MBB: Duke v. Alabama Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[DeBlueDevil]

Marshall has by far the worst oRtg on the team. Whether or not it matters is another question, but there would indeed be a huge dropoff in offense.



For the season we're shooting 45.2% from three-point range, which is 13th best in the country. What would "deadly" look like in your eyes?



If Marshall was ready to contribute in the way you suggest, don't you think Coach K would already be playing him? And if he's not ready, then plugging him in for starter's minutes would almost certainly be a bad idea.

First, I respect the fact you are a stat guy but sometimes stats aren't the end all be all to sports. Just sayin'. While that stat on Marshall may be valid, the kid has barely seen the floor. I understand the "if K doesn't think he's ready" point which is fair and I'll never argue with K but I'm sure some said the same about Zoubs before K inserted him his Senior year and that seemed to work out. In the end I'd just like to see what the kid could do and how he can affect the game with some extended run.

To your second point we've made 57 3 pt attempts this year 25 of which Jabari and Hood whom would remain in the starting lineup per Cajun's theory have made. Another 11 coming from Andre whom hasn't really started this year anyway so is there really a huge difference there?!? I apologize for not saying deadly as I may have misspoken a little there. Either way the point still leans in favor of my argument.

Are you sure your just don't like Marshall? haha jk we're all on the same team here. Go Duke.

[DeBlueDevil]

First, I don't think having a 7-foot center would have stopped one single basket scored by Vermont the other day. Vermont players were either open because of bad switching on ball screens or because their ball handlers penetrated past their man and our big had to leave his man to close on the ball handler, leaving someone open for a layup. Marshall would have had to do the exact same thing Amile and Josh did, with the exact same results.

Second, Vermont got a grand total of 6 offensive rebounds, so how "vast" would the improvement have been?

Third, I have no idea what you're talking about with the "actually have a chance of getting an offensive rebound" crack. We crushed Vermont on the offensive boards, grabbing 14, which is almost 44% of available offensive rebounds. Not only that, but Amile is an excellent offensive rebounder. Last season he was Duke's leader in offensive rebounding percentage, significantly better than Mason, and if he'd played enough he would have ranked 4th in the ACC in OR%.

Finally, based on his numbers so far, Marshall isn't nearly as good a rebounder (offensive or defensive) as Amile is. Frankly, his defensive rebounding percentage (10.3%) is not only worse than Amile's (17.8%), it's also worse than Rasheed's (12.1%) and Andre's (11.2%). This is not to bust on Marshall, but just to say your underlying assumptions are flawed and thus your conclusions are probably incorrect.

I agree that having a 7 footer play in the defense we are currently using probably wouldn't make much of a difference but if we play off a little more like we did in 2010 I think it could work. And again not to argue, I understand your point of obviously there's some reason the kid isn't on the floor but to base the argument of Amile being a better rebounder than Marshall all on stats when the kid barely has played I don't think is fair. There was a time when K praised Marshall. I won't disagree that there probably is a good reason for his lack of PT but I'd like to see if could make a difference. Just seems if we're struggling with interior D and post presence and we have a athletic 7 footer on the team whom we recruited with expectations of production, why not insert him? It's not like we're saying put Todd in. No offense to Todd of course.

I mean if it were similar to the case with Murphy where he's had some chances and tended to look overwhelmed and lost out there then I wouldn't argue the point so much but I just can't say the same for Marshall outside of health issues.

[bbosbbos]

When our opponent attacked our rim easily in the last two games, I saw a lot of problem in defense and reminded me of Lehigh game. To address this problem, you guys have discussed a lot in starters or communication or...

I understand it is hard to improve D when frosh is in the starting line, it takes time. But, guys, our O is outstanding. Can we improve our O efficiency to another level to hedge D? Andre's 3 and improving RS's lay up may help.

[CajunDevil]

Kedsy - My suggestion of starting Cook, Hood, Parker, Jefferson and Plumlee was conditioned on Duke playing less pressure defense. In such a case, then the presence of an actual shotblocker would make a huge difference. (See 2010)

My crack at offensive rebounding wasn't pointed to the Vermont game necessarily but our season, generally.

Kedsy, who would you start, and why?

[Kedsy]

First, I respect the fact you are a stat guy but sometimes stats aren't the end all be all to sports. Just sayin'. While that stat on Marshall may be valid, the kid has barely seen the floor. I understand the "if K doesn't think he's ready" point which is fair and I'll never argue with K but I'm sure some said the same about Zoubs before K inserted him his Senior year and that seemed to work out. In the end I'd just like to see what the kid could do and how he can affect the game with some extended run.

I like Marshall a lot. But honestly, when I see him out there with my eyes, I don't get the impression that he'd be better than Amile right now, quite the contrary. Marshall doesn't look ready to me. The fact that the numbers support what my eyes are seeing gives me confidence that I'm seeing things correctly.

As far as Brian Zoubek, at the time I argued in his favor against many naysayers. He looked like he got it to me, and his per-minute and tempo-free numbers were terrific, really about the same before and after K "inserted" him. However, I don't think he's a good analog to Marshall, at least not yet. Z played more than 15 minutes per game before Coach K put him in the starting lineup. He was a major part of the rotation. Marshall isn't there yet.

[johnb]

No one looked great on defense because, while we play man-to-man, it's a highly interdependent man-to-man, and if any one component part gets messed up, the entire thing falls apart. Aggressive perimeter defense is dependent on guys switching around in the paint, etc, not unlike the reality that a completed pass in football is often less the responsibility of the cornerback than a defensive line that doesn't apply adequate pressure.

Sure seems like we are beating a dead horse...

Let's see how Bama goes; I'll be interested in seeing what it's like for two football schools to go after it in basketball.

[Kedsy]

Kedsy - My suggestion of starting Cook, Hood, Parker, Jefferson and Plumlee was conditioned on Duke playing less pressure defense. In such a case, then the presence of an actual shotblocker would make a huge difference. (See 2010)

My crack at offensive rebounding wasn't pointed to the Vermont game necessarily but our season, generally.

Kedsy, who would you start, and why?

In 2010, Brian Zoubek got 0.8 blocks a game. In fact, nobody on that team averaged as much as a block per game. For comparison, Jabari is currently averaging 1.8 bpg. So the presence of "an actual shotblocker" had nothing to do with the success of the 2010 team. What that team did really well on defense was defend ball screens and rotate properly. But not because they were big bodies, but because they understood Coach K's defensive concepts and executed them well. If Marshall was within miles of being a defensive equal to Brian Zoubek, he'd be in the rotation already. But he isn't, so putting him in would probably make very little difference at all, and would most probably make things worse.

As for offensive rebounding, when we already have the #1 offense in the country, why would we worry about offense at all? Not to mention that the offensive downgrade from Rasheed to Marshall would more than make up for any upgrade we'd get from offensive rebounding.

To answer your last question, at the moment I'd leave the starting lineup the way it is. Quinn/Rasheed/Rodney/Jabari are our best players and Amile is our best center. Andre would be first off the bench.

[slower]

And not that Marshall is "the landlord" down there.

Perhaps Marshall can be "The Maintenance Man."

[subzero02]

Don't we owe Anthony Grant one? Wasn't he the coach of VCU in 2008? Or am I confused once again?

He was the coach there in 2008 but the year you are thinking of is 2007... We lost to wvu in the 2008 tourney... Anthony Grant had his bags packed to replace Donovan at UF after Billy had signed on to become the coach of the Orlando Magic. After Donovan backed out of the Magic deal, Grant eventually landed at Bama.

[DukieInBrasil]

First, I respect the fact you are a stat guy but sometimes stats aren't the end all be all to sports. Just sayin'. While that stat on Marshall may be valid, the kid has barely seen the floor. I understand the "if K doesn't think he's ready" point which is fair and I'll never argue with K but I'm sure some said the same about Zoubs before K inserted him his Senior year and that seemed to work out. In the end I'd just like to see what the kid could do and how he can affect the game with some extended run.

To your second point we've made 57 3 pt attempts this year 25 of which Jabari and Hood whom would remain in the starting lineup per Cajun's theory have made. Another 11 coming from Andre whom hasn't really started this year anyway so is there really a huge difference there?!? I apologize for not saying deadly as I may have misspoken a little there. Either way the point still leans in favor of my argument.

Are you sure your just don't like Marshall? haha jk we're all on the same team here. Go Duke.

No, it doesn't. We have been a very good 3FG shooting team this year, we have 6 guys shooting 33% or better from 3, Quinn shooting at 32% and Murphy shooting 1-5 (20%). As you said, Parker and Hood have been lighting it up, but there are 4 (or 5) other guys making 3s at a good clip too.
Your point about Zoubek is also flawed in that he was playing a lot his Sr. year prior to his awakening, and had played quite a bit in the 3 years prior to that. None of that is true for Marshall, although hopefully he will get a chance to make both those happen in the future, maybe even starting withe game vs. Alabama. I too would like to see MP3 play some more, but the guy has made 2 career FGs (2-11 FGs) and has yet to make a FT (0-8). He has yet to show very much rebounding skill either. He's got a lot of energy and a nice athletic foundation, but K probably has a pretty good grip on what he's ready for. It seems to me that he should at least get on the floor in every game, just so that he can get that deer-in-headlights out of his system, but i'm not ready to say he should start or even be a 15-20 mpg player yet either.

[MChambers]

He was the coach there in 2008 but the year you are thinking of is 2007... We lost to wvu in the 2008 tourney... Anthony Grant had his bags packed to replace Donovan at UF after Billy had signed on to become the coach of the Orlando Magic. After Donovan backed out of the Magic deal, Grant eventually landed at Bama.

So I was confused, as often is the case. If I had thought a little harder, I would have realized it was Jon Scheyer's freshman year, and then that it was 2007.

[DeBlueDevil]

No, it doesn't. We have been a very good 3FG shooting team this year, we have 6 guys shooting 33% or better from 3, Quinn shooting at 32% and Murphy shooting 1-5 (20%). As you said, Parker and Hood have been lighting it up, but there are 4 (or 5) other guys making 3s at a good clip too.
Your point about Zoubek is also flawed in that he was playing a lot his Sr. year prior to his awakening, and had played quite a bit in the 3 years prior to that. None of that is true for Marshall, although hopefully he will get a chance to make both those happen in the future, maybe even starting withe game vs. Alabama. I too would like to see MP3 play some more, but the guy has made 2 career FGs (2-11 FGs) and has yet to make a FT (0-8). He has yet to show very much rebounding skill either. He's got a lot of energy and a nice athletic foundation, but K probably has a pretty good grip on what he's ready for. It seems to me that he should at least get on the floor in every game, just so that he can get that deer-in-headlights out of his system, but i'm not ready to say he should start or even be a 15-20 mpg player yet either.

Perhaps you were mistaken of what my point was. My point was that the offense wouldn't suffer a huge drop off if Marshall was inserted. Maybe the 3 point shooting but I was pointing out that even that wouldn't be that bad since Jabari and Rodney have been our best 3 pt shooters thus far. Thus, the fact that Jabari and hood would still be on the court leans in favor of my argument that the offense wouldn't suffer too badly.

[azzefkram]

In 2010, Brian Zoubek got 0.8 blocks a game. In fact, nobody on that team averaged as much as a block per game. For comparison, Jabari is currently averaging 1.8 bpg. So the presence of "an actual shotblocker" had nothing to do with the success of the 2010 team. What that team did really well on defense was defend ball screens and rotate properly. But not because they were big bodies, but because they understood Coach K's defensive concepts and executed them well. If Marshall was within miles of being a defensive equal to Brian Zoubek, he'd be in the rotation already. But he isn't, so putting him in would probably make very little difference at all, and would most probably make things worse.

As for offensive rebounding, when we already have the #1 offense in the country, why would we worry about offense at all? Not to mention that the offensive downgrade from Rasheed to Marshall would more than make up for any upgrade we'd get from offensive rebounding.

To answer your last question, at the moment I'd leave the starting lineup the way it is. Quinn/Rasheed/Rodney/Jabari are our best players and Amile is our best center. Andre would be first off the bench.

In 2010 we ranked 34th in blocks. Today we are 99th. While I agree that 2010's defense owed a lot to execution, I think you are minimizing the role blocks played in 2010. I agree that Marshall isn't within the same time zone of Zoub's defensively, but neither are any of the players he'd be replacing. Marshall is 7th in dRtg, 6th in DRB% and 1st in block%. Marshall is definitely a project but when he's in there he blocks or alters shots. He's rebounding should be better given his size. Should he be starting? Nope but he shouldn't be getting DNPs either.

Not concerned at all about offensive rebounding.

I like your starting 5 and I like Andre first off the bench as long as it's not for Amile. The Q/R/R/J/Dre line-up is almost a 4 guard line-up.

[Kedsy]

Perhaps you were mistaken of what my point was. My point was that the offense wouldn't suffer a huge drop off if Marshall was inserted. Maybe the 3 point shooting but I was pointing out that even that wouldn't be that bad since Jabari and Rodney have been our best 3 pt shooters thus far. Thus, the fact that Jabari and hood would still be on the court leans in favor of my argument that the offense wouldn't suffer too badly.

Maybe, maybe not. The whole offensive dynamic would change if you inserted a non-offensive-minded big man for a penetrating guard. Neither Marshall nor Amile would leave the paint except to set screens, and this would allow the opponent to clog the lane without doubling Rodney and Jabari, leaving the opposing perimeter players available to guard the three more closely. With the lane packed more tightly, Amile becomes much less of a weapon, too. So conceivably we'd be left with two big guys who can't do much damage inside and the lane clogged with big guys, hindering Quinn, Jabari, and Rodney from getting to the rim and leaving us passing it around the perimeter until someone takes an out-of-rhythm shot.

Put another way, look how out-of-synch we've seemed when the opponent goes zone. With Marshall and Amile both in the game we'd be similarly ineffective in a man-to-man setting, and all of a sudden our #1 offense isn't so good.

Our defense would have to get worlds better in that scenario to make up for the offensive dropoff, and we have no evidence inserting Marshall into the lineup would actually help our D at all. To me, this idea has low upside and big downside, exactly the opposite of what I'd want if I were shaking things up.

[CDu]

Maybe, maybe not. The whole offensive dynamic would change if you inserted a non-offensive-minded big man for a penetrating guard. Neither Marshall nor Amile would leave the paint except to set screens, and this would allow the opponent to clog the lane without doubling Rodney and Jabari, leaving the opposing perimeter players available to guard the three more closely. With the lane packed more tightly, Amile becomes much less of a weapon, too. So conceivably we'd be left with two big guys who can't do much damage inside and the lane clogged with big guys, hindering Quinn, Jabari, and Rodney from getting to the rim and leaving us passing it around the perimeter until someone takes an out-of-rhythm shot.

Put another way, look how out-of-synch we've seemed when the opponent goes zone. With Marshall and Amile both in the game we'd be similarly ineffective in a man-to-man setting, and all of a sudden our #1 offense isn't so good.

Our defense would have to get worlds better in that scenario to make up for the offensive dropoff, and we have no evidence inserting Marshall into the lineup would actually help our D at all. To me, this idea has low upside and big downside, exactly the opposite of what I'd want if I were shaking things up.

I tend to agree. If Plumlee sees more time, it would be at the expense of Jefferson, Hairston, Ojeleye, and perhaps Dawkins/Sulaimon (by bumping Hood back to SF). We aren't going to replace Sulaimon with Plumlee. That would be a nightmare offensively.

[Kedsy]

In 2010 we ranked 34th in blocks. Today we are 99th.

Well, they were ranked so high in blocks because they played the most games. According to statsheet.com, in 2010 we were 87th in blocks per game and 80th in block percentage, while this season we're 152nd in blocks per game and 169th in block pct. However, this might be a situation where the ordinal rank is misleading. In 2010 we blocked 4.1 shots per game. This year, we've blocked 3.8 shots per game. Over six games, that's a difference of only 2 blocks for the season so far, which (a) is small enough that it's difficult to say there's any significant statistical difference; and (b) doesn't sound like too much of an increased intimidation factor.

[moonpie23]

look…i'm still feeling guilty about how badly i dissed Zoubs until his Md breakout game…..I cringed every time he came on the floor…so much for that!!


i'm hoping that the light will come on for marshall...

[CajunDevil]

Well, they were ranked so high in blocks because they played the most games. According to statsheet.com, in 2010 we were 87th in blocks per game and 80th in block percentage, while this season we're 152nd in blocks per game and 169th in block pct. However, this might be a situation where the ordinal rank is misleading. In 2010 we blocked 4.1 shots per game. This year, we've blocked 3.8 shots per game. Over six games, that's a difference of only 2 blocks for the season so far, which (a) is small enough that it's difficult to say there's any significant statistical difference; and (b) doesn't sound like too much of an increased intimidation factor.

But, don't you think that the early games against lesser competition would naturally inflate a team's early season block averages vs. total year block averages? So, as the year goes on the bpg goes down... I'm too lazy to look up the stats but that seems to make sense...

[Henderson]

Zoubs/Marshall: I'm only speculating here, but I'm guessing MP3 isn't showing it in practice. OTOH, I'm guessing Zoubs earned his minutes in practice, then improved in games over time. Marshall looks lost in games, but if he were practicing better, I'll bet he'd be playing more minutes.

MTM Defense: It's our bread and butter, as everyone knows. But I remember Duke teams that went zone situationally some years ago. MTM works fine with pressure on the ball (risking an offensive player getting past his man off the dribble or a ball screen), but only if the defensive guys are coordinating their efforts, meaning most importantly they must communicate well. K lambasted his players after the Vermont game for failing to communicate, as though they thought they didn't need to against a team like Vermont. I think that's what K was talking about when he said his players weren't respecting Vermont or the game of basketball.

I like our current starting 5, and I hope they continue to start so they can gel together. But they need to play better, not be replaced. They have the skills.

[BD80]

First, I respect the fact you are a stat guy but sometimes stats aren't the end all be all to sports. Just sayin'. ...

Kedsy has stats that prove the contrary ...