Thursday night: Clemson or Georgia Tech

[Olympic Fan]

I had an interesting conversation with another Duke fan about Thursday night's ESPN game: Georgia Tech at Clemson.

My first reaction was to pull for Clemson because that opens up the path to Duke for the ACC title game. It's the only outside help Duke needs ... if Clemson hands Ga Tech their third ACC loss, all Duke has to do to play in Charlotte is win out. It doesn't matter what anybody does. On the other hand, if Georgia Tech beats Clemson, the Jackets finish 6-2 in the ACC and there is no way Duke can play in the title game (in a three-way tie with Ga Tech, Duke and Va Tech, Va Tech wins the tiebreaker for a better divisional record; Duke loses the head-to-head with Georgia Tech; Duke wins the head-to-head with VPI ... Miami would be out with their third ACC loss to Duke).

But my friends suggested that it would be better for the program to finish 10-2 and NOT play in the title game.

His point was that as improved as Duke has been, the Devils are not yet on a level to compete with FSU (neither is anybody else in the ACC this year). The irony is that Duke would be better off finishing 10-2 and earning a share of the Division title (the tiebreaker is only to determine the team in the title game) than to finish 10-2 then get whipped by FSU in Charlotte by 40 points.

It would mean a better bowl too -- at 10-2, Duke probably gets Atlanta or Orlando. At 10-3, coming off a bad loss to FSU, very likely Duke drops to the Sun Bowl.

Of course, if you think Duke can beat FSU or even play them close, you don't buy this argument. And for it to matter, Duke still has to win its final three regular season games, which is no lock.

Still, when thinking about Thursday's game, a Georgia Tech win in Death Valley -- as unlikely as that is -- might not be the worst thing for Duke football.

[-jk]

Good question!

If we win out, I'll take whatever comes our way with a grin on my face.

But I suspect a tie for Div Championship and not getting blown out by fsu would be marginally better. I'd like to be reasonably healthy for the bowl game.

-jk

[Dev11]

More games, more exposure, more experience, more sanctioned practice time. Go Tigers!

[BigWayne]

The other factor is the BCS berths. If Clemson and FSU win out from here until bowl slot musical chairs gets played, FSU is in the BCS title game and Clemson is probably in the Orange Bowl, moving everybody else up a slot in the ACC contracted bowls. Clemson loses to GT and there is a chance the Orange Bowl grabs Oregon and a B12 team. Of course, a two loss Clemson still has a good chance of being in the Orange Bowl due to the log jam of SEC teams in the BCS top 14.

[matt1]

The other factor is the BCS berths. If Clemson and FSU win out from here until bowl slot musical chairs gets played, FSU is in the BCS title game and Clemson is probably in the Orange Bowl, moving everybody else up a slot in the ACC contracted bowls. Clemson loses to GT and there is a chance the Orange Bowl grabs Oregon and a B12 team. Of course, a two loss Clemson still has a good chance of being in the Orange Bowl due to the log jam of SEC teams in the BCS top 14.

What if Clemson loses to GT AND South Carolina, while we win out? With FSU in the title game, the Orange Bowl would need a replacement and would likely take an ACC team. Would we go to the Orange Bowl in this scenario?

[Wander]

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

Cutcliffe came to Duke to "win championships." Not to "win championships, except let's root to dodge the chance to win championships in some years because we can't beat the teams we might face."

FSU might be so good that we would lose by 50 (BC lost by 14, by the way), but the idea that the margin between FSU and Duke would cause injuries to half of Duke's roster such that we lose our bowl game is ridiculous. Nobody's going to think poorly of Duke for losing by a lot to FSU anyway, and even just being relatively competitive with them would probably earn us a lot of accolades. And we'd get a ton of positive press in the week leading up the game no matter what happens.

[brevity]

It would mean a better bowl too -- at 10-2, Duke probably gets Atlanta or Orlando. At 10-3, coming off a bad loss to FSU, very likely Duke drops to the Sun Bowl.

This is the bottom line. Even if FSU beats Duke in a close game, 10-3 is less appealing (to bowls) than 10-2.

Clemson is enjoying the same mentality: short of being undefeated, going 11-1 and NOT playing in the ACC championship is the best thing that could happen to them.

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

Cutcliffe came to Duke to "win championships." Not to "win championships, except let's root to dodge the chance to win championships in some years because we can't beat the teams we might face."

FSU might be so good that we would lose by 50 (BC lost by 14, by the way), but the idea that the margin between FSU and Duke would cause injuries to half of Duke's roster such that we lose our bowl game is ridiculous. Nobody's going to think poorly of Duke for losing by a lot to FSU anyway, and even just being relatively competitive with them would probably earn us a lot of accolades. And we'd get a ton of positive press in the week leading up the game no matter what happens.

You are correct, strictly speaking, but we are not in the coach's position. We're not even in Duke's position here. This thread is about Clemson-GT, a game over which Duke has no control. There's a Duke upside if Clemson wins, and a different Duke upside if GT wins.

[OldPhiKap]

Go Clemson. No question.

[ForkFondler]

You are correct, strictly speaking, but we are not in the coach's position. We're not even in Duke's position here. This thread is about Clemson-GT, a game over which Duke has no control. There's a Duke upside if Clemson wins, and a different Duke upside if GT wins.

Yes, it's really about short-term upside vs long-term upside. From a program development standpoint, 11-2 would be far better than finishing with two blowout losses.

We can all agree that getting to 10-2 would be fantastic. Maybe that's more likely with an ACCCG carrot dangling.

[Reilly]

I'm having a hard time buying the better bowl aspect of the chicken scenario.

The way things should be: Clemson beats GT, Duke wins out, Duke beats FSU, Duke to Orange Bowl (we've been before; time to come back). [Note to students: get those oranges out and syringes for filling and enjoy this last home game -- show everybody where we intend to go.]

Way things might be if FSU can squeak past us (and Clemson beats GT and So Car): FSU to nat'l champ game, Clemson to Orange, and then that leaves 10-3 Duke to Atlanta, Orlando or Sun ... w/ maybe 9-3 VT, 9-3 Miami and 7-5 GT our as competition.

Chicken scenario (10-2): FSU to nat'l champ game; Clemson may not get Orange due to GT loss, we're at 10-2, GT is at 8-5 (maybe 9-4 if they beat Clemson and UGA and lose to FSU), VT may still be 9-3, Miami 9-3 ... basically, you have the chance of Clemson falling down to crash our semi-elite bowl hopes, and GT rising from the bottom to snatch our semi-elite bowl hopes ...

In all scenarios, if a bowl wants a 9-3 VT team over a 10-2 or 10-3 Duke team, the bowl will get VT ... it's not like 1 less Duke loss is going to make the Chik-Fil-A bowl turn down a bunch of Hokies on New Year's Eve in Atlanta ...

Most of all, we're here to win championships. People will laugh. We hope they do. It adds fuel to the fire. Go Duke. Go Tigahs.

[killerleft]

While some of you can't do anything but worry about what bowl we might go to, I can't get past the amazing story it would be if our Blue Devils, six years away from being the laughingstock of college football, actually played for the ACC Football Championship. A week less than six years after the hiring of David Cutcliffe. Who said he wanted to compete for championships at Duke, and everybody tried to keep a straight face.

Even with a Clemson win, we're a longshot to make it. Even with a big Duke win over Miami, the chances aren't real good. That's when the enormity of it will hit home, and the opponents are only a part of the fight. Wake is always a tough out. How tough would it be to finish the year with a win over UNC, beneficiary of the cheatin' Carolina Way? Pretty tough. They're getting better all the time. Finishing with a 10-2 record to get to the ACC Championship game would be worth more than any bowl to me.

Clemson has to win for these games to be so important, so I say...

Go Tigers!

[Wander]

There's a Duke upside if Clemson wins, and a different Duke upside if GT wins.

There's no Duke upside to GT winning. It would be like a bubble team rooting for upsets in conference tournaments so that they get left out on selection sunday because they believe making the NIT final four is better than losing in the first round of the NCAAs.

[Acymetric]

Drops us to the Sun Bowl? I can't say it won't happen but it seems far from a certainty or even a likelihood to me. Nobody is going to put Duke down for losing to FSU for any fashion (how could they) and you play the games for a reason. For a coach selling the rebuilding/"we are a program" pitch playing in the conference championship is pure gold. I won't accept any arguments to the contrary, go Clemson and more importantly GO DUKE!

[BigWayne]

What if Clemson loses to GT AND South Carolina, while we win out? With FSU in the title game, the Orange Bowl would need a replacement and would likely take an ACC team. Would we go to the Orange Bowl in this scenario?

Extremely unlikely. We would have to rise up to the top 14 in the BCS rankings. We don't have a chance to beat anyone strong enough to push us up that far.

[budwom]

I see both sides of the argument. A bunch of friends and I have kicked this around, and the consensus seems to be take on FSU if we can.
But I admit, I sort of liked the notion of winning out (10-2), GT beats Clemmons, and we can claim that FSU is pretty damned lucky they
don't have to face us in the championship game...but this would entail pulling for dirtbag Paul Johnson, an odious thought to be sure.

I'm just a tad worried that our late season momentum and psyche could be damaged by an FSU thrashing....

All the mootest of moot right now...if we don't get better QB play, we aren't beating Miami or unc...

[Reilly]

... I'm just a tad worried that our late season momentum and psyche could be damaged by an FSU thrashing...

I'm not. At all. Look at Cut's bowl record. Look at how prepared Duke was -- physically and emotionally -- for the bowl game last year, even though riding a 4-game losing streak going into the bowl (including two beatdowns). Cut keeps talking about the process. Everything has a reason. Everything is analyzed. Everything is thoughtfully prepared for. And you work like hell every day. If you lose big in one game, all of that preparation and work and psychological toughness does not go out the window. You get up and win the next day.

[Dev11]

I'm not. At all. Look at Cut's bowl record. Look at how prepared Duke was -- physically and emotionally -- for the bowl game last year, even though riding a 4-game losing streak going into the bowl (including two beatdowns). Cut keeps talking about the process. Everything has a reason. Everything is analyzed. Everything is thoughtfully prepared for. And you work like hell every day. If you lose big in one game, all of that preparation and work and psychological toughness does not go out the window. You get up and win the next day.

Yeah, you know what kills momentum (if it exists at all) pretty thoroughly? 3 weeks off, which is what we would get between the ACCCG and whatever bowl game we end up in. However we finish against UNC or FSU (and I hope we do get to play FSU) will have basically no bearing on how we play against Vanderbilt or whomever in December.