up either. Vintage Lahm.
M - Neymar, Brazil: with him, they still wouldn't have won. But at least they would have looked more competent.
M - James Rodriguez, Colombia: Golden Boot winner, scored in every game he played
M - Toni Kroos, Germany: poor final, but had good games for every game throughout
F - Arjen Robben, the Netherlands: my player of the tournament, because he was always a threat. Argentina did shut him down for 90% of the game, but during that other 10% he was fabulous
F - Lionel Messi, Argentina: the facilitator for the second place team. Always double, tripled, or quadrupled-teamed. Allowed other players to shine.
F - Christiano Ronaldo, Portugal: kidding! Karim Benzema, France: made France potent, wonderful striker.

[gus]

I can't believe it's over already! Despite the occasional whinging about diving, I really enjoyed this World Cup. On to the Euro Cup! Qualifying starts in September.