MBB: Duke vs. Michigan Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[azzefkram]

Stop. Just stop.

Oh my

[BD80]

This is not a game where we will see MP3. UM only has two significant players above 6'6" - 6'10" McGary avg 25 mpg and 6'10" Jon Horford avg 15 mpg (23 mpg when McGary was out).

6' 8" 250 lb Jordan Morgan avgs 10 mpg (9th on the team - avg 13.5 mpg while McGary was out and got 16 min in the Coppin State blow out) and 2.7 ppg - 3.6 rpg

Jabari should match up well with McGary with help from Amile and Josh. The key will be keeping up with him running the floor. Horford or Morgan aren't likely to have break out games, they are strong (250#) but not great offensive threats.

This will be a battle of the wings. A key is that we have a junior point guard and they start a freshman.

[Kedsy]

Until MPIII plays 15-20 minutes per game for a stretch of 3-5 games, we will never know whether he can fill our needs.

You know, after reading the Arizona game thread and seeing this, maybe there really is something here. I propose the sole way Duke can get out of its horrible funk is if the only players who see the court had in their careers played fewer than 20 minutes for Duke coming into the season. Thus, we need to start a lineup of Matt at PG, Rodney at SG, Semi at SF, Jabari at PF, and Marshall at C. Only then can we achieve Nirvana.

[freshmanjs]

Until MPIII plays 15-20 minutes per game for a stretch of 3-5 games, we will never know whether he can fill our needs. Disappointed that he has not gotten the opportunity. What did he too so terribly against Arizona to only justify 2 or 3 minutes? Coach K has forgotten more basketball than I ever knew, but I
would like it if MPIII were part of the "next play". Lets Go Duke - beat the "Not The Fab Five"

this actually points to an even greater dilemma. there are infinite lineup possibilities that have not been tested for 15-20 minutes per game. we have no way to know which of them might be the savior lineup. and we don't have time to test them all. aaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

EDIT: As sagegrouse points out below, the combinations are, of course, not infinite.

[sagegrouse]

this actually points to an even greater dilemma. there are infinite lineup possibilities that have not been tested for 15-20 minutes per game. we have no way to know which of them might be the savior lineup. and we don't have time to test them all. aaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Let me be the first math wannabe to weigh in. Let's see. Twelve players and five on the court at any time. I get 792 possible combinations, which, at 20 minutes per lineup, would take 396 games to test.

sagegrouse

[azzefkram]

You know, after reading the Arizona game thread and seeing this, maybe there really is something here. I propose the sole way Duke can get out of its horrible funk is if the only players who see the court had in their careers played fewer than 20 minutes for Duke coming into the season. Thus, we need to start a lineup of Matt at PG, Rodney at SG, Semi at SF, Jabari at PF, and Marshall at C. Only then can we achieve Nirvana.

Go big or go home, yeaaahhh!

[Kedsy]

Let me be the first math wannabe to weigh in. Let's see. Twelve players and five on the court at any time. I get 792 possible combinations, which, at 20 minutes per lineup, would take 396 games to test.

sagegrouse

But the OP said it wouldn't count unless you tested it for 3 to 5 games. Have you worked that into your analysis? Or do we need between 1,188 and 1,980 games?

[jamesfrommaiden]

We saw it against Kansas. We saw it against Arizona. I do not know why Sheed had the ball in clutch time. Both games he put the ball on the floor in an attempt to drive to the basket and both times it resulted in turnovers. Not a FTA or FGA. Why didn't JP or Hood have the ball. On top of that Sheed has been struggling a lot to find his role on the offense. I don't want Coach K to not play him, but not play him as much. I love what TT contributes to the team, but we all know he is better suited coming off the bench. I would like to see Matt get a lot more PT as well as give Andre some more run. I think Sheed will figure it out at some point, but he hasn't done it yet. In the long run I also think it would be beneficial for Matt and Andre to get as PT as they can now to be better later on. My other concern is JP. He was gassed in the 2nd half against Arizona. We all know we have to have him on the floor as much as possible, but he has to get rest along the way. I want to see more zone, but I don't expect it. A win tonight would be great to continue both the streaks. I think a win for this team would be a huge boost for the psyche of our guys.

[howardlander]

Let me be the first math wannabe to weigh in. Let's see. Twelve players and five on the court at any time. I get 792 possible combinations, which, at 20 minutes per lineup, would take 396 games to test.

sagegrouse

Huh, I get a much larger number. There are 12 choices for the first player, 11 for the second player, 10 for the third, 9 for the 4th and 8 for the fifth. So I get 95040 possible 5 player combinations (12 * 11 * 10 * 9 * 8). What did I do wrong?

Howard

[freshmanjs]

Huh, I get a much larger number. There are 12 choices for the first player, 11 for the second player, 10 for the third, 9 for the 4th and 8 for the fifth. So I get 95040 possible 5 player combinations (12 * 11 * 10 * 9 * 8). What did I do wrong?

Howard

you are multiple-counting each lineup. you want combinations, not permutations.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Huh, I get a much larger number. There are 12 choices for the first player, 11 for the second player, 10 for the third, 9 for the 4th and 8 for the fifth. So I get 95040 possible 5 player combinations (12 * 11 * 10 * 9 * 8). What did I do wrong?

Howard

Because that suggests that a line-up of Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, Parker, and Jefferson is different than a line-up of Sulaimon, Cook, Hood, Parker, and Jefferson.

[rsvman]

Because that suggests that a line-up of Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, Parker, and Jefferson is different than a line-up of Sulaimon, Cook, Hood, Parker, and Jefferson.

From math class to English class: the word "than" should be replaced by "from."

/grammar Nazi mode

[Kedsy]

I want to see more zone, but I don't expect it.

After seeing our zone against Arizona, you want more?

[Goduke2010]

We saw it against Kansas. We saw it against Arizona. I do not know why Sheed had the ball in clutch time. Both games he put the ball on the floor in an attempt to drive to the basket and both times it resulted in turnovers. Not a FTA or FGA. Why didn't JP or Hood have the ball. On top of that Sheed has been struggling a lot to find his role on the offense. I don't want Coach K to not play him, but not play him as much. I love what TT contributes to the team, but we all know he is better suited coming off the bench. I would like to see Matt get a lot more PT as well as give Andre some more run. I think Sheed will figure it out at some point, but he hasn't done it yet. In the long run I also think it would be beneficial for Matt and Andre to get as PT as they can now to be better later on. My other concern is JP. He was gassed in the 2nd half against Arizona. We all know we have to have him on the floor as much as possible, but he has to get rest along the way. I want to see more zone, but I don't expect it. A win tonight would be great to continue both the streaks. I think a win for this team would be a huge boost for the psyche of our guys.

If you mapped Sheed's PER starting with last year, I think you'd see a steady decline starting the tail end of non-conference play last year, and continuing through ACC play, the tourney, this summer with USA, and so far this Fall. The decline appears mostly due to his 2pt and 3pt shooting %.

Sheed reminds me of Singler in one respect - he easily gets down on himself, and appears to let poor shooting impact the rest of his game. I recall 2009 - 2011, when Coach K specifically called plays for Singler to get off early, to bolster his confidence. I wonder if the coaching staff is attempting the same thing with Sheed, hoping his drives will result in easy buckets or free throws.

Hard to describe 10+ months of poor performance as just a slump, as some folks on the boards have done. We need one of our 3 SGs to play well, in order to make up for the lack of post presence. I would argue that Matt Jones makes sense to get major playing time, given his potential is unknown, whereas Sheed and Dre are more of a known commodity.

[freshmanjs]

Sheed reminds me of Singler in one respect - he easily gets down on himself, and appears to let poor shooting impact the rest of his game. I recall 2009 - 2011, when Coach K specifically called plays for Singler to get off early, to bolster his confidence. I wonder if the coaching staff is attempting the same thing with Sheed, hoping his drives will result in easy buckets or free throws.

Interesting. I don't recall Singler having this issue at all. Singler always played well, even when he wasn't shooting well. The only exception I remember was when he got very worn down towards the end of his Freshman year, when he was getting beaten up in the paint all season.

[Goduke2010]

Interesting. I don't recall Singler having this issue at all. Singler always played well, even when he wasn't shooting well. The only exception I remember was when he got very worn down towards the end of his Freshman year, when he was getting beaten up in the paint all season.

Yeah, he definitely did, I saw it too many times to count. Coach K specifically mentioned trying to stoke Singler's confidence early on, to positively impact the rest of his game.

I'd wager if you looked at a per-game distribution of Singler's shooting % relative to his average, you'd see significant variance relative to other players'. Maybe someone with more time than I have could look that up. :-)

[mgtr]

I thought that the one sure thing you could say about Singler was that he always played hard.

[NSDukeFan]

Yeah, he definitely did, I saw it too many times to count. Coach K specifically mentioned trying to stoke Singler's confidence early on, to positively impact the rest of his game.

I'd wager if you looked at a per-game distribution of Singler's shooting % relative to his average, you'd see significant variance relative to other players'. Maybe someone with more time than I have could look that up. :-)

I agree with freshmanjs here. Singler had a poor senior season and may have had a great distribution in shooting % game to game but he was otherwise playing very well, which led to him being a first team all-ACC performer despite having a poor shooting year.

[sagegrouse]

Huh, I get a much larger number. There are 12 choices for the first player, 11 for the second player, 10 for the third, 9 for the 4th and 8 for the fifth. So I get 95040 possible 5 player combinations (12 * 11 * 10 * 9 * 8). What did I do wrong?

Howard

I did "12 take 5," which (I believe) is the number of possible combinations of lineups for a 12-man hoops team. That calculates as 12!/(7!x5!) and works out to be 11x9x8 = 792. Your calculation may be the number of permutations, which (again, I believe) is a different problem.

Why don't you PM if you disagree, so we don't have to bore the entire planet with our discussion?

sagegrouse

[BD80]

Because that suggests that a line-up of Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, Parker, and Jefferson is different than a line-up of Sulaimon, Cook, Hood, Parker, and Jefferson.

Can't be different. Coach K teams don't have positions.

But in theory, to fully test the permutations, Amile would have to bring the ball upcourt, and Quinn guard the post.