Interesting Quotes and Questions re Okafor and Jones

[Kedsy]

Sorry if you've already posted this as part of the theory, but what is the (theoretical) cause of the up/down cycles?

Well, obviously I noted the pattern first and then created the theory, but in theory once we have a down year for whatever reason (in 1983 it was because Bill Foster left the cupboard bare and essentially all we had were freshmen, in 1995 it was due to Coach K's injury, and in 2007 again it was because we had the youngest Duke team since 1983), it takes a couple years before the team "learns how to win," and the institutional memory can carry us forward. Why a nine year up cycle? I have no idea really, but perhaps that does have to do with recruiting. I imagine Coach K plans his recruiting based on what veterans he expects to have available. But after doing this for a certain period of time, at some point the roster gets too full to recruit for a year or two, and when the players who would have been recruited during those crowded years would have been juniors and seniors, the thing falls in upon itself and the dreaded down year occurs.

Or not. Really I just noticed the pattern and conjectured from there.

[Kedsy]

Not disagreeing with your "cycles" argument, but using my "high" vs. "extremely high" time periods, this is what I am basing my argument on:

1985-1993 Duke had Johnny Dawkins, Danny Ferry, and Christian Laettner win NPOY, with Grant Hill winning an ACC POY

1999-2005 Duke had Brand, Battier, Williams, and Redick win NPOY, with Carawell winning ACC POY, and S. Williams winning NDPOY

In between those times, there is very little individual national recognition. Also, during those (relatively) down times, with the exception of the 2010 Title, the team does not meet the lofty standards K has set for the school and its (sometimes irrational) fans.

Is that coincidence? I am arguing that, yes, it has to do with the type of recruit we bring in.

Again, I think you're putting the cart before the horse. The recruits in your "extremely high" period weren't ranked any higher than the ones in the "high" periods. If the #11 recruit in 2002 becomes national player of the year but the #10 recruit in 2006 doesn't come close and the #13 recruit in 2005 loses his place in the rotation late in his senior year, in what way was our recruiting better when we took the #11 recruit? Some players develop better than others. But there's no way to know which ones will and which ones won't when you're recruiting them.

Becoming NPOY as a senior in college is not the same as being a good recruit as a senior in high school.

[Faison1]

Grant was ACC POY in 1994, a year when Duke went to the national title game. Wouldn't that be one of the high-performance years?

I admit that it gets confusing when trying to blend recruiting classes with actual basketball seasons.

After Grant's national title run in 1994, there was a three year period where Duke either didn't make the tournament, or was bounced earlier than what the public expected. The 1997-1998 season was closer to return of form where Duke almost beat eventual national champs Kentucky in the Elite-8.

[Duvall]

I admit that it gets confusing when trying to blend recruiting classes with actual basketball seasons.

After Grant's national title run in 1994, there was a three year period where Duke either didn't make the tournament, or was bounced earlier than what the public expected. The 1997-1998 season was closer to return of form where Duke almost beat eventual national champs Kentucky in the Elite-8.

Sure, but again Duke was still landing highly-rated players during that stretch - Collins, Newton, Beard, Wojciechowski, Price. They just didn't turn out to be as good as the highly-rated players from before and after.

[ricks68]

Your opinion only. Duke football has a LONG way to go before supplanting basketball, at least on this board. Even on an off day for the basketball team, they are my primary interest.

I can tell you from personal experience, that even with our past football successes during the 60's, bball was #1.

ricks