Should we root for Carolina tonight?

[Billy Dat]

I watched the entire UNC-Mich State game. My major observation is that the UNC players were having a blast -- very energetic, trying to move at the speend of light. The Mich. State team acted like it didn't want to be there -- and that's for a home game with the stands full of students.

My minor observation is that JM MacAdoo has the worst free-throw form since -- I don't know -- maybe Chris Burgess. His arc is 6 to 8 feet -- and this for a guy who is closer to 7 feet than six feet. He should watch Mason Plumlee's form after he started hitting FTs last season. Egad! What am I saying?

It's funny, your description of the MSU players reminds me that despite Izzo's vaunted run of success, his team's have rarely if ever been ranked #1. Heavy lies the crown, Sparty!

For the Heels, maybe Roy's pushing the "We've got nothing to lose" buttons in an attempt to keep the kids loose. They may be mercurial but top 5 scalps are top 5 scalps. Good for them, and I hope they lose the rest of their games.

Would you trade a UNC Final Four birth this year for a Duke win over FSU on Saturday? Hmmm? Hmmm?

[MChambers]

Would you trade a UNC Final Four birth this year for a Duke win over FSU on Saturday? Hmmm? Hmmm?

Only if we also go to the Final Four and win it all.

[Troublemaker]

Would you trade a UNC Final Four birth this year for a Duke win over FSU on Saturday? Hmmm? Hmmm?

Oooh, that is a devilish proposal.

If UNC gets to lock up one of the Final Four berths, that means Duke has 25% less odds of making it to the Final Four from where our current odds stand since there are only three Final Four berths remaining.

So the trade seems to be:

(A) Reduce Duke's odds of making the national basketball semifinals by 25% AND give UNC 100% odds of making it to the national basketball semifinal and concomitant 25% odds of winning the national championship (roughly).

traded for

(B) 100% odds of Duke winning the conference title in football.

I think I'd rather just let it play out. National/regional championships are more important than conference championships. And, to me, basketball is my preferred sport.

[Billy Dat]

Oooh, that is a devilish proposal....I think I'd rather just let it play out. National/regional championships are more important than conference championships. And, to me, basketball is my preferred sport.

Devilish indeed. I might argue that a conference championship, in this case, might be more important to the future of Duke Football than a National/Regional Championship would be for basketball. Assuming the NCAA bracketologists tend to never put Duke and UNC in the same regional, their chances of making the Final Four shouldn't impact ours. But, let's assume it does, and what I am really asking is would you (A) Give UNC a Final Four birth and (B) trade Duke hoops making the Final Four for (C) Duke to beat FSU in the ACC title game on Saturday?

I will wimp out with the following answer. I already get in enough trouble with my wife for watching every conceivable Duke basketball-related event. That tension has ratcheted up in the last month as the football games have been on national television. Duke's lack of a football program has generally kept me away from college football as a fan for the past 20 years. If we beat FSU, and reap even greater recruiting success, and therefore build a program that is always in the top 25 mix with potential to someday make a playoff run if they expand to 16 teams...I may be headed for divorce court, and no one wants that. The Knicks run of success has been bad enough on that score, luckily they stink again.

Once again, simply more evidence that the Duke Football "thing" is making me think strange thoughts, including success for UNC basketball.

[royalblue]

Best day ever March 30 1991 Duke beats UNLV in the varsity game and earlier Dean gets ejected from a National Semi Final while Roy beats Smith in the Final Four so if I could have another day like that and also let the Duke football team win this Saturday that sounds like a Blue Devil Party

[gurufrisbee]

NEVER

Two favorite teams:

Duke

and

Whoever is playing (and hopefully beating) Carolina.

[dukelifer]

UK just lost to Baylor. I would not be surprised if they lose to UNC in Chapel Hill in a few days - so that could be three top 10 wins for Roy's boys. Something is not right with that picture.

[DukieInKansas]

The title of this thread makes me laugh every time I see it.
LGD!

9f9f9f

[NYBri]

Not so certain the Holes lose to UK.

Interesting year so far. Might a mid major creep to the top spot again?

[freshmanjs]

Well, I did say "I understand that players improve from one season to the next" in my original post, so I do understand that. And I suppose you're right about the parallel to our 2010 team. But our 2010 team started at #9 and was in the lower half of the top 10 for most of the season, really until late February.

So, I'm not saying Michigan State can't make some noise in the Tournament, or can't earn a high ranking over the course of the season, I'm asking why right from the start of this season they were ranked top three and after one decent win ranked #1.

Especially since, after watching some of the UK game and most of the UNC game, Michigan State looks pretty much the same as last year's team. Appling and Payne look a little better, Harris is still dealing with nagging injuries, and they miss Nix in the middle.



Because it's December 5.

According to Pomeroy, UNC's schedule (Oakland, Holy Cross, Belmont, Richmond, Louisville, UAB, Michigan State) is ranked #14 while Duke's schedule (Davidson, Kansas, FAU, UNCA, ECU, Vermont, Alabama, Arizona, Michigan) is ranked #119. Their performance against a supposedly much more difficult schedule is why they're #8.

If you want to dig deeper into why their schedule is better, UNC has only played one really bad team and we've played five (numeric ranks are from today's Pomeroy).

UNC's Schedule
---------------
Louisville #1
Michigan State #12
Richmond #61
Belmont #63
UAB #95
Holy Cross #109
Oakland #184

Duke's Schedule
---------------
Arizona #6
Kansas #10
Michigan #27
Alabama #47
Davidson #142
Vermont #156
ECU #172
FAU #255
UNCA #266

UNC will start to drop a little when they play their December schedule (which includes teams currently ranked #5, #68, #142, #222, #313, and #326), because they play several bad teams. Their ACC games will bolster their schedule strength, but if/when they get knocked around, their rating will go down.

Duke's remaining non-conference schedule isn't that good, either (#23, #151, #190, #258). To rise in the rankings we'll have to play well against the tough ACC schedule.

I've had a chance to look at the KenPom ratings more closely this morning. Since the ratings are adjusted for SOS, I'm not sure I understand your logic. It is absolutely possible to be highly ranked (or to move up the rankings) while playing an easy schedule. In fact, Louisville (#1) has SOS ranked 336 and 4 of the top 10 have SOS ranked higher than 200.

So, the fact that it's early in the season and it' s small sample size might explain why UNC is ranked high. But, their SOS really shouldn't explain it unless you believe KenPom's SOS adjustment is both a) flawed and b) flawed in such a way that uniquely rewards UNC for its SOS, but does not reward other teams with high SOS

[Kedsy]

I've had a chance to look at the KenPom ratings more closely this morning. Since the ratings are adjusted for SOS, I'm not sure I understand your logic. It is absolutely possible to be highly ranked (or to move up the rankings) while playing an easy schedule. In fact, Louisville (#1) has SOS ranked 336 and 4 of the top 10 have SOS ranked higher than 200.

So, the fact that it's early in the season and it' s small sample size might explain why UNC is ranked high. But, their SOS really shouldn't explain it unless you believe KenPom's SOS adjustment is both a) flawed and b) flawed in such a way that uniquely rewards UNC for its SOS, but does not reward other teams with high SOS

First of all, if you want to be technical about it, Pomeroy's overall SOS numbers don't really have anything to do with a team's rating. His rating measures how well your offense does against the other teams' defensive ratings and how well your defense does against the other teams' offensive ratings and then applies a Pythagorean formula to come up with the rating. I just used overall SOS in my post as shorthand because listing all the offensive and defensive ratings would have made it too difficult to read.

Second, especially this early in the season, doing something like scoring 93 points against the #3 defense is going to overinflate your offensive rating. And givng up less than a point per possession actually helped their defensive rating in a loss to UAB. Etc., etc.

As far as other top Pomeroy teams playing poor schedules, there are two main ways to get a good Pomeroy ranking. You can either play awful teams and just crush them, or you can play a strong schedule and not get crushed. UNC has not been uniquely rewarded, but they are the only top 15 schedule in the top 95 teams in Pomeroy's rankings, so it may look unique.

Finally, the schedule adjustment in Pomery is flawed, as it is in pretty much all computer rankings. If a top 40 team plays #150 or #300, would you expect more or less the same level of domination, but the computer thinks a 20 point win over #150 to be a much better result than a 20 point win over #300.

As the season wears on and the sample size increases, the things that lead to crazy-looking results will smooth out. That's why the ratings don't tell us so much in early December.

[oldnavy]

First of all, if you want to be technical about it, Pomeroy's overall SOS numbers don't really have anything to do with a team's rating. His rating measures how well your offense does against the other teams' defensive ratings and how well your defense does against the other teams' offensive ratings and then applies a Pythagorean formula to come up with the rating. I just used overall SOS in my post as shorthand because listing all the offensive and defensive ratings would have made it too difficult to read.

Second, especially this early in the season, doing something like scoring 93 points against the #3 defense is going to overinflate your offensive rating. And givng up less than a point per possession actually helped their defensive rating in a loss to UAB. Etc., etc.

As far as other top Pomeroy teams playing poor schedules, there are two main ways to get a good Pomeroy ranking. You can either play awful teams and just crush them, or you can play a strong schedule and not get crushed. UNC has not been uniquely rewarded, but they are the only top 15 schedule in the top 95 teams in Pomeroy's rankings, so it may look unique.

Finally, the schedule adjustment in Pomery is flawed, as it is in pretty much all computer rankings. If a top 40 team plays #150 or #300, would you expect more or less the same level of domination, but the computer thinks a 20 point win over #150 to be a much better result than a 20 point win over #300.

As the season wears on and the sample size increases, the things that lead to crazy-looking results will smooth out. That's why the ratings don't tell us so much in early December.

All that stuff is over my head. That is why I just like to watch and put the "eye" test to teams. UNC's eye test so far is... who the heck knows? Talk about bipolar! I think they much like the computer rankings will level out as the year goes on. They are not as bad as their loss to Belmont (or game against Holy Cross), nor do I believe that they are they as good as their wins over MSU or UL.

I think it is probably wise to wait until after the first round of ACC/conference games to start predicting FF potential for most teams, but especially a team like UNC that has shown such wide swings against such a wide range of talented teams.

After the Belmont game, I thought that they may lose all 4 of the upcoming games (UL, UAB, MSU, and UK)... but now they have won two of the games I was sure they would lose (UL and MSU) and lost the one I thought they had the best chance to win (UAB)... AND, if I had to make a bet, I would pick UNC over UK right now...

At this point, I don't know if they are going to be an NIT team or a FF team...

I do like how the year is shaping up, with no one dominate team and lots and lots of really good teams that will be fun to watch and see which ones rise to the top!

Duke looks as good or at least has the potential to be as good as anybody I have seen thus far... I like that.